Wednesday, January 1, 2014

1/1/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Happy New Year!  Here's wishing everyone the very best of all things throughout the next twelve months.  And here's hoping that today's Late Pick Four Play at Santa Anita gets us off on the right foot towards a year of recording our results in black ink rather than red.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Ricspretentiousgal (Morning Line 5-2)
# 7 Tayrona (ML 9-2)
# 8 Boller Bomb (ML 4-1)

C’s

None

Ricspretentiousgal has two wins in his last four starts; both victories coming on two turn events on the grass, as well as against slightly classier stock.  Boller Bomb is getting some class relief, having won at this level four back, and then competing against Allowance company thereafter.  Note that Boller Bomb is two-for-four (with a Place) on the Santa Anita turf course, while Ricspretentiousgal is winless in four tries.  Tayrona won at this level over this track two starts back, and then took the Place against Allowance company.

RACE 7 - [S](F) Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Glance's Rule (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 3 Q'Viva (ML 12-1)
# 5 Betty Bing Bing (ML 7-2)
# 9 Exclusive Girl (ML 6-1)

Betty Bing Bing is the Morning Line Favorite, and she looks rather vulnerable in that role.  She had some trouble her last time out, but nothing insurmountable; and her workouts suggest that she prefers the artificial surfaces to today's real dirt.  Still, have to respect because of the initial effort and the class drop.

Glance's Rule is trained by Robertino Diodoro, who does quite well with Maidens making their second start, as well as with runners competing in Maiden Claiming events (.21 Winning Percentage in both categories).  Q'Viva and Exclusive Girl are first time starters from sires whose progeny tend to be successful their first time out.

RACE 8 - (F) The Blue Norther $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Full Ransom (ML 5-2)

C’s

# 6 Sushi Empire (ML 7-2)
# 7 Rever de Vous (ML 6-1)

Had she not been scratched, # 1 Famous Alice (ML 3-1) would have been an "A" selection.

Full Ransom is a Graded Stakes winner on the turf, as well as being two-for-two when running on some California grass.  Sushi Empire is still a maiden, but she did take the Show just a length and a half behind Full Ransom in that Grade 3 event.  Rever de Vous tries the grass for the first time as well as adding blinkers; not sure how well she'll respond to either, but she warrants consideration based upon the Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer / Jockey Rafael Bejarano tandem (the duo has a .30 Winning Percentage over the past twenty-four months).

RACE 9 - Md $40k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Grand Humor (ML 7-2)
# 10 Apache Ambush (ML 4-1)

C’s

# 1 Dynamite Wind (ML 30-1)
# 2 Second Proposal (ML 4-1)
# 3 Goyan (ML 10-1)
# 4 Qatar's Pearl (ML 6-1)
# 5 Mateo (ML 30-1)
# 6 Alpha Bullet (ML 4-1)
# 8 Stauffenberg (ML 20-1)
# 9 Through My Eyes (ML 4-1)

Grand Humor is a first time gelding (hence the long layoff) with the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field.  # 10 Apache Ambush has been working well over this main track; indeed, his best career Beyer Speed Figure came in his one race over this dirt track.  Using all others as "C" contenders, as I can see this event breaking down into a chaos race.

Playing the above using our usual Crist-style tickets (All "A's" for a buck; "A's" with a "C" for fifty cents) gives us a total investment of $33.00.  Having single "A's" in half the legs really cuts down on costs; we'll see later how well it does at putting money in our pockets.

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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