9/30/18 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results

Race 6 - # 8 I Love Romance (Final Odds 2.50) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - # 2 Tribal War Chant (3.20) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 1 Shot of a Lifetime (7.60) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 1 Squidward (2.80*) - "A" Selection

Race 10 - # 8 Sparkle Shine (7.30) - "C" Selection

Race 11 - # 1 Gurnick (4.60) - "C" Selection

The fourth leg of the sequence, Race 9, saw # 10 One Son of a Chief (28.90), one of my "B" Selections for that event, take the field from gate to nearly the wire, missing victory by just a neck.  Had One Son of a Chief been able to hold on 'til the end, the resulting payouts would have been even more interesting than that which you see below.  Of course, it would have had no effect on my bankroll, as neither of the final two winners in the sequence were to be found on my main ticket, thus making Sunday a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Pick Six sequence of  8 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 8 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $28,073.80 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/30/18 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview

It's closing day for the Summer meet at Golden Gate Fields, so everything must go, including the $29k currently sitting in the Jackpot Pick Six pool.  So with that as backdrop let's get to it, as I take a run at The Golden Pick Six at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 I Love Romance (Morning Line 2-1)

B’s

# 7 Night of Idiots (ML 7-5)

C's

# 1 I'm Not Fancy (ML 8-1)
# 2 Well Spoken Lady (ML 12-1)
# 3 Golden Sale (ML 6-1)
# 4 Warrior Mom (ML 20-1)
# 5 Rossmoor Way (ML 20-1)
# 6 Amba (ML 10-1)

Note that this is a genuine N2L, as all entrants have visited the Winner's Circle just once in their respective careers; with the exception of Warrior Mom, who is still a Maiden, with a career record of zero for twelve.

I Love Romance took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit on the synthetic main track.  Night of Idiots could improve with the cutback in distance.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 King Atahualpa (ML 9-5)

B's

# 2 Tribal War Chant (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Awesome Ain't Easy (ML 6-1)
# 3 Unbridled's Skye (ML 15-1)
# 4 Midnight in Maui (ML 15-1)
# 6 Punaluu (ML 7-2)
# 7 Beer Slinger (ML 15-1)
# 8 Legendary Night (ML 3-1)

King Atahualpa took the Place at this class level last time out in his debut.  Tribal War Chant has been working well over this main track, suggesting that his effort in his debut at Del Mar last time out is not indicative of his true talent level.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Tap Fever (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Shot of a Lifetime (ML 6-1)
# 2 King Eddie (ML 5-2)
# 3 Write Me a Song (ML 10-1)
# 8 Crownethorp (ML 9-5)

C's

# 4 I'm an Eight (ML 10-1)
# 5 Zucchini (ML 20-1)
# 6 Pepperino (ML 20-1)

Like Race 6 above this is pure N2L contest, in that all runners have gotten their picture taken after a race just once in their careers.

Tap Fever drops in for a tag for the first time in his career, and Tap Fever looks classy enough to handle this level of competition.  Crownethorp and Shot of a Lifetime have filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level in each of their last two tries.  In a separate contest, King Eddie and Write Me a Song filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level in a sprint over the main track.  The rest of the field comprise the backup "C" Selections.

RACE 9 - Clm $20k N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Squidward (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 6 Junior G Man (ML 9-2)
# 10 One Son of a Chief (ML 20-1)

C's

# 2 Manila Mischief (ML 10-1)
# 3 Kawara (Brz) (ML 7-2)
# 4 Monsajem Pervade (ML 10-1)
# 5 It's The Ice (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 7 Tiz Titus (ML 6-1)
# 8 Uninvited (ML 20-1)
# 9 Journey to Run (ML 10-1)

For some reason, my Past Performances give this as an N2L rather than an N2X.  But as can be seen by looking at the entrants career Win totals, or glancing at the full conditions, this is actually an N2X, as Maiden, Claiming, and Starter Races for $16k or less are not considered when computing runners' Win totals.  So the N2L may have been a typo.

If Squidward is healthy, he wins here easily.  But there is concern here, as Squidward is returning from a thirteen month vacation only to be dropped in for a tag for the first time in his career.  You have to figure that Squidward isn't currently as good as he once was; otherwise his connections wouldn't be offering him for sale.  But the question is, just how good does Squidward have to be to win here?  It's a tough call, but I think Squidward is good enough to stand a reasonable chance of winning today.

Junior G Man and One Son of a Chief filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - (F) Clm $6.25k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Private Terrace (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 7 Euphemistic (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Life No Parole (ML 20-1)
# 2 Flika (ML 15-1)
# 3 Warrens Lil Margie (ML 8-1)
# 4 Warrens Goldnugget (ML 9-2)
# 5 Reverchon (ML 12-1)
# 8 Sparkle Shine (ML 4-1)
# 9 Sunset City (ML 20-1)

Private Terrace was victorious at this class level over this turf course at this distance last time out.  Euphemistic took the Show against classier stock last time out, and Euphemistic could improve with the cutback in distance.  Everyone else is on board as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 11 - Clm $4k B - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Invertigo (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Mimis Big Boy (ML 8-1)
# 5 Sizzling Eddie (ML 6-5)

C's

# 1 Gurnick (ML 4-1)
# 3 Underwrite (ML 30-1)
# 4 Sojourn (ML 15-1)
# 6 Pocket Prince (ML 10-1)
# 7 Papa Pagosa (ML 15-1)

This contest is restricted to runners which have either:

1) Not won a race since July 1, 2018; OR
2) Which have never won four races.

So as long as a runner has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race.  If a horse has four career Wins or more, then none of those Wins could have come since the end of June (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $3.5k or less don't count when computing the Win totals).  For the record Sojourn and Papa Pagosa are the only two runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.

Invertigo took the Show against more expensive stock last time out.  Mimis Big Boy took the Place at this class level last time out.  Sizzling Eddie is getting significant class relief.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P6: 8 with 5 with 7 with 1 with 6 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 7,8 with 2,5 with 1,2,3,7,8 with 1,6,10 with 6,7 with 2,5,8 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 1,2,3,4,5,6 with 5 with 7 with 1 with 6 with 8 $1.20
$0.20 P6: 8 with 1,3,4,6,7,8 with 7 with 1 with 6 with 8 $1.20
$0.20 P6: 8 with 5 with 4,5,6 with 1 with 6 with 8 $0.60
$0.20 P6: 8 with 5 with 7 with 2,3,4,5,7,8,9 with 6 with 8 $1.40
$0.20 P6: 8 with 5 with 7 with 1 with 1,2,3,4,5,8,9 with 8 $1.40
$0.20 P6: 8 with 5 with 7 with 1 with 6 with 1,3,4,6,7 $1.00

Total: $79.80

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:01 EDT / 4:01 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/29/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 1 Home Run Kitten (Final Odds 5.40) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Brahms Command (3.90) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Lady Chrome (5.10) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 5 Pure Perfection (3.80) - "A" Selection

Hopefully those of you playing with a larger budget heeded my advice in the preview and spread wider than I did in the opening leg, and made it a point to include Home Run Kitten on your main ticket.  I had excluded Home Run Kitten from my big ticket based upon his last time out over this turf course, when he had finished a full length behind # 3 Kenzou's Rhythm (18.70), who today ran dead last.  But that turned out to be a fatal error on my part, as not having Home Run Kitten on my main ticket made Saturday a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 3 / 6 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $939.65 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/29/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Opening Weekend down in Arcardia, California.  Indeed, it's Super Saturday, with a quartet of Grade 1 stakes, all in preparation for the Breeders' Cup, which is just five weeks away.  So why am I still playing Golden Gate?  Because, while I don't consider myself the superstitious type, one thing I've learned, not just in handicapping but in life in general, is that you don't mess with a streak.  So come what may, my action over the next two days will be upstate, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 7 - Clm $20k N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Defiantly (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 4 Street Moxie (ML 3-1)
# 6 Dano's Dream (ML 2-1)

C's

# 1 Home Run Kitten (ML 8-1)
# 3 Kenzou's Rhythm (ML 10-1)
# 5 Rate for Me (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 2 Crystal Dome (GB) (ML 15-1)

Defiantly is moving up in class after getting his picture taken last time out; but Defiantly's recent form shows that he fits well at this class level.  Among those dropping in class, Street Moxie looks to be  the one most likely to get to wire first.  Dano's Dream could dominate here if he can return to the form that he showed this past Spring.

I've relegated the rest of the field to backup "C" Selections; but if you have the budget for a bigger play, you may want to give serious thought to spreading much wider than I did, as this does look to be a very competitive race.

RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Candycane Kate (ML 6-1)

B's

# 3 Brahms Command (ML 4-1)
# 4 Aquina's Advice (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Respect My Candor (ML 12-1)
# 5 Moon Rocket (ML 5-2)
# 6 Sarazona Two (ML 15-1)
# 7 Bluegrass Prize (ML 6-1)
# 8 Irish Affair (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 2 Empressive Cat (ML 12-1)

Brahms Command crossed under the wire a head in front of Candycane Kate in their mutual debuts last time out; but I decided to make Candycane Kate my "A" Selection here because runners conditioned by Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer tend to improve significantly in their second career tries.

Aquina's Advice is a first time starter sired by Violence, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) Alw 4000s - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Brite Echo (ML 2-1)
# 9 Bolt Up (ML 9-5)

B’s

# 3 Victoriously Jewel (ML 12-1)
# 6 Lady Chrome (ML 8-1)
# 8 Handful of Pearls (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Pop Fizz Clink (ML 12-1)
# 2 Pulpit Gold (ML 30-1)
# 4 Norwegian Spy (ML 9-2)
# 10 Khalaya (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 5 Rossmoor Way (ML 30-1)

Note for future reference that, unlike many Starter Allowances run in California, this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry.  So any runner that has started for a claiming price of $4k or less, either this year or last, is eligible to run here.

Brite Echo and Bolt Up have taken turns defeating each other in each of their last two races; and there's just not enough to choose between the two of them to justify making one an "A" Selection over the other.

Victoriously Jewel took the show against more expensive stock last time out.  Lady Chrome defeated open claimers last time out (EDIT: sorry, should have said conditioned claimers), albeit for a different barn.  Handful of Pearls could upset if she can rate in the early going.

RACE 10 - (F) Clm $20k N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Pure Perfection (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Our Renee (ML 8-1)
# 10 Shari (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Sing in the Wind (ML 20-1)
# 3 Madame Warrior (ML 8-1)
# 4 Miss Shirley C (ML 4-1)
# 6 Star Dreamin (ML 5-1)
# 7 Girlsintheoffice (ML 20-1)
# 8 Christiana's Song (ML 3-1)
# 9 Red Glitter (ML 15-1)

Pure Perfection enters this contest with a three race winning streak, the most recent coming over this main track against open claimers.  Our Renee could improve with the stretch out.  Shari closed well last time out while finishing a little over a length behind Pure Perfection.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 9 with 7,9 with 5 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6,7 with 3,4,9 with 3,6,7,8,9 with 2,5,10 $67.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,5 with 9 with 7,9 with 5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,5,6,7,8 with 7,9 with 5 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 1,2,4,10 with 5 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 7,9 with 1,3,4,6,7,8,9 $7.00

Total: $86.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:24 EDT / 4:24 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/23/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 1 Stormin Bunny (Final Odds 0.70*) - "A" Selection

Race 7 - # 1 Desert Smoke (1.60*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 3 Bella Luma (1.50*) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - # 6 Bronzino (Fr) (5.40) - "C" Selection

And that's why you play backup tickets.

Needless to say, it was nice to collect again.  However, going "ALL" in the third leg just to see the Post Time Favorite win clear is, well, something less than nice, and demonstrates that there's always room for improvement in this game.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other seven runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 1 Pepper Crown (13.30) - $209.95 Finish: 5th

# 2 Royal Banker (GB) 11.00) - $181.25 Finish: 7th

# 3 My Discretion (2.40) - $41.65 Finish: 4th

# 4 Cackle the Cuda (4.30) - $48.20 Finish: 2nd

# 5 Lucky Views (55.10) - $793.15 Finish: 6th

# 7 Hay Dude (GB) (1.70*) - $26.70 Finish: 3rd

# 8 Honest Iago (67.10) - $858.75 Finish: 8th

Since My Discretion was my "A" Selection in the final leg, his victory would have meant that the above payout for his win would have been trebled.

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 1 / 3 / 6  which paid $80.15 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $23.15 on my initial $57.00 investment, or approximate odds of 0.41-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/23/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

Sunday's Northern California thoroughbred program has an interesting layout, as there are no maiden races among the final four contests.  Incidentally, that also means that once again the final Daily Double on the card will not include a maiden contest.  So with that tidbit of information noted let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Stormin Bunny (Morning Line 2-1)

B’s

# 5 Go Smiley Go (ML 9-5)

C's

# 2 Night of Idiots (ML 6-1)
# 3 Swanee (ML 8-1)
# 4 Khaleesi (ML 7-2)
# 6 C C the Bartender (ML 10-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; excepting that entrants are given a bye for having one (and just one) victory for $20k or less not counted toward their lifetime total.  For the record, # 3 Swanee is the only runner in this field with multiple victories.

I was surprised that this race didn't draw better.  Normally these California N2L Starter Allowances bring fuller fields; but only a half dozen are scheduled to run Sunday.

Stormin Bunny took the Show against classier competition last time out, in just her second career start.  Stormin Bunny probably should be a big ticket single; but as this will be her second race off an extended layoff, I'm going to guard against a bounce by including Go Smiley Go, a Place finisher at this level last time out, as a "B" Selection.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 1 Desert Smoke (ML 5-2)

B's

# 6 Mybluebell (Fr) (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Fast Bid (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 3 Beau Rocks (ML 12-1)
# 4 Holy Diver (ML 30-1)
# 5 Hal's Buddy (ML 9-2)
# 7 Astolat (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 8 Lucky Antares (ML 20-1)
# 9 Tizno's Dilemma (ML 6-1)
# 10 Dutton's Legacy (ML 20-1)

Desert Smoke has won four of her last five contests and has finished in the Trifecta in each of her last nine starts.  Mybluebell (Fr) could move up off the class drop.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) ALW NC - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 3 Bella Luma (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Dreamarcher (ML 8-1)
# 2 Staintondale Lass (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 4 Miss Sugars (GB) (ML 7-2)
# 5 Warm Endowment (ML 5-1)
# 6 Eccentric Spinster (ML 3-1)

C's

None

There are no conditions for this allowance race; so if you have a filly or mare, three years old or upward, and you wanted to run her here, you could have done so.

Dreamarcher and Eccentric Spinster, the uncoupled entry trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, form an interesting pair.  Their combined career record on the turf is twenty-six starts with only two victories.  However, over the synthetic main track at Golden Gate, Dreamarcher and Eccentric Spinster have a combined eight wins in thirteen starts.  Just further evidence that turf form and all weather form are not interchangeable.

Anyway, I went "ALL" in on this one.  As good as Bella Luma is, I don't see her as a real standout in this field; and I likewise don't see any runner that's a clear cut toss.  Maybe I could toss Staintondale Lass (Ire); but, seriously, why would you use just five in a field of six?  So the "ALL" button it is.

RACE 9 - Clm $6.25k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 My Discretion (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Royal Banker (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 4 Cackle the Cuda (ML 7-2)
# 7 Hay Dude (GB) (ML 2-1)

C's

# 1 Pepper Crown (ML 12-1)
# 5 Lucky Views (ML 20-1)
# 6 Bronzino (Fr) (ML 9-2)
# 8 Honest Iago (ML 20-1)

My Discretion took the Show against more expensive stock last time out.  Royal Banker (GB) could wake up with the class drop.  Cackle the Cuda and Hay Dude (GB) have taken turns defeating each other at this class level in each of their last two starts.  The Backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 1 with 3 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 1,6 with ALL with 2,3,4,7 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6 with 1 with 3 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10 with 3 with 3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1 with 3 with 1,5,6,8 $2.00

Total: $57.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/22/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 3 Mommy Rose (Final Odds 0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 True Testament (0.90*) - "A" Selection & "B" Selection*
Race 8 - # 7 Fort Cady (1.80) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Rideo (2.70) - "A" Selection

* # 8 Zoning, a "B" Selection, was a late scratch from Race 7, so I received True Testament, the Post Time Favorite, in her place.

Can't complain about a result where I catch four Aces, especially where half of them weren't the Post Time Favorite.  Still, that was some rather curious wagering by the public in the third leg, as they chose to make # 8 Rainbow North (1.10*) the Post Time Favorite, even though (as I pointed out in the preview) Fort Cady had finished two and a half lengths in front of Rainbow North last time out.  Also, hindsight being twenty-twenty, I should have made Fort Cady a big ticket single; but again, I can't complain about the results.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other eleven runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 2 Midnight Ming (2.40*) - $24.40 Finish: 2nd
# 4 Plate Side (11.90) - $129.60 Finish:10th
# 5 Suances Secret (59.10) - $487.05 Finish: 12th
# 6 River Rose (5.60) - $45.15 Finish: 4th
# 7 Dancing Harbor (56.40) - $572.95 Finish: 6th
# 8 Soltero (11.40) - $72.60 Finish: 8th
# 9 Drinkin and Dialin (65.00) - $702.75 Finish: 9th
# 10 Yerevan Song (74.30) - $685.50 Finish: 11th
# 11 Tune to Win (9.30) - $99.70 Finish: 5th
# 12 Uber Star (7.60) - $120.95 Finish: 3rd
# 13 Unpossible (22.00) - $142.85 Finish: 7th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  3 / 4 / 7 / 1  which paid $25.95 for a fifty cent wager.  Since I had it four times (twice on the All "A" Selections ticket, and twice on the big ticket due to the late scratch of Zoning) I pocket $103.80.  That makes for a profit of $41.30 on my initial $62.50 investment, or approximate odds of 0.66-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/22/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

The final four sequence on Saturday's Northern California card kicks off with a pair of sprints for non-Winners of One Lifetime; a somewhat different layout of the program than what we normally see, as a maiden race is frequently held back to be a part of the day's final Daily Double.  Anyway, with the first two races scheduled for five and a half and five furlongs respectively, it won't take long to see how my selections in the opening half of the sequence work out.  So with all that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - (F) Md $8k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Mommy Rose (Morning Line 9-5)

B's

# 5 I Will Rule (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Storming Reese (ML 20-1)
# 2 Ruled by Girls (ML 5-2)
# 4 Wright Winged (ML 8-1)
# 6 Joni B True (ML 10-1)
# 7 Julie's Many Stars (ML 20-1)
# 8 Tengas Angel (ML 9-2)

Mommy Rose and I Will Rule look quickest here.  I give the edge to Mommy Rose because she's shown her mettle against more expensive stock.

I was tempted to include Ruled by Girls on the big ticket, as she's certainly talented enough to win at this level; but Ruled by Girls has failed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level in each of her last three races.  Such a pattern suggests that Ruled by Girls may be quite content settling for minor awards in races that she should win.  Worse, it suggests that she does so while drawing a large share of the wagering money, meaning that if she should finally break that pattern, it won't pay anywhere near what it should.  Therefore, I decided leave Ruled by Girls off the big ticket, and place her with the others in the field as my backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 True Testament (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Here'slookinatya (ML 7-2)
# 6 Rhyming Tiger (ML 12-1)
# 7 Majestic Bella (ML 8-1)
# 8 Zoning (ML 9-2)

C's

# 2 I B Fiesty (ML 6-1)
# 3 Say It With Roses (ML 8-1)
# 5 Sweet Alley (ML 20-1)
# 9 Diamond Game (ML 20-1)
# 10 Jennys Finest (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 11 Warrior Mom (ML 30-1), who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list.

True Testament ships in from downstate, switching barns from Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer to Trainer John Martin.  True Testament's form looks exceptional if you focus just on her true sprint efforts, and cross out her races down the Santa Anita hill.

Here'slookinatya is also shipping in from downstate, and could improve over her debut effort last time out.  Rhyming Tiger could improve with blinkers being added.  Majestic Bella took the Place against cheaper stock in her debut last time out, and could improve with the surface switch.  Zoning could be the one keeping True Testament company on the lead through the early going at least, and perhaps all the way to the wire.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - Clm $3.2k N2Y - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Fort Cady (ML 8-5)

B’s

# 8 Rainbow North (ML 2-1)

C's

# 1 Danas Best (ML 12-1)
# 2 Underwrite (ML 30-1)
# 4 Let's Play Ball (ML 12-1)
# 5 Global Harbor (ML 8-1)
# 6 Snappy Jack (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 3 Forever the Chief (ML 5-1)

This contest is for runners which have not won two races in 2018.

Fort Cady and Rainbow North filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  My initial inclination was to single Fort Cady and relegate Rainbow North to backup "C" Selection status, because Fort Cady was two and a half lengths better last time out.  But Rainbow North did hit the Finish Line ahead of Fort Cady a couple of time earlier this year; so, even though it means doubling its cost, both runners go on the big ticket.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 1 Rideo (ML 3-1)

B's

# 5 Suances Secret (ML 12-1)
# 6 River Rose (ML 9-2)
# 11 Tune to Win (ML 8-1)
# 12 Uber Star (ML 10-1)

C's

# 2 Midnight Ming (ML 7-2)
# 4 Plate Side (ML 12-1)
# 7 Dancing Harbor (ML 20-1)
# 8 Soltero (ML 6-1)
# 9 Drinkin and Dialin (ML 20-1)
# 10 Yerevan Song (ML 20-1)
# 13 Unpossible (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 3 Story Charmant (ML 20-1)

Rideo took the Place at this class level last time out, and could improve with the reduction in real estate.  Suances Secret is another that could benefit from not having to go that extra half furlong.

River Rose was much the best while graduating last time out in his first turf try.  Tune to Win and Uber Star could be the ones running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 4 with 7 with 1 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 1,4,6,7,8 with 7,8 with 1,5,6,11,12 $50.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,6,7,8 with 4 with 7 with 1 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,3,5,9,10 with 7 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4 with 1,2,4,5,6 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4 with 7 with 2,4,7,8,9,10,13 $3.50

Total: $62.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/16/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 7 Gobsmack (Final Odds 13.70) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - # 1 Bay Muzik (2.60*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 6 Anyportinastorm (3.30) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - # 3 Alleycat (6.10) - "A" Selection

And that's why you play backup tickets.

As a side note, it's worth tucking away for future reference the events of the opening leg.  First time starter # 2 Double Tiger (3.00*) was bet down from his Morning Line odds of 10-1 to Post Time Favoritism.  Double Tiger then proceeded to walk out of the gate at the break, and pulled up due to lameness just a few feet from the start.  Something to keep in mind the next someone (including this writer) tries to tell you that the smart money always knows where to go.

Meanwhile, the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 1 / 6 / 3  paid $1,250.60 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $1,174.60 on my initial $76 investment, or approximate odds of 15.46-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/16/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

Sunday's featured race in Northern California is certainly worthy of its name; for while it is an Optional Claimer with most of the runners up for sale, it is a quality field, and should be an enjoyable one to watch.  I'll be offering my analysis of that event below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 10 Nolongerahobby (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 1 Midnight Special (ML 10-1)
# 2 Double Tiger (ML 10-1)
# 6 El Pistolas Y Que (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 You Don't Own Me (ML 4-1)
# 4 Big Ceas (ML 9-2)
# 5 My Lucky Mark (ML 20-1)
# 7 Gobsmack (ML 10-1)
# 8 First Coach (ML 15-1)
# 9 My Little Fat Boy (ML 6-1)

These are juveniles, with many exiting the same last race.  Nolongerahobby and El Pistolas Y Que were the top two finishers among the non-graduates in that contest.  Midnight Special, who debuted in that event, showed good early speed before fading late.  

You Don't Own Me was the Post Time Favorite in that event; but he barely picked up his feet in that contest.  Maybe You Don't Own Me just didn't like the surface.  Big Ceas got roughed up a bit in that race, so he could improve with a cleaner trip; but, quite frankly, I don't think Big Ceas was a threat to the winner last time out even if he hadn't been bumped.  So because I consider them question marks I relegated You Don't Own Me and Big Ceas to backup "C" Selections, along with the rest of the field.  I put debut runner Double Tiger on the big ticket as a "B" Selections because he's been working well over this main track, and also because I'm really not impressed with any of the experienced runners.

RACE 7 - ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf

A's

# 1 Bay Muzik (ML 5-1)

B's

# 4 Candy Crew (ML 8-1)
# 7 Brownie Finale (ML 3-1)
# 8 Giopress (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Sunrise Journey (ML 10-1)
# 3 Big League (ML 7-2)
# 5 Flash Henry (ML 12-1)
# 6 Gray Gem (ML 12-1)

Bay Muzik looks quickest here, and the rail draw can only help.  Candy Crew goes first off the claim for Trainer Bill McLean, who tends to do well with such.  Brownie Finale was a winner at this class level last time out.  Giopress, who disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his last two races, could improve with the change in barn.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - OC 62.5k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Anyportinastorm (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 7 Annie's Candy (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Malibu Alex (ML 9-2)
# 2 Algenon (ML 12-1)
# 3 Kochees (ML 5-2)
# 4 J C's Nightcap (ML 8-1)
# 5 Regal Born (ML 7-2)

Anyportinastorm took the Show at this class level last time out, and has been training well for his return to competition.  Annie's Candy closed well to win at this class level last time out.

A strong case could be made for including either or both of Kochees and J C's Nightcap on the big ticket in this leg; but I really think that Anyportinastorm is well meant here, and that Annie's Candy has a clear (though by no means large) edge over the rest of the field.  Still, all others are being placed on a backup ticket, just in case.

RACE 9 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Alleycat (ML 10-1)

B’s

# 1 Lil Awesome (ML 9-2)
# 5 Crownethorp (ML 5-2)
# 7 Unexpected Journey (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Become an Insider (ML 20-1)
# 4 Shot of a Lifetime (ML 8-1)
# 6 Close to Midnight (ML 20-1)
# 8 Imalocomotive (ML 10-1)
# 9 Pioneerofthestorm (ML 6-1)
# 10 Madi's Thunderbird (ML 20-1)
# 11 Make Money for Me (ML 15-1)

Alleycat is being priced to sell here, and looks to be best with the class drop.  Lil Awesome has run well in the past over this turf course; but the rail draw could be problematic.

Crownethorp missed the Winner's Circle by just a nose at this class level last time out.  Unexpected Journey could improve with the return to two turn racing.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 1 with 6 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,6,10 with 1,4,7,8 with 6,7 with 1,3,5,7 $64.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,7,8,9 with 1 with 6 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 2,3,5,6 with 6 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 3 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1 with 6 with 2,4,6,8,9,10,11 $3.50

Total: $76.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/15/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 3 Boomchicaboom (Final Odds 0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Bezzy (5.00) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Cool Hunter (1.50*) - "B" Selection & "B" Selection*
Race 9 - # 7 Aztec Warrior (3.10*) - "A" Selection

* # 7 Lullaby's Orphan, a "B" Selection, was a late scratch from Race 8, so I received Cool Hunter, the Post Time Favorite, in his place.

Pretty formful running of the card on Saturday, with three of the four winners in the sequence being the top choice of the wagering public.  In the category of "It's Better To Be Lucky Than Good", I get two for the price of one in the third leg, with the late scratch of one of my "B" Selections.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other two runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 6 Six Cider (4.40) - $104.65 Finish: 8th
# 8 Topgallant (4.60) - $156.70 Finish: 7th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  3 / 4 / 1 / 7  which paid $79.10 for a fifty cent wager.  Since I had it twice (thanks to the late scratch of Lullaby's Orphan) I pocket $158.20.  That makes for a profit of $114.20 on my initial $44 investment, or approximate odds of 2.60-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/15/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

Speed seems to be the theme for Saturday's thoroughbred card in Northern California, as two of the final four contests on the program are scheduled to be run at a distance of just five furlongs.  So with that as our introduction let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Boomchicaboom (Morning Line 8-5)

B's

# 7 Rose Princess (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Joe's Passion (ML 5-2)
# 2 Check Out (ML 10-1)
# 4 Thunder Woman (ML 10-1)
# 5 Heavenly Holiday (ML 8-1)
# 6 Rouge Bouquet (ML 15-1)

Boomchicaboom didn't show much in her debut two starts back; but with the change of surface and the drop to Cal bred only company last time out, Boomchicaboom led most of the way and just missed graduation by less than a length.  Rose Princess is a debut runner who has been working well for this event.  Note that Rose Princess's broodmare, Heirloom Rose, has produced five winners from five starters.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf

A's

# 2 Raiderette (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Bezzy (ML 9-2)
# 5 Cyrielle (ML 6-1)
# 10 Maycee Jo (ML 5-2)

C's

# 11 Unusually Stylish (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 1 Pattin for a Dance (ML 12-1) and # 6 Myangelcindy (ML 8-1)

Raiderette has been hanging around this class level for a while, picking up more than her fair share of minor awards.  But the return off the freshening, coupled with the sharp work on September 3, suggests that Raiderette will be ready to get her picture taken Saturday.

Bezzy looks like the one that will be running best late.  Cyrielle is two-for-two since being claimed by Trainer Jonathan Wong.  Maycee Jo returns from downstate and may appreciate the outside draw.  Unusually Stylish could move up going third off the layoff.

RACE 8 - Md $5k - Five Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 In for Lunch (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Cool Hunter (ML 8-5)

# 7 Lullaby's Orphan (ML 20-1)

C's

# 5 Rocking Chieftain (ML 20-1)

# 9 Shotgun Bandit (ML 8-1)

# 10 Live Piece (ML 9-2)

In for Lunch ran well in his debut last time before running out of gas in the stretch.  Cool Hunter has run well in the past when going around just one turn; though it's fair to wonder if Saturday's race is just to help get Cool Hunter back in shape after the extended layoff.  Lullaby's Orphan could improve with the drop in class.

Rocking Chieftain was able to get the Show last time out, though he was nowhere near the winner at the wire.  Shotgun Bandit could improve with the return to one turn racing.  Live Piece is a first time starter who could upset, as this field contains quite a few runners who have had more than their fair share of chances to graduate.

RACE 9 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Aztec Warrior (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 6 Six Cider (ML 10-1)

# 8 Topgallant (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Jack and I (ML 9-2)

# 2 You'll Be Lucky (ML 8-1)

# 3 Kid Arcade (ML 6-1)

# 4 Unlawful Act (ML 5-1)

# 5 Toro de Toro (ML 20-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; excepting that entrants are given a bye for having one (and just one) victory for $20k or less not counted toward their lifetime total.  For the record, # 4 Unlawful Act; # 5 Toro de Toro; # 6 Six Cider; and # 7 Aztec Warrior are the runners in this field who have visited the Winner's Circle twice.

Aztec Warrior returns from downstate, dropping in class and cutting back in distance.  Six Cider could rebound going third off the layoff.  Topgallant goes first off the claim for Trainer Jonathan Wong, who tends to do well with such.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 2 with 4 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 2,4,5,10 with 1,4,7 with 6,7,8 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6 with 2 with 4 with 7 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 11 with 4 with 7 $0.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 5,9,10 with 7 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 4 with 1,2,3,4,5 $2.50

Total: $44.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/9/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 Maii (Final Odds 3.80) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Orchestral (1.30*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 The White Shadow (1.50*) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Carolina Island (7.30) - "B" Selection

On the plus side, I was correct not to single # 4 Speed Saver (1.20*) in the nightcap, as that runner closed well, but too late to get to the winner, and had to settle for the Show.  I was also correct in stating that the Win Pool would find the winner of the all first time starters third leg in the sequence, as The White Shadow, second choice on the Morning Line but Post Time Favorite, was an easy winner of that contest.  Unfortunately I wasn't correct where it matters, as I close the weekend as I began, getting three out of four home on the big ticket.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 1 / 2 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $159.65 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/9/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

"If you wait for luck to turn up, life becomes very boring." - Mikhail Tal

It's Sunday; and that's about all I have by way of introduction.  So let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - Md $8k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Deputy Ranger (Morning Line 15-1)

B's

# 4 Maii (ML 3-1)
# 5 Wyoming Chief (ML 4-1)
# 6 Uncontainable (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Beat the Chalk (ML 9-5)
# 3 Papa Caballero (ML 7-2)
# 7 All About Family (ML 15-1)

Deputy Ranger and Wyoming Chief are the only two runners in this field to have finished in the money last time out.  Maii is a first time starter who had a sharp work over this track earlier this month.  Uncontainable ran out of gas trying to go around two turns last time out; perhaps Uncontainable will move up with the reduction in real estate.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - Clm $32k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Nowhere Man (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 Orchestral (ML 2-1)
# 5 Perfect Come Back (ML 4-1)

C's

# 3 Uninvited (ML 10-1)
# 4 Saxon Lord (ML 5-2)
# 6 Sunny Spot (ML 10-1)

Nowhere Man has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last eight races.  The last time that Nowhere Man was offered for sale at today's price he missed victory by just a nose.

Orchestral may be over-matched at this class level; but the rail draw is a definite benefit for a runner as quick as Orchestral, and he projects to be the one that they'll have to catch to win.  Perfect Come Back took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit over the main track at Del Mar.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Luck Is My Name (ML 7-2)

B's

# 5 Majestic Star (ML 20-1)
# 8 Ballycastle (ML 15-1)

C's

# 2 The White Shadow (ML 5-2)
# 3 King Atahualpa (ML 8-1)
# 4 Command the Moment (ML 6-1)
# 7 Sooner Better (ML 2-1)

Scratch # 6 Turret (ML 12-1)

These are juveniles, and they're all first time starters.  The smart move is probably to just punch the "ALL" button; especially since, as this is leg three, there's no way of knowing which runner is going to attract attention in the Win Pool.  So if your budget allows, you may want to give strong consideration to just buying this race.

Luck Is My Name has posted a couple of sharp workouts over this main track.  Luck Is My Name is out of Echo Harbor, who has produced seven winners out of seven starters.  Since Luck Is My Name was sired by Lookin At Lucky, that makes him a full brother to One Lucky Dane, Place finisher in the 2015 Santa Anita Derby.

Majestic Star is by Majesticperfection, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.  Ballycastle is trained by Roger Hansen, who occasionally gets home debut runners at very nice prices.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - Alw 4000s - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Speed Saver (ML 8-5)

B’s

# 6 Colour Me Happy (GB) (ML 7-2)
# 7 Carolina Island (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Mark Ye Well (ML 15-1)
# 2 Presidentsky (ML 10-1)
# 3 Majestic Journey (ML 20-1)
# 5 Get Like Me (ML 3-1)

Note for future reference that, unlike many Starter Allowances run in California, this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry.  So any runner that has started for a claiming price of $4k or less, either this year or last, is eligible to run here.

I gave a lot of thought to using Speed Saver as a single here, as he won easily last time out for $12.5k, and now goes first off the claim for Trainer Jonathan Wong.  But ultimately I decided to use a couple more in this leg; and, well, we'll just have to see how that works out.

Colour Me Happy (GB) goes first off the claim for Jamey Thomas, who tends to do well with such.  Carolina Island was a winner by a nose at this class level last time out, albeit over the dirt track at Pleasanton.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 2 with 1 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,5,6 with 1,2,5 with 1,5,8 with 4,6,7 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 2 with 1 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,4,6 with 1 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2 with 2,3,4,7 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2 with 1 with 1,2,3,5 $2.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/8/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 Fast Bid (Final Odds 1.60*) - "B" Selection

Race 7 - # 2 Silk Ransom (1.80*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 4 Kitten's Royal (3.90) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - # 3 Filina (4.10) - "B" Selection

Call it a case of the wrong Kitten; for I had # 6 Home Run Kitten (3.40) covered as my "B" Selection in the third leg of the sequence; but Home Run Kitten could do no better than fourth, while my "A" Selection # 7 Drouillard (2.20*) had to settle for the Place; as Kitten's Royal was just too good for them Saturday, easily winning Race 8 at Golden Gate Fields while turning my tickets into trash.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 2 / 4 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $237.45 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/8/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

The Southern California thoroughbred circuit moves on to Los Alamitos for the Los Angeles County Fair Meet; the dates that in years gone bye that belonged to Fairplex.  And while I very much enjoy playing the thoroughbreds at Los Alamitos, they have unfortunately once again, as they did during their Summer Meet, priced me out of the game by doubling the usual minimum wager for a Pick Four play from fifty cents to a dollars.  So, since I can't magically double my bankroll, for the time being I'll be shifting my action upstate, where I will be taking a run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $20k N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Christiana's Song (Morning Line 6-5)

B’s

# 2 Splashing (ML 12-1)
# 4 Fast Bid (Ire) (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Red Glitter (ML 15-1)
# 5 Dadlani (ML 20-1)
# 6 International Diva (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Miss Shirley C (ML 9-2)

Christiana's Song, trained by John Martin, is taking a big class drop here and should be well rested.  Splashing, trained by Duane Offield, has run well in her previous five tries on the turf.  Fast Bid (Ire), trained by Isidro Tamayo, fits well at this level and could improve with the return to grass.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Silk Ransom (ML 5-2)

B's

# 3 Candycane Kate (ML 5-1)
# 4 Blushing Bay (ML 9-5)

C's

# 1 Respect My Candor (ML 3-1)
# 5 Kee Forest (ML 8-1)
# 6 Bounty of Gold (ML 10-1)

Silk Ransom and Candycane Kate are a pair of first time starters for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with such.  Blushing Bay ran well in her debut last time out, once she realized that there was a race going on and she was in it.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Drouillard (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 6 Home Run Kitten (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Lil' Chieftain (ML 10-1)
# 2 Southern Loyalty (ML 15-1)
# 3 Street Lad (ML 9-2)
# 4 Kitten's Royal (ML 4-1)
# 5 Kenzou's Rhythm (ML 6-1)
# 8 Royal Banker (GB) (ML 15-1)

Note that none of the entrants in the contest finished in the money last time out, which makes it a little tricky to determine who is and isn't in good form.  Drouillard and Home Run Kitten, both trained by Jonathan Wong, both look well meant every time that they get on the lawn; so those are the two get go on the big ticket.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $8k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Two Timing Lucy (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 A Brides Song (ML 6-1)
# 2 Amabella (ML 10-1)
# 3 Filina (ML 10-1)
# 4 Quadrillionaire (ML 5-1)
# 5 Mariana's Girl (ML 9-2)

C's

None

Scratch # 7 Tengas Angel (ML 3-1)

This is another contest where none of the runners managed to finish in the money last time out; and, you know, I'm just not going to mess with it.  The Jonathan Wong trained Two Timing Lucy looks to be the classiest of the bunch, so she goes on top; but otherwise it's everyone into the pool, as I'm punching the "ALL" button for this leg.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 2 with 7 with 6  $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4 with 2,3,4 with 6,7 with ALL  $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,5,6,7 with 2 with 7 with 6  $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,5,6 with 7 with 6  $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 1,2,3,4,5,8 with 6  $3.00

Total: $61.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/3/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 2 Pepe Toro (Final Odds 12.80) - No Selection

Race 8 - # 10 Rayana (3.00) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - The Del Mar Futurity - # 7 Game Winner (1.60) - "A" Selection

Race 10 - # 5 Highlight Show (18.60) - "B" Selection

Positives Monday include making the correct decision to make room on the big ticket for the "other" Baffert in the Del Mar Futurity, Game Winner; as well as catching a big price in the nightcap, which is just what you hope for when you punch the "ALL" button.  But the negative Monday was a big one, as I completely overlooked the winner of the opening leg; and, as you all know, when you miss one, you might as well miss 'em all.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  2 / 10 / 7 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $3,392.90 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/3/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

“Without ambition one starts nothing. Without work one finishes nothing. The prize will not be sent to you. You have to win it.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

Happy Labor Day / Labour Day to all those in the US and Canada, respectively.  Viewed as the traditional end of the Summer season, Monday is most definitely the end of the Summer Del Mar meet; and with that end comes the running of the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Flagstaff (Morning Line 3-1)
# 8 Show Me Da Lute (ML 7-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 Major Cabbie (ML 4-1)
# 6 Lord Guinness (ML 5-1)
# 9 King Cause (ML 10-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 11 Super Sol (ML 7-2); # 12 Solid Wager (ML 4-1); and # 13 Rapid Red (ML 6-1)

Flagstaff missed victory at this class level by less than a length last time out, and could improve with the stretch out to two turns.  Show Me Da Lute took the Show at this class level last time out, and on Monday will be going third off the long layoff.

Major Cabbie will try to duplicate his effort from last time out, where he graduated by riding the rail to an easy victory.  Lord Guinness is another trying winners for the first time after graduating by daylight last time out.  King Cause could move up with the class relief.

RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Colonial Creed (ML 5-2)

B's

# 8 Natural Born Singer (ML 5-1)
# 9 My Sweet Baboo (ML 6-1)
# 10 Rayana (ML 7-2)

C's

# 4 Unbridled Huntress (ML 12-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 11 Flying Blue (ML 20-1); # 12 Barbadolla (ML 3-1); # 13 Friars Walk (Ire) (ML 8-1); # 14 Bellazano (ML 20-1)

Colonial Creed took the Place at this class level in her debut last time out.  Natural Born Singer is out of a Unbridled's Song mare and has Distorted Humor as a grandsire; so the breeding is there to support both the stretch out to two turns and the move to the lawn.

My Sweet Baboo and Rayana are a pair of first time starters that will be ridden by Flavien Prat and Drayden Van Dyke, respectively.  As those two are perhaps the best turf riders in the Southern California jockey colony, it's fair to presume that these two fillies will be ready to go at first asking.  Unbridled Huntress is a first time starter from Trainer Mick Ruis, whose debut runners tend to perform well; however, the breaks in Unbridled Huntress' workout regimen is a concern.

RACE 9 - The Del Mar Futurity (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Roadster (ML 6-5)
# 7 Game Winner (ML 4-1)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Sparky Ville (ML 20-1)
# 2 Rowayton (ML 3-1)
# 5 Spin Lightning (ML 6-1)
# 6 Sigalert (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 4 Savagery (ML 15-1)

Roadster, trained by Bob Baffert, looks to be a solid Favorite here, and probably should be a single.  However, I decided that it was worth it to double the cost of the big ticket by also including Game Winner, because I don't want Monday to be yet another day where I got beat by the "other" Baffert runner.  Also take note that Game Winner was the quicker of the two in their most recent workout.

The backup "C" Selections are everyone else, because these are juveniles, so there's no telling who may have had a large growth spurt since they last ran.  Besides, this is only a field of six.

RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Push Through (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Reckless Gravity (ML 15-1)
# 2 Nevermissabeat (ML 5-1)
# 3 Cool Your Jets (ML 5-1)
# 4 Ostini (ML 12-1)
# 5 Highlight Show (ML 15-1)
# 7 The Hunted (ML 6-1)
# 8 According to Buddy (ML 20-1)
# 10 Sir Eddie (ML 9-2)
# 11 Achieved (ML 20-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 9 Satrapa (ML 6-1)

All right; everybody into the pool for this one.  If by the grace of the Almighty I happen to still be in the game when the nightcap rolls around, I don't want to lose on the final day of the meet because I couldn't sort out which California bred juvenile was finally going to figure out that they weren't being put on the grass so that they would have something to snack on.  So the "ALL" button it is for the finale of the day, the holiday weekend, and the Summer meet.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7,8 with 5 with 3,7 with 6 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 5,8,9,10 with 3,7 with ALL $80.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,6,9 with 5 with 3,7 with 6 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 4 with 3,7 with 6 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 7,8 with 5 with 1,2,5,6 with 6 $4.00

Total: $93.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:05 EDT / 5:05 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/2/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 1 Sneaking Out (Final Odds 1.30*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - The Del Mar Derby - # 8 Ride a Comet (5.80) - "A "Selection

Race 9 - # 8 Stringent (7.00) - No Selection

Race 10 - # 6 More Ice (10.80) - "B" Selection

Needless to say, the big story Sunday was the shooting that occurred on site at Del Mar as the final race was being run.  As I type this news accounts are still incomplete; this story at DRF.com perhaps containing the most current information.  Certainly a scary situation for those at the track, not to mention all those with loved ones on location; but all current reports are indicating that the only person injured was the individual who initiated the shooting.

Meanwhile, getting back to the world of sport and away from the world of harsh realities, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 8 / 8 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $991.75 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/2/18 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

The Grade 2 Del Mar Derby is the featured race Sunday in Southern California, as three year olds go two turns around the Jimmy Durante Turf Course.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Sneaking Out (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 6 Mz Brown (ML 3-1)

C's

# 3 Violette Szabo (ML 12-1)
# 4 Faithful One (ML 8-1)
# 7 Summer Rose (ML 5-1)
# 9 Gotta Be Lucky (ML 7-2)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 11 Blueberry Princess (ML 8-1)

Sneaking Out took the Place at this class level in her debut last time out.  Mz Brown and Gotta Be Lucky filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level last time out behind a next out winner; but while Gotta Be Lucky finished ahead of Mz Brown in that event, I think Mz Brown is the one more likely to improve, as Mz Brown will be adding blinkers while making her second career start.

Violette Szabo and Summer Rose are two first time starters from the barn of Trainer Phil D'Amato, whose runners tend to do well at first asking.  Faithful One is a first time starter trained by Billy Morey, who is having a fine meet.  Note that Morey is also the trainer of Mz Brown.

RACE 8 - The Del Mar Derby (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 5-2)
# 8 Ride a Comet (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Epical (ML 20-1)
# 2 Desert Stone (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 11 Majestic Eagle (ML 15-1)

C's

# 4 Restrainedvengence (ML 20-1)
# 5 Arawak (ML 8-1)
# 6 Pubilius Syrus (ML 8-1)
# 7 Andesh (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 9 Take the One O One (ML 8-1)
# 10 Kazan (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 12 Animosity (ML 20-1)

River Boyne (Ire) enters this event having won five of his last six contests, including the Grade 3 La Jolla over this turf course last time out.  Ride a Comet took the Show in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga last time out.

Majestic Eagle and Epical filled out the Exacta in an Optional Claiming contest over this turf course at today's distance last time out.  Desert Stone (Ire) closed well in the Oceanside after stumbling at the start last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Eighty Three (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 3 Tough But Nice (ML 3-1)
# 5 Ninety Nine Proof (ML 7-2)

C's

# 6 Papa Turf (ML 8-1)
# 7 Bow and Arrow (ML 6-1)

# 9 Colormemoney (ML 12-1)

Eighty Three was victorious at this class level two starts back, and Eighty Three could improve with the reduction in real estate.  Tough But Nice goes third off the layoff for Trainer Hector Palma after wiring the field against more expensive stock last time out.  Ninety Nine Proof goes first off the claim for Trainer Doug O'Neill, who tends to do well with such.

Papa Turf seems to be just a step too slow for several of these; but Papa Turf could move up going third off the freshening.  Bow and Arrow took the Place behind Ninety Nine Proof last time out.  Colormemoney might be quick enough to get himself into perfect position to pounce from the far outside post.

RACE 10 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Toshio (ML 8-1)

B's

# 5 Alleva (ML 7-2)

# 6 More Ice (ML 8-1)

# 8 Omaha Beach (ML 5-2)

# 10 Fortnite Dance (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Lead Star (ML 6-1)
# 3 R B Eye (ML 20-1)
# 4 Tanker (ML 6-1)
# 7 Yak (ML 12-1)
# 9 Royal Insider (ML 20-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 11 Flying Scotsman (ML 4-1); # 12 Absolute Control (ML 20-1); # 13 Data Hawk (ML 10-1); # 14 Seven Scents (ML 10-1)

Toshio is a first time starter for Trainer Phil D'Amato who looks ready to roll.  Alleva took the Place at this class level over this turf course last time out.  More Ice is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, whose runners tend to move up when trying the grass for the second time.

Omaha Beach is a first time starter for Trainer Richard Mandella; and while debut runners for Richard Mandella often need a race before visiting the Winner's Circle, the work that Omaha Beach had over the main track on August 3 suggests that he could get the job done today.  Fortnite Dance's breeding suggests that he'll do well with the surface switch.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 3,8 with 4 with 1 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 1,2,3,8,11 with 3,4,5 with 1,5,6,8,10 $75.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4,7,9 with 3,8 with 4 with 1 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 4,5,6,7,9,10,12 with 4 with 1 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,8 with 6,7,9 with 1 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,8 with 4 with 2,3,4,7,9 $5.00

Total: $92.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:05 EDT / 5:05 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo