Sunday, September 16, 2018

9/16/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

Sunday's featured race in Northern California is certainly worthy of its name; for while it is an Optional Claimer with most of the runners up for sale, it is a quality field, and should be an enjoyable one to watch.  I'll be offering my analysis of that event below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 10 Nolongerahobby (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 1 Midnight Special (ML 10-1)
# 2 Double Tiger (ML 10-1)
# 6 El Pistolas Y Que (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 You Don't Own Me (ML 4-1)
# 4 Big Ceas (ML 9-2)
# 5 My Lucky Mark (ML 20-1)
# 7 Gobsmack (ML 10-1)
# 8 First Coach (ML 15-1)
# 9 My Little Fat Boy (ML 6-1)

These are juveniles, with many exiting the same last race.  Nolongerahobby and El Pistolas Y Que were the top two finishers among the non-graduates in that contest.  Midnight Special, who debuted in that event, showed good early speed before fading late.  

You Don't Own Me was the Post Time Favorite in that event; but he barely picked up his feet in that contest.  Maybe You Don't Own Me just didn't like the surface.  Big Ceas got roughed up a bit in that race, so he could improve with a cleaner trip; but, quite frankly, I don't think Big Ceas was a threat to the winner last time out even if he hadn't been bumped.  So because I consider them question marks I relegated You Don't Own Me and Big Ceas to backup "C" Selections, along with the rest of the field.  I put debut runner Double Tiger on the big ticket as a "B" Selections because he's been working well over this main track, and also because I'm really not impressed with any of the experienced runners.

RACE 7 - ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf

A's

# 1 Bay Muzik (ML 5-1)

B's

# 4 Candy Crew (ML 8-1)
# 7 Brownie Finale (ML 3-1)
# 8 Giopress (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Sunrise Journey (ML 10-1)
# 3 Big League (ML 7-2)
# 5 Flash Henry (ML 12-1)
# 6 Gray Gem (ML 12-1)

Bay Muzik looks quickest here, and the rail draw can only help.  Candy Crew goes first off the claim for Trainer Bill McLean, who tends to do well with such.  Brownie Finale was a winner at this class level last time out.  Giopress, who disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his last two races, could improve with the change in barn.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - OC 62.5k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Anyportinastorm (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 7 Annie's Candy (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Malibu Alex (ML 9-2)
# 2 Algenon (ML 12-1)
# 3 Kochees (ML 5-2)
# 4 J C's Nightcap (ML 8-1)
# 5 Regal Born (ML 7-2)

Anyportinastorm took the Show at this class level last time out, and has been training well for his return to competition.  Annie's Candy closed well to win at this class level last time out.

A strong case could be made for including either or both of Kochees and J C's Nightcap on the big ticket in this leg; but I really think that Anyportinastorm is well meant here, and that Annie's Candy has a clear (though by no means large) edge over the rest of the field.  Still, all others are being placed on a backup ticket, just in case.

RACE 9 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Alleycat (ML 10-1)

B’s

# 1 Lil Awesome (ML 9-2)
# 5 Crownethorp (ML 5-2)
# 7 Unexpected Journey (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Become an Insider (ML 20-1)
# 4 Shot of a Lifetime (ML 8-1)
# 6 Close to Midnight (ML 20-1)
# 8 Imalocomotive (ML 10-1)
# 9 Pioneerofthestorm (ML 6-1)
# 10 Madi's Thunderbird (ML 20-1)
# 11 Make Money for Me (ML 15-1)


Alleycat is being priced to sell here, and looks to be best with the class drop.  Lil Awesome has run well in the past over this turf course; but the rail draw could be problematic.

Crownethorp missed the Winner's Circle by just a nose at this class level last time out.  Unexpected Journey could improve with the return to two turn racing.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 1 with 6 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,6,10 with 1,4,7,8 with 6,7 with 1,3,5,7 $64.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,7,8,9 with 1 with 6 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 2,3,5,6 with 6 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 3 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1 with 6 with 2,4,6,8,9,10,11 $3.50

Total: $76.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

No comments: