Saturday begins a holiday weekend in the United States, as well as kicking off the final weekend for the Del Mar meet. To mark the occasion two Graded Stakes have been carded for runners of the distaff variety: the Del Mar Debutante and the John C. Mabee; the latter of which I'll be taking a look at below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 8 - OC 80k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Jimmy Chila (Morning Line 6-1)
B’s
# 1 Shadow Sphinx (ML 6-1)
# 2 Magic Musketier (ML 6-1)
# 3 Italiano (ML 20-1)
# 10 Raven Creek (ML 4-1)
C's
# 4 Prince Earl (ML 9-2)
# 7 Risky Proposition (ML 12-1)
# 8 Extraordinary Jerry (ML 15-1)
# 11 Zestful (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 6 Stop the Violence (ML 12-1); # 9 My Heart Awakens (ML 30-1); and # 12 Secular Nation (ML 5-1)
Jimmy Chila and Magic Musketier filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Shadow Sphinx, who has run well previously at today's distance, was a winner in his first go round over this course last time out. Raven Creek is making the jump up in class from state bred only to open company; and while I wouldn't want to play Raven Creek in the Win pool at his Morning Line odds, I think his chances of winning here justify putting him on the big ticket.
Italiano stretches out for the first time as well as making his initial attempt on the grass; Italiano's breeding suggests that he'll do well with both moves. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Magic On Tap (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Kneedeepinsnow (ML 4-1)
# 2 Admiral Brown (ML 10-1)
C's
# 3 Gray Magician (ML 6-1)
# 4 Truck Salesman (ML 12-1)
# 5 Shining Through (ML 7-2)
# 6 Seven Oxen (ML 20-1)
# 7 Extra Hope (ML 4-1)
# 9 Grand Meister (ML 20-1)
These are juveniles, and I reserved the spots on the big ticket for three first time starters. Magic On Tap and Admiral Brown are trained by Bob Baffert; Kneedeepinsnow is trained by Mick Ruis. Both trainers tend to do well with debut runners, and all three of these entrants have been working well for this contest. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - (F) The John C Mabee (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Cambodia (ML 5-2)
B's
# 5 Fahan Mura (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Meal Ticket (ML 20-1)
# 2 Sophie P (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 10 The Tulip (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 11 Madame Stripes (Arg) (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 4 Storm the Hill (ML 15-1) and # 6 Cordiality (ML 12-1)
I suspect this contest will see Fahan Mura leading straight from the gate and most of the way around the course, with Cambodia pressing her throughout; and then Cambodia overtaking Fahan Mura shortly before the wire. However, I kept Fahan Mura on the big ticket because it would not shock me if Fahan Mura was to stay in front all the way to the Winner's Circle.
Madame Stripes (Arg) is talented enough to be thought of as a solid contender here; but I don't think Madame Stripes has either the early speed to stay with Fahan Mura during the opening furlongs, nor the late kick to overtake Cambodia approaching the wire; so for that reason I'm using Madame Stripes in a defensive position only. The other three "C" Selections are those entrants that I think have the best chance of picking up the pieces late should it all collapse before they reach the wire.
RACE 11 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Magical Gray (ML 5-1)
B's
# 3 Creative Contessa (ML 9-2)
# 4 Giveherdalute (ML 5-1)
# 6 Glitznglamour (ML 6-1)
# 9 Kindred (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Beyond Pleasure (ML 15-1)
# 2 See That Kat (ML 12-1)
# 5 Sandona Girl (ML 12-1)
# 7 Johansson (ML 15-1)
# 8 Tivat (ML 5-1)
Magical Gray took the Show at this class level in her debut last time out, albeit on the grass. Creative Contessa and Giveherdalute are a pair of first time starters, trained by Mick Ruis and Bob Baffert, respectively, who look like they're ready to roll.
Glitznglamour ships in from Kentucky after having run well in her first two career starts, but not so much in her third. Kindred took the Place at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 8 with 7 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,10 with 1,2,8 with 5,7 with 3,4,6,9,10 $75.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,7,8,11 with 8 with 7 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 3,4,5,6,7,9 with 7 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 8 with 1,2,10,11 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 8 with 7 with 1,2,5,7,8 $2.50
Total: $85.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:35 EDT / 5:35 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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