The final four sequence on Saturday's Northern California card kicks off with a pair of sprints for non-Winners of One Lifetime; a somewhat different layout of the program than what we normally see, as a maiden race is frequently held back to be a part of the day's final Daily Double. Anyway, with the first two races scheduled for five and a half and five furlongs respectively, it won't take long to see how my selections in the opening half of the sequence work out. So with all that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $8k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Mommy Rose (Morning Line 9-5)
B's
# 5 I Will Rule (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Storming Reese (ML 20-1)
# 2 Ruled by Girls (ML 5-2)
# 4 Wright Winged (ML 8-1)
# 6 Joni B True (ML 10-1)
# 7 Julie's Many Stars (ML 20-1)
# 8 Tengas Angel (ML 9-2)
Mommy Rose and I Will Rule look quickest here. I give the edge to Mommy Rose because she's shown her mettle against more expensive stock.
I was tempted to include Ruled by Girls on the big ticket, as she's certainly talented enough to win at this level; but Ruled by Girls has failed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level in each of her last three races. Such a pattern suggests that Ruled by Girls may be quite content settling for minor awards in races that she should win. Worse, it suggests that she does so while drawing a large share of the wagering money, meaning that if she should finally break that pattern, it won't pay anywhere near what it should. Therefore, I decided leave Ruled by Girls off the big ticket, and place her with the others in the field as my backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 True Testament (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Here'slookinatya (ML 7-2)
# 6 Rhyming Tiger (ML 12-1)
# 7 Majestic Bella (ML 8-1)
# 8 Zoning (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 I B Fiesty (ML 6-1)
# 3 Say It With Roses (ML 8-1)
# 5 Sweet Alley (ML 20-1)
# 9 Diamond Game (ML 20-1)
# 10 Jennys Finest (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 11 Warrior Mom (ML 30-1), who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list.
True Testament ships in from downstate, switching barns from Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer to Trainer John Martin. True Testament's form looks exceptional if you focus just on her true sprint efforts, and cross out her races down the Santa Anita hill.
Here'slookinatya is also shipping in from downstate, and could improve over her debut effort last time out. Rhyming Tiger could improve with blinkers being added. Majestic Bella took the Place against cheaper stock in her debut last time out, and could improve with the surface switch. Zoning could be the one keeping True Testament company on the lead through the early going at least, and perhaps all the way to the wire. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Clm $3.2k N2Y - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Fort Cady (ML 8-5)
B’s
# 8 Rainbow North (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Danas Best (ML 12-1)
# 2 Underwrite (ML 30-1)
# 4 Let's Play Ball (ML 12-1)
# 5 Global Harbor (ML 8-1)
# 6 Snappy Jack (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 3 Forever the Chief (ML 5-1)
This contest is for runners which have not won two races in 2018.
Fort Cady and Rainbow North filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. My initial inclination was to single Fort Cady and relegate Rainbow North to backup "C" Selection status, because Fort Cady was two and a half lengths better last time out. But Rainbow North did hit the Finish Line ahead of Fort Cady a couple of time earlier this year; so, even though it means doubling its cost, both runners go on the big ticket. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Rideo (ML 3-1)
B's
# 5 Suances Secret (ML 12-1)
# 6 River Rose (ML 9-2)
# 11 Tune to Win (ML 8-1)
# 12 Uber Star (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 Midnight Ming (ML 7-2)
# 4 Plate Side (ML 12-1)
# 7 Dancing Harbor (ML 20-1)
# 8 Soltero (ML 6-1)
# 9 Drinkin and Dialin (ML 20-1)
# 10 Yerevan Song (ML 20-1)
# 13 Unpossible (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 3 Story Charmant (ML 20-1)
Rideo took the Place at this class level last time out, and could improve with the reduction in real estate. Suances Secret is another that could benefit from not having to go that extra half furlong.
River Rose was much the best while graduating last time out in his first turf try. Tune to Win and Uber Star could be the ones running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 4 with 7 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 1,4,6,7,8 with 7,8 with 1,5,6,11,12 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,6,7,8 with 4 with 7 with 1 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,3,5,9,10 with 7 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4 with 1,2,4,5,6 with 1 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4 with 7 with 2,4,7,8,9,10,13 $3.50
Total: $62.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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