9/23/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

Sunday's Northern California thoroughbred program has an interesting layout, as there are no maiden races among the final four contests.  Incidentally, that also means that once again the final Daily Double on the card will not include a maiden contest.  So with that tidbit of information noted let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Stormin Bunny (Morning Line 2-1)

B’s

# 5 Go Smiley Go (ML 9-5)

C's

# 2 Night of Idiots (ML 6-1)
# 3 Swanee (ML 8-1)
# 4 Khaleesi (ML 7-2)
# 6 C C the Bartender (ML 10-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; excepting that entrants are given a bye for having one (and just one) victory for $20k or less not counted toward their lifetime total.  For the record, # 3 Swanee is the only runner in this field with multiple victories.

I was surprised that this race didn't draw better.  Normally these California N2L Starter Allowances bring fuller fields; but only a half dozen are scheduled to run Sunday.

Stormin Bunny took the Show against classier competition last time out, in just her second career start.  Stormin Bunny probably should be a big ticket single; but as this will be her second race off an extended layoff, I'm going to guard against a bounce by including Go Smiley Go, a Place finisher at this level last time out, as a "B" Selection.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 1 Desert Smoke (ML 5-2)

B's

# 6 Mybluebell (Fr) (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Fast Bid (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 3 Beau Rocks (ML 12-1)
# 4 Holy Diver (ML 30-1)
# 5 Hal's Buddy (ML 9-2)
# 7 Astolat (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 8 Lucky Antares (ML 20-1)
# 9 Tizno's Dilemma (ML 6-1)
# 10 Dutton's Legacy (ML 20-1)

Desert Smoke has won four of her last five contests and has finished in the Trifecta in each of her last nine starts.  Mybluebell (Fr) could move up off the class drop.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) ALW NC - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 3 Bella Luma (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Dreamarcher (ML 8-1)
# 2 Staintondale Lass (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 4 Miss Sugars (GB) (ML 7-2)
# 5 Warm Endowment (ML 5-1)
# 6 Eccentric Spinster (ML 3-1)

C's

None

There are no conditions for this allowance race; so if you have a filly or mare, three years old or upward, and you wanted to run her here, you could have done so.

Dreamarcher and Eccentric Spinster, the uncoupled entry trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, form an interesting pair.  Their combined career record on the turf is twenty-six starts with only two victories.  However, over the synthetic main track at Golden Gate, Dreamarcher and Eccentric Spinster have a combined eight wins in thirteen starts.  Just further evidence that turf form and all weather form are not interchangeable.

Anyway, I went "ALL" in on this one.  As good as Bella Luma is, I don't see her as a real standout in this field; and I likewise don't see any runner that's a clear cut toss.  Maybe I could toss Staintondale Lass (Ire); but, seriously, why would you use just five in a field of six?  So the "ALL" button it is.

RACE 9 - Clm $6.25k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 My Discretion (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Royal Banker (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 4 Cackle the Cuda (ML 7-2)
# 7 Hay Dude (GB) (ML 2-1)

C's

# 1 Pepper Crown (ML 12-1)
# 5 Lucky Views (ML 20-1)
# 6 Bronzino (Fr) (ML 9-2)
# 8 Honest Iago (ML 20-1)

My Discretion took the Show against more expensive stock last time out.  Royal Banker (GB) could wake up with the class drop.  Cackle the Cuda and Hay Dude (GB) have taken turns defeating each other at this class level in each of their last two starts.  The Backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 1 with 3 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 1,6 with ALL with 2,3,4,7 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6 with 1 with 3 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10 with 3 with 3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1 with 3 with 1,5,6,8 $2.00

Total: $57.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo