"If you wait for luck to turn up, life becomes very boring." - Mikhail Tal
It's Sunday; and that's about all I have by way of introduction. So let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - Md $8k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Deputy Ranger (Morning Line 15-1)
B's
# 4 Maii (ML 3-1)
# 5 Wyoming Chief (ML 4-1)
# 6 Uncontainable (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Beat the Chalk (ML 9-5)
# 3 Papa Caballero (ML 7-2)
# 7 All About Family (ML 15-1)
Deputy Ranger and Wyoming Chief are the only two runners in this field to have finished in the money last time out. Maii is a first time starter who had a sharp work over this track earlier this month. Uncontainable ran out of gas trying to go around two turns last time out; perhaps Uncontainable will move up with the reduction in real estate. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - Clm $32k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Nowhere Man (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Orchestral (ML 2-1)
# 5 Perfect Come Back (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Uninvited (ML 10-1)
# 4 Saxon Lord (ML 5-2)
# 6 Sunny Spot (ML 10-1)
Nowhere Man has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last eight races. The last time that Nowhere Man was offered for sale at today's price he missed victory by just a nose.
Orchestral may be over-matched at this class level; but the rail draw is a definite benefit for a runner as quick as Orchestral, and he projects to be the one that they'll have to catch to win. Perfect Come Back took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit over the main track at Del Mar. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Luck Is My Name (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 Majestic Star (ML 20-1)
# 8 Ballycastle (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 The White Shadow (ML 5-2)
# 3 King Atahualpa (ML 8-1)
# 4 Command the Moment (ML 6-1)
# 7 Sooner Better (ML 2-1)
Scratch # 6 Turret (ML 12-1)
These are juveniles, and they're all first time starters. The smart move is probably to just punch the "ALL" button; especially since, as this is leg three, there's no way of knowing which runner is going to attract attention in the Win Pool. So if your budget allows, you may want to give strong consideration to just buying this race.
Luck Is My Name has posted a couple of sharp workouts over this main track. Luck Is My Name is out of Echo Harbor, who has produced seven winners out of seven starters. Since Luck Is My Name was sired by Lookin At Lucky, that makes him a full brother to One Lucky Dane, Place finisher in the 2015 Santa Anita Derby.
Majestic Star is by Majesticperfection, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking. Ballycastle is trained by Roger Hansen, who occasionally gets home debut runners at very nice prices. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - Alw 4000s - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Speed Saver (ML 8-5)
B’s
# 6 Colour Me Happy (GB) (ML 7-2)
# 7 Carolina Island (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Mark Ye Well (ML 15-1)
# 2 Presidentsky (ML 10-1)
# 3 Majestic Journey (ML 20-1)
# 5 Get Like Me (ML 3-1)
Note for future reference that, unlike many Starter Allowances run in California, this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry. So any runner that has started for a claiming price of $4k or less, either this year or last, is eligible to run here.
I gave a lot of thought to using Speed Saver as a single here, as he won easily last time out for $12.5k, and now goes first off the claim for Trainer Jonathan Wong. But ultimately I decided to use a couple more in this leg; and, well, we'll just have to see how that works out.
Colour Me Happy (GB) goes first off the claim for Jamey Thomas, who tends to do well with such. Carolina Island was a winner by a nose at this class level last time out, albeit over the dirt track at Pleasanton. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 2 with 1 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,5,6 with 1,2,5 with 1,5,8 with 4,6,7 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,7 with 2 with 1 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,4,6 with 1 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2 with 2,3,4,7 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2 with 1 with 1,2,3,5 $2.00
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:45 EDT / 3:45 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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