9/29/18 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Opening Weekend down in Arcardia, California.  Indeed, it's Super Saturday, with a quartet of Grade 1 stakes, all in preparation for the Breeders' Cup, which is just five weeks away.  So why am I still playing Golden Gate?  Because, while I don't consider myself the superstitious type, one thing I've learned, not just in handicapping but in life in general, is that you don't mess with a streak.  So come what may, my action over the next two days will be upstate, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 7 - Clm $20k N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Defiantly (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 4 Street Moxie (ML 3-1)
# 6 Dano's Dream (ML 2-1)

C's

# 1 Home Run Kitten (ML 8-1)
# 3 Kenzou's Rhythm (ML 10-1)
# 5 Rate for Me (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 2 Crystal Dome (GB) (ML 15-1)

Defiantly is moving up in class after getting his picture taken last time out; but Defiantly's recent form shows that he fits well at this class level.  Among those dropping in class, Street Moxie looks to be  the one most likely to get to wire first.  Dano's Dream could dominate here if he can return to the form that he showed this past Spring.

I've relegated the rest of the field to backup "C" Selections; but if you have the budget for a bigger play, you may want to give serious thought to spreading much wider than I did, as this does look to be a very competitive race.

RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Candycane Kate (ML 6-1)

B's

# 3 Brahms Command (ML 4-1)
# 4 Aquina's Advice (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Respect My Candor (ML 12-1)
# 5 Moon Rocket (ML 5-2)
# 6 Sarazona Two (ML 15-1)
# 7 Bluegrass Prize (ML 6-1)
# 8 Irish Affair (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 2 Empressive Cat (ML 12-1)

Brahms Command crossed under the wire a head in front of Candycane Kate in their mutual debuts last time out; but I decided to make Candycane Kate my "A" Selection here because runners conditioned by Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer tend to improve significantly in their second career tries.

Aquina's Advice is a first time starter sired by Violence, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) Alw 4000s - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Brite Echo (ML 2-1)
# 9 Bolt Up (ML 9-5)

B’s

# 3 Victoriously Jewel (ML 12-1)
# 6 Lady Chrome (ML 8-1)
# 8 Handful of Pearls (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Pop Fizz Clink (ML 12-1)
# 2 Pulpit Gold (ML 30-1)
# 4 Norwegian Spy (ML 9-2)
# 10 Khalaya (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 5 Rossmoor Way (ML 30-1)

Note for future reference that, unlike many Starter Allowances run in California, this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry.  So any runner that has started for a claiming price of $4k or less, either this year or last, is eligible to run here.

Brite Echo and Bolt Up have taken turns defeating each other in each of their last two races; and there's just not enough to choose between the two of them to justify making one an "A" Selection over the other.

Victoriously Jewel took the show against more expensive stock last time out.  Lady Chrome defeated open claimers last time out (EDIT: sorry, should have said conditioned claimers), albeit for a different barn.  Handful of Pearls could upset if she can rate in the early going.

RACE 10 - (F) Clm $20k N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Pure Perfection (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Our Renee (ML 8-1)
# 10 Shari (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Sing in the Wind (ML 20-1)
# 3 Madame Warrior (ML 8-1)
# 4 Miss Shirley C (ML 4-1)
# 6 Star Dreamin (ML 5-1)
# 7 Girlsintheoffice (ML 20-1)
# 8 Christiana's Song (ML 3-1)
# 9 Red Glitter (ML 15-1)

Pure Perfection enters this contest with a three race winning streak, the most recent coming over this main track against open claimers.  Our Renee could improve with the stretch out.  Shari closed well last time out while finishing a little over a length behind Pure Perfection.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 9 with 7,9 with 5 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6,7 with 3,4,9 with 3,6,7,8,9 with 2,5,10 $67.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,5 with 9 with 7,9 with 5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,5,6,7,8 with 7,9 with 5 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 1,2,4,10 with 5 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 7,9 with 1,3,4,6,7,8,9 $7.00

Total: $86.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:24 EDT / 4:24 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo