Race 8 - The Awesome Again - # 4 Shared Belief (Final Odds 0.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Unzip Me - # 3 Alexis Tangier (6.10) - No Selection
Race 10 - The Chandelier - # 4 Angela Renee (2.60) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 7 Papacoolpapacool (1.00) - "A" Selection
Shared Belief ran an incredible race in winning The Awesome Again, being forced ten wide around the first turn, fifteen wide down the backstretch, and twenty wide around the final turn.
Okay; perhaps not that wide. But in a handicap match that could have been booked by WWE, it sure seemed that the Jerry Hollendorfer trained Shared Belief was being forced out into the outermost lane of the track for most of the contest by the Bob Baffert trained # 2 Sky Kingdom (36.50). And yet, despite being forced to take the scenic route around the track, Shared Belief was still able to remain undefeated, hitting the wire a neck in front of the other Bob Baffert trained runner, # 1 Fed Biz (6.60). Just an incredible effort by Shared Belief.
As for our Pick Four play, the Unzip Me Stakes saw one of our "A" Selections, # 8 Stars Above Me (GB) (2.70) lead the field for most of the charge down the hill, only to be passed in the stretch on the outside by another of our "A" Selections, # 9 Gender Agenda (GB) (6.60) and on the inside by Alexis Tangier. The margin was close, as Alexis Tangier hit the wire just a neck in front of Gender Agenda; but that neck was all the difference between us cashing and us watching our tickets turn into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 3 / 4 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $40.10 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 27, 2014
9/27/14 Belmont Park All Grade 1 Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - The Flower Bowl - # 9 Stephanie's Kitten (Final Odds 1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Vosburgh - # 7 Private Zone (5.90) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic - # 5 Main Sequence (1.95) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Jockey Club Gold Cup - # 8 Tonalist (3.05*) - "C" Selection
We were correct to have our suspicions about # 1 Palace (1.35*) in the Vosburgh; unfortunately we looked for backup in the wrong places, as the three "C" Selections that we had backing up Palace all finished in back of him. Meanwhile, Private Zone becomes just the third horse in the seventy-five runnings of the Vosburgh to win the event in back-to-back years (for those curious, the other two are Sewickley and Dr. Fager; thanks to DRF's David Grening for that bit of information).
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 7 / 5 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $159.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Vosburgh - # 7 Private Zone (5.90) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic - # 5 Main Sequence (1.95) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Jockey Club Gold Cup - # 8 Tonalist (3.05*) - "C" Selection
We were correct to have our suspicions about # 1 Palace (1.35*) in the Vosburgh; unfortunately we looked for backup in the wrong places, as the three "C" Selections that we had backing up Palace all finished in back of him. Meanwhile, Private Zone becomes just the third horse in the seventy-five runnings of the Vosburgh to win the event in back-to-back years (for those curious, the other two are Sewickley and Dr. Fager; thanks to DRF's David Grening for that bit of information).
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 7 / 5 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $159.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/27/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Super Saturday - West Coast Version: Time now to take a look at the final four races on the card at Santa Anita.
RACE 8 - The Awesome Again (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Shared Belief (Morning Line 3-5)
C’s
# 1 Fed Biz (ML 6-1)
# 6 Majestic Harbor (ML 5-1)
Shared Belief, undefeated in six career races, winner of the Grade 1 Pacific Classic last time out, and the horse that has everyone wondering "What if he had been healthy enough to run in the Triple Crown races?". He's a great one, no doubt about it; but he's yet to beat older horses on real dirt, and he's yet to win at Santa Anita. Perhaps those are just a couple of trivial bits of information; but perhaps they suggest that some caution is advised before going all-in on this three year old.
Fed Biz, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, has shown a flexible running style, winning the Grade 2 San Diego and the Grade 2 San Fernando by wiring the field, while winning the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien by closing from the clouds.
Majestic Harbor won the Used to be Hollywood Gold Cup two starts back, and the Grade 3 Tokyo City two starts prior to that, both over this main track. Needless to say, Majestic Harbor didn't much care for the artificial stuff at Del Mar in his last start.
RACE 9 - (F) The Unzip Me $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 4 On the Backstreets (ML 9-5)
# 8 Stars Above Me (ML 5-2)
# 9 Gender Agenda (ML 6-1)
C's
None
On the Backstreets, trained by Peter Miller and ridden by Rafael Bejarano, has won all three of her races charging down the hill, the last two against listed stakes company.
Stars Above Me ships in from New York for Trainer Graham Motion after suffering a couple of bad trips in two races over the Saratoga turf course; one of which she won by daylight anyway.
Gender Agenda was a winner last time out in what was simultaneously her North American debut and her first start of 2014. Gender Agenda may regress off that effort today, but the turnback in distance (even with the right and left turns) may help her hold her form.
RACE 10 - (F) The Chandelier (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Conquest Eclipse (ML 7-2)
# 4 Angela Renee (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Sunday Sonnet (ML 6-1)
# 5 Sharla Rae (ML 12-1)
# 8 Manahatta (ML 12-1)
# 10 Dad's Princess (ML 8-1)
Conquest Eclipse took the Show in the Del Mar Debutante her last time out. Angela Renee ships in for Trainer Todd Pletcher from New York after finishing in the money in a pair of Graded Stakes her last two times out.
Sunday Sonnet comes in from New York for Trainer Kelly Breen. Sunday Sonnet could be early speed on the rail today.
Sharla Rae is the only runner in this field with multiple Wins. Manahatta, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, may appreciate the stretch out to two turns, as well as the switch to real dirt. Dad's Princess made a nice middle move in the Del Mar Debutante, and should also appreciate the stretch out in distance.
RACE 11 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Nakamoto (ML 4-1)
# 7 Papacoolpapacool (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 4 Borealis Breeze (ML 8-1)
RACE 8 - The Awesome Again (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Shared Belief (Morning Line 3-5)
C’s
# 1 Fed Biz (ML 6-1)
# 6 Majestic Harbor (ML 5-1)
Shared Belief, undefeated in six career races, winner of the Grade 1 Pacific Classic last time out, and the horse that has everyone wondering "What if he had been healthy enough to run in the Triple Crown races?". He's a great one, no doubt about it; but he's yet to beat older horses on real dirt, and he's yet to win at Santa Anita. Perhaps those are just a couple of trivial bits of information; but perhaps they suggest that some caution is advised before going all-in on this three year old.
Fed Biz, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, has shown a flexible running style, winning the Grade 2 San Diego and the Grade 2 San Fernando by wiring the field, while winning the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien by closing from the clouds.
Majestic Harbor won the Used to be Hollywood Gold Cup two starts back, and the Grade 3 Tokyo City two starts prior to that, both over this main track. Needless to say, Majestic Harbor didn't much care for the artificial stuff at Del Mar in his last start.
RACE 9 - (F) The Unzip Me $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 4 On the Backstreets (ML 9-5)
# 8 Stars Above Me (ML 5-2)
# 9 Gender Agenda (ML 6-1)
C's
None
On the Backstreets, trained by Peter Miller and ridden by Rafael Bejarano, has won all three of her races charging down the hill, the last two against listed stakes company.
Stars Above Me ships in from New York for Trainer Graham Motion after suffering a couple of bad trips in two races over the Saratoga turf course; one of which she won by daylight anyway.
Gender Agenda was a winner last time out in what was simultaneously her North American debut and her first start of 2014. Gender Agenda may regress off that effort today, but the turnback in distance (even with the right and left turns) may help her hold her form.
RACE 10 - (F) The Chandelier (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Conquest Eclipse (ML 7-2)
# 4 Angela Renee (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Sunday Sonnet (ML 6-1)
# 5 Sharla Rae (ML 12-1)
# 8 Manahatta (ML 12-1)
# 10 Dad's Princess (ML 8-1)
Conquest Eclipse took the Show in the Del Mar Debutante her last time out. Angela Renee ships in for Trainer Todd Pletcher from New York after finishing in the money in a pair of Graded Stakes her last two times out.
Sunday Sonnet comes in from New York for Trainer Kelly Breen. Sunday Sonnet could be early speed on the rail today.
Sharla Rae is the only runner in this field with multiple Wins. Manahatta, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, may appreciate the stretch out to two turns, as well as the switch to real dirt. Dad's Princess made a nice middle move in the Del Mar Debutante, and should also appreciate the stretch out in distance.
RACE 11 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Nakamoto (ML 4-1)
# 7 Papacoolpapacool (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 4 Borealis Breeze (ML 8-1)
Nakamoto finished in the money in each of his last two races, both at this class level. Papacoolpapacool missed by less than a length last time out in the Oak Leaf Juvenile Turf.
Borealis Breeze, trained by Thomas Proctor and ridden by Drayden Van Dyke, takes a big step up from Maiden Claiming to Maiden Not For Sale; but the move to turf coupled with the stretch out in distance should still make for a much improved performance. Also note that runners for Trainer Proctor win approximately a fifth of the time in their second career starts.
OK, that's the analysis. I'm going to deviate a bit from the usual Crist method, because 1) I'm not completely sold on Shared Belief; and, 2) I think the Chandelier is a real chaos race. So, I'll be playing one ticket of all "A's", but for the minimum wager amount, and one ticket caveman style; giving us the following:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,8,9 with 2,4 with 2,7 $6.00
All A and C Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6 with 4,8,9 with 1,2,4,5,8,10 with 2,4,7 $81.00
Total: $87.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:00 EDT / 4:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/27/14 Belmont Park All Grade 1 Pick Four - Preview
Super Saturday - East Coast Version: A tremendous day of horse racing, as Belmont Park is offering a card featuring six Graded Stakes, including a Pick Four of all Grade 1 events. So let's get to it.
RACE 7 - (F) The Flower Bowl (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf
A’s
# 1 Abaco (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Viva Rafaela (ML 5-1)
# 4 Strathnaver (ML 4-1)
# 9 Stephanie's Kitten (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Abaco won the Grade 2 Ballston Spa up in Saratoga her last time out. Abaco has finished in the Exacta in all five of her starts on the Belmont grass.
Viva Rafaela is a speedster that may find herself all alone on the front end for a significant portion of this race, if not its entirety. Grade 1 turf routes aren't often stolen on the front end, but I like Viva Rafaela's chances of doing just that today, especially when considering that this contest will be on the Inner Turf Course.
Strathnaver missed winning the Grade 2 Ballston Spa by just a neck, and the Grade 1 Just a Game by just a nose. Jockey Joel Rosario, who was on board Strathnaver for her last Graded Stakes victory, will be on her back again today.
Stephanie's Kitten is one of three going for Trainer Chad Brown in this event. Stephanie's Kitten won her first two starts of 2013 (both, interestingly enough, on grass that was less than firm); she has not won since. Stephanie's Kitten took the Place in the Grade 1 Beverly D as well as the Grade 1 Diana in her last two starts, so she's not done yet; but she's also not the force that she once was in this division.
RACE 8 - The Vosburgh (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Palace (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 2 Coup de Grace (ML 8-1)
# 4 Salutos Amigos (ML 6-1)
# 6 Happy My Way (ML 3-1)
Palace, winner of three of his last four races, all in Graded Stakes competition, is probably a standout here. Palace has finished in the Exacta in all five of his starts on the Belmont Park main track. In addition, Palace should be flattered by today's race shape, as there looks to be a lot of early speed here that he can close into. So why not save some money and drop the "C" Selections? Good question, and one I may be asking myself over and over again after this race is run. But looking at the race now, it's not too hard to envision a scenario where Palace gets trapped in on the rail and finds himself surrounded by a wall of horses in the stretch, unable to get through in time. Had Palace drawn a Post Position more towards the outside he probably would be a single on my tickets; but with him having to break from the rail, I think caution is advised; hence the use of the "C" Selections.
Coup de Grace won the Grade 2 Amsterdam two starts back. As Coup de Grace does his best running late, the faster the frontrunners go early, the better his chances today.
Salutos Amigos has been earning Speed Figures (both Beyer and Brisnet) that make him competitive against this level of competition; so he should fare well today, even with the rise in class. Salutos Amigos should probably be used underneath in your vertical wagers, rather than on top; but if there is a total pace meltdown, Salutos Amigos has a late running style that just might get him into the Winner's Circle today.
Happy My Way has finished in the Exacta in each of his last six races, and led most of the way in the Grade 1 A G Vanderbilt last time out before having to settle for the Place behind Palace. Happy My Way is probably the speed of the speed here, and that bullet work on the 18th over this main track suggests that he'll be ready to fire right out of the gate again today.
RACE 9 - The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Widener Turf Course
A’s
# 2 Twilight Eclipse (ML 4-1)
# 3 Imagining (ML 3-1)
# 5 Main Sequence (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 1 Big Blue Kitten / # 1A Real Solution (ML 5-2)
Main Sequence won the Grade 1 Sword Dancer his last time out, and took the Grade 1 United Nations two starts back. Twilight Eclipse finished less than a length behind Main Sequence in each of those events, while Imagining was just a head behind Main Sequence at the wire in the Sword Dancer. It would come as no surprise to me if those three were hit the wire together today.
Big Blue Kitten missed winning this event last year by a nose, after having won the 2013 runnings of the Sword Dancer and the United Nations. Big Blue Kitten has yet to show that form in 2014, but his back class must be respected. Real Solution, who we get as a two-for-one with Big Blue Kitten, won the Grade 1 Manhattan two starts back over this turf course.
RACE 10 - The Jockey Club Gold Cup (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Wicked Strong (ML 3-1)
# 11 Moreno (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 5 Prayer for Relief (ML 15-1)
# 8 Tonalist (ML 4-1)
Wicked Strong, winner of the Grade 2 Jim Dandy two starts back, missed by a nose of holding off a late charging V. E. Day last time out in the Grade 1 Travers. It's my opinion that Wicked Strong is the best horse in this race.
Moreno could find himself all alone early, especially since Tonalist will be removing the blinkers today. Moreno strikes me as a horse that should win more often than he does; but if Jockey Junior Alvarado can keep him focused today, Moreno just might lead this field from gate to wire.
Prayer for Relief has been showing an improving form, and his recent works over this main track suggest that he should be ready to fire today.
Tonalist sacrificed himself keeping Bayern honest early last time out in the Grade 1 Travers, and was still able to hold on for the Show at the wire. With the blinkers off today I don't expect Tonalist to be sitting that close to Moreno in this contest; which will probably benefit Tonalist's performance, but which may also allow Moreno to do as he pleases up front. Anyway, this is a talented horse that must be respected, even before one considers that he is a perfect two-for-two on this main track, both Wins coming in Graded Stakes.
# 10 V. E. Day (ML 5-1) benefitted from a perfect setup last time out in winning the Grade 1 Travers; I don't expect him to be that fortunate today. While V. E. Day is a talented runner, I don't see him as capable of defeating this field with its expected pace shape today; so if he wins, I lose.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 1,3,4,9 with 1 with 2,3,5 with 3,11 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,9 with 2,4,6 with 2,3,5 with 3,11 $36.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,9 with 1 with 1 with 3,11 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,9 with 1 with 2,3,5 with 5,8 $12.00
Total: $76.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:07 EDT / 1:07 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - (F) The Flower Bowl (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf
A’s
# 1 Abaco (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Viva Rafaela (ML 5-1)
# 4 Strathnaver (ML 4-1)
# 9 Stephanie's Kitten (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Abaco won the Grade 2 Ballston Spa up in Saratoga her last time out. Abaco has finished in the Exacta in all five of her starts on the Belmont grass.
Viva Rafaela is a speedster that may find herself all alone on the front end for a significant portion of this race, if not its entirety. Grade 1 turf routes aren't often stolen on the front end, but I like Viva Rafaela's chances of doing just that today, especially when considering that this contest will be on the Inner Turf Course.
Strathnaver missed winning the Grade 2 Ballston Spa by just a neck, and the Grade 1 Just a Game by just a nose. Jockey Joel Rosario, who was on board Strathnaver for her last Graded Stakes victory, will be on her back again today.
Stephanie's Kitten is one of three going for Trainer Chad Brown in this event. Stephanie's Kitten won her first two starts of 2013 (both, interestingly enough, on grass that was less than firm); she has not won since. Stephanie's Kitten took the Place in the Grade 1 Beverly D as well as the Grade 1 Diana in her last two starts, so she's not done yet; but she's also not the force that she once was in this division.
RACE 8 - The Vosburgh (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Palace (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 2 Coup de Grace (ML 8-1)
# 4 Salutos Amigos (ML 6-1)
# 6 Happy My Way (ML 3-1)
Palace, winner of three of his last four races, all in Graded Stakes competition, is probably a standout here. Palace has finished in the Exacta in all five of his starts on the Belmont Park main track. In addition, Palace should be flattered by today's race shape, as there looks to be a lot of early speed here that he can close into. So why not save some money and drop the "C" Selections? Good question, and one I may be asking myself over and over again after this race is run. But looking at the race now, it's not too hard to envision a scenario where Palace gets trapped in on the rail and finds himself surrounded by a wall of horses in the stretch, unable to get through in time. Had Palace drawn a Post Position more towards the outside he probably would be a single on my tickets; but with him having to break from the rail, I think caution is advised; hence the use of the "C" Selections.
Coup de Grace won the Grade 2 Amsterdam two starts back. As Coup de Grace does his best running late, the faster the frontrunners go early, the better his chances today.
Salutos Amigos has been earning Speed Figures (both Beyer and Brisnet) that make him competitive against this level of competition; so he should fare well today, even with the rise in class. Salutos Amigos should probably be used underneath in your vertical wagers, rather than on top; but if there is a total pace meltdown, Salutos Amigos has a late running style that just might get him into the Winner's Circle today.
Happy My Way has finished in the Exacta in each of his last six races, and led most of the way in the Grade 1 A G Vanderbilt last time out before having to settle for the Place behind Palace. Happy My Way is probably the speed of the speed here, and that bullet work on the 18th over this main track suggests that he'll be ready to fire right out of the gate again today.
RACE 9 - The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Widener Turf Course
A’s
# 2 Twilight Eclipse (ML 4-1)
# 3 Imagining (ML 3-1)
# 5 Main Sequence (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 1 Big Blue Kitten / # 1A Real Solution (ML 5-2)
Main Sequence won the Grade 1 Sword Dancer his last time out, and took the Grade 1 United Nations two starts back. Twilight Eclipse finished less than a length behind Main Sequence in each of those events, while Imagining was just a head behind Main Sequence at the wire in the Sword Dancer. It would come as no surprise to me if those three were hit the wire together today.
Big Blue Kitten missed winning this event last year by a nose, after having won the 2013 runnings of the Sword Dancer and the United Nations. Big Blue Kitten has yet to show that form in 2014, but his back class must be respected. Real Solution, who we get as a two-for-one with Big Blue Kitten, won the Grade 1 Manhattan two starts back over this turf course.
RACE 10 - The Jockey Club Gold Cup (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Wicked Strong (ML 3-1)
# 11 Moreno (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 5 Prayer for Relief (ML 15-1)
# 8 Tonalist (ML 4-1)
Wicked Strong, winner of the Grade 2 Jim Dandy two starts back, missed by a nose of holding off a late charging V. E. Day last time out in the Grade 1 Travers. It's my opinion that Wicked Strong is the best horse in this race.
Moreno could find himself all alone early, especially since Tonalist will be removing the blinkers today. Moreno strikes me as a horse that should win more often than he does; but if Jockey Junior Alvarado can keep him focused today, Moreno just might lead this field from gate to wire.
Prayer for Relief has been showing an improving form, and his recent works over this main track suggest that he should be ready to fire today.
Tonalist sacrificed himself keeping Bayern honest early last time out in the Grade 1 Travers, and was still able to hold on for the Show at the wire. With the blinkers off today I don't expect Tonalist to be sitting that close to Moreno in this contest; which will probably benefit Tonalist's performance, but which may also allow Moreno to do as he pleases up front. Anyway, this is a talented horse that must be respected, even before one considers that he is a perfect two-for-two on this main track, both Wins coming in Graded Stakes.
# 10 V. E. Day (ML 5-1) benefitted from a perfect setup last time out in winning the Grade 1 Travers; I don't expect him to be that fortunate today. While V. E. Day is a talented runner, I don't see him as capable of defeating this field with its expected pace shape today; so if he wins, I lose.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 1,3,4,9 with 1 with 2,3,5 with 3,11 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,9 with 2,4,6 with 2,3,5 with 3,11 $36.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,9 with 1 with 1 with 3,11 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,9 with 1 with 2,3,5 with 5,8 $12.00
Total: $76.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:07 EDT / 1:07 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, September 25, 2014
9/21/14 LRC R9 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
My apologies for being late out of the gate on this, but Paralyzing Eyes, the maiden mare trained by Bruce Jackson that we've been following since June 2012, made her 2014 debut Sunday. Competing in the final race of the September meet at Los Alamitos Race Course, Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 46.30), ridden by Jockey Iggy Puglisi, posted the best result of her fourteen race career. Running against fellow maidens for a $20k price tag, Paralyzing Eyes ran a stalking trip where she finished well behind the winner, Acategoryfivestorm (2.10*), but over a length clear of the rest of the field for the Place.
We'll be watching to see if Paralyzing Eyes can improve off that effort her next time out and perhaps shed the "Career Maiden" label.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
We'll be watching to see if Paralyzing Eyes can improve off that effort her next time out and perhaps shed the "Career Maiden" label.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 21, 2014
9/21/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Pick Five - Results
Race 1 - # 2 Every May (Final Odds 2.20) - "A" Selection
Race 2 - # 10 Valdirone (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 1 Song to You (6.10) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 3 Sandy's Song (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - The Las Madrinas - # 4 Irish Presence (2.30) - "C" Selection
As I mentioned in a post a couple of weeks ago, it's always nice to be holding four Aces. It's also always nice to have Providence on your side; as it seems we did indeed release all the bad luck out of our system yesterday, because we sure were rewarded with a lot of good fortune today.
Every May refused to load in the opening leg; got loose; and ran around the seven furlong chute for a couple minutes before finally being corralled right before the start of Race 1. Didn't matter, as he was very much the best.
# 4 Rusty Road (8.50), who was nowhere to be found on our tickets, did all the heavy lifting in Race 3, leading every step of the way from out of the gate right up until the wire, where he was nipped in a head bob by Song to You. So, yeah, luck was definitely on our side today.
For the record, here are the Will Pays for the other three horses in the field in the finale; the two "A" Selections that we had covered for two dollars, and the other "C" Selection that we had fifty cents on:
$2 Pick Five Will Pays
# 3 Legacy (2.00) $799.20
# 5 My Happy Face (1.30*) $646.40
$0.50 Pick Five Will Pays
# 1 Zilber (5.80) $951.75
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a Pick Five sequence of 2 / 10 / 1 / 3 / 4 which paid $352.60 for a fifty cent wager. I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 2 - # 10 Valdirone (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 1 Song to You (6.10) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 3 Sandy's Song (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - The Las Madrinas - # 4 Irish Presence (2.30) - "C" Selection
As I mentioned in a post a couple of weeks ago, it's always nice to be holding four Aces. It's also always nice to have Providence on your side; as it seems we did indeed release all the bad luck out of our system yesterday, because we sure were rewarded with a lot of good fortune today.
Every May refused to load in the opening leg; got loose; and ran around the seven furlong chute for a couple minutes before finally being corralled right before the start of Race 1. Didn't matter, as he was very much the best.
# 4 Rusty Road (8.50), who was nowhere to be found on our tickets, did all the heavy lifting in Race 3, leading every step of the way from out of the gate right up until the wire, where he was nipped in a head bob by Song to You. So, yeah, luck was definitely on our side today.
For the record, here are the Will Pays for the other three horses in the field in the finale; the two "A" Selections that we had covered for two dollars, and the other "C" Selection that we had fifty cents on:
$2 Pick Five Will Pays
# 3 Legacy (2.00) $799.20
# 5 My Happy Face (1.30*) $646.40
$0.50 Pick Five Will Pays
# 1 Zilber (5.80) $951.75
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a Pick Five sequence of 2 / 10 / 1 / 3 / 4 which paid $352.60 for a fifty cent wager. I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/21/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Pick Five - Preview
We're shifting our attention back to the West Coast from Philadelphia PA, as Sunday marks the final day of the "These Dates Used To Belong To Pomona" Meet at Los Alamitos Race Course. I decided as a little change of pace that I'd take a run at the Pick Five rather than the Late Pick Four; perhaps due to fatigue, or maybe I just needed to balance the takeout ledger from Parx's unseemly high rake to the much more player friendly SoCal Pick Five. Anyway, be forewarned that the sequence looks very chalky; at least to my eyes.
RACE 1 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Every May (Morning Line 8-5)
C’s
# 1 Star Actor (ML 4-1)
# 3 Life On Riviera (ML 7-2)
Every May missed by half a length at first asking last time out, earning a Brisnet Speed Figure well within spitting range of par for this class level. Trainer Simon Callaghan gets approximately 17% winners from his runners making their second career start, with a positive ROI.
Star Actor is a debut runner by Mineshaft, whose progeny win at first asking approximately 8% of the time. Star Actor is trained by Bob Baffert, whose debut starters win approximately one fourth of the time.
Life On Riviera is trained by Peter Miller, who gets approximately 20% winners from his first time starters. Life On Riviera was sired by Hold Me Back, whose progeny win approximately 20% of their debuts.
RACE 2 - Clm $6.25k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Monastic (ML 9-2)
# 8 Single Launch (ML 10-1)
# 10 Valdirone (ML 1-1)
C's
# 2 Fly High (ML 4-1)
# 3 Country Hero (ML 8-1)
RACE 1 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Every May (Morning Line 8-5)
C’s
# 1 Star Actor (ML 4-1)
# 3 Life On Riviera (ML 7-2)
Every May missed by half a length at first asking last time out, earning a Brisnet Speed Figure well within spitting range of par for this class level. Trainer Simon Callaghan gets approximately 17% winners from his runners making their second career start, with a positive ROI.
Star Actor is a debut runner by Mineshaft, whose progeny win at first asking approximately 8% of the time. Star Actor is trained by Bob Baffert, whose debut starters win approximately one fourth of the time.
Life On Riviera is trained by Peter Miller, who gets approximately 20% winners from his first time starters. Life On Riviera was sired by Hold Me Back, whose progeny win approximately 20% of their debuts.
RACE 2 - Clm $6.25k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Monastic (ML 9-2)
# 8 Single Launch (ML 10-1)
# 10 Valdirone (ML 1-1)
C's
# 2 Fly High (ML 4-1)
# 3 Country Hero (ML 8-1)
Monastic took the Show against more expensive over this main track last time out. The cutback in distance should help, as Monastic was briefly in the lead last time out before weakening in the stretch.
Single Launch was the Post Time Favorite last time out against stiffer competition than he'll be facing today. Single Launch is two-for-four lifetime over a fast dirt track, and has finished in the Trifecta in five of his eight career starts.
Both of Valdirone's career wins came against state bred competition. Valdirone has had two career races against non-state bred restricted competition, and was the defeated Post Time Favorite in both of them. Indeed, Valdirone has bee the beaten Post Time Favorite in exactly half of his eight prior career starts. Valdirone is certainly a solid contender here, and he should do well on the class drop; but I don't see him having an advantage over the rest of the field that would warrant making him the on odds-on Favorite.
Fly High returns from an extended vacation, having been on the shelf since breaking his maiden in January. Runners trained by Doug O'Neill win fewer than 10% of their races when coming back from layoffs greater than ninety days; but O'Neill does do well when placing his maiden breakers for their first start against winners, and the Brisnet Speed Figure earned by Fly High his last time out is well above par for this class level.
Country Hero took the Show at this level his last time out, and defeated $5k open claimers under the lights here back in April. I don't know if Country Hero can last the entire five and a half furlongs, but early speed like his should always be respected on a fast dirt track, especially at these lower class levels.
RACE 3 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Song to You (ML 3-1)
# 5 Full Dancer (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 2 Celebrity Status (ML 2-1)
Song to You has finished in the Trifecta all four times that he's competed on a fast dirt track. Full Dancer is six-for-eight lifetime on a fast dirt track. Both Song to You and Full Dancer have been competitive against this level of competition or better on dirt.
Celebrity Status has competed at this class level in each of his last five races, finishing in the money in four of those five without getting his picture taken once. It would appear that Celebrity Status is the type willing to settle for a minor reward; but perhaps the move back to dirt coupled with a stretchout in distance will give him the spark he needs to win today.
RACE 4 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Sandy's Song (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Yes She's a Dancer (ML 8-1)
# 5 Satin Cinnamon (ML 10-1)
# 7 Natalie's Wonder (ML 7-2)
# 10 Indian Princess (ML 10-1)
Sandy's Song took the Place last time out at this level, and the Show in her debut the start before that. If she continues to improve, or even just repeats that last performance, Sandy's Song should get her picture taken today.
Yes She's a Dancer took the Place at this level last time out over this main track. Satin Cinnamon goes up in class after competing for a $50k tag, but the speed figure she earned in that one puts her with the contenders here, and she may improve with the move to real dirt.
Natalie's Wonder and Indian Princess are a pair of first time starters by sires (Tiz Wonderful and Indian Charlie, respectively) whose progeny do exceptionally well at first asking.
RACE 5 - (F) The Las Madrinas $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Legacy (ML 2-1)
# 5 My Happy Face (ML 6-5)
C's
# 1 Zilber (ML 8-1)
# 4 Irish Presence (ML 7-2)
Legacy was a listed stakes winner at today's distance over this main track two starts back. My Happy Face's last five dirt starts were all against Graded Stakes company, and she finished in the Superfecta in each of them.
Zilber is a Graded Stakes winner in her native Brazil. This will be her first North American start on real dirt. Irish Presence finished in front of Legacy back in May in the Grade 3 Adoration Stakes.
OK, that's the analysis. As usual, we're going to play our tickets using the Crist method, except that we're going to double our normal "All A Entries" ticket purchase from one dollar to two, in recognition of how chalky I expect this sequence to be. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$2.00 P5: 2 with 1,8,10 with 1,5 with 3 with 3,5 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 1,3 with 1,8,10 with 1,5 with 3 with 3,5 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 2,3 with 1,5 with 3 with 3,5 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 1,8,10 with 2 with 3 with 3,5 $3.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 1,8,10 with 1,5 with 2,5,7,10 with 3,5 $24.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 1,8,10 with 1,5 with 3 with 1,4 $6.00
Total: $73.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 5:00 EDT / 2:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 20, 2014
9/20/14 LRC R2 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the longshot claim that we've been following, made it three Wins in a row for Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo Saturday; but that's not all. City Chapel (Final Odds 12.90) not only "stubbornly lasted" (in the words of the chart caller) to cross the wire a half length in front of Dewrag (12.60), but he also set a new track record for Los Alamitos Race Course, covering the seven furlongs in 1:21.78. Not too shabby for a horse that was claimed for $4k out of a race in which he went to post at Final Odds of over 29-1.
The Win Saturday was worth $16,200 to the connections of City Chapel, thus bringing his total earning for the Trujillo barn since being claimed for $4,000 to over $100k; $109,605 to be exact.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The Win Saturday was worth $16,200 to the connections of City Chapel, thus bringing his total earning for the Trujillo barn since being claimed for $4,000 to over $100k; $109,605 to be exact.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/20/14 Parx Racing Late Pick Four - Results
Race 9 - The Alphabet Soup - # 5 Edge of Reality (Final Odds 3.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Gallant Bob - # 1 Favorite Tale (3.50) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Cotillion - # 8 Untapable (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - The Pennsylvania Derby - # 4 Bayern (3.50) - "C" Selection
If you're going to have a bad day, you might as well have all the bad that you can and just get it out of your system.
We thought The Alphabet Soup was a tough race to figure, so we punched the "ALL" button. Well the public had no problem figuring it out, as they bet the eventual winner down from third choice on the Morning Line to Post Time Favorite. We wasted money putting backup "C" Selections with the Un-Beatable, Un-Topable, Un-Etc., Etc, Etc, Untapable, while failing to heed the warning in our own comments that # 1 California Chrome (0.90*) needed a race, and therefore should not have been a single "A" Selection in the finale.
For the record, had California Chrome won, the $0.50 Pick 4 would have paid $51.35; as we would have had it twice, we would have collected $102.70. But such was not to be, as California Chrome didn't fire; and what we foresaw as the most likely scenario if such was to happen came to pass, as Bayern just kept on leading the pack right into the Winner's Circle, setting a new track record in the process.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 1 / 8 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $104.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 10 - The Gallant Bob - # 1 Favorite Tale (3.50) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Cotillion - # 8 Untapable (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - The Pennsylvania Derby - # 4 Bayern (3.50) - "C" Selection
If you're going to have a bad day, you might as well have all the bad that you can and just get it out of your system.
We thought The Alphabet Soup was a tough race to figure, so we punched the "ALL" button. Well the public had no problem figuring it out, as they bet the eventual winner down from third choice on the Morning Line to Post Time Favorite. We wasted money putting backup "C" Selections with the Un-Beatable, Un-Topable, Un-Etc., Etc, Etc, Untapable, while failing to heed the warning in our own comments that # 1 California Chrome (0.90*) needed a race, and therefore should not have been a single "A" Selection in the finale.
For the record, had California Chrome won, the $0.50 Pick 4 would have paid $51.35; as we would have had it twice, we would have collected $102.70. But such was not to be, as California Chrome didn't fire; and what we foresaw as the most likely scenario if such was to happen came to pass, as Bayern just kept on leading the pack right into the Winner's Circle, setting a new track record in the process.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 1 / 8 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $104.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/20/14 Parx Racing Late Pick Four - Preview
One month after The Travers and six weeks before The Breeders' Cup the top three year olds get one more crack at each other in Saturday's Pennsylvania Derby, headlined by Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome. But that's the Grade 2 contest on the card; the Grade 1 event belongs to the fillies, as Untapable will try to prove yet again that (at least against female competition) she truly is unstoppable. Those two contests form half of an all-stakes Pick Four at Parx Saturday. Below is a look at the full sequence.
RACE 9 - [S] The Alphabet Soup $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
ALL
C’s
None
This is the type of race for which the "ALL" button was created. # 6 Roadhog (Morning Line 3-1) won this contest last year, but is winless in three tries on the grass so far this year. # 5 Edge of Reality (ML 5-1) is a Graded Stakes winner; but that's on dirt; he finished off the board in his lone prior try on turf.
# 2 Traffic Light (ML 6-1) and # 4 Page McKenney (ML 7-2) were both winners of state-bred stakes their respective last time out; but both those races were on dirt. # 8 El Capitan (ML 20-1) is a Grade 1 winner in Mexico, but this will be his first time on the grass.
# 9 Dancing Lounge (ML 12-1) has finished in the Exacta five of the six times that he's competed on this turf course. # 10 Atlantic Seaboard (ML 8-1) has defeated non-state restricted company on the grass; but as those were restricted claimers, it's probable (though not definite) that the class of those fields was below that which he'll be facing today.
# 1 Atheistane (ML 12-1) misses by a head of being a perfect two-for-two in his career on grass; but the turf was soft in both of those races, so it's unclear how Atheistane (who prefers the track off when racing on the dirt) will handle a firm turf course. # 11 Starry Moon (ML 10-1) will also be getting his first try at a turf course that's firm rather than yielding.
So, yeah, I'm just going to "ALL" out here.
RACE 10 - The Gallant Bob (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Fast Anna (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 1 Favorite Tale (ML 5-2)
# 4 Prudhoe Bay (ML 6-1)
# 5 Pure Sensation (ML 4-1)
Fast Anna's performance in the Grade 1 King's Bishop (where he missed victory by just a neck) dominates anything the rest of the field has done in their respective careers. A repeat of that performance would put Fast Anna in the Winner's Circle today.
Favorite Tale is a perfect three-for-three over this main track in his career, and has a listed stakes win at Belmont Park on his resume. Favorite Tale had a troubled trip last time out while losing to Prudhoe Bay, though I don't see how that merits Favorite Tale being listed at odds less than half that of the horse that defeated him.
Prudhoe Bay is the only Graded Stakes winner in today's field. Pure Sensation showed the ability to come from behind in winning a turf sprint two starts back. He also showed the ability to close in his debut over the main track at Saratoga last July. If Jockey Joel Rosario can get Pure Sensation to come from off the pace today then he will have a huge advantage over this field, which is chock full of frontrunners.
RACE 11 - (F) The Cotillion (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Untapable (ML 7-5)
C’s
# 2 Sweet Reason (ML 4-1)
# 7 Jojo Warrior (ML 6-1)
# 9 Stopchargingmaria (ML 7-2) has been scratched.
Is Untapable unbeatable? Well, she sure looked it earlier this year when she won four straight Graded Stakes by a combined thirty-one lengths. If you really, really, want to try to beat her, who do you do it with?
Well, there's Sweet Reason, a three-time Grade 1 Stakes winner in New York. Some have questioned the quality of the field in those last two victories, but it should be noted that Sweet Reason did defeat Stopchargingmaria in the Grade 1 Spinaway as a two year old.
Another option is the Bob Baffert trained Jojo Warrior, winner of the Grade 2 Summer Oaks at Santa Anita. Perhaps Jojo Warrior can do to Untapable today what Bayern did to her in The Haskell: grab the early lead and ride a speed bias into the Winner's Circle. So there are other possibilities here.
RACE 11 - The Pennsylvania Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 California Chrome (ML 1-1)
C’s
# 2 Candy Boy (ML 10-1)
# 4 Bayern (ML 7-2)
California Chrome is coming back from a layoff of over three months. He's never had to do that before, so maybe he'll need a race. Trainer Art Sherman wins less than 10% of the time he sends out a runner who's been away from the track for more than ninety days. Indeed, as you can see in this video on YouTube, Sherman admits that he doesn't know how California Chrome will react in his first start back off the layoff. So that's a pretty big question mark to deal with.
But you know what there is no question about, at least in my mind? California Chrome is clearly the best horse in this race; hands down. It's amazing just how close this horse came to winning the Triple Crown. Consider this: both Beyer's and Brisnet's Speed Figures agree that, despite getting his hoof stomped on right out of the gate, California Chrome actually earned a higher figure in the Belmont than he did in the Kentucky Derby. This is a horse with a lot of talent, and a lot of heart.
So if California Chrome is ready to run, he wins. I expect him and Bayern to criss-cross early, with Bayern grabbing the lead on the inside and California Chrome sitting off his flank on the outside. with California Chrome passing Bayern at the top of the stretch to cross the wire first. If California Chrome doesn't fire, then the most likely scenario is that Bayern just keeps on leading the pack right into the Winner's Circle. Excluding California Chrome, the only horses I can see that might possibly catch Bayern are Candy Boy and Tapiture. But keep in mind that all three of these (Bayern, Candy Boy, and Tapiture) have in the past shown themselves to be no match for California Chrome at his best.
OK, that's the analysis. Three single "A's" and one "ALL"; sure don't see that very often. I'm going to deviate a bit today from the usual Crist method, and play it as follows:
All Chalk Entries Early With Spread In Finale
$1.00 P4: 4,6 with 6 with 8 with 1,2,4,7 $8.00
Untapable / California Chrome Double With All A & C Entries
$0.50 P4: ALL with 1,4,5,6, with 8 with 1 $22.00
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: ALL with 6 with 8 with 1 $11.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: ALL with 1,4,5 with 8 with 1 $16.50
$0.50 P4: ALL with 6 with 2,7 with 1 $11.00
$0.50 P4: ALL with 6 with 8 with 2,4,7 $16.50
Total: $85.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 3:25 EDT / 12:25 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 9 - [S] The Alphabet Soup $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
ALL
C’s
None
This is the type of race for which the "ALL" button was created. # 6 Roadhog (Morning Line 3-1) won this contest last year, but is winless in three tries on the grass so far this year. # 5 Edge of Reality (ML 5-1) is a Graded Stakes winner; but that's on dirt; he finished off the board in his lone prior try on turf.
# 2 Traffic Light (ML 6-1) and # 4 Page McKenney (ML 7-2) were both winners of state-bred stakes their respective last time out; but both those races were on dirt. # 8 El Capitan (ML 20-1) is a Grade 1 winner in Mexico, but this will be his first time on the grass.
# 9 Dancing Lounge (ML 12-1) has finished in the Exacta five of the six times that he's competed on this turf course. # 10 Atlantic Seaboard (ML 8-1) has defeated non-state restricted company on the grass; but as those were restricted claimers, it's probable (though not definite) that the class of those fields was below that which he'll be facing today.
# 1 Atheistane (ML 12-1) misses by a head of being a perfect two-for-two in his career on grass; but the turf was soft in both of those races, so it's unclear how Atheistane (who prefers the track off when racing on the dirt) will handle a firm turf course. # 11 Starry Moon (ML 10-1) will also be getting his first try at a turf course that's firm rather than yielding.
So, yeah, I'm just going to "ALL" out here.
RACE 10 - The Gallant Bob (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Fast Anna (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 1 Favorite Tale (ML 5-2)
# 4 Prudhoe Bay (ML 6-1)
# 5 Pure Sensation (ML 4-1)
Fast Anna's performance in the Grade 1 King's Bishop (where he missed victory by just a neck) dominates anything the rest of the field has done in their respective careers. A repeat of that performance would put Fast Anna in the Winner's Circle today.
Favorite Tale is a perfect three-for-three over this main track in his career, and has a listed stakes win at Belmont Park on his resume. Favorite Tale had a troubled trip last time out while losing to Prudhoe Bay, though I don't see how that merits Favorite Tale being listed at odds less than half that of the horse that defeated him.
Prudhoe Bay is the only Graded Stakes winner in today's field. Pure Sensation showed the ability to come from behind in winning a turf sprint two starts back. He also showed the ability to close in his debut over the main track at Saratoga last July. If Jockey Joel Rosario can get Pure Sensation to come from off the pace today then he will have a huge advantage over this field, which is chock full of frontrunners.
RACE 11 - (F) The Cotillion (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Untapable (ML 7-5)
C’s
# 2 Sweet Reason (ML 4-1)
# 7 Jojo Warrior (ML 6-1)
# 9 Stopchargingmaria (ML 7-2) has been scratched.
Is Untapable unbeatable? Well, she sure looked it earlier this year when she won four straight Graded Stakes by a combined thirty-one lengths. If you really, really, want to try to beat her, who do you do it with?
Well, there's Sweet Reason, a three-time Grade 1 Stakes winner in New York. Some have questioned the quality of the field in those last two victories, but it should be noted that Sweet Reason did defeat Stopchargingmaria in the Grade 1 Spinaway as a two year old.
Another option is the Bob Baffert trained Jojo Warrior, winner of the Grade 2 Summer Oaks at Santa Anita. Perhaps Jojo Warrior can do to Untapable today what Bayern did to her in The Haskell: grab the early lead and ride a speed bias into the Winner's Circle. So there are other possibilities here.
RACE 11 - The Pennsylvania Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 California Chrome (ML 1-1)
C’s
# 2 Candy Boy (ML 10-1)
# 4 Bayern (ML 7-2)
# 7 Tapiture (ML 5-1)
But you know what there is no question about, at least in my mind? California Chrome is clearly the best horse in this race; hands down. It's amazing just how close this horse came to winning the Triple Crown. Consider this: both Beyer's and Brisnet's Speed Figures agree that, despite getting his hoof stomped on right out of the gate, California Chrome actually earned a higher figure in the Belmont than he did in the Kentucky Derby. This is a horse with a lot of talent, and a lot of heart.
So if California Chrome is ready to run, he wins. I expect him and Bayern to criss-cross early, with Bayern grabbing the lead on the inside and California Chrome sitting off his flank on the outside. with California Chrome passing Bayern at the top of the stretch to cross the wire first. If California Chrome doesn't fire, then the most likely scenario is that Bayern just keeps on leading the pack right into the Winner's Circle. Excluding California Chrome, the only horses I can see that might possibly catch Bayern are Candy Boy and Tapiture. But keep in mind that all three of these (Bayern, Candy Boy, and Tapiture) have in the past shown themselves to be no match for California Chrome at his best.
OK, that's the analysis. Three single "A's" and one "ALL"; sure don't see that very often. I'm going to deviate a bit today from the usual Crist method, and play it as follows:
All Chalk Entries Early With Spread In Finale
$1.00 P4: 4,6 with 6 with 8 with 1,2,4,7 $8.00
Untapable / California Chrome Double With All A & C Entries
$0.50 P4: ALL with 1,4,5,6, with 8 with 1 $22.00
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: ALL with 6 with 8 with 1 $11.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: ALL with 1,4,5 with 8 with 1 $16.50
$0.50 P4: ALL with 6 with 2,7 with 1 $11.00
$0.50 P4: ALL with 6 with 8 with 2,4,7 $16.50
Total: $85.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 3:25 EDT / 12:25 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 14, 2014
9/14/14 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results
Race 5 - # 9 Red Globe (Final Odds 5.80) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 11 Wild Delilah (5.20) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Harlan's Vitesse (6.80) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Quick and Silver (10.60) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Josephine's Moment (2.70*) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 7 Joylicious (2.60) - "A" Selection
Well, we needed # 8 Elda (1.00*) to win Race 6, as she was our only single on the ticket; and she didn't. Of course, as you can see by the above, it really didn't matter, as we missed two other races as well, giving us a .500 Winning Percentage on our ticket; which isn't going to cash for anything, anywhere. Perhaps a better paring of the contenders would have gotten us the winners of Race 6 and Race 9; but I can't imagine any scenario short of hitting the "ALL" button that would have gotten Quick and Silver onto our tickets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Six sequence of 9 / 11 / 2 / 7 / 8 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $3,530.48 for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 11 Wild Delilah (5.20) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Harlan's Vitesse (6.80) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 7 Quick and Silver (10.60) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Josephine's Moment (2.70*) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 7 Joylicious (2.60) - "A" Selection
Well, we needed # 8 Elda (1.00*) to win Race 6, as she was our only single on the ticket; and she didn't. Of course, as you can see by the above, it really didn't matter, as we missed two other races as well, giving us a .500 Winning Percentage on our ticket; which isn't going to cash for anything, anywhere. Perhaps a better paring of the contenders would have gotten us the winners of Race 6 and Race 9; but I can't imagine any scenario short of hitting the "ALL" button that would have gotten Quick and Silver onto our tickets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Six sequence of 9 / 11 / 2 / 7 / 8 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $3,530.48 for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/14/14 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview
Sunday marks the final day of the Summer Meet for Golden Gate Fields, which means a mandatory payout for the Golden Pick 6. So with that we head upstate and take a swing at getting a piece of the jackpot payout.
RACE 5 - Md $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Dare Many Things (Morning Line 20-1)
# 9 Red Globe (ML 6-1)
# 11 Stolen Property (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
Dare Mighty Things makes his second career start, his first on the grass. Dare Mighty Things has the best Tomlinson Turf Rating in this field, and his Tomlinson Rating for today's distance is second only to # 6 St. Marley (ML 12-1). Dare Mighty Things is trained by Jedd Josephson, who shows a positive ROI when sending out a runner for their first turf start, as well as when moving a runner from sprint to route.
Red Globe is oh-for-fifteen lifetime; and while that would normally merit an automatic toss, it's worth considering that most of that running was being done against much more expensive stock. Indeed, note Red Globe's total turf earnings of $35.5k in his 13 starts on the grass; that's a pretty neat haul for a horse that's yet to have his photo taken after a race.
Stolen Property closed well in his last turf start at Santa Anita in June, and the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned on the Santa Anita grass three back is better than the career best for any other runner in this field, excepting Red Globe.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $4k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 8 Elda (ML 5-2)
C's
None
RACE 5 - Md $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Dare Many Things (Morning Line 20-1)
# 9 Red Globe (ML 6-1)
# 11 Stolen Property (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
Dare Mighty Things makes his second career start, his first on the grass. Dare Mighty Things has the best Tomlinson Turf Rating in this field, and his Tomlinson Rating for today's distance is second only to # 6 St. Marley (ML 12-1). Dare Mighty Things is trained by Jedd Josephson, who shows a positive ROI when sending out a runner for their first turf start, as well as when moving a runner from sprint to route.
Red Globe is oh-for-fifteen lifetime; and while that would normally merit an automatic toss, it's worth considering that most of that running was being done against much more expensive stock. Indeed, note Red Globe's total turf earnings of $35.5k in his 13 starts on the grass; that's a pretty neat haul for a horse that's yet to have his photo taken after a race.
Stolen Property closed well in his last turf start at Santa Anita in June, and the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned on the Santa Anita grass three back is better than the career best for any other runner in this field, excepting Red Globe.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $4k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 8 Elda (ML 5-2)
C's
None
Elda missed by half a length over this track at this level at today's distance last time out, earning the best last out Beyer in this field in the process. Elda has finished in the Exacta in both of her prior starts on this main track. Russell Baze, who was on her back last time out, as well as for her only career victory, gets the mount again today.
RACE 7 - Clm $6.25k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Harlan's Vitesse (ML 10-1)
# 4 See Zo Go (ML 9-2)
# 8 Outdoorsman Gene (ML 3-1)
# 12 Falling Knife (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Harlan's Vitesse makes the move today from synthetic to the turf; Trainer John Martin wins with over a third of such. This will be Harlan's Vitesse's first start for Trainer Martin, whose Winning Percentage in that category if approximately .29.
See Zo Go won at this level last time out over this turf course, and today goes first off the claim for Trainer Bob Hess Jr, who wins with 30% of such. Outdoorsman Gene has five Wins in eight starts over this turf course. Outdoorsman Gene and Falling Knife are also dropping several rungs on the class ladder today.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 They Call Me Mr. P (ML 5-2)
# 4 Quetta's Toy (ML 8-1)
# 6 Bay Area (ML 5-1)
C’s
None
They Call Me Mr. P took the Place at this level last time at. He was getting to the winner late in that one; today he gets an extra half furlong to try again.
Quetta's Toy goes third off the layoff, after taking the Show at this level in each of his two prior starts.
Bay Area makes his debut for Trainer Gill Matos, who wins a quarter of the time with such. Bay Area was sired by Tannersmyman, whose progeny win approximately 15% of their initial contests.
RACE 9 - (F) Alw 40000s N2L X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 3 Aninata (ML 5-1)
# 9 Tale Me No Secrets (ML 4-1)
# 12 Emeraldcity Kitten (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Bit of a tricky condition here, as it's an N2L (non-winners of two races lifetime); but the "X" condition is that you're excused one win (and just one win) at $12.5k or lower. Incidentally, here's what may be the best tip you get all day from me: If you want to be a good Jockey Agent, it helps to be useful to the Trainers; and a good way to be useful to many Trainers is to help them decipher race conditions, and show them the best contests to slot their runners when the condition book comes out.
Aninata just missed by a head at this level at today's distance over this turf course last time out. Tale Me No Secrets finished right behind Aninata in that same contest, just a neck behind the winner.
Emeraldcity Kitten won for $12.5k her last time out; right at the cutoff, and since it was just her second career Win, she's eligible to compete in this contest. A repeat of that last out performance would almost definitely get the job done again today.
RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Her Again (ML 3-1)
# 5 Red Sole Diva (ML 9-2)
# 7 Joylicious (ML 7-2)
# 10 Hekawi (ML 12-1)
C’s
None
Her Again, Red Sole Diva, and Joylicious all exit the same last out race, having filled out the bottom three slots of the Superfecta in that contest.
Hekawi is a first time starter sired by Tribal Rule, whose progeny win approximately 14% of their debuts. Hekawi is a full sibling to J J's Jaguar, who won at first asking at Santa Anita in 2012. Hekawi is also a full sibling to Tribal Fire, who took the Place at Hollywood Park in her debut in 2007.
Not an ideal ticket, as I'd feel more comfortable if I could go deeper in Race 7, as that looks truly competitive. Also we could find only one single in the sequence, which makes this is a very complicated Win wager on Elda; 'cos if she don't win, we don't win. But it is what it is; and putting it all together, we get the following:
All A Entries
$0.20 P6: 4,9,11 with 8 with 2,4,8,12 with 3,4,6 with 3,9,12 with 4,5,7,10 $86.40
Total: $86.40
Post Time for Race 5 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 13, 2014
9/13/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 4 Macho Sox (Final Odds 2.70) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Brando the Birdman (6.80) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Barretts Debutante - # 3 Sharla Rae (5.00) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Roman Tizzy (5.50) - "A" Selection
# 2 Into Oblivion (0.30*) was certainly game in Saturday's feature race at LRC, but she just couldn't hold off Sharla Rae in the stretch, losing by a neck. And that neck was the difference between us cashing and not cashing; for while we had 'em all, we didn't have 'em all on any one ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 3 / 3 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $601.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 3 Brando the Birdman (6.80) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Barretts Debutante - # 3 Sharla Rae (5.00) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Roman Tizzy (5.50) - "A" Selection
# 2 Into Oblivion (0.30*) was certainly game in Saturday's feature race at LRC, but she just couldn't hold off Sharla Rae in the stretch, losing by a neck. And that neck was the difference between us cashing and not cashing; for while we had 'em all, we didn't have 'em all on any one ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 3 / 3 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $601.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/13/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Saturday, they're racing in SoCal, and that's pretty much all I've got as far as introductions go. So let's just get to it.
RACE 6 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Cinmars Dance (Morning Line 7-2)
# 7 Zackos My Man (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 Macho Sox (ML 5-2)
# 5 Prince of Paris (ML 5-1)
Note for future reference the N2L designation above; this contest is restricted to horses which have never won two races. For whatever reason, both Brisnet and the Daily Racing Form omit that bit of information from their Past Performances, which creates a very misleading impression of the class level of the entrants.
Cinmars Dance took the Show at this level two starts back, and should welcome the return to real dirt. Worth noting is the five furlong work on 9/4; not so much for the bullet, but because of the way it compares to earlier works by this runner at that same five furlong distance.
Zackos My Man comes back off the shelf since being (apparently) injured competing in May (interesting that a third of the field in that contest was eased). Zackos My Man has been working well leading up to today's event, and just might lead this pack all the way around the track.
Macho Sox took the Place his last time out at, at today's distance and at this class level. But that was on the grass; in addition, Macho Sox's lone win came over the Del Mar Polytrack. So the question here is how will Macho Sox handle the dirt. Macho Sox's works on dirt have not exactly been eye catching; but he is sired by Macho Uno, who won multiple Graded Stakes on dirt. If Macho Sox can carry his turf and synthetic form to dirt, he'll be right in the mix today.
Prince of Paris crossed the wire first against open $20k Claimers last time out, though he had to settle for the Place after a DQ. Prince of Paris' lone Win came at today's distance, and he has enough early foot to make him dangerous on dirt at this class level.
RACE 7 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Brando the Birdman (ML 4-1)
# 4 Omar (ML 6-1)
# 7 Johns Journey (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Sir Kip (ML 4-1)
# 6 Tribal Desert (ML 8-1)
Brando the Birdman defeated non-state restricted company last December in his only prior race on real dirt; and was promptly shelved for over half a year. This will be Brando the Birdman's second start off the layoff; note that Trainer Vann Belvoir wins approximately 18% with such.
Omar defeated open Allowance company (N1X) the last time that he competed on real dirt. I'm also willing to forgive that last effort, seeing as Omar took the scenic route around the Del Mar track, visiting every spot except the rail.
Johns Journey won in his only prior try at this track, against non-state restricted company. Johns Journey's Brisnet Speed Figures on dirt fit well in this field, and the outside post allows him to press and pounce as he did in that victory two starts back.
Sir Kip takes on winners for the first time today; but he broke his maiden by daylight, and must be respected as speed on the rail. Indeed, there seems to be quite a bit of early foot in this one; that sets up well for closer Tribal Desert.
RACE 8 - (F) The Barretts Debutante $100k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Into Oblivion (ML 7-5)
C's
# 3 Sharla Rae (ML 7-2)
The two first time starters for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, # 1 Dyna Star (ML 6-1) and # 7 Heat the Rocks (ML 10-1) have both been scratched.
RACE 6 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Cinmars Dance (Morning Line 7-2)
# 7 Zackos My Man (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 Macho Sox (ML 5-2)
# 5 Prince of Paris (ML 5-1)
Note for future reference the N2L designation above; this contest is restricted to horses which have never won two races. For whatever reason, both Brisnet and the Daily Racing Form omit that bit of information from their Past Performances, which creates a very misleading impression of the class level of the entrants.
Cinmars Dance took the Show at this level two starts back, and should welcome the return to real dirt. Worth noting is the five furlong work on 9/4; not so much for the bullet, but because of the way it compares to earlier works by this runner at that same five furlong distance.
Zackos My Man comes back off the shelf since being (apparently) injured competing in May (interesting that a third of the field in that contest was eased). Zackos My Man has been working well leading up to today's event, and just might lead this pack all the way around the track.
Macho Sox took the Place his last time out at, at today's distance and at this class level. But that was on the grass; in addition, Macho Sox's lone win came over the Del Mar Polytrack. So the question here is how will Macho Sox handle the dirt. Macho Sox's works on dirt have not exactly been eye catching; but he is sired by Macho Uno, who won multiple Graded Stakes on dirt. If Macho Sox can carry his turf and synthetic form to dirt, he'll be right in the mix today.
Prince of Paris crossed the wire first against open $20k Claimers last time out, though he had to settle for the Place after a DQ. Prince of Paris' lone Win came at today's distance, and he has enough early foot to make him dangerous on dirt at this class level.
RACE 7 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Brando the Birdman (ML 4-1)
# 4 Omar (ML 6-1)
# 7 Johns Journey (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Sir Kip (ML 4-1)
# 6 Tribal Desert (ML 8-1)
Brando the Birdman defeated non-state restricted company last December in his only prior race on real dirt; and was promptly shelved for over half a year. This will be Brando the Birdman's second start off the layoff; note that Trainer Vann Belvoir wins approximately 18% with such.
Omar defeated open Allowance company (N1X) the last time that he competed on real dirt. I'm also willing to forgive that last effort, seeing as Omar took the scenic route around the Del Mar track, visiting every spot except the rail.
Johns Journey won in his only prior try at this track, against non-state restricted company. Johns Journey's Brisnet Speed Figures on dirt fit well in this field, and the outside post allows him to press and pounce as he did in that victory two starts back.
Sir Kip takes on winners for the first time today; but he broke his maiden by daylight, and must be respected as speed on the rail. Indeed, there seems to be quite a bit of early foot in this one; that sets up well for closer Tribal Desert.
RACE 8 - (F) The Barretts Debutante $100k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Into Oblivion (ML 7-5)
C's
# 3 Sharla Rae (ML 7-2)
The two first time starters for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, # 1 Dyna Star (ML 6-1) and # 7 Heat the Rocks (ML 10-1) have both been scratched.
Note that this stakes race is restricted, as only those two year old fillies who were offered for sale at a Barretts auction are eligible.
Into Oblivion is a standout here; well, as much of a standout as a two year old filly with only one prior start can be. Into Oblivion won her debut easily, earning a Brisnet Speed Figure that is well above what the rest of the field earned their last time out. Expect Into Oblivion to go to Post at odds well below even money.
Sharla Rae gets some class relief after trying Graded Stakes competition her last time out. Sharla Rae is the only horse in this field with a Win over this track.
RACE 9 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Roman Tizzy (ML 8-1)
# 3 Point Happy (ML 20-1)
# 7 Kochees (ML 4-1)
# 9 Industry Leader (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Green Tag (ML 4-1)
# 11 Sidepocket Champ (ML 8-1)
Roman Tizzy took the Show at this level last time out, albeit over the Del Mar Polytrack. Roman Tizzy's lone Win came over a fast dirt track, and he has finished in the money four other times in his seven career dirt starts.
Point Happy returns after a one year vacation sporting a bullet work over this track on August 29. Point Happy has a Win and a Place in three career starts on a fast dirt track. If Point Happy returns to the form that he was showing before he went on the shelf, he'll be right in the mix today.
Kochees is another dropping a few steps down the class ladder. While such a move for a horse coming back from a seven week layoff could be a red flag, I think in this case it's more a realistic appraisal of a runner that has finished out of the money in eight out of twelve lifetime starts.
Industry Leader took the Place at this class level last time out, in which he went off as the Post Time Favorite.
Green Tag gets major class relief today, dropping from open Claimers to this contest limited to non-winners of two lifetime.
Sidepocket Champ should appreciate the turnback in distance today. Note that the last two times that Sidepocket Champ tried to go a mile he was within a length of the leader entering the stretch only to fade badly.
# 12 G'night (Morning Line 7-2) took the Place against more expensive last time out (albeit on Polytrack) and the Show against more expensive three starts back (albeit on turf). G'night has finished out of the money three of the four times that he's tried a fast dirt track. Perhaps this is the day that G'night carries his form from synthetic and turf to the dirt; but I'll be betting against that outcome.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,7 with 3,4,7 with 2 with 1,3,7,9 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 3,4,7 with 2 with 1,3,7,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 1,6 with 2 with 1,3,7,9 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 3,4,7 with 3 with 1,3,7,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 3,4,7 with 2 with 2,11 $6.00
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:30 EDT / 4:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 6, 2014
9/6/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - The Beverly J. Lewis - # 4 Uzziel (Final Odds 4.10) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 9 When We Met (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Los Alamitos Mile - #6 Soi Phet (4.80) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Hold Everything (4.50) - "A" Selection
It's always nice to be holding four Aces; and having only one of them be the Post Time Favorite makes it that much sweeter still. It's also nice to go into final leg of a sequence in Southern California and just needing the Bob Baffert horse to win in order to collect.
Still, while the results were good, we did make mistakes. We should have recognized When We Met as a standout in Race 7; and the question marks surrounding Clubhouse Ride in the Los Alamitos Mile should have been enough to keep him off our tickets. So it wasn't a perfect day; but it was still pretty darn good; and I'd be beyond ecstatic if I could have one just like it every time I wagered on a race.
For the record, the $0.50 Will Pay for our "C" Selection in the finale, # 7 Fast Mast (1.00) was $123.85, while the $1.00 Will Pay for our other "A" Selection, # 2 Royal Tale (2.90) was $389.20. Meanwhile, the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 9 / 6 / 6 paid $326.25 for a fifty cent wager; since we had it for a dollar, we collect $652.50. I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 9 When We Met (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Los Alamitos Mile - #6 Soi Phet (4.80) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Hold Everything (4.50) - "A" Selection
It's always nice to be holding four Aces; and having only one of them be the Post Time Favorite makes it that much sweeter still. It's also nice to go into final leg of a sequence in Southern California and just needing the Bob Baffert horse to win in order to collect.
Still, while the results were good, we did make mistakes. We should have recognized When We Met as a standout in Race 7; and the question marks surrounding Clubhouse Ride in the Los Alamitos Mile should have been enough to keep him off our tickets. So it wasn't a perfect day; but it was still pretty darn good; and I'd be beyond ecstatic if I could have one just like it every time I wagered on a race.
For the record, the $0.50 Will Pay for our "C" Selection in the finale, # 7 Fast Mast (1.00) was $123.85, while the $1.00 Will Pay for our other "A" Selection, # 2 Royal Tale (2.90) was $389.20. Meanwhile, the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 9 / 6 / 6 paid $326.25 for a fifty cent wager; since we had it for a dollar, we collect $652.50. I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/6/14 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
It's September; the turf has met the surf and they have both faded into the sunset. The Del Mar meet has ended, and it's time to head on over to the Los Angeles County Fair; Fairplex; Pomona. That is, unless you want to watch the thoroughbreds compete; in which case it's time to head on back to Los Alamitos, which is where the horses have gone; and which is where we'll be casting our lot in today's Late Pick Four.
RACE 6 - (F) The Beverly J Lewis $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Delta Flower (Morning Line 2-1)
# 4 Uzziel (ML 3-1)
C's
# 5 Ramona's Wildcat (ML 3-1)
# 7 Classy Ava (ML 10-1)
Delta Flower, Uzziel, and Ramona's Wildcat are the three entrants in this field with prior wins in open stakes. Interesting rider movement for this one as Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer makes a jockey change, but not to his usual go-to rider Rafael Bejarano, but to Elvis Trujillo (note that Trujillo will be riding for Hollendorfer in the next race as well EDIT - Or would have been had Gal Has to Like It not been scratched). Meanwhile, Bejarano will be taking the mount for the first time on Ramona's Wildcat, trained by Doug O'Neill. Ramona's Wildcat has been working well, which may offset O'Neill's relatively poor record when bringing a runner back from a two-to-six month vacation.
# 6 Sprague River (ML 8-1) didn't like the dirt at Santa Anita; she's probably not going to like the dirt here. Have to think that her connections are just giving her a race to stay in shape until she can get back to some California grass.
Classy Ava won the speed duel but lost the race last time out. Indeed, Classy Ava was the only runner in her last contest to be in the Superfecta at the half and remain in the Superfecta at the wire. This is a step up the class ladder from that event, but she certainly deserves consideration here.
RACE 7 - Alw 12500s - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Xuang Feng (ML 8-1)
# 9 When We Met (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Stand by Your Man (ML 8-1)
# 5 Newfound Gold (ML 4-1)
# 8 Gal Has to Like It (ML 6-1) has been scratched; otherwise, he would have been an "A" Selection.
Neither Stand by Your Man nor # 2 Muchos Besos (ML 10-1) has shown much early foot in the past; so Xuang Feng should be the speed on the rail here. Speaking of Muchos Besos, note the string of starts beginning November 3 of last year and continuing up to May 16, 2014 where he went off as the Post Time Favorite in seven out of eight races, failing to win even one. Just further proof that sometimes we bettors can be rather stubborn about liking a horse to win.
When We Met will be going first off the claim for Robertino Diodoro, who wins approximately 29% with such.
Stand by Your Man won his only prior contest when competing on real dirt, which was run at today's distance and at the maximum class level ($12.5k) that allows him to remain eligible to compete here. Newfound Gold ran a big one two back to win at the $12.5k level; but that was on the Del Mar Polytrack. On dirt, Newfound Gold's recent form seems to place him just a shade below this level; he has recent Wins on dirt at $8k and $10k, but seems to just miss when moving up to $12.5k (again, when on dirt). Perhaps the switch to Trainer Peter Miller will give Newfound Gold the added boost that he needs.
RACE 8 - The Los Alamitos Mile $200k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Masochistic (ML 7-5)
# 6 Soi Phet (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sky Kingdom (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Clubhouse Ride (ML 4-1)
# 4 Tonito M. (ML 8-1)
Masochistic gets his first class test today. As the only horse drawn inside Masochistic is Clubhouse Ride, expect Masochistic to be speed on the rail and this to be a game of "Catch Me If You Can".
Soi Phet and Sky Kingdom are the two runners in this field with Wins over this track. Expect one or both to be pressing Masochistic early.
Clubhouse Ride has won the Grade 2 California Stakes two years in a row. Unfortunately, those are the only two Wins Clubhouse Ride has since taking an AOC at Santa Anita back on October 25, 2012. You certainly have to respect the class drop here, and the pace shape in this field certainly seems to flatter a late charger like Clubhouse Ride; but there are an awful lot of question marks here.
Tonito M. is another getting some much needed class relief. Tonito M. also gets a rider switch to Rafael Bejarano, which should be viewed as a plus. If Bejarano can get this three year old to save something for the stretch he just may get his picture taken when this one is over.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Royal Tale (ML 3-1)
# 6 Hold Everything (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 7 Fast Mast (ML 4-1)
# 9 Intoclassymischief (ML 7-2) has been scratched; otherwise, he would have been a "C" Selection.
Royal Tale ran the mile much better on the real dirt of Emerald Downs than he did on the synthetic surface at Del Mar. A repeat of that Emerald Downs performance should get the job done today.
Hold Everything gets some much need class relief. Hold Everything had speed enough to get the early lead against non-claiming maidens earlier this year; if he shows that speed again today, he could be long gone before the others get started.
Fast Mast took the Place at this class level over this track two starts back. Fast Mast has finished in the Trifecta both times that he's competed on a fast dirt track.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,4 with 3,9 with 2,6,8 with 2,6 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 3,9 with 2,6,8 with 2,6 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 1,5 with 2,6,8 with 2,6 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 3,9 with 1,4 with 2,6 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 3,9 with 2,6,8 with 7 $6.00
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:30 EDT / 4:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) The Beverly J Lewis $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Delta Flower (Morning Line 2-1)
# 4 Uzziel (ML 3-1)
C's
# 5 Ramona's Wildcat (ML 3-1)
# 7 Classy Ava (ML 10-1)
Delta Flower, Uzziel, and Ramona's Wildcat are the three entrants in this field with prior wins in open stakes. Interesting rider movement for this one as Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer makes a jockey change, but not to his usual go-to rider Rafael Bejarano, but to Elvis Trujillo (note that Trujillo will be riding for Hollendorfer in the next race as well EDIT - Or would have been had Gal Has to Like It not been scratched). Meanwhile, Bejarano will be taking the mount for the first time on Ramona's Wildcat, trained by Doug O'Neill. Ramona's Wildcat has been working well, which may offset O'Neill's relatively poor record when bringing a runner back from a two-to-six month vacation.
# 6 Sprague River (ML 8-1) didn't like the dirt at Santa Anita; she's probably not going to like the dirt here. Have to think that her connections are just giving her a race to stay in shape until she can get back to some California grass.
Classy Ava won the speed duel but lost the race last time out. Indeed, Classy Ava was the only runner in her last contest to be in the Superfecta at the half and remain in the Superfecta at the wire. This is a step up the class ladder from that event, but she certainly deserves consideration here.
RACE 7 - Alw 12500s - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Xuang Feng (ML 8-1)
# 9 When We Met (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Stand by Your Man (ML 8-1)
# 5 Newfound Gold (ML 4-1)
# 8 Gal Has to Like It (ML 6-1) has been scratched; otherwise, he would have been an "A" Selection.
Neither Stand by Your Man nor # 2 Muchos Besos (ML 10-1) has shown much early foot in the past; so Xuang Feng should be the speed on the rail here. Speaking of Muchos Besos, note the string of starts beginning November 3 of last year and continuing up to May 16, 2014 where he went off as the Post Time Favorite in seven out of eight races, failing to win even one. Just further proof that sometimes we bettors can be rather stubborn about liking a horse to win.
When We Met will be going first off the claim for Robertino Diodoro, who wins approximately 29% with such.
Stand by Your Man won his only prior contest when competing on real dirt, which was run at today's distance and at the maximum class level ($12.5k) that allows him to remain eligible to compete here. Newfound Gold ran a big one two back to win at the $12.5k level; but that was on the Del Mar Polytrack. On dirt, Newfound Gold's recent form seems to place him just a shade below this level; he has recent Wins on dirt at $8k and $10k, but seems to just miss when moving up to $12.5k (again, when on dirt). Perhaps the switch to Trainer Peter Miller will give Newfound Gold the added boost that he needs.
RACE 8 - The Los Alamitos Mile $200k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Masochistic (ML 7-5)
# 6 Soi Phet (ML 8-1)
# 8 Sky Kingdom (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Clubhouse Ride (ML 4-1)
# 4 Tonito M. (ML 8-1)
Masochistic gets his first class test today. As the only horse drawn inside Masochistic is Clubhouse Ride, expect Masochistic to be speed on the rail and this to be a game of "Catch Me If You Can".
Soi Phet and Sky Kingdom are the two runners in this field with Wins over this track. Expect one or both to be pressing Masochistic early.
Clubhouse Ride has won the Grade 2 California Stakes two years in a row. Unfortunately, those are the only two Wins Clubhouse Ride has since taking an AOC at Santa Anita back on October 25, 2012. You certainly have to respect the class drop here, and the pace shape in this field certainly seems to flatter a late charger like Clubhouse Ride; but there are an awful lot of question marks here.
Tonito M. is another getting some much needed class relief. Tonito M. also gets a rider switch to Rafael Bejarano, which should be viewed as a plus. If Bejarano can get this three year old to save something for the stretch he just may get his picture taken when this one is over.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Royal Tale (ML 3-1)
# 6 Hold Everything (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 7 Fast Mast (ML 4-1)
# 9 Intoclassymischief (ML 7-2) has been scratched; otherwise, he would have been a "C" Selection.
Royal Tale ran the mile much better on the real dirt of Emerald Downs than he did on the synthetic surface at Del Mar. A repeat of that Emerald Downs performance should get the job done today.
Hold Everything gets some much need class relief. Hold Everything had speed enough to get the early lead against non-claiming maidens earlier this year; if he shows that speed again today, he could be long gone before the others get started.
Fast Mast took the Place at this class level over this track two starts back. Fast Mast has finished in the Trifecta both times that he's competed on a fast dirt track.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,4 with 3,9 with 2,6,8 with 2,6 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 3,9 with 2,6,8 with 2,6 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 1,5 with 2,6,8 with 2,6 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 3,9 with 1,4 with 2,6 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 3,9 with 2,6,8 with 7 $6.00
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:30 EDT / 4:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, September 1, 2014
9/1/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - # 5 Sweet Sunshine (Final Odds 2.80) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Yellow Ribbon Handicap - # 9 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (4.60) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 9 Mischief Clem (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 12 Chattering Class (14.80) - No Selection
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four horses to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 - No Ez Money (3.10*) $152.90
# 6 - Fight the Power (4.80) $461.00
# 9 - Tribal Dude (4.00) $205.75
# 10 - Red Man Run (4.10) $269.35
No Ez Money did take to the Del Mar surface, and was speed on the rail, leading the pack by three and a half lengths in the stretch; but he could not hold on, as Chattering Class, for the first time in his ten race career, passed multiple horses, closing from tenth to catch No Ez Money at the wire to win by a neck, and turn all our tickets into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 9 / 9 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $719.10 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Yellow Ribbon Handicap - # 9 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (4.60) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 9 Mischief Clem (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 12 Chattering Class (14.80) - No Selection
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four horses to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 - No Ez Money (3.10*) $152.90
# 6 - Fight the Power (4.80) $461.00
# 9 - Tribal Dude (4.00) $205.75
# 10 - Red Man Run (4.10) $269.35
No Ez Money did take to the Del Mar surface, and was speed on the rail, leading the pack by three and a half lengths in the stretch; but he could not hold on, as Chattering Class, for the first time in his ten race career, passed multiple horses, closing from tenth to catch No Ez Money at the wire to win by a neck, and turn all our tickets into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 9 / 9 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $719.10 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/1/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
Hope everyone is enjoying their Labor Day Holiday and, well, that's pretty much all I have as far as introductions go. So with that, let's take a look at today's Pick Four at Del Mar.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Sweet Sunshine (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Seeking the West (ML 3-1)
# 9 Cravin Carats (ML 10-1)
C’s
None
Sweet Sunshine missed by a length of winning at this level last time out, and his off the pace running style should prove useful today.
Seeking the West has the type of career record I usually try to avoid playing on top: twelve starts, one win, four seconds, two thirds: a hanger. Seeking the West has also lost at this level in his last eight races. So why is he on this ticket? Because in his last race Seeking the West did something that he hadn't done in a long, long time: crossed the wire closer to the winner than he was at first call. You know the last time Seeking the West accomplished that feat? November 11, 2013, in the race right before he broke his maiden for his only career victory. Maybe lightening can strike twice.
Craving Carats' only prior career start on a synthetic surface was as a two year old in a Graded Stakes, so I don't think we can extract much from that performance. If Craving Carats' recent form on turf can transfer to the Polytrack, then he should be right in the mix today.
RACE 9 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Stormy Lucy (ML 5-1)
# 7 Parranda (ML 3-1)
# 9 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Stormy Lucy had a pair of Graded Stakes wins back in the Spring over the Santa Anita turf. Rafael Bejarano was her rider for both of those victories. Bejarano hasn't ridden Stormy Lucy since, and Stormy Lucy hasn't won since. Bejarano will be on her back again today.
In her last five turf starts Parranda has won three Graded Stakes. Miss Serendipity (Arg) is the only Grade 1 winner in today's field.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Lucky Logan (ML 10-1)
# 4 Ultimate Luck (ML 8-1)
# 8 Flexible (ML 3-1)
# 9 Mischief Clem (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Lucky Logan is the only experienced runner in this field. He's been quick out of the gate in each of his two career starts, so maybe he can be gone before the other runners realize that they're in a race. Lucky Logan has undergone the ultimate equipment change, so perhaps that will help him stay focused until he reaches the wire.
Ultimate Luck is sired by Lucky J. H., the sire of Lucky S. J., who has begun his career a perfect two-for-two (albeit as a four year old).
Flexible's sire (Olmodavor) gets approximately 15% Wins with his juvenile debuters, while Flexible's trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) gets approximately 34% winners from his first time runners. Mischief Clem's sire (Papa Clem) gets approximately 19% Wins with his juvenile debuters, while Mischief Clem's trainer (Bob Hess) gets approximately 16% winners from his first time runners. Note that both Hollendorfer and Hess are using their go-to riders for this one (Bejarano and Desormeaux, respectively).
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 No Ez Money (ML 7-2)
# 6 Fight the Power (ML 12-1)
# 9 Tribal Dude (ML 9-2)
# 10 Red Man Run (ML 5-1)
C's
None
No Ez Money has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field and is taking a drop in class. If No Ez Money takes to the Del Mar surface he could be speed on the rail and long gone before the others hit the stretch.
Fight the Power and Tribal Dude are a combined two-for-three (with one Show) when racing on the Del Mar main track; and a combined oh-for-twenty-one when racing elsewhere. I think it's fair to say that they both love competing on this surface.
Red Man Run closed well in his last start, his first start ever over the Del Mar main track. There's a lot of early speed in this one, so if Red Man Run can close well again today he should be right in the mix.
OK, that's the analysis. You'll notice I have only "A" Selections today. That's because I think several of these events are wide open, and the inclusion of all the runners that I believe deserve to be considered "C" Contenders would make this play a budget buster. Indeed, this is probably a sequence that is best passed instead of played; but with great risk comes great reward, so sometimes you just have to roll the dice. So with that, here's our one ticket for today:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6,9 with 1,7,9 with 3,4,8,9 with 1,6,9,10 $72.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:35 EDT / 5:35 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Sweet Sunshine (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Seeking the West (ML 3-1)
# 9 Cravin Carats (ML 10-1)
C’s
None
Sweet Sunshine missed by a length of winning at this level last time out, and his off the pace running style should prove useful today.
Seeking the West has the type of career record I usually try to avoid playing on top: twelve starts, one win, four seconds, two thirds: a hanger. Seeking the West has also lost at this level in his last eight races. So why is he on this ticket? Because in his last race Seeking the West did something that he hadn't done in a long, long time: crossed the wire closer to the winner than he was at first call. You know the last time Seeking the West accomplished that feat? November 11, 2013, in the race right before he broke his maiden for his only career victory. Maybe lightening can strike twice.
Craving Carats' only prior career start on a synthetic surface was as a two year old in a Graded Stakes, so I don't think we can extract much from that performance. If Craving Carats' recent form on turf can transfer to the Polytrack, then he should be right in the mix today.
RACE 9 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Stormy Lucy (ML 5-1)
# 7 Parranda (ML 3-1)
# 9 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Stormy Lucy had a pair of Graded Stakes wins back in the Spring over the Santa Anita turf. Rafael Bejarano was her rider for both of those victories. Bejarano hasn't ridden Stormy Lucy since, and Stormy Lucy hasn't won since. Bejarano will be on her back again today.
In her last five turf starts Parranda has won three Graded Stakes. Miss Serendipity (Arg) is the only Grade 1 winner in today's field.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Lucky Logan (ML 10-1)
# 4 Ultimate Luck (ML 8-1)
# 8 Flexible (ML 3-1)
# 9 Mischief Clem (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Lucky Logan is the only experienced runner in this field. He's been quick out of the gate in each of his two career starts, so maybe he can be gone before the other runners realize that they're in a race. Lucky Logan has undergone the ultimate equipment change, so perhaps that will help him stay focused until he reaches the wire.
Ultimate Luck is sired by Lucky J. H., the sire of Lucky S. J., who has begun his career a perfect two-for-two (albeit as a four year old).
Flexible's sire (Olmodavor) gets approximately 15% Wins with his juvenile debuters, while Flexible's trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) gets approximately 34% winners from his first time runners. Mischief Clem's sire (Papa Clem) gets approximately 19% Wins with his juvenile debuters, while Mischief Clem's trainer (Bob Hess) gets approximately 16% winners from his first time runners. Note that both Hollendorfer and Hess are using their go-to riders for this one (Bejarano and Desormeaux, respectively).
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 No Ez Money (ML 7-2)
# 6 Fight the Power (ML 12-1)
# 9 Tribal Dude (ML 9-2)
# 10 Red Man Run (ML 5-1)
C's
None
No Ez Money has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field and is taking a drop in class. If No Ez Money takes to the Del Mar surface he could be speed on the rail and long gone before the others hit the stretch.
Fight the Power and Tribal Dude are a combined two-for-three (with one Show) when racing on the Del Mar main track; and a combined oh-for-twenty-one when racing elsewhere. I think it's fair to say that they both love competing on this surface.
Red Man Run closed well in his last start, his first start ever over the Del Mar main track. There's a lot of early speed in this one, so if Red Man Run can close well again today he should be right in the mix.
OK, that's the analysis. You'll notice I have only "A" Selections today. That's because I think several of these events are wide open, and the inclusion of all the runners that I believe deserve to be considered "C" Contenders would make this play a budget buster. Indeed, this is probably a sequence that is best passed instead of played; but with great risk comes great reward, so sometimes you just have to roll the dice. So with that, here's our one ticket for today:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6,9 with 1,7,9 with 3,4,8,9 with 1,6,9,10 $72.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:35 EDT / 5:35 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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