RACE 8 - The Awesome Again (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Shared Belief (Morning Line 3-5)
C’s
# 1 Fed Biz (ML 6-1)
# 6 Majestic Harbor (ML 5-1)
Shared Belief, undefeated in six career races, winner of the Grade 1 Pacific Classic last time out, and the horse that has everyone wondering "What if he had been healthy enough to run in the Triple Crown races?". He's a great one, no doubt about it; but he's yet to beat older horses on real dirt, and he's yet to win at Santa Anita. Perhaps those are just a couple of trivial bits of information; but perhaps they suggest that some caution is advised before going all-in on this three year old.
Fed Biz, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, has shown a flexible running style, winning the Grade 2 San Diego and the Grade 2 San Fernando by wiring the field, while winning the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien by closing from the clouds.
Majestic Harbor won the Used to be Hollywood Gold Cup two starts back, and the Grade 3 Tokyo City two starts prior to that, both over this main track. Needless to say, Majestic Harbor didn't much care for the artificial stuff at Del Mar in his last start.
RACE 9 - (F) The Unzip Me $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 4 On the Backstreets (ML 9-5)
# 8 Stars Above Me (ML 5-2)
# 9 Gender Agenda (ML 6-1)
C's
None
On the Backstreets, trained by Peter Miller and ridden by Rafael Bejarano, has won all three of her races charging down the hill, the last two against listed stakes company.
Stars Above Me ships in from New York for Trainer Graham Motion after suffering a couple of bad trips in two races over the Saratoga turf course; one of which she won by daylight anyway.
Gender Agenda was a winner last time out in what was simultaneously her North American debut and her first start of 2014. Gender Agenda may regress off that effort today, but the turnback in distance (even with the right and left turns) may help her hold her form.
RACE 10 - (F) The Chandelier (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Conquest Eclipse (ML 7-2)
# 4 Angela Renee (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Sunday Sonnet (ML 6-1)
# 5 Sharla Rae (ML 12-1)
# 8 Manahatta (ML 12-1)
# 10 Dad's Princess (ML 8-1)
Conquest Eclipse took the Show in the Del Mar Debutante her last time out. Angela Renee ships in for Trainer Todd Pletcher from New York after finishing in the money in a pair of Graded Stakes her last two times out.
Sunday Sonnet comes in from New York for Trainer Kelly Breen. Sunday Sonnet could be early speed on the rail today.
Sharla Rae is the only runner in this field with multiple Wins. Manahatta, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, may appreciate the stretch out to two turns, as well as the switch to real dirt. Dad's Princess made a nice middle move in the Del Mar Debutante, and should also appreciate the stretch out in distance.
RACE 11 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Nakamoto (ML 4-1)
# 7 Papacoolpapacool (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 4 Borealis Breeze (ML 8-1)
Nakamoto finished in the money in each of his last two races, both at this class level. Papacoolpapacool missed by less than a length last time out in the Oak Leaf Juvenile Turf.
Borealis Breeze, trained by Thomas Proctor and ridden by Drayden Van Dyke, takes a big step up from Maiden Claiming to Maiden Not For Sale; but the move to turf coupled with the stretch out in distance should still make for a much improved performance. Also note that runners for Trainer Proctor win approximately a fifth of the time in their second career starts.
OK, that's the analysis. I'm going to deviate a bit from the usual Crist method, because 1) I'm not completely sold on Shared Belief; and, 2) I think the Chandelier is a real chaos race. So, I'll be playing one ticket of all "A's", but for the minimum wager amount, and one ticket caveman style; giving us the following:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,8,9 with 2,4 with 2,7 $6.00
All A and C Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,6 with 4,8,9 with 1,2,4,5,8,10 with 2,4,7 $81.00
Total: $87.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:00 EDT / 4:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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