RACE 1 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Every May (Morning Line 8-5)
C’s
# 1 Star Actor (ML 4-1)
# 3 Life On Riviera (ML 7-2)
Every May missed by half a length at first asking last time out, earning a Brisnet Speed Figure well within spitting range of par for this class level. Trainer Simon Callaghan gets approximately 17% winners from his runners making their second career start, with a positive ROI.
Star Actor is a debut runner by Mineshaft, whose progeny win at first asking approximately 8% of the time. Star Actor is trained by Bob Baffert, whose debut starters win approximately one fourth of the time.
Life On Riviera is trained by Peter Miller, who gets approximately 20% winners from his first time starters. Life On Riviera was sired by Hold Me Back, whose progeny win approximately 20% of their debuts.
RACE 2 - Clm $6.25k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Monastic (ML 9-2)
# 8 Single Launch (ML 10-1)
# 10 Valdirone (ML 1-1)
C's
# 2 Fly High (ML 4-1)
# 3 Country Hero (ML 8-1)
Monastic took the Show against more expensive over this main track last time out. The cutback in distance should help, as Monastic was briefly in the lead last time out before weakening in the stretch.
Single Launch was the Post Time Favorite last time out against stiffer competition than he'll be facing today. Single Launch is two-for-four lifetime over a fast dirt track, and has finished in the Trifecta in five of his eight career starts.
Both of Valdirone's career wins came against state bred competition. Valdirone has had two career races against non-state bred restricted competition, and was the defeated Post Time Favorite in both of them. Indeed, Valdirone has bee the beaten Post Time Favorite in exactly half of his eight prior career starts. Valdirone is certainly a solid contender here, and he should do well on the class drop; but I don't see him having an advantage over the rest of the field that would warrant making him the on odds-on Favorite.
Fly High returns from an extended vacation, having been on the shelf since breaking his maiden in January. Runners trained by Doug O'Neill win fewer than 10% of their races when coming back from layoffs greater than ninety days; but O'Neill does do well when placing his maiden breakers for their first start against winners, and the Brisnet Speed Figure earned by Fly High his last time out is well above par for this class level.
Country Hero took the Show at this level his last time out, and defeated $5k open claimers under the lights here back in April. I don't know if Country Hero can last the entire five and a half furlongs, but early speed like his should always be respected on a fast dirt track, especially at these lower class levels.
RACE 3 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Song to You (ML 3-1)
# 5 Full Dancer (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 2 Celebrity Status (ML 2-1)
Song to You has finished in the Trifecta all four times that he's competed on a fast dirt track. Full Dancer is six-for-eight lifetime on a fast dirt track. Both Song to You and Full Dancer have been competitive against this level of competition or better on dirt.
Celebrity Status has competed at this class level in each of his last five races, finishing in the money in four of those five without getting his picture taken once. It would appear that Celebrity Status is the type willing to settle for a minor reward; but perhaps the move back to dirt coupled with a stretchout in distance will give him the spark he needs to win today.
RACE 4 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Sandy's Song (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Yes She's a Dancer (ML 8-1)
# 5 Satin Cinnamon (ML 10-1)
# 7 Natalie's Wonder (ML 7-2)
# 10 Indian Princess (ML 10-1)
Sandy's Song took the Place last time out at this level, and the Show in her debut the start before that. If she continues to improve, or even just repeats that last performance, Sandy's Song should get her picture taken today.
Yes She's a Dancer took the Place at this level last time out over this main track. Satin Cinnamon goes up in class after competing for a $50k tag, but the speed figure she earned in that one puts her with the contenders here, and she may improve with the move to real dirt.
Natalie's Wonder and Indian Princess are a pair of first time starters by sires (Tiz Wonderful and Indian Charlie, respectively) whose progeny do exceptionally well at first asking.
RACE 5 - (F) The Las Madrinas $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Legacy (ML 2-1)
# 5 My Happy Face (ML 6-5)
C's
# 1 Zilber (ML 8-1)
# 4 Irish Presence (ML 7-2)
Legacy was a listed stakes winner at today's distance over this main track two starts back. My Happy Face's last five dirt starts were all against Graded Stakes company, and she finished in the Superfecta in each of them.
Zilber is a Graded Stakes winner in her native Brazil. This will be her first North American start on real dirt. Irish Presence finished in front of Legacy back in May in the Grade 3 Adoration Stakes.
OK, that's the analysis. As usual, we're going to play our tickets using the Crist method, except that we're going to double our normal "All A Entries" ticket purchase from one dollar to two, in recognition of how chalky I expect this sequence to be. So with that we get:
All A Entries
$2.00 P5: 2 with 1,8,10 with 1,5 with 3 with 3,5 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 1,3 with 1,8,10 with 1,5 with 3 with 3,5 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 2,3 with 1,5 with 3 with 3,5 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 1,8,10 with 2 with 3 with 3,5 $3.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 1,8,10 with 1,5 with 2,5,7,10 with 3,5 $24.00
$0.50 P5: 2 with 1,8,10 with 1,5 with 3 with 1,4 $6.00
Total: $73.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 5:00 EDT / 2:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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