9/20/14 Parx Racing Late Pick Four - Preview

One month after The Travers and six weeks before The Breeders' Cup the top three year olds get one more crack at each other in Saturday's Pennsylvania Derby, headlined by Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome.  But that's the Grade 2 contest on the card; the Grade 1 event belongs to the fillies, as Untapable will try to prove yet again that (at least against female competition) she truly is unstoppable.  Those two contests form half of an all-stakes Pick Four at Parx Saturday.  Below is a look at the full sequence.

RACE 9 - [S] The Alphabet Soup $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

ALL

C’s

None

This is the type of race for which the "ALL" button was created.  # 6 Roadhog (Morning Line 3-1) won this contest last year, but is winless in three tries on the grass so far this year.  # 5 Edge of Reality (ML 5-1) is a Graded Stakes winner; but that's on dirt; he finished off the board in his lone prior try on turf.

# 2 Traffic Light (ML 6-1) and # 4 Page McKenney (ML 7-2) were both winners of state-bred stakes their respective last time out; but both those races were on dirt.  # 8 El Capitan (ML 20-1) is a Grade 1 winner in Mexico, but this will be his first time on the grass.

# 9 Dancing Lounge (ML 12-1) has finished in the Exacta five of the six times that he's competed on this turf course.  # 10 Atlantic Seaboard (ML 8-1) has defeated non-state restricted company on the grass; but as those were restricted claimers, it's probable (though not definite) that the class of those fields was below that which he'll be facing today.

# 1 Atheistane (ML 12-1) misses by a head of being a perfect two-for-two in his career on grass; but the turf was soft in both of those races, so it's unclear how Atheistane (who prefers the track off when racing on the dirt) will handle a firm turf course.  # 11 Starry Moon (ML 10-1) will also be getting his first try at a turf course that's firm rather than yielding.

So, yeah, I'm just going to "ALL" out here.

RACE 10 - The Gallant Bob (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Fast Anna (ML 8-5)

C’s

# 1 Favorite Tale (ML 5-2)
# 4 Prudhoe Bay (ML 6-1)
# 5 Pure Sensation (ML 4-1)

Fast Anna's performance in the Grade 1 King's Bishop (where he missed victory by just a neck) dominates anything the rest of the field has done in their respective careers.  A repeat of that performance would put Fast Anna in the Winner's Circle today.

Favorite Tale is a perfect three-for-three over this main track in his career, and has a listed stakes win at Belmont Park on his resume.  Favorite Tale had a troubled trip last time out while losing to Prudhoe Bay, though I don't see how that merits Favorite Tale being listed at odds less than half that of the horse that defeated him.

Prudhoe Bay is the only Graded Stakes winner in today's field.  Pure Sensation showed the ability to come from behind in winning a turf sprint two starts back.  He also showed the ability to close in his debut over the main track at Saratoga last July.  If Jockey Joel Rosario can get Pure Sensation to come from off the pace today then he will have a huge advantage over this field, which is chock full of frontrunners.

RACE 11 - (F) The Cotillion (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Untapable (ML 7-5)

C’s

# 2 Sweet Reason (ML 4-1)
# 7 Jojo Warrior (ML 6-1)

# 9 Stopchargingmaria (ML 7-2) has been scratched.

Is Untapable unbeatable?  Well, she sure looked it earlier this year when she won four straight Graded Stakes by a combined thirty-one lengths.  If you really, really, want to try to beat her, who do you do it with?

Well, there's Sweet Reason, a three-time Grade 1 Stakes winner in New York.  Some have questioned the quality of the field in those last two victories, but it should be noted that Sweet Reason did defeat Stopchargingmaria in the Grade 1 Spinaway as a two year old.

Another option is the Bob Baffert trained Jojo Warrior, winner of the Grade 2 Summer Oaks at Santa Anita.  Perhaps Jojo Warrior can do to Untapable today what Bayern did to her in The Haskell: grab the early lead and ride a speed bias into the Winner's Circle.  So there are other possibilities here.

RACE 11 - The Pennsylvania Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 California Chrome (ML 1-1)

C’s

# 2 Candy Boy (ML 10-1)
# 4 Bayern (ML 7-2)

# 7 Tapiture (ML 5-1)

California Chrome is coming back from a layoff of over three months.  He's never had to do that before, so maybe he'll need a race.  Trainer Art Sherman wins less than 10% of the time he sends out a runner who's been away from the track for more than ninety days.  Indeed, as you can see in this video on YouTube, Sherman admits that he doesn't know how California Chrome will react in his first start back off the layoff.  So that's a pretty big question mark to deal with.

But you know what there is no question about, at least in my mind?  California Chrome is clearly the best horse in this race; hands down.  It's amazing just how close this horse came to winning the Triple Crown.  Consider this: both Beyer's and Brisnet's Speed Figures agree that, despite getting his hoof stomped on right out of the gate, California Chrome actually earned a higher figure in the Belmont than he did in the Kentucky Derby.  This is a horse with a lot of talent, and a lot of heart.

So if California Chrome is ready to run, he wins.  I expect him and Bayern to criss-cross early, with Bayern grabbing the lead on the inside and California Chrome sitting off his flank on the outside. with California Chrome passing Bayern at the top of the stretch to cross the wire first.  If California Chrome doesn't fire, then the most likely scenario is that Bayern just keeps on leading the pack right into the Winner's Circle.  Excluding California Chrome, the only horses I can see that might possibly catch Bayern are Candy Boy and Tapiture.  But keep in mind that all three of these (Bayern, Candy Boy, and Tapiture) have in the past shown themselves to be no match for California Chrome at his best.

OK, that's the analysis.  Three single "A's" and one "ALL"; sure don't see that very often.  I'm going to deviate a bit today from the usual Crist method, and play it as follows:

All Chalk Entries Early With Spread In Finale

$1.00 P4: 4,6 with 6 with 8 with 1,2,4,7 $8.00

Untapable / California Chrome Double With All A & C Entries

$0.50 P4: ALL with 1,4,5,6, with 8 with 1 $22.00

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: ALL with 6 with 8 with 1 $11.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: ALL with 1,4,5 with 8 with 1 $16.50
$0.50 P4: ALL with 6 with 2,7 with 1 $11.00
$0.50 P4: ALL with 6 with 8 with 2,4,7 $16.50

Total: $85.00

Post Time for Race 9 is 3:25 EDT / 12:25 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo