Hope everyone is enjoying their Labor Day Holiday and, well, that's pretty much all I have as far as introductions go. So with that, let's take a look at today's Pick Four at Del Mar.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Sweet Sunshine (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Seeking the West (ML 3-1)
# 9 Cravin Carats (ML 10-1)
C’s
None
Sweet Sunshine missed by a length of winning at this level last time out, and his off the pace running style should prove useful today.
Seeking the West has the type of career record I usually try to avoid playing on top: twelve starts, one win, four seconds, two thirds: a hanger. Seeking the West has also lost at this level in his last eight races. So why is he on this ticket? Because in his last race Seeking the West did something that he hadn't done in a long, long time: crossed the wire closer to the winner than he was at first call. You know the last time Seeking the West accomplished that feat? November 11, 2013, in the race right before he broke his maiden for his only career victory. Maybe lightening can strike twice.
Craving Carats' only prior career start on a synthetic surface was as a two year old in a Graded Stakes, so I don't think we can extract much from that performance. If Craving Carats' recent form on turf can transfer to the Polytrack, then he should be right in the mix today.
RACE 9 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Stormy Lucy (ML 5-1)
# 7 Parranda (ML 3-1)
# 9 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Stormy Lucy had a pair of Graded Stakes wins back in the Spring over the Santa Anita turf. Rafael Bejarano was her rider for both of those victories. Bejarano hasn't ridden Stormy Lucy since, and Stormy Lucy hasn't won since. Bejarano will be on her back again today.
In her last five turf starts Parranda has won three Graded Stakes. Miss Serendipity (Arg) is the only Grade 1 winner in today's field.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Lucky Logan (ML 10-1)
# 4 Ultimate Luck (ML 8-1)
# 8 Flexible (ML 3-1)
# 9 Mischief Clem (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Lucky Logan is the only experienced runner in this field. He's been quick out of the gate in each of his two career starts, so maybe he can be gone before the other runners realize that they're in a race. Lucky Logan has undergone the ultimate equipment change, so perhaps that will help him stay focused until he reaches the wire.
Ultimate Luck is sired by Lucky J. H., the sire of Lucky S. J., who has begun his career a perfect two-for-two (albeit as a four year old).
Flexible's sire (Olmodavor) gets approximately 15% Wins with his juvenile debuters, while Flexible's trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) gets approximately 34% winners from his first time runners. Mischief Clem's sire (Papa Clem) gets approximately 19% Wins with his juvenile debuters, while Mischief Clem's trainer (Bob Hess) gets approximately 16% winners from his first time runners. Note that both Hollendorfer and Hess are using their go-to riders for this one (Bejarano and Desormeaux, respectively).
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 No Ez Money (ML 7-2)
# 6 Fight the Power (ML 12-1)
# 9 Tribal Dude (ML 9-2)
# 10 Red Man Run (ML 5-1)
C's
None
No Ez Money has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field and is taking a drop in class. If No Ez Money takes to the Del Mar surface he could be speed on the rail and long gone before the others hit the stretch.
Fight the Power and Tribal Dude are a combined two-for-three (with one Show) when racing on the Del Mar main track; and a combined oh-for-twenty-one when racing elsewhere. I think it's fair to say that they both love competing on this surface.
Red Man Run closed well in his last start, his first start ever over the Del Mar main track. There's a lot of early speed in this one, so if Red Man Run can close well again today he should be right in the mix.
OK, that's the analysis. You'll notice I have only "A" Selections today. That's because I think several of these events are wide open, and the inclusion of all the runners that I believe deserve to be considered "C" Contenders would make this play a budget buster. Indeed, this is probably a sequence that is best passed instead of played; but with great risk comes great reward, so sometimes you just have to roll the dice. So with that, here's our one ticket for today:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6,9 with 1,7,9 with 3,4,8,9 with 1,6,9,10 $72.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:35 EDT / 5:35 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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