RACE 7 - (F) The Flower Bowl (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf
A’s
# 1 Abaco (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Viva Rafaela (ML 5-1)
# 4 Strathnaver (ML 4-1)
# 9 Stephanie's Kitten (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Abaco won the Grade 2 Ballston Spa up in Saratoga her last time out. Abaco has finished in the Exacta in all five of her starts on the Belmont grass.
Viva Rafaela is a speedster that may find herself all alone on the front end for a significant portion of this race, if not its entirety. Grade 1 turf routes aren't often stolen on the front end, but I like Viva Rafaela's chances of doing just that today, especially when considering that this contest will be on the Inner Turf Course.
Strathnaver missed winning the Grade 2 Ballston Spa by just a neck, and the Grade 1 Just a Game by just a nose. Jockey Joel Rosario, who was on board Strathnaver for her last Graded Stakes victory, will be on her back again today.
Stephanie's Kitten is one of three going for Trainer Chad Brown in this event. Stephanie's Kitten won her first two starts of 2013 (both, interestingly enough, on grass that was less than firm); she has not won since. Stephanie's Kitten took the Place in the Grade 1 Beverly D as well as the Grade 1 Diana in her last two starts, so she's not done yet; but she's also not the force that she once was in this division.
RACE 8 - The Vosburgh (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Palace (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 2 Coup de Grace (ML 8-1)
# 4 Salutos Amigos (ML 6-1)
# 6 Happy My Way (ML 3-1)
Palace, winner of three of his last four races, all in Graded Stakes competition, is probably a standout here. Palace has finished in the Exacta in all five of his starts on the Belmont Park main track. In addition, Palace should be flattered by today's race shape, as there looks to be a lot of early speed here that he can close into. So why not save some money and drop the "C" Selections? Good question, and one I may be asking myself over and over again after this race is run. But looking at the race now, it's not too hard to envision a scenario where Palace gets trapped in on the rail and finds himself surrounded by a wall of horses in the stretch, unable to get through in time. Had Palace drawn a Post Position more towards the outside he probably would be a single on my tickets; but with him having to break from the rail, I think caution is advised; hence the use of the "C" Selections.
Coup de Grace won the Grade 2 Amsterdam two starts back. As Coup de Grace does his best running late, the faster the frontrunners go early, the better his chances today.
Salutos Amigos has been earning Speed Figures (both Beyer and Brisnet) that make him competitive against this level of competition; so he should fare well today, even with the rise in class. Salutos Amigos should probably be used underneath in your vertical wagers, rather than on top; but if there is a total pace meltdown, Salutos Amigos has a late running style that just might get him into the Winner's Circle today.
Happy My Way has finished in the Exacta in each of his last six races, and led most of the way in the Grade 1 A G Vanderbilt last time out before having to settle for the Place behind Palace. Happy My Way is probably the speed of the speed here, and that bullet work on the 18th over this main track suggests that he'll be ready to fire right out of the gate again today.
RACE 9 - The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Widener Turf Course
A’s
# 2 Twilight Eclipse (ML 4-1)
# 3 Imagining (ML 3-1)
# 5 Main Sequence (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 1 Big Blue Kitten / # 1A Real Solution (ML 5-2)
Main Sequence won the Grade 1 Sword Dancer his last time out, and took the Grade 1 United Nations two starts back. Twilight Eclipse finished less than a length behind Main Sequence in each of those events, while Imagining was just a head behind Main Sequence at the wire in the Sword Dancer. It would come as no surprise to me if those three were hit the wire together today.
Big Blue Kitten missed winning this event last year by a nose, after having won the 2013 runnings of the Sword Dancer and the United Nations. Big Blue Kitten has yet to show that form in 2014, but his back class must be respected. Real Solution, who we get as a two-for-one with Big Blue Kitten, won the Grade 1 Manhattan two starts back over this turf course.
RACE 10 - The Jockey Club Gold Cup (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Wicked Strong (ML 3-1)
# 11 Moreno (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 5 Prayer for Relief (ML 15-1)
# 8 Tonalist (ML 4-1)
Wicked Strong, winner of the Grade 2 Jim Dandy two starts back, missed by a nose of holding off a late charging V. E. Day last time out in the Grade 1 Travers. It's my opinion that Wicked Strong is the best horse in this race.
Moreno could find himself all alone early, especially since Tonalist will be removing the blinkers today. Moreno strikes me as a horse that should win more often than he does; but if Jockey Junior Alvarado can keep him focused today, Moreno just might lead this field from gate to wire.
Prayer for Relief has been showing an improving form, and his recent works over this main track suggest that he should be ready to fire today.
Tonalist sacrificed himself keeping Bayern honest early last time out in the Grade 1 Travers, and was still able to hold on for the Show at the wire. With the blinkers off today I don't expect Tonalist to be sitting that close to Moreno in this contest; which will probably benefit Tonalist's performance, but which may also allow Moreno to do as he pleases up front. Anyway, this is a talented horse that must be respected, even before one considers that he is a perfect two-for-two on this main track, both Wins coming in Graded Stakes.
# 10 V. E. Day (ML 5-1) benefitted from a perfect setup last time out in winning the Grade 1 Travers; I don't expect him to be that fortunate today. While V. E. Day is a talented runner, I don't see him as capable of defeating this field with its expected pace shape today; so if he wins, I lose.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 1,3,4,9 with 1 with 2,3,5 with 3,11 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,9 with 2,4,6 with 2,3,5 with 3,11 $36.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,9 with 1 with 1 with 3,11 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,9 with 1 with 2,3,5 with 5,8 $12.00
Total: $76.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:07 EDT / 1:07 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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