2012 Breeders' Cup - Can The Streak Continue?

First, before we do anything else:  If you're reading this and you're safe and secure, please, please consider a donation to the American Red Cross to help them as they provide disaster relief to those who have been adversely affected by Hurricane Sandy.  You can:

Donate online at http://www.redcross.org/;

You can text REDCROSS to 90999 to donate ten dollars to Disaster Relief efforts;

You can call 1-800-RED CROSS (1-800-733-2767);

You can mail a donation to:


American Red Cross
P.O. Box 4002018
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(If you choose to donate by mail using your credit card, or you wish to insure proper preparation of your receipt for tax purposes, be sure to complete and mail this form with your donation).

Thank you.

Now, where was I?

Oh yes; The Breeders' Cup is now just hours away; and while others ponder such questions as "Which juvenile filly will remain undefeated?"; "Can Shackelford handle two turns?"; "How will Animal Kingdom run after an eight and a half month layoff?"; "Will Dullahan smoke the California grass?"; there is just one question on my mind:

"What mess will Johnny V be in the middle of this year?"

Hall of Fame Jockey John Velazquez has had many successes throughout his career, including in Breeders' Cup events; indeed, he has twice won the Bill Shoemaker Award as Outstanding Breeders' Cup jockey.  But over the past several years, Johnny V has managed to find himself a major part of some, shall we say, rather interesting situations during the two days of Breeders' Cup races.

In 2009, Velazquez was on board Quality Road for the Breeders' Cup Classic when the Florida Derby winner became fractious, spending five minutes outside the gate refusing to load.  They finally did get Quality Road loaded, only to have him injure himself inside the gate, thus having to be scratched.

In 2010. Velazquez was the jockey on Life At Ten in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic.  Velazquez noticed that the winner of the Beldame Stakes was not warming up properly.  So does Velazquez report this information to the racing commission veterinarians? No.  Does he let the Churchill Downs stewards know?  No.  Velazquez does, however, tell former jockey and ESPN analyst Jerry Bailey live on the air that Life At Ten was not ready to race, thus alerting millions of viewers (and off-track bettors) to the fact that the second choice on the board was about to run a subpar effort.  Velazquez would be fined ten grand for his actions, and new policies would be enacted because of what shall forevermore be known as "The Life At Ten Incident."

Last year, 2011, Johnny V wasn't waiting for the Breeders' Cup races to find himself in the midst of a controversy.  In Race 2 on Breeders' Cup Friday at Churchill Downs, Velazquez, using a move some would say perfected by his agent and mentor, Angel Cordero, Jr, whips an opposing horse in the stretch, thus causing his mount, Congo, to be disqualified after crossing the finish line first.

So, can Johnny V keep the streak alive?  And, if so, what mess will he find himself in the middle of this year?

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/27/12 SA Race 6 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

Crown Over is a long shot claim that we've been following since he was scooped up by Trainer James Kasparoff for $25k out of Race 9 on August 25 at Golden Gate Fields; a race in which Crown Over went off at Final Odds of 32.2-1, and finished next-to-last.

On Saturday, Crown Over made his second start for Kasparoff, in Race 6 at Santa Anita.  As with Crown Over's initial start for Kasparoff earlier this month at Santa Anita, the race was a Starter Allowance (NW2L)  run on some California grass.  However, while the October 6 contest was a turf sprint down the hill, Crown Over was stretched out to eight furlongs in Saturday's contest.  Crown Over also got a change in rider Saturday, from Juan Hernandez to Joseph Talamo.

Didn't help.

Crown Over (Final Odds 9.10-1) broke from the gate seventh in the field of nine.  In the words of the chart caller Crown Over "chased; no late bid".  Never closer than fifth at any call, Crown Over finished seventh, three and a half lengths behind the winner, Smoken Legacy ($25.60 / $12.40 / $6.40).  Crown Over's share of the purse for his seventh place finish Saturday was $350, the same amount that his seventh place finish on October 6 had been worth.  

If you're looking to take something positive from Crown Over's effort, it's worth noting that he was closer to the lead at the end (three and a half lengths) than he was at the beginning (seven lengths back at first call).  This was also true of the October 6 contest, when Crown Over was seven lengths off the lead at first call and finished three and three quarter lengths in back of the winner.  Note that this was not the case in Crown Over's last race prior to heading to Kasparoff's barn; in that race (which, like Saturday's, was eight furlongs on the turf) Crown Over was up close at the start, less than two lengths behind the leader, only to lose ground and finish over five lengths back.

I'll close this post as I did my last on Crown Over, stating that I'll be keeping him on my watch list, if for no other reason than to see if he ever does return back the $25k that was shelled out to get him to change barns.  And I'll ask again, does anyone want to offer a prediction on whether or not Crown Over will turn a profit before he changes connections again?

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/25/12 SA R7 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

About a month ago on this blog I wrote about putting Sweet Swap on our Horse Watch list.  I had been impressed with his final time running down the hill at Santa Anita in Race 6 on September 28, especially as it compared with the final times in a couple of Stakes over the same course.  I later tempered my enthusiasm in a comment to that entry, where I noted (among other races) that Circa'sgoldengear, a five year old gelding who has never competed in, let alone won, a stakes race, posted his fourth win in fifteen career starts by smoking the downhill grass with a final time that was a over a fifth of a second quicker than that run by Sweet Swap.

Thursday, Sweet Swap ran his first race since that September 28 effort.  Moving up the class ladder into a non-winners of two other than AOC, Sweet Swap significantly improved upon his final time from September, running the six and a half furlongs of the downhill California grass in under seventy-two seconds.  Unfortunately for Sweet Swap's backers (of which there were many, as he left the gate as the Post Time Favorite at final odds of 1.3-1) that time was only good enough to capture the Show, as Clubhouse Ride (6.7-1) hit the wire a half length ahead of him, with Truest Legend (11.6-1) taking the Place between those two.  So a nice effort by Sweet Swap, but certainly not the result that his bettors were hoping for.

For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race is available here, while the DRF version of events may be viewed here.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Chantal Sutherland Calls It a Career

In surprising (though not really shocking) news, Chantal Sutherland  announced her retirement from horse racing on Sunday.  Her last mount was for her father Hugh aboard Crushin Hard in The Bunty Lawless Stakes at Woodbine.  I'm sure that you all join with me in wishing Ms Sutherland the best of luck in all her further endeavors.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/20/12 GG Race 2 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

City Chapel is a longshot claim that we've been following since late August, and wrote about most recently on October 10; so I won't recap his full story again here.  On Saturday, City Chapel made his third start for owner and trainer Victor Trujillo, going to post less than two weeks after his previous start (marking only the third time in City Chapel's career that he's raced on such short rest).

Saturday's contest was a step up in class for City Chapel; for while it was still a claiming race with the same price tag as his prior start ($8k-$7k), Saturday's race was unrestricted; whereas City Chapel's previous starts since breaking his Maiden had been in races open only to horses with just one lifetime victory (NW2L).  The race was run at a distance of eight furlongs over some California grass.

City Chapel went to post at final odds of 11.1-1.  He broke third, was never more than three lengths back of the leader, and took the Place, paying $7.80 / $3.60 (not to mention pairing up with Post Time Favorite Janero (1.4-1) to form a Quinella that paid $23.40 for every two dollars wagered).

City Chapel's portion of the purse for taking the Place was $2,400; thus making for a total of $4,710 in purse money collected by Trujillo for the three starts this gelding has made for his barn since being purchased for $4,000 on August 26 (and since Trujillo is both trainer and owner, he has significantly fewer people with whom he needs to split these funds).

So in less than two months time Trujillo has taken a horse that ran out of the money at odds of nearly 30-1 in a $4k claiming race, and has twice in a row gotten that same horse to finish second for a claiming price double that for which he was purchased.  Quite an achievement for Trujillo, and one for which he can be justifiably proud.

For those interested, the Equibase chart for Saturday's race is available here, while the DRF version of events may be viewed here.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Happy Birthday Dr Joyce Brothers

Sending out best wishes for a happy birthday to Dr Joyce Brothers Saturday, October 20 (though here her birthday is given as October 29, while in other places it's given as September 20).  Columnist, author, business consultant, wife, and mother, not to mention being America's best known psychologist, Dr Brothers has enjoyed a successful career that has spanned over half a century in the media spotlight.  The following video, compiled by the good doctor's friends and family, is a compilation of many of the highlights of her career.






So, while I'm sure that you all join me in wishing Dr Brothers all the best today, I'm also sure that you're wondering, "What does all this have to do with a blog about horse racing?"  Well, I'll tell you: It's because the following quote, attributed to Dr Brothers, is one that every horse player in the world should have memorized and committed to heart.  Post it on your computer; write it on your Daily Racing Form; tape it to your refrigerator door; chisel it into stone and put it on your desk; do whatever you have to do to make the following a part of your handicapping process:

"Trust your hunches. They're usually based on facts filed away just below the conscious level." - Dr Joyce Brothers

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Horse Watch Follow-Up - Applauding

Having written about the three year old filly Applauding on this blog back in July and then again in September, I don't think I need to repeat her whole story again.  However, I do want to report the good news that she is back in training, having breezed four furlongs at Keeneland on Columbus Day (16/28) and then again earlier today, October 14 (19/34).

I still have no idea what caused the one month break in her workout pattern.  Maybe she was injured; or maybe she needed the rest; or maybe Trainer Al Stall didn't like the way she was performing on the track.  Or maybe she just doesn't like working out on Saturdays, and prefers Sundays and Holidays instead.  The bottom line is that she is working over the track again, and that is good news for me and all other racing fans who would like to see this Florida bred return to action and (hopefully) once again demonstrate the form and potential that she showed as a two year old.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/14/12 WO - Race 10 - The Canadian International - Results

Joshua Tree (Final Odds 4.35-1), with Jockey Frankie Dettori on top, jumped to the early lead, set a leisurely pace (51.59 for the first half mile; 1:17.17 for the first six furlongs) and held tough at the end (23.58 for the final quarter) to wire the field in Sunday's running of the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes at Woodbine.  Dandino (25.4-1) took the Place, a half length behind Joshua Tree; while Forte Dei Marmi (8.35-1) finished a half length behind Dandino to take the Show.

Since Imperial Monarch (1.8-1) and Prince Will I Am (20.75-1) both finished out of the money, my flyer wager and exotic plays were total wipe outs, resulting in an eighteen dollar loss.  However, with Joshua Tree paying $10.70 / $6.10 / $4.40, the five dollars I played across returned fifty-three dollars, making for a net profit on the race of twenty dollars.  

Not bad for a prep race.  I hope you all had it with me.

Onto the next race!

For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the DRF version of events is available here.  Video replay of the race is available in several places, including here.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/14/12 WO - Race 10 - The Canadian International - Preview

With the Breeders' Cup less than three weeks away, I thought it would be a good idea for me to analyze a race that closely resembles the BC Turf races that I'll soon be handicapping; the idea being to get accustomed to looking at Past Performances which include several European invaders, and where all the combatants are of Grade 1 caliber.  Basically, I wanted a race where I could prep as a handicapper for the Breeders' Cup; one that I could examine, but not make a significant investment.  

For that reason, I decided to take a look at Sunday's 75th running of the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes (Race 10 at Woodbine).  The race is scheduled to be run at a distance of twelve furlongs over the (just outside) Toronto Turf.  Eleven horses were entered, but (as I write this) there has been one scratch: # 9 Al Khali (Morning Line 10-1).  

Since this is a DRF.com "Race of the Day", free Daily Racing Form Past Performances are available at the DRF.com home page, along with video analysis by Dan Illman and Mike Beer.  You can also review some insightful analysis into the race here.

Before I go further, this seems as good a place as any to direct your attention to this site: Save Canadian Racing.  If you're any fan at all of horse racing in Canada, you owe it to yourself to check it out.

Getting back to the race: 

#10 Imperial Monarch (IRE) (ML 3-1) has only one loss in his four career tries; that came in the French Derby, and the unanimous consensus seems to be that Imperial Monarch received a nightmare trip.  

# 6 Wigmore Hall (IRE) (ML 6-1) has two wins in two tries at this distance over this turf course; those victories coming last year and this year in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer (note that in both years, Wigmore Hall ran out of the money in the Arlington Million in his race immediately preceding the Northern Dancer; that could be a commentary on the different surfaces, or it could suggest that Wigmore Hall is better suited to races where the purse has fewer than seven digits to the left of the decimal point).

# 7 Reliable Man (GB) (ML 4-1) is winless in thirteen months and disappointed as the favorite in the Group 3 La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte his last time out.  Reliable Man is making his North American debut today, as are # 1 Lay Time (GB) (ML 20-1); # 2 Dandino (GB) (ML 8-1); and the above mentioned Imperial Monarch.

# 11 Air Support (ML 10-1) has competed only once in his career at the Grade 1 level, that being at this Summer's United Nations Stakes at Monmouth Park, where he took the Place.  This will be Air Support's first try at a mile and a half; and while his Tomlinson rating for Turf/Distance suggests that he should handle it, color me skeptical.

I'm currently leaning towards # 8 Joshua Tree (IRE) (ML 5-1).  I'm a sucker for prior winners of a race attempting to repeat, and Joshua Tree finished first (at 4.6-1) in the 2010 running of this event (he took the Place last year, at 11.45-1).  The commentary lines in the Past Performances show that Joshua Tree was either on the lead or close up early in each of his prior two starts, which suggests that he enters this contest in top form.

As with the upcoming Breeders' Cup races, no matter which entrant you land on in this field, you'll be betting on a quality horse; which makes going for price an excellent strategy.  Post time is scheduled for 5:44 EDT / 2:44 PDT; I'll try to have my play up before then, which I'll post in the Comments section.  As always, I look forward to hearing what you have to say; preferably here, though you may feel free to email me instead, if you're more comfortable with that method of communication.

Finally, a little history: Secretariat's last race was in the 1973 running of the Canadian International (then run at a distance of thirteen furlongs).  Below, courtesy of YouTube, is a documentary about that event.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

7/5/12 BHP Race 8 - Key Race - Update

Key Race 7/5/2012 BHP Race 8, first noted here August 2, has now come back in full:

Rock Off - 5th 10/6/12 SA Race 7
Symphonic Cat - 7th 9/30/12 SA Race 10
Rintoo -WIN 8/3/12 DMR Race 2
St. Sincere - SHOW 8/17/12 DMR Race 2
You're Joking - WIN 8/1/12 DMR Race 4
Hammer the Bay - WIN 7/20/12 DMR Race 8
In High Regards - SHOW 8/23/12 DMR Race 8

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Winning Post Position Abnormalities - Update

And now we have numbers, and I can do a real update!  But first, let me bring the folks that are new around here up to speed.

Back on June 30 I posted that there was something a little off about the winning post positions at Calder Race Course during its Calder (Summer) Meet; not in all races, but just in dirt sprints.  Here's the chart that went with that post:

Calder Race Course Standings - Through June 29, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........277.........57.......... 20.6
2.........277.........24.............8.7
3.........277.........45...........16.2
4.........277.........35...........12.6
5.........277.........31...........11.2
6.........258.........32...........12.4
7.........207.........21...........10.1
8.........123.........19...........15.4
9..........59...........6............10.2
10.........29..........6............20.7
11..........7...........1............14.3
12..........4...........0..............0.0

Notice how infrequently horses were winning from out of the Number Two hole?  As to why this was happening, your guess is as good as mine; but it's obvious that Post Position 2 was not winning its fair share in dirt sprints.

On August 1, I posted an update; with chart (of course), which I reproduce here:

Calder Race Course Standings - Through July 31, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........392.........75.......... 19.1
2.........392.........35.............8.9
3.........392.........60...........15.3
4.........391.........48...........12.3
5.........389.........45...........11.6
6.........364.........48...........13.2
7.........294.........32...........10.9
8.........175.........33...........18.9
9..........83...........7.............8.4
10.........39..........8............20.5
11.........10..........1............10.0
12..........5...........0.............0.0

As you can see, things had gotten somewhat better for hoses running from the Number Two Post Position; not a whole lot better, but there was improvement: in the one hundred fifteen races between the two charts, PP2 won eleven times; slightly less than ten percent of the time.  Again, an improvement; but still not even close to its fair share, especially when compared to its competitors to its immediate left and right (PP1 and PP3)

My plan was to update these numbers again soon after the close of the Calder Meet at the end of August.  However, as I posted on September 20 the data that I was using, from Equibase.com, was no longer to be found on Calder's Track Profile Page.  So I had no numbers with which to provide an update.

OK; now everyone's up to speed.

And now, thanks to the very helpful Jessica Knox at Equibase Company, I know where to obtain the numbers that I was looking for on the Equibase.com site.

Since I'm not much on keeping secrets, let me first fill all of you in on where to find the data.  On pretty much any Equibase.com page you can click the "Store" button, which brings you to the Handicapper's Store (don't worry; none of this will cost you a dime).  From that page, click on "Stats Central", which gives you quite a selection of free stuff.  For the purposes of this post, clicking on "Meet Statistics" brings you to a couple of drop down menus where you can select a track and meet.  In this case, we're clicking on "CRC-Calder Race Course" for Track, and then "4/9/2012 to 8/31/2012" for Meet.  If you've done all that, you should find yourself inside a PDF file; and from that point, it's just a matter of scrolling on down to the last page to get the stats for Winning Post Positions at Calder; which are as follows:

Calder Race Course Standings - Through August 30, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........491.........93.......... 18.9
2.........491.........54...........11.0
3.........491.........72...........14.7
4.........490.........60...........12.2
5.........487.........58...........11.9
6.........457.........54...........11.8
7.........368.........38...........10.3
8.........222.........40...........18.0
9.........108.........11...........10.2
10.........50.........10...........20.2
11.........13..........1.............7.7
12..........6...........0.............0.0

That's quite an improvement for Post Position Number 2.  PP2 won nineteen of the ninety-nine dirt spints in which it competed during the month of August at Calder.  That's a winning percentage more than double what it had been for the previous four months of the Calder meet.    And just to flesh out that picture a little bit more, let's take a look at the numbers so far in the Tropical Meet at CRC (again, courtesy of the good people at the Equibase Company):

CRC Tropical Meet Standings - Through October 10, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........164.........26.......... 15.9
2.........164.........23...........14.0
3.........164.........23...........14.0
4.........164.........27...........16.5
5.........160.........16...........10.0
6.........141.........23...........16.3
7.........101.........11..........10.9
8..........43.........11...........25.6
9..........22..........2.............9.1
10........11..........3............27.3
11.........2...........0.............0.0

If you combine the numbers for August with the Tropical Meet stats, you get PP2 winning forty-two times in two hundred sixty-three tries; or just a shade under sixteen percent.

So whatever was going on with Post Position Number Two during the early part of the Calder Meet seems to have corrected itself.  Hopefully those of you who play the Miami track were sharp enough to sell PP2 when it was running cold and then buy in as soon as it got hot.  And if anyone should ever figure out what was going on with PP2 in CRC dirt sprints during the early part of this Summer, I'd appreciate it if you'd post a comment here so as to let the rest of us know.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/8/12 FNO Race 5 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

City Chapel, a three year old gelding by Chapel Royal, is one of the longshot claims whose story we've been  following.  City Chapel was scooped up by Trainer and Owner Victor Trujillo for $4,000 out of Race 5 at Golden Gate Fields on August 26, a race for non-winners of two lifetime (NW2L) in which City Chapel went to Post at Final Odds of 29.8-1, and finished fifth.  City Chapel made his first start for his new connections in Race 9 at Golden Gate on September 15, again for NW2L, but this time with a price tag of $12.5k.  Racing at Final Odds of 30.3-1, City Chapel closed late but finished fifth, a little less than four lengths behind the winner.

This past Monday, October 8, City Chapel made his second start for his new connections.  Running in the fifth race at Fesno ($8k Claiming NW2L) City Chapel went to Post at Final Odds of 6.9-1, broke fifth, came four wide into the stretch, and took the Place, one length behind the winner, Legal Victory (2.9-1).  In addition to paying $6.40 / $3.00 to Place and Show, along with being 50% of a Quinella that returned $29.60 for every two dollars bet, City Chapel's second place finish brought back $2,050 in purse money for Owner/Trainer Trujillo.

So City Chapel has, in about six weeks time, earned back over half his original purchase price for his new connections.  Congrats to Victor Trujillo on making good on his claim, turning a horse that was an also ran at nearly 30-1 odds in a $4k Claimer into a Place finisher at twice that price in less than two months.  Meanwhile, we'll continue to follow City Chapel, and report back regarding how he builds upon that success.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/7/12 SA Race 1 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

Early last month, while writing about Goldencents' debut, I recommended that Wild Dude, who had also debuted in that same race, be placed on everyone's respective watch list.  My recommendation was based on Wild Dude having taken the Place behind Goldencents by over two lengths over the rest of the field in that five and a half furlong sprint.

Well, Wild Dude made his second career start (and his first on real dirt) in Sunday's curtain jerker at Santa Anita.  Leaving the gate at Final Odds of 2.8-1, the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained two year old colt broke mid-pack and raced evenly throughout the seven furlongs contest; never further back than three lengths from the lead, yet never closer than two lengths from the front.  Wild Dude eventually finished fourth, two and a half lengths behind the winner, Super Ninety Nine (4.2-1).  Not a performance that does much to flatter Goldencents; but an adequate performance, none-the-less; and certainly one that his connections can build on for the future.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/6/12 SA Race 7 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

About six weeks ago I wrote about Crown Over, a four year old gelding who was claimed for $25k out of Race 9 at Golden Gate Fields on August 25 by Trainer James Kasparoff.   Since Crown Over had left the gate that day at Final Odds of 32.2-1, I was intrigued that a horse that the public viewed as totally over-matched at that class level would be claimed for that price (if you follow this blog regularly, you already know that fascination with longshot claims is a recurring theme).

On Saturday, October 6, Crown Over made his first start off the claim for Kasparoff, running down the hill in Race 7 at Santa Anita Park.  The race was a Starter Allowance (NW2L), so it was a step up the class ladder for Crown Over, who went to Post at Final Odds of 12.9-1.  According to the chart caller, Crown Over broke ninth, pulled early, was steadied, closed fast on the inside, and finished seventh, three and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Bev N Bud (5.5-1).

Crown Over's seventh place finish was worth $350 in purse money to his new connections, so he still a ways to go before he brings back that $25k investment to Kasparoff.  Or maybe he doesn't.  Note that when Crown Over was claimed on August 25, Kasparoff was named as both the new trainer and the new owner.  But the chart for Saturday's race lists the owner as Calvin Nguyen.  So perhaps Kasparoff has already made his money back on a private sale; or, maybe it was Nguyen's claim all along, and Kasparoff was listed as the new owner as a snafu, or perhaps simply to expedite the paperwork (by the way, if anyone reading this has the full story, please fill us in via the comment section; or, if  you prefer, you can just shoot me an email).

Anyway, I'll be keeping Crown Over on my watch list, if for no other reason than to see if he ever does return back the $25k that was shelled out to get him to change barns.  Anyone want to offer a prediction on whether or not he'll turn a profit before he changes connections again?

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/6/12 BEL - Race 8 - The Champagne - Results

Shanghai Bobby (Final Odds 1.65-1), with Jockey Rosie Napravnik on board, made it a perfect four-for-four for his career Saturday by winning The Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park by a comfortable five lengths, paying $5.30 / $2.90 / $2.10.  Goldencents (3.70-1) set the early pace, covering the first half mile in 47.45 seconds, and held on for the Place, paying $5.40 / $3.20.  Finishing a length behind Goldencents was Fortify (6.20-1) paying $3.20 to Show.  The Shanghai Bobby / Goldencents Exacta paid $13.00 for a buck, while the Shanghai Bobby / Goldencents / Fortify Trifecta returned $39.50 for every dollar wagered.

As I mentioned in the preview, The Champagne was a "Win & You're In" race, so Shanghai Bobby has his ticket punched to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; that is, if his connections want it.  In this article by David Grening at DRF.com, Jack Wolf, founder of Starlightracing (owner of Shanghai Bobby) is quoted as saying, "I was a believer then [in 2001, with Shanghai Bobby's sire Harlan's Holiday], and I probably am still, that the horses that run in the 2-year-old Breeders’ Cup race don’t come back,” Wolf said. “With the exception of last year; last year was unbelievable how they came back.  We’ll take our time and decide.  I really don’t know what the right answer is right now.”  So we'll have to wait and see if Shanghai Bobby will make the trip to Santa Anita next month.

Anyway, there's nothing like hitting a Trifecta cold to help you believe that you might actually know what you're talking about.  I hope you all had it with me.

Onto the next race!

For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race is available here, while those who prefer their charts in the Daily Racing Form format may view theirs here.  If you go to the article by David Grening that I linked to above, you should be able to view a replay of The Champagne.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

10/6/12 BEL - Race 8 - The Champagne - Preview

Saturday's 8th race at Belmont Park is the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, a contest for two year olds run at a distance of eight furlongs over the main dirt track. The race is one of the Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races, along with being a Breeders' Cup "Win & You’re In" race.  Drawn for a field of seven, six are currently scheduled to enter the gate, as #6 Bern Identity has been scratched.

Any analysis of this field must begin with the trio of entrants trained by Todd Pletcher: #4 Archwarrior (Morning Line 5-2); #2 Shanghai Bobby (ML 3-1), and #7 Micromanage (ML 5-1).  Pletcher has trained the Champagne Stakes winner on three separate occasions and, with half of today's field being from his stable, must be considered likely to add another to that number [TRIVIA QUESTION: Which trainer has won the Champagne Stakes the most times?  Answer below].

Archwarrior was sired by Arch, the damsire of 2010 Champagne Stakes winner Uncle Mo.  Beyond that bit of history, it's hard to see why the racing secretary would make Archwarrior the Morning Line Favorite over Shanghai Bobby, the winner of the Hopeful Stakes last month at Saratoga; if the public should bet according to the Morning Line, Shanghai Bobby would be a very attractive wager indeed.  The third horse in Pletcher's stable, Micromanage (ML 5-1), had been cross-entered in the Dover Stakes, where he no doubt would have been the heavy favorite; Pletcher opts instead to face the stiffer competition here, a decision no doubt (at least somewhat) influenced by the favorable outside draw for this one turn mile.

I wrote about #1 Goldencents (ML 3-1) in this blog last month after his impressive debut at Del Mar.  I like the courage that Trainer Doug O'Neill shows in shipping this colt cross-country, rather than keeping him at home in Southern California.  Goldencents draws the rail, always a concern with young horses; however, keep in mind that Goldencents did his best running late in his debut, suggesting that Jockey Kevin Krigger can allow him to drop back in the early going, rather than fighting for the lead on the inside.  It's worth noting that Goldencents' sire, Into Mischief, won twice in three askings as a two year old, including a victory in the 2007 Grade 1 CashCall Futurity.

#5 Fortify (ML 6-1) is certainly one to watch based on pedigree.  Fortify's grandsire, Forty Niner, won this race back in 1987, as part of an impressive five-for-six two year old season, which included four graded stakes victories.  Fortify's damsire is A. P. Indy, winner of the 1991 Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity as a two year old, and sire of 2000 Champagne Stakes winner A P Valentine.  Fortify has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field; and, should the weather turn bad, he also has the best Tomlinson Rating in this group for wet surfaces.  Jockey Ramon Dominguez gets the mount today; in his two prior career starts, Fortify was ridden by Joe Bravo

#3 Chief Havoc (ML 15-1) also does well in the pedigree department.  The above mentioned A. P. Indy is his damsire; and Chief Havoc's sire is Giant's Causeway, who also sired 2005 Champagne Stakes winner First Samurai.  Chief Havoc is the only entrant in this field to have previously competed at today's distance, having twice gone eight furlongs; once on grass, and once on plastic.  With all that, it's important to note that Chief Havoc is still a maiden, which makes his placing here rather ambitious.

If all odds were even, my selection here would be #2 Shanghai Bobby; but that's not how this game is played.  I've already written of my fondness for #1 Goldencents; if the New York bettors disregard this California invader, he could be a huge overlay.  If I choose to play purely for price, then #5 Fortify gets the nod, especially if he gets ignored on the board.  I can tell you that my top pick will be one of these three; and if I were playing the multi-race wagers at Belmont today, this is the trio that  I would use for this leg.  I'll try to post my play in this race prior to post in the Comments section.

Good luck to all.

ANSWER TO TRIVIA QUESTION: The trainer with the most wins in the Champagne Stakes is Nick Zito, with five (1998, 1999, 2000, 2003, and 2007).

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

The Road to the Kentucky Derby

As I'm sure most of you reading this are already aware, qualifying for next year's Kentucky Derby is going to be somewhat different than it has been in years past.  Actually, it's going to be a lot different.

Previously, entrants to the Kentucky Derby (of which there are a maximum of twenty) were determined based upon who had the most graded-stakes earnings.  Starting in 2013, qualifying entrants will be determined based upon a new system that rewards points to the top four finishers in thirty-six designated races.  Included among the three dozen designated races are every graded-stakes scheduled to be run in 2013 for three year olds on a dirt track, at a distance of a mile or more, prior to the first Saturday in May.  Well, not every race in that category.  Can you guess who got screwed?

Anyway, the chase for the Kentucky Derby has already begun, with last month's running of Royal Lodge Stakes in Newmarket, England, along with the race formerly known as the Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita.  Current standings in the chase can be found here.

OK; the new system was announced this summer; the chase races began last month: so why am I blogging about this today?  Well, it's because I just stumbled upon what I think is a pretty neat graphic of The Road to the Kentucky Derby, which I'm going to try to share here.  So here goes:


Road to the Kentucky Derby - Infographic

And let's not forget the ladies:


Road to the Kentucky Oaks - Infographic

Hopefully the above show up OK.  If not, please let me know.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/29/12 STK Race 8 - The Crowd Gets It Right

On one or two occasions in this blog, I've pointed out times when the California betting public had lost its way with regards to properly predicting the outcome of a race.  That being the case, it seems only fair that I make mention of a race that the crowd absolutely nailed.

The finale at Stockton this past Saturday was a $4,000 Claiming event for three year old and upward, non-winners of two lifetime.  It was run at a distance of eight furlongs over God-made dirt, with seven horses going to post.  Jockey Russell Baze was aboard the winner (surprise, surprise) giving him his third win on the day.  

So what was it that made this race so special?  Well, take a look at the complete order of finish, along with each entrant's Final Odds:

Bespoke Suit.....................0.90
Jones Brother....................1.50
Mustang Casino...............12.80
Idoitmyway Baby..............14.00
Fishing My Way...............16.00
El Tejon...........................17.40
Heray Lucky Pulpit...........20.40

The favorite, the public's top choice according to their wagering dollars, was victorious.  The public's second choice took the Place.  The public's third choice took the Show.  And so on, all the way down the line; each of the seven horses in the race finished in the exact order of their final odds.

Well done, betting public; well done.  That just doesn't happen all that often in races where more than a half dozen entrants leave the gate.

The public's reward for being perfectly correct in predicting the outcome of the race is that a lot of people got to cash a lot of tickets for not a lot of money.  The prices for Race 8:


#.......HORSE..................WIN.........PLACE..........SHOW
8.......Bespoke Suit........$3.80.........$2.20.............$2.20
5.......Jones Brother........................$2.60..............$2.40
7.......Mustang Casino..........................................$4.00

$1 Exacta ------------------- $3.70
$2 Quinella ----------------- $4.40
$1 Trifecta ---------------- $14.00
$1 Superfecta ----------- $59.50
$1 Super High Five ---$105.10

For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the DRF version of events is available here.  And, since it's such a special event, let's throw in a link to the Brisnet chart of the race as well, which can be found over here.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo