And now we have numbers, and I can do a real update! But first, let me bring the folks that are new around here up to speed.
Back on June 30 I posted that there was something a little off about the winning post positions at Calder Race Course during its Calder (Summer) Meet; not in all races, but just in dirt sprints. Here's the chart that went with that post:
Calder Race Course Standings - Through June 29, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........277.........57.......... 20.6
2.........277.........24.............8.7
3.........277.........45...........16.2
4.........277.........35...........12.6
5.........277.........31...........11.2
6.........258.........32...........12.4
7.........207.........21...........10.1
8.........123.........19...........15.4
9..........59...........6............10.2
10.........29..........6............20.7
11..........7...........1............14.3
12..........4...........0..............0.0
Notice how infrequently horses were winning from out of the Number Two hole? As to why this was happening, your guess is as good as mine; but it's obvious that Post Position 2 was not winning its fair share in dirt sprints.
On August 1, I posted an update; with chart (of course), which I reproduce here:
Calder Race Course Standings - Through July 31, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........392.........75.......... 19.1
2.........392.........35.............8.9
3.........392.........60...........15.3
4.........391.........48...........12.3
5.........389.........45...........11.6
6.........364.........48...........13.2
7.........294.........32...........10.9
8.........175.........33...........18.9
9..........83...........7.............8.4
10.........39..........8............20.5
11.........10..........1............10.0
12..........5...........0.............0.0
As you can see, things had gotten somewhat better for hoses running from the Number Two Post Position; not a whole lot better, but there was improvement: in the one hundred fifteen races between the two charts, PP2 won eleven times; slightly less than ten percent of the time. Again, an improvement; but still not even close to its fair share, especially when compared to its competitors to its immediate left and right (PP1 and PP3)
My plan was to update these numbers again soon after the close of the Calder Meet at the end of August. However, as I posted on September 20 the data that I was using, from Equibase.com, was no longer to be found on Calder's Track Profile Page. So I had no numbers with which to provide an update.
OK; now everyone's up to speed.
And now, thanks to the very helpful Jessica Knox at Equibase Company, I know where to obtain the numbers that I was looking for on the Equibase.com site.
Since I'm not much on keeping secrets, let me first fill all of you in on where to find the data. On pretty much any Equibase.com page you can click the "Store" button, which brings you to the Handicapper's Store (don't worry; none of this will cost you a dime). From that page, click on "Stats Central", which gives you quite a selection of free stuff. For the purposes of this post, clicking on "Meet Statistics" brings you to a couple of drop down menus where you can select a track and meet. In this case, we're clicking on "CRC-Calder Race Course" for Track, and then "4/9/2012 to 8/31/2012" for Meet. If you've done all that, you should find yourself inside a PDF file; and from that point, it's just a matter of scrolling on down to the last page to get the stats for Winning Post Positions at Calder; which are as follows:
Calder Race Course Standings - Through August 30, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........491.........93.......... 18.9
2.........491.........54...........11.0
3.........491.........72...........14.7
4.........490.........60...........12.2
5.........487.........58...........11.9
6.........457.........54...........11.8
7.........368.........38...........10.3
8.........222.........40...........18.0
9.........108.........11...........10.2
10.........50.........10...........20.2
11.........13..........1.............7.7
12..........6...........0.............0.0
That's quite an improvement for Post Position Number 2. PP2 won nineteen of the ninety-nine dirt spints in which it competed during the month of August at Calder. That's a winning percentage more than double what it had been for the previous four months of the Calder meet. And just to flesh out that picture a little bit more, let's take a look at the numbers so far in the Tropical Meet at CRC (again, courtesy of the good people at the Equibase Company):
CRC Tropical Meet Standings - Through October 10, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........164.........26.......... 15.9
2.........164.........23...........14.0
3.........164.........23...........14.0
4.........164.........27...........16.5
5.........160.........16...........10.0
6.........141.........23...........16.3
7.........101.........11..........10.9
8..........43.........11...........25.6
9..........22..........2.............9.1
10........11..........3............27.3
11.........2...........0.............0.0
If you combine the numbers for August with the Tropical Meet stats, you get PP2 winning forty-two times in two hundred sixty-three tries; or just a shade under sixteen percent.
So whatever was going on with Post Position Number Two during the early part of the Calder Meet seems to have corrected itself. Hopefully those of you who play the Miami track were sharp enough to sell PP2 when it was running cold and then buy in as soon as it got hot. And if anyone should ever figure out what was going on with PP2 in CRC dirt sprints during the early part of this Summer, I'd appreciate it if you'd post a comment here so as to let the rest of us know.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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