10/6/12 BEL - Race 8 - The Champagne - Preview

Saturday's 8th race at Belmont Park is the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, a contest for two year olds run at a distance of eight furlongs over the main dirt track. The race is one of the Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races, along with being a Breeders' Cup "Win & You’re In" race.  Drawn for a field of seven, six are currently scheduled to enter the gate, as #6 Bern Identity has been scratched.

Any analysis of this field must begin with the trio of entrants trained by Todd Pletcher: #4 Archwarrior (Morning Line 5-2); #2 Shanghai Bobby (ML 3-1), and #7 Micromanage (ML 5-1).  Pletcher has trained the Champagne Stakes winner on three separate occasions and, with half of today's field being from his stable, must be considered likely to add another to that number [TRIVIA QUESTION: Which trainer has won the Champagne Stakes the most times?  Answer below].

Archwarrior was sired by Arch, the damsire of 2010 Champagne Stakes winner Uncle Mo.  Beyond that bit of history, it's hard to see why the racing secretary would make Archwarrior the Morning Line Favorite over Shanghai Bobby, the winner of the Hopeful Stakes last month at Saratoga; if the public should bet according to the Morning Line, Shanghai Bobby would be a very attractive wager indeed.  The third horse in Pletcher's stable, Micromanage (ML 5-1), had been cross-entered in the Dover Stakes, where he no doubt would have been the heavy favorite; Pletcher opts instead to face the stiffer competition here, a decision no doubt (at least somewhat) influenced by the favorable outside draw for this one turn mile.

I wrote about #1 Goldencents (ML 3-1) in this blog last month after his impressive debut at Del Mar.  I like the courage that Trainer Doug O'Neill shows in shipping this colt cross-country, rather than keeping him at home in Southern California.  Goldencents draws the rail, always a concern with young horses; however, keep in mind that Goldencents did his best running late in his debut, suggesting that Jockey Kevin Krigger can allow him to drop back in the early going, rather than fighting for the lead on the inside.  It's worth noting that Goldencents' sire, Into Mischief, won twice in three askings as a two year old, including a victory in the 2007 Grade 1 CashCall Futurity.

#5 Fortify (ML 6-1) is certainly one to watch based on pedigree.  Fortify's grandsire, Forty Niner, won this race back in 1987, as part of an impressive five-for-six two year old season, which included four graded stakes victories.  Fortify's damsire is A. P. Indy, winner of the 1991 Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity as a two year old, and sire of 2000 Champagne Stakes winner A P Valentine.  Fortify has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field; and, should the weather turn bad, he also has the best Tomlinson Rating in this group for wet surfaces.  Jockey Ramon Dominguez gets the mount today; in his two prior career starts, Fortify was ridden by Joe Bravo

#3 Chief Havoc (ML 15-1) also does well in the pedigree department.  The above mentioned A. P. Indy is his damsire; and Chief Havoc's sire is Giant's Causeway, who also sired 2005 Champagne Stakes winner First Samurai.  Chief Havoc is the only entrant in this field to have previously competed at today's distance, having twice gone eight furlongs; once on grass, and once on plastic.  With all that, it's important to note that Chief Havoc is still a maiden, which makes his placing here rather ambitious.

If all odds were even, my selection here would be #2 Shanghai Bobby; but that's not how this game is played.  I've already written of my fondness for #1 Goldencents; if the New York bettors disregard this California invader, he could be a huge overlay.  If I choose to play purely for price, then #5 Fortify gets the nod, especially if he gets ignored on the board.  I can tell you that my top pick will be one of these three; and if I were playing the multi-race wagers at Belmont today, this is the trio that  I would use for this leg.  I'll try to post my play in this race prior to post in the Comments section.

Good luck to all.

ANSWER TO TRIVIA QUESTION: The trainer with the most wins in the Champagne Stakes is Nick Zito, with five (1998, 1999, 2000, 2003, and 2007).

Peace and Love,

Jimbo