8/31/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The John C Mabee - # 1 Vasilika (Final Odds 1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 American Theorem (2.20*) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Del Mar Debutante - # 5 Bast (2.80) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 2 Jamming Eddy (3.20) - "A" Selection

So for the second week in a row I needlessly doubled the cost of my main ticket.  I also went "ALL" in the nightcap just to watch my "A" Selection win by daylight.  Such mistakes are not easily overcome; and therefore I find myself with tickets having three of the four winners, meaning that I once again contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 5 / 5 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $118.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/31/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

“Follow your passion, be prepared to work hard and sacrifice, and, above all, don’t let anyone limit your dreams.” - Donovan Bailey

It's Labor Day weekend in the USA, and concurrent with this three day celebration comes the final weekend of the Summer Del Mar meet.  To help celebrate the occasion the good folks in Southern California have written a card with two Graded Stakes, both of which can be found in the final four contests on the program.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - (F) The John C Mabee (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A's

# 1 Vasilika (Morning Line 9-5)

B's

# 10 Meal Ticket (ML 20-1)

C's

# 2 Paved (ML 12-1)
# 3 La Force (Ger) (ML 12-1)
# 4 Toinette (ML 3-1)
# 5 Ahimsa (ML 8-1)
# 6 Ippodamia's Girl (ML 30-1)
# 7 Juliet Foxtrot (GB) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Quebec (ML 15-1)
# 9 Elysea's World (Ire) (ML 12-1)

Vasilika looks best here; but then, Vasilika always looks best.  And for good reason: because she usually is best, including when she won last year's running of this event.  So Vasilika should probably be a single here; but, for the second week in a row, I'm doubling the cost of my main ticket by adding another runner to the big Favorite in the Grade 2 contest in the sequence.

As can be seen above, the "B" Selection that I'm pairing up with Vasilika on the main ticket is Meal Ticket.  While Meal Ticket has been defeated multiple times in the past by Vasilika, Meal Ticket has shown an affinity for this turf course; and Meal Ticket is a proven winner at Saturday's distance.  In addition, Meal Ticket is most likely going to leave the gate as the longest shot on the board.

So, in what will quite probably be proven to be a foolish decision when this race is run, I will be going two deep in this leg, slotting the rest of the field into place as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 8 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Backshot (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Zimba Warrior (ML 12-1)
# 6 Hydrogen (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Thunder Code (ML 20-1)
# 4 Honor Among Men (ML 8-1)
# 5 American Theorem (ML 3-1)
# 7 Three Footer (ML 20-1)
# 8 Whirl Candy (ML 7-2)
# 9 Big Hoof Dynamite (ML 20-1)

These are juveniles, with only two experienced runners in the field: Zimba Warrior and Hydrogen, who both took the Show at this class level (in separate contests) in their respective debuts.  Backshot, like Hydrogen, is trained by Bob Baffert; and Backshot looks best among the first timers.  Indeed, Backshot has been working well enough that I believe that he is the most likely winner in this field.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) The Del Mar Debutante (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Inspiressa (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Comical (ML 12-1)
# 4 Leucothea (ML 3-1)
# 5 Bast (ML 7-2)
# 6 Powerfulattraction (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Lazy Daisy (ML 20-1)
# 3 Pure Xena (ML 6-1)
# 8 Stellar Sound (ML 6-1)

Inspiressa and Bast filled out the Exacta in their respective debuts on August 11.  Comical is the only runner here to have defeated winners, doing so in the Grade 3 Schuylerville at Saratoga.

Trainer Peter Miller had to drop Leucothea in for a tag in order for her to graduate; but Leucothea won so convincingly that it seems fair to presume that she can compete with these.  Powerfulattraction took the Place in the Grade 2 Sorrento last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Jamming Eddy (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Loaded Joe (ML 4-1)
# 3 Play Money (ML 5-1)
# 5 Fredikstad (ML 8-1)
# 8 No Parking Here (ML 12-1)
# 9 Bud Knight (ML 12-1)
# 10 Fravel (ML 3-1)
# 11 Cool Your Jets (ML 8-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 4 Endless Tale (No Line); # 6 Watch the Dip (ML 15-1); and # 7 Cafe Clara (ML 20-1)

Yeah, I'm going "ALL" here.  Probably not the wisest of moves; but if by some miracle I get Meal Ticket home, and guess right in both juvenile contests, I deserve to collect.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 7 with 2 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,10 with 1,3,6 with 2,4,5,6,7 with ALL $120.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 3 with 7 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,4,5,7,8,9 with 7 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 1,3,8 with 2 $1.50

Total: $129.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:15 EDT / 5:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/24/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 7 Greg's Diva (Final Odds 1.10*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 5 Fashionably Fast (6.10) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - The Pat O'Brien - # 7 Catalina Cruiser (0.50*) - "A" Selection

Race 10 - # 2 M Town Gem (15.80) - "C" Selection

The Pat O'Brien saw an epic throw down between Catalina Cruiser and # 4 Great Expectations (3.90), with the Favorite needing to give all that he had to get under the wire just a head in front.  So, on the one hand, I was correct in my prediction that Great Expectations would "give Catalina Cruiser a serious run for his money."  But on the other hand, the odds on favorite did win, meaning I could have significantly cut the cost of my play by making Catalina Cruiser a big ticket single.

The nightcap saw another tight finish, with just a head separating the top three finishers.  So change the results of the second half of the sequence by a head each and this could have been a profitable day; but the two heads proved to be too much, making Saturday a day to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the three runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:

# 1 Tartini (6.30) - $120.70 Finish: 7th

# 4 Combat Zone (2.50*) - $56.05 Finish: 3rd

# 5 River God (7.60) - $145.55 Finish: 8th

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 5 / 7 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $270.60 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/24/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

The Grade 2 Pat O'Brien, named for the famed actor and one of the founding partners of Del Mar Racetrack, is Saturday's featured race in Southern California.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Greg's Diva (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 4 Perfect Rush (ML 6-1)
# 6 Eclair (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Le Tub (ML 20-1)
# 2 Undisturbed (ML 20-1)
# 3 Dipping In (ML 12-1)
# 5 Lovely Lilia (ML 6-1)
# 8 Cherry City (ML 5-1)
# 9 I Give Up (ML 20-1)
# 10 Establish Justice (ML 8-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 11 Pacific Crossing (ML 10-1)

These are juvenile fillies, with the majority of the field being first time starters; while none of the experienced runners have ever competed on the grass.  So if your budget allows, you might want to give strong consideration to just punching the "ALL" button for this leg.  Or perhaps not.  I'm going to try to get by on the cheap in this contest, hoping that the runners that showed speed on the main track will be able to do so while switching to the turf.

Greg's Diva has taken the Place at this class level in each of her two dirt starts.  Perfect Rush is a debut runner trained by John Sadler, who's been winning most everything here of late.

Eclair, trained by Bob Baffert, showed good early foot in her debut last time out.  Eclair is also shedding the hood; Baffert tends to do well when he takes the blinkers off his runners.  Of course, Baffert tends to do well, period.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 13 Camby (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 1 Coil Me Home (ML 5-1)
# 2 Cool Bobby (ML 7-2)
# 3 Royal Trump (ML 8-1)
# 5 Fashionably Fast (ML 9-2)
# 7 Cruel Intention (ML 3-1)
# 9 Oakland Mills (ML 20-1)

C's

# 6 Posterize (ML 20-1)
# 8 Getaloadofthis (ML 15-1)
# 10 Boogalute (ML 20-1)
# 11 Heartfullofstars (ML 20-1)
# 12 Grinning Tiger (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 4 Candy Cornell (ML 8-1)

For those who like to be kept aware of such things, none of the runners in this field will be leaving the gate with the $40k price tag on their head.  If any were, then they would be running for a purse of $52k, rather than $64k.  But they're not; so they won't.

Camby took the Show at this class level last time out, and Camby's breeding suggests that he could improve with the additional furlong.  Coil Me Home and Cool Bobby are both taking the blinkers off for a pair of trainers (Richard Baltas and Peter Eurton, respectively) whose runners tend to do well when the hood is removed.

Royal Trump, winner of two of his last three, looks capable of handling this step up in class.  Fashionably Fast won by enough last time out to suggest that he can compete against open, rather than just state bred, company.

Cruel Intention, trained by Bob Baffert, could improve going third off the layoff.  Oakland Mills tries winners for the first time after graduating by open lengths last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - The Pat O'Brien (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 7 Catalina Cruiser (ML 4-5)

B's

# 4 Giant Expectations (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Chief Cicatriz (ML 20-1)

# 3 Jalen Journey (ML 5-1)

# 5 Seven Trumpets (ML 15-1)

# 6 American Anthem (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 1 Lieutenant Dan (ML 20-1)

Those of you who went "ALL" in on the opening leg can save some money here by just singling Catalina Cruiser.  Indeed, Catalina Cruiser, winner of the 2018 running of this event by over seven lengths, and winner of two more Graded Stakes since that contest, looks to be clear best in this field.

But I'm going to double the cost of my main play by adding Giant Expectations to the big ticket.  I think that Giant Expectations is to going to benefit enough from the cutback in distance to give Catalina Cruiser a serious run for his money.  So it's two deep for me in this leg, with the rest of the field being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 River God (ML 12-1)

B’s

# 1 Tartini (ML 5-1)

# 4  Combat Zone (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 M Town Gem (ML 12-1)

# 3 Union Ride (ML 20-1)

# 7 Hootie (ML 8-1)

# 8 Storm the Bastille (Fr) (ML 10-1)

# 9 Boru (ML 9-2)

# 10 Reedley (ML 8-1)

# 11 Soul Beam (ML 12-1)

# 12 Into a Hot Spot (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 6 Call You Tomorrow (ML 8-1)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; no exceptions.  Each entrant in this field has visited the winner's circle one time, and one time only.

River God took the Place at this class level last time out.  Tartini could move up with the drop in class.  Combat Zone fits well at this level; though it appears that Combat Zone settles for too many minor awards.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 13 with 7 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6,7 with 1,2,3,5,7,9,13 with 4,7 with 1,4,5 $63.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,8,9,10 with 13 with 7 with 5 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 6,8,10,11,12 with 7 with 5 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 13 with 2,3,5,6 with 5 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 13 with 7 with 2,3,7,8,9,10,11,12 $4.00

Total: $76.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:15 EDT / 5:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/17/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The Torrey Pines - # 7 Fighting Mad (Final Odds 2.30*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Del Mar Oaks - # 1 Cambier Parc (1.20*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Pacific Classic - # 6 Higher Power (9.60) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 14 Super Patriot (9.00) - "C" Selection

If you're going to miss, might as well miss big; which is what I did in Saturday's Pacific Classic, as the three runners which I had covered on my main ticket all manged to finish outside the Superfecta.  But the worse part of Saturday's handicapping was that the two winners that I missed were two that could have been had; as Higher Power had the best breeding for the ten furlong distance in the Pacific Classic field (at least according to the Brisnet PPs); while Super Patriot was going first off the claim for Trainer Richard Baltas, who has been having tremendous success with such of late.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 1 / 6 / 14  were rewarded with a payout of $628.65 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/17/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Pacific Classic Day in Southern California, and to honor the occasion Del Mar is presenting punters with a monster card, featuring five Graded Stakes on the program.  I'll be taking a look at three of those Graded contests below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 8 - (F) The Torrey Pines (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 4 Hollywood Hills (Morning Line 12-1)

B's

# 6 Sneaking Out (ML 7-2)
# 7 Fighting Mad (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Into Chocolate (ML 10-1)
# 2 High Regard (ML 12-1)
# 3 Classic Fit (ML 3-1)
# 8 Kim K (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 5 Colonial Creed (ML 8-1)

Hollywood Hills and Sneaking Out filled out the Exacta in the Fleet Treat last time out, hitting the line just a nose apart.  I think the extra furlong Saturday could favor Hollywood Hills.

Fighting Mad, trained by Bob Baffert, is trying two turns for the first time.  As she shares the same sire as Maximum Security, I suspect that Fighting Mad will do just fine with the stretch out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) The Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A's

# 11 Lady Prancealot (Ire) (ML 8-1)

B's

# 1 Cambier Parc (ML 5-2)
# 10 Mucho Unusual (ML 5-1)
# 14 Hidden Message (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Maxim Rate (ML 20-1)
# 4 Hard Legacy (ML 12-1)
# 5 Raymundos Secret (ML 10-1)
# 6 Keeper Ofthe Stars (ML 10-1)
# 7 Dogtag (ML 8-1)
# 8 Apache Princess (ML 10-1)
# 9 Sold It (ML 30-1)
# 12 Out of Balance (ML 20-1)
# 13 Wildlife (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 3 Strike At Dawn (ML 20-1)

Lady Prancealot (Ire) winner of the Grade 3 Honeymoon last time out, projects to be the one running best late; and if she's in top form, Lady Prancealot could be running past them all in the stretch.  Cambier Park, Show finisher in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks last time out for Trainer Chad Brown, could improve with the cutback in distance.

Mucho Unusual, winner of the Grade 2 San Clemente last time out, is undefeated since moving to the turf.  Kentucky bred Hidden Message is making her North American debut; and if she takes to the firmer turf, then Hidden Message could contend here.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 3 Pavel (ML 7-2)

B's

# 2 Quip (ML 9-2)
# 5 Seeking the Soul (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 War Story (ML 8-1)
# 4 For the Top (Arg) (ML 12-1)
# 6 Higher Power (ML 8-1)
# 7 Tenfold (ML 8-1)
# 8 Campaign (ML 6-1)
# 9 Mongolian Groom (ML 20-1)
# 10 Draft Pick (ML 20-1)

If Pavel runs his race, he wins.  Indeed, if Pavel runs to the best of his ability, I'll be looking mighty foolish for having not made him a single.  But the problem is that there have been too many contests where Pavel hasn't run his race; so, for that reason, I'll be combining the winner of 2018's Stephen Foster (Pavel) with the Exacta of this year's Stephen Foster (Seeking the Soul and Quip), while relegating all others to backup "C" Selection status.

RACE 11 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 11 An Eddie Surprise (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 1 True To Herself (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 7 Betty F (GB) (ML 5-1)
# 8 Salsa Bella (Fr) (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Woodfin (ML 10-1)
# 3 Invincibella (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 5 Ruby Trust (ML 8-1)
# 6 Bornonvalentineday (ML 15-1)
# 10 Lucky Peridot (ML 9-2)
# 12 Querelle (ML 30-1)
# 14 Super Patriot (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 4 Sapphire Kid (ML 30-1); # 9 Peter's Kitten (ML 6-1); and # 13 Desert Oasis (ML 8-1)

None here are entered for a tag; so no need to concern ourselves with details regarding the reduced purse for those runners which are up for sale.

An Eddie Surprise and Salsa Bella (Fr) filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  True To Herself (Ire), well back of those two at the wire in her North American debut, deserves another chance to show what she can do.

Betty F (GB) is making her first North American start for Trainer Paddy Gallagher, who tends to do well with such.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 11 with 3 with 11 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6,7 with 1,10,11,14 with 2,3,5 with 1,7,8,11 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,8 with 11 with 3 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,12,13 with 3 with 11 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 11 with 1,4,6,7,8,9,10 with 11 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 11 with 3 with 2,3,5,6,10,12,14 $3.50

Total: $86.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 8:40 EDT / 5:40 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/10/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 6 Swing Thoughts (Final Odds 3.60) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 K P Slickem (2.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Best Pal - # 5 Collusion Illusion (7.70) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Smoovie (7.60) - "B" Selection

My chances looked good in the Best Pal (Race 8) when the field came out of the turn into the stretch, as # 6 Thanks Mr. Edison (9.20) and # 7 Fore Left (0.90*), my "A" and "B" Selections, respectively, were running 1 - 2.  But such was not to be, as the winner ran past them both, making Saturday a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  6 / 2 / 5 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $812.00 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/10/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

Juveniles headline Saturday's card at Del Mar, with the Grade 2 Best Pal topping the bill as the featured race.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $32k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Portal Creek (Morning Line 3-1)

B’s

# 4 Square Peggy (ML 4-1)
# 6 Swing Thoughts (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Money Inthe Stars (ML 5-1)
# 3 Be Lifted Up (ML 8-1)
# 5 Emerald Lady (ML 8-1)
# 7 Oh My Oh (ML 4-1)

Portal Creek was an open lengths winner in her last start on a fast dirt track versus comparably priced stock.  Square Peggy is another that could improve by getting off the lawn.

Swing Thoughts has won over this main track in the past, and Swing Thoughts seems to be in good form.  I decided against using Oh My Oh on my main ticket; for while Oh My Oh could move up by donning the hood and returning to one turn racing, it appears to me that Oh My Oh settles for too many minor awards.  So I'll be using Oh My Oh, along with the rest of the field, as a backup "C" Selection.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 80k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 K P Slickem (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Gallovie (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 5 Angel Alessandra (ML 10-1)

C's

# 3 Dichotomy (ML 8-1)
# 4 All Star Cast (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 6 Kalliniki (ML 8-1)
# 7 Zee Drop (ML 4-1)
# 8 Hollywood Girl (ML 3-1)

As is the norm in Southern California, the $80k price tag for this optional claimer is the sign that this contest is restricted to three year olds only.  For the record, none of these runners are eligible to be claimed from this contest.

K P Slickem took the Place at this class level last time out, against several that are returning in this field.  Gallovie (GB), one of those that finished behind K P Slickem last time out, could improve with the rail draw.  Angel Alessandra could move up with the return to California.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - The Best Pal (Grade 2) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 6 Thanks Mr. Edison (ML 6-1)

B's

# 7 Fore Left (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Wrecking Crew (ML 4-1)
# 2 Raging Whiskey (ML 12-1)
# 3 We're Still Here (ML 6-1)
# 5 Collusion Illusion (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 4 Schrodinger (ML 2-1)

As these are juveniles, there's really no telling who has matured more rapidly than the rest since their last start.  With that caveat, I'll say that Thanks Mr. Edison looks best here, though Thanks Mr. Edison may need to come from off the pace to win Saturday.  Fore Left is undefeated in two tries, making Fore Left the only runner in this field with multiple Wins.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Miss Hot Legs (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 First Screening (ML 12-1)
# 3 Smoovie (ML 8-1)
# 4 Rockin Ready (ML 3-1)
# 8 Courteous (ML 8-1)
# 9 Flower Point (ML 9-2)

C's

# 2 Magical Gray (ML 8-1)

# 6 Nomizar (ML 15-1)

# 7 Hello Bubbles (ML 5-1)

Scratch all the Also Eligibles: # 10 Andyoushallreceive (ML 6-1); # 11 Donut Girl (ML 6-1); # 12 Tiger Silk (Aus) (ML 10-1); # 13 Time for Ebby (ML 20-1)

With the scratch of Time for Ebby, none of those entering the starting gate are up for sale; so the reduced purse for those entered for a tag isn't relevant.

Miss Hot Legs took the Show at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  First Screening is trying the turf for the first time after taking the Place at this class level last time out.

Smoovie might do well with the cutback in distance.  Rockin Ready ran well two starts back despite not being able to find an opening.  Courteous ran well last Fall in her only prior start over this turf course.  Flower Point might have needed that last race.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 2 with 6 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4,6 with 1,2,5 with 6,7 with 1,3,4,5,8,9 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,7 with 2 with 6 with 5 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,4,6,7,8 with 6 with 5 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 2 with 1,2,3,5 with 5 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 2 with 6 with 2,6,7 $1.50

Total: $63.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:37 EDT / 4:37 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/3/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 7 Dunbow Road (Final Odds 3.60) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Yellow Ribbon - # 1 Beau Recall (Ire) (2.00) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Madame Vestal (16.50) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Equal Measure (4.10) - "B" Selection

Sometimes luck isn't just on your side, it's sitting in your lap and holding you tight.  Thanks in no small part to a fortuitously named friend, as well as a finish so close it would be criminal to make someone live off the difference, Saturday was a day for me to collect instead of contribute.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other six runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 2 Busy Paynter (9.20) - $1,360.50 Finish: 10th
# 4 Fashion Island (4.60) - $964.75 Finish: 3rd
# 5 Boldest Vow (17.50) - $2,192.85 Finish: 7th
# 8 Dulverton Darling (2.10*) - $626.75 Finish: 9th
# 11 Sapori Girl - $2,929.65 Finish: 4th
# 12 Coldwater (10.00) - $1,926.10 Finish: 2nd

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 1 / 10 / 6  which paid $875.15 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $793.15 on my initial $82 investment, or approximate odds of 9.67-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/3/19 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

"Life's battles don't always go to the stronger or faster man. But sooner or later the man who wins, is the man who thinks he can." - Vince Lombardi

There's a pair of Graded Stakes scheduled for Saturday at Del Mar; and while one, the Grade 2 Sorrento, has been carded too early in the day to be a part of this preview, the other, the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, has found its way among the final four events on the program, and therefore will be analyzed below.  As an interesting side note, all four legs of Saturday's sequence have been carded for distaff runners.  So with that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Second Avenue (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 7 Dunbow Road (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Avalon Ride (ML 20-1)

# 3 Virginia Hall (ML 4-1)

# 4 My S V R (ML 8-1)

# 5 Rolinga (ML 10-1)

# 6 Durga (ML 6-1)

# 8 Goddess Aphrodite (ML 7-2)

Second Avenue took a big step forward in her second career start last time out, when she donned the hood for the first time and missed victory by less than a length while taking the Show at this class level.  Dunbow Road showed some nice early foot in her debut last time out; though it is a concern that runners for Trainer Tim Yakteen typically don't show much improvement in their second career start.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A's

# 4 Vasilika (ML 7-5)

B's

# 1 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Storm the Hill (ML 5-1)

# 5 Lemoona (ML 12-1)

# 6 Valedictorian (ML 6-1)

# 9 Elysea's World (Ire) (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 2 Youngest Daughter (ML 20-1); # 7 Causeforcommotion (ML 20-1); # 8 Toinette (ML 6-1)

Vasilika, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is the clear class of this field, and a good case could be made for making her a big ticket single in this leg.  But I'm going to also include Beau Recall (Ire) in my main play; for while she was no match for Vasilika in their prior battles, Beau Recall has shown much improvement since heading east and joining the barn of Trainer Brad Cox.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 (F) - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Message (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 3 Shes All Woman (ML 12-1)

# 6 Boujie Girl (ML 5-1)

# 9 Give Me a Hint (ML 10-1)

# 10 Madame Vestal (ML 10-1)

C's

# 2 True Validity (ML 12-1)

# 4 Moreisbetter (ML 20-1)

# 5 Dancin in Paradise (ML 10-1)

# 7 Tijori (ML 6-1)

# 8 Tapitha Bonita (ML 8-1)

# 11 Rather Nosy (ML 6-1)

# 12 Dreamy Gal (ML 20-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 13 Day by Day (ML 10-1)

For those who track such things, Dreamy Gal is the only runner in this field that will be leaving the gate with the $40k price tag on her head.  Note that this means that Dreamy Gal is running for a purse of $52k, rather than the $64k purse for which the other entrants will be competing.

Message, trained by Bob Baffert, faces winners for the first time Saturday after graduating last time out; and the rail draw does her no favors, in my opinion.  But Message does look fastest here, and a repeat of that 1:16 time that she posted at this distance would almost certainly get the job done today.

Shes All Woman took the Show at this class level last time out, and Shes All Woman could benefit from the reduction in real estate.  Boujie Girl could move up with the removal of the hood and the return to one turn racing.

Give Me a Hint could improve by getting off the lawn.  Madame Vestal was a clear winner when she graduated last time out; though last time out was last October.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - (F) Md $62.5k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 12 Coldwater (ML 6-1)

B's

# 2 Busy Paynter (ML 5-1)

# 4 Fashion Island (ML 6-1)

# 5 Boldest Vow (ML 10-1)

# 6 Equal Measure (ML 9-2)

# 8 Dulverton Darling (ML 5-1)

# 11 Sapori Girl (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Zucchera (ML 15-1)

# 3 Katsaros (ML 12-1)

# 7 Calentita (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 9 Daddy's Melody (ML 15-1)

# 10 Flying Blue (ML 20-1)

Coldwater drops in for a tag after taking the Place against non-Claiming Maidens upstate last time out.  Busy Paynter drops in for a tag while trying two turns for the first time.  Fashion Island is another dropping in for a tag for the first time; and Fashion Island should improve with a return to the turf.

Boldest Vow took the Place at Santa Anita last time out.  Equal Measure has finished in the Trifecta multiple times while competing against winners; so Equal Measure certainly has the talent to win here, despite her seeming willingness to consistently settle for minor awards.

Dulverton Darling has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last two starts; perhaps Dulverton Darling will improve with the blinkers on her head and lasix in her bloodstream.  Sapori Girl could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 4 with 1 with 12 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 1,4 with 1,3,6,9,10 with 2,4,5,6,8,11,12 $70.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,8 with 4 with 1 with 12 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,6,9 with 1 with 12 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 2,4,5,7,8,11,12 with 12 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 1 with 1,3,7,9,10 $2.50

Total: $82.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:09 EDT / 5:09 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo