There's a pair of Graded Stakes scheduled for Saturday at Del Mar; and while one, the Grade 2 Sorrento, has been carded too early in the day to be a part of this preview, the other, the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, has found its way among the final four events on the program, and therefore will be analyzed below. As an interesting side note, all four legs of Saturday's sequence have been carded for distaff runners. So with that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Second Avenue (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 7 Dunbow Road (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Avalon Ride (ML 20-1)
# 3 Virginia Hall (ML 4-1)
# 4 My S V R (ML 8-1)
# 5 Rolinga (ML 10-1)
# 6 Durga (ML 6-1)
# 8 Goddess Aphrodite (ML 7-2)
Second Avenue took a big step forward in her second career start last time out, when she donned the hood for the first time and missed victory by less than a length while taking the Show at this class level. Dunbow Road showed some nice early foot in her debut last time out; though it is a concern that runners for Trainer Tim Yakteen typically don't show much improvement in their second career start. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Vasilika (ML 7-5)
B's
# 1 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Storm the Hill (ML 5-1)
# 5 Lemoona (ML 12-1)
# 6 Valedictorian (ML 6-1)
# 9 Elysea's World (Ire) (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 2 Youngest Daughter (ML 20-1); # 7 Causeforcommotion (ML 20-1); # 8 Toinette (ML 6-1)
Vasilika, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is the clear class of this field, and a good case could be made for making her a big ticket single in this leg. But I'm going to also include Beau Recall (Ire) in my main play; for while she was no match for Vasilika in their prior battles, Beau Recall has shown much improvement since heading east and joining the barn of Trainer Brad Cox. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 (F) - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Message (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 3 Shes All Woman (ML 12-1)
# 6 Boujie Girl (ML 5-1)
# 9 Give Me a Hint (ML 10-1)
# 10 Madame Vestal (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 True Validity (ML 12-1)
# 4 Moreisbetter (ML 20-1)
# 5 Dancin in Paradise (ML 10-1)
# 7 Tijori (ML 6-1)
# 8 Tapitha Bonita (ML 8-1)
# 11 Rather Nosy (ML 6-1)
# 12 Dreamy Gal (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 13 Day by Day (ML 10-1)
For those who track such things, Dreamy Gal is the only runner in this field that will be leaving the gate with the $40k price tag on her head. Note that this means that Dreamy Gal is running for a purse of $52k, rather than the $64k purse for which the other entrants will be competing.
Message, trained by Bob Baffert, faces winners for the first time Saturday after graduating last time out; and the rail draw does her no favors, in my opinion. But Message does look fastest here, and a repeat of that 1:16 time that she posted at this distance would almost certainly get the job done today.
Shes All Woman took the Show at this class level last time out, and Shes All Woman could benefit from the reduction in real estate. Boujie Girl could move up with the removal of the hood and the return to one turn racing.
Give Me a Hint could improve by getting off the lawn. Madame Vestal was a clear winner when she graduated last time out; though last time out was last October. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - (F) Md $62.5k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 12 Coldwater (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Busy Paynter (ML 5-1)
# 4 Fashion Island (ML 6-1)
# 5 Boldest Vow (ML 10-1)
# 6 Equal Measure (ML 9-2)
# 8 Dulverton Darling (ML 5-1)
# 11 Sapori Girl (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Zucchera (ML 15-1)
# 3 Katsaros (ML 12-1)
# 7 Calentita (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 9 Daddy's Melody (ML 15-1)
# 10 Flying Blue (ML 20-1)
Coldwater drops in for a tag after taking the Place against non-Claiming Maidens upstate last time out. Busy Paynter drops in for a tag while trying two turns for the first time. Fashion Island is another dropping in for a tag for the first time; and Fashion Island should improve with a return to the turf.
Boldest Vow took the Place at Santa Anita last time out. Equal Measure has finished in the Trifecta multiple times while competing against winners; so Equal Measure certainly has the talent to win here, despite her seeming willingness to consistently settle for minor awards.
Dulverton Darling has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last two starts; perhaps Dulverton Darling will improve with the blinkers on her head and lasix in her bloodstream. Sapori Girl could be the one running best late. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 4 with 1 with 12 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 1,4 with 1,3,6,9,10 with 2,4,5,6,8,11,12 $70.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,8 with 4 with 1 with 12 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,6,9 with 1 with 12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 2,4,5,7,8,11,12 with 12 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 1 with 1,3,7,9,10 $2.50
Total: $82.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:09 EDT / 5:09 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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