Race 7 - The Comely Stakes - # 2 Wedding Toast (Final Odds 0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Cigar Mile Handicap - # 9 Flat Out (6.50) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Remsen Stakes - # 4 Honor Code (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 11 Winning Touch (1.35*) - "A" Selection
Wedding Toast got us off to a good start, using the time honored strategy of running a straight line to defeat the serpentine running # 9 Toasting (32.25) by a head. It was all for naught, however, as we had no part of Flat Out's victory in The Cigar Mile. In the "Give Credit Where Credit Is Due" Department, a tip of the hat to the good people of Brisnet.com, whose Ultimate Past Performances for The Cigar Mile had Flat Out pegged as the top entrant, courtesy of their Prime Power Ratings.
We felt there was little to choose between Honor Code and # 9 Cairo Prince (1.65) and the photo finish that determined the winner justified that opinion (though we must confess to having stated a slight preference for the one that took the Place). Winning Touch's victory in the finale capped off a Pick Four that saw three out of four Post Time Favorites get the job done (for the record, Flat Out was also the only non-Post Time Favorite to win one of Saturday's Pick Six races).
So our Pick Four play nets three winners; which, as you all know, is one winner too few. Still, it would be wrong to say that we came close; for while we only missed having one of the four winners, in the race we missed, we really missed; for despite having six of the ten entrants in The Cigar Mile on our tickets, we didn't have any of the horses that made up that race's Trifecta. We therefore end up with a Net Loss on our play of $55.50.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 9 / 4 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $39.62 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 30, 2013
11/30/13 Aqueduct Late Pick Four - Preview
It’s Cigar Mile Day Saturday at The Big A in New York City, with a card featuring four Graded Stakes. Three of those four are contained in the Late Pick Four (the final four races on the card) and that’s where we’re going to focus our attention today.
RACE 7 - The Comely (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Wedding Toast (Morning Line 8-5)
C’s
# 4 My Happy Face (ML 7-2)
# 7 Sheer Drama (ML 7-1)
Wedding Toast, winner of The Belle Cherie Stakes her last time out, is a late blooming filly who has finished in the Exacta in all four of her career starts since debuting this past June. My Happy Face is a Graded Stakes winner over this main dirt track and just misses by a head (in The Frizette) and a neck (in The Test) of being a two-time Grade 1 Stakes winner.
Sheer Drama, trained by Tony Dutrow, looks like she’s ready to take a big step forward; perhaps the addition of blinkers today will give her that added push. Also note that Irad Ortiz Jr replaces the injured Johnny V in the saddle, a move that has produced more than one upset winner this year.
RACE 8 - The Cigar Mile Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Groupie Doll (ML 3-1)
# 5 Laugh Track (ML 12-1)
# 8 Goldencents (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Forty Tales (ML 10-1)
# 3 Clearly Now (ML 5-1)
# 6 Capo Bastone (ML 20-1)
The Cigar Mile features a half-million dollar purse that becomes a three-quarter of a million dollar purse for any prior Grade 1 winners and a million dollar purse for any Breeders’ Cup winners.Needless to say, the purse money bonuses have insured a championship caliber field. If all entrants run their best, this one has the potential to be a race of the year candidate.
Groupie Doll and Goldencents are the Breeders’ Cup winners here; if they both fire, it will Groupie Doll pressing Goldencents into the stretch and to the wire. Laugh Track just missed by a neck of being yet another Breeders’ Cup winner running in this one; look for him to be closer to the leaders today than he was in the BC Sprint.
Clearly Now makes a significant move up the class ladder today; but the fact that he has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure is evidence that he deserves consideration. Forty Tales and Capo Bastone are the late runners to watch out for if there’s a total pace meltdown. Worth mentioning: Forty Tales’ Beyers in his last three races (in chronological order) with today’s jockey Joel Rosario on his back: 100 / 102 / 106.
RACE 9 - The Remsen (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Honor Code (ML 9-5)
# 9 Cairo Prince (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 8 Intense Holiday (ML 8-1)
Honor Code and Cairo Prince clearly stand out from the rest of the field based upon their past achievements. If I had to pick one (and, fortunately, I don’t) I’d take Cairo Prince over Honor Code, as there doesn’t appear to be enough pace in this one for the late runner Honor Code to chase. The Todd Pletcher trained Intense Holiday warrants consideration based upon the steady improvement his races have shown since his debut in July, along with the presence today of Joel Rosario in the saddle.
RACE 10 - Clm $12.5K B - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Superiority (ML 15-1)
# 5 Luxury Appeal (ML 8-1)
# 11 Winning Touch (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 3 Space Traveler (ML 6-1)
# 6 Herbert Hall (ML 5-1)
The conditions for this race are:
1) Three year olds and upward which have never won three races; or
2) Three year olds; or
3) Three year olds and upward which have not won a race on the dirt since May 30 (six months ago)
Winning Touch has been competitive in his last two races against more expensive. Luxury Appeal and Superiority deserve consideration based upon their last out Beyer Speed Figures. Also note that Superiority in the only horse in this field with multiple victories over this Aqueduct main track.
Good to see Space Traveler making a fast recovery after being vanned off in his last start. If Space Traveler can return to the form that he displaced during the summer months, he could win this one in a romp. Herbert Hall gets off the grass for just the third dirt start of his career. Note that Trainer David Jacobson has a .30 Winning Percentage when moving his charges from turf to dirt.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $18.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 4, 7
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 2, 3, 6
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 8
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $4.50
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 3, 6
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $55.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 2:51 EST / 11:51 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - The Comely (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Wedding Toast (Morning Line 8-5)
C’s
# 4 My Happy Face (ML 7-2)
# 7 Sheer Drama (ML 7-1)
Wedding Toast, winner of The Belle Cherie Stakes her last time out, is a late blooming filly who has finished in the Exacta in all four of her career starts since debuting this past June. My Happy Face is a Graded Stakes winner over this main dirt track and just misses by a head (in The Frizette) and a neck (in The Test) of being a two-time Grade 1 Stakes winner.
Sheer Drama, trained by Tony Dutrow, looks like she’s ready to take a big step forward; perhaps the addition of blinkers today will give her that added push. Also note that Irad Ortiz Jr replaces the injured Johnny V in the saddle, a move that has produced more than one upset winner this year.
RACE 8 - The Cigar Mile Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Groupie Doll (ML 3-1)
# 5 Laugh Track (ML 12-1)
# 8 Goldencents (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Forty Tales (ML 10-1)
# 3 Clearly Now (ML 5-1)
# 6 Capo Bastone (ML 20-1)
The Cigar Mile features a half-million dollar purse that becomes a three-quarter of a million dollar purse for any prior Grade 1 winners and a million dollar purse for any Breeders’ Cup winners.Needless to say, the purse money bonuses have insured a championship caliber field. If all entrants run their best, this one has the potential to be a race of the year candidate.
Groupie Doll and Goldencents are the Breeders’ Cup winners here; if they both fire, it will Groupie Doll pressing Goldencents into the stretch and to the wire. Laugh Track just missed by a neck of being yet another Breeders’ Cup winner running in this one; look for him to be closer to the leaders today than he was in the BC Sprint.
Clearly Now makes a significant move up the class ladder today; but the fact that he has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure is evidence that he deserves consideration. Forty Tales and Capo Bastone are the late runners to watch out for if there’s a total pace meltdown. Worth mentioning: Forty Tales’ Beyers in his last three races (in chronological order) with today’s jockey Joel Rosario on his back: 100 / 102 / 106.
RACE 9 - The Remsen (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Honor Code (ML 9-5)
# 9 Cairo Prince (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 8 Intense Holiday (ML 8-1)
Honor Code and Cairo Prince clearly stand out from the rest of the field based upon their past achievements. If I had to pick one (and, fortunately, I don’t) I’d take Cairo Prince over Honor Code, as there doesn’t appear to be enough pace in this one for the late runner Honor Code to chase. The Todd Pletcher trained Intense Holiday warrants consideration based upon the steady improvement his races have shown since his debut in July, along with the presence today of Joel Rosario in the saddle.
RACE 10 - Clm $12.5K B - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Superiority (ML 15-1)
# 5 Luxury Appeal (ML 8-1)
# 11 Winning Touch (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 3 Space Traveler (ML 6-1)
# 6 Herbert Hall (ML 5-1)
The conditions for this race are:
1) Three year olds and upward which have never won three races; or
2) Three year olds; or
3) Three year olds and upward which have not won a race on the dirt since May 30 (six months ago)
Winning Touch has been competitive in his last two races against more expensive. Luxury Appeal and Superiority deserve consideration based upon their last out Beyer Speed Figures. Also note that Superiority in the only horse in this field with multiple victories over this Aqueduct main track.
Good to see Space Traveler making a fast recovery after being vanned off in his last start. If Space Traveler can return to the form that he displaced during the summer months, he could win this one in a romp. Herbert Hall gets off the grass for just the third dirt start of his career. Note that Trainer David Jacobson has a .30 Winning Percentage when moving his charges from turf to dirt.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $18.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 4, 7
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 2, 3, 6
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 8
RACE 10: 1, 5, 11
Cost: $4.50
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 4, 5, 8
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 3, 6
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $55.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 2:51 EST / 11:51 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, November 29, 2013
11/28/13 GG R6 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the four year old gelding that we've been following since he was claimed by Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo for $4,000 back in August 2012, made his twentieth start for the Trujillo barn Thanksgiving Day, in Race 6 at Golden Gate Field. The race, run at a distance of six furlongs over the synthetic main track, was a $20,000 Claiming Race for horses who had not won two races in their entire lifetime, excepting Maiden races, Claiming Races and Starter Races in which the horse competed for $16,000 or less. So while City Chapel has visited the Winners Circle four times in his career, all four of his victories were in races that fall into the exception category, thus making him eligible to compete in Thursday's contest.
City Chapel (Final Odds 8.10) broke fifth in the field of six, was still fifth entering the stretch, but made a late run and took the Show, a length and a half behind the Winner and Post Time Favorite, Tiz Point (0.70*). The third place finish was worth $2,160 in purse money, which brings City Chapel's total earning since being claimed by Trujillo to $52,015. Not too shabby for a $4,000 claim.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
City Chapel (Final Odds 8.10) broke fifth in the field of six, was still fifth entering the stretch, but made a late run and took the Show, a length and a half behind the Winner and Post Time Favorite, Tiz Point (0.70*). The third place finish was worth $2,160 in purse money, which brings City Chapel's total earning since being claimed by Trujillo to $52,015. Not too shabby for a $4,000 claim.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Happy Thanksgiving
"When asked if my cup is half-full or half-empty my only response is that I am thankful I have a cup."
- Sam Lefkowitz
“One of the very first things I figured out about life is that it’s better to be a grateful person than a grumpy one, because you have to live in the same world either way, and if you’re grateful, you have more fun.”
- Barbara Kingsolver
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
- Sam Lefkowitz
“One of the very first things I figured out about life is that it’s better to be a grateful person than a grumpy one, because you have to live in the same world either way, and if you’re grateful, you have more fun.”
- Barbara Kingsolver
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 24, 2013
11/24/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Results
Race 1 - # 6 Dunmore East (Final Odds 1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 2 - # 2 Julio's Gold (2.80*) - No Selection
Race 3 - # 4 Becky Lou (7.70) - No Selection
Race 4 - # 2 Indianapolis (3.10) - "C" Selection
Race 5 - # 7 Magic Number (4.70*) - "A" Selection
We started well. We ended well. In between we did, well, not so well.
No surprises in the curtain jerker as our two "A" selections formed the Exacta. Julio's Gold just ran everyone off their feet in Race 2, leading the pack from gate to wire despite the class leap from $12.5K N2L to open $16K. While her victory came as a surprise to us it certainly didn't shock the betting public, as they bet this filly (who was fourth choice on the Morning Line in a field of seven) down to the Post Time Favorite.
As expected, Need You Now (Ire) (0.90*) had things all her own way in the early going of Race 3. Unfortunately for us, Need You Now never got comfortable on the lead, setting frantic fractions of 23.70 and 47.00 while leading by eight lengths at the half. Needless to say, she couldn't maintain that pace, and finished out of the money.
Our single "A" in Race 4, Snuggley Bear (5.40) didn't win but made us proud, taking the Place just a length behind one of Baffert's first time starters. We ended the sequence as we started, with one of our two "A" selections winning Race 5.
As you all already know, starting well and ending well doesn't get it done; you need to hit on every note to cash on multi-race plays. We therefore end up with a Net Loss on our play of $80.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of 6 / 2 / 4 / 2 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $2,119.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 2 - # 2 Julio's Gold (2.80*) - No Selection
Race 3 - # 4 Becky Lou (7.70) - No Selection
Race 4 - # 2 Indianapolis (3.10) - "C" Selection
Race 5 - # 7 Magic Number (4.70*) - "A" Selection
We started well. We ended well. In between we did, well, not so well.
No surprises in the curtain jerker as our two "A" selections formed the Exacta. Julio's Gold just ran everyone off their feet in Race 2, leading the pack from gate to wire despite the class leap from $12.5K N2L to open $16K. While her victory came as a surprise to us it certainly didn't shock the betting public, as they bet this filly (who was fourth choice on the Morning Line in a field of seven) down to the Post Time Favorite.
As expected, Need You Now (Ire) (0.90*) had things all her own way in the early going of Race 3. Unfortunately for us, Need You Now never got comfortable on the lead, setting frantic fractions of 23.70 and 47.00 while leading by eight lengths at the half. Needless to say, she couldn't maintain that pace, and finished out of the money.
Our single "A" in Race 4, Snuggley Bear (5.40) didn't win but made us proud, taking the Place just a length behind one of Baffert's first time starters. We ended the sequence as we started, with one of our two "A" selections winning Race 5.
As you all already know, starting well and ending well doesn't get it done; you need to hit on every note to cash on multi-race plays. We therefore end up with a Net Loss on our play of $80.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of 6 / 2 / 4 / 2 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $2,119.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/24/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Preview
A cold day throughout most of the United States today. Aqueduct decided to cancel its card due to high winds, while Zia Park in New Mexico had its weekend of racing wiped out by snow (look for Zia Park to run their big races scheduled for today on Wednesday, Thanksgiving Eve). Meanwhile, SoCal is (relatively) warm and dry; so we turn our attention there and take a stab at today's Pick Five.
RACE 1 - Clm $10K N1Y - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Macias (Morning Line 8-5)
# 6 Dunmore East (ML 7-5)
C’s
# 2 Da Ruler (ML 4-1)
Macias and Dunmore East are both making a significant class drop from their last respective races, going from open claimers to compete against horses that have yet to win in 2013. The speed figures for these two put them significantly ahead of the rest of the field; however, as neither has ever finished in the money at Hollywood Park, I thought it prudent to slot Da Ruler in as a contingency pick.
RACE 2 - (F) Clm $16K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Catch Lorraine (ML 6-1)
# 5 Rossi Reserve (ML 7-2)
# 6 No Tricks for Jack (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 7 Addendum (ML 5-2)
Catch Lorraine has been showing steady improvement in her comeback, and will no doubt appreciate the class relief. Rossi Reserve defeated slightly cheaper her last time out. Rossi Reserve is also the only filly in this field with multiple wins over the Hollywood Park main track. Today will be Rossi Reserve’s first start without an apprentice jockey on her back since August 2. No Tricks for Jack has twice won at this level in her last six races. Addendum’s recent form is acceptable if you toss out her last race which was on the turf; but the fact that she is just one-for-ten on synthetic surfaces, and oh-for-six for her career at Hollywood Park, downgrades her to “C” contender status in my eyes.
RACE 3 - (F) Alw C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Need You Now (Ire) (ML 7-5)
C’s
# 1 Judy In Disguise (GB) (ML 2-1)
This is an Allowance Race for three year old fillies which have never won a Graded Stakes; so this is a stakes-caliber event. Need You Now should enjoy a large enough pace advantage to have things all her own way on the front end; I expect her to lead this small field around the track, going gate to wire. Judy In Disguise is (in my opinion) the only horse in this field that can compete with Need You Now on a class level; but Judy In Disguise gets downgraded to “C” status as she would much rather sprint than cover today’s distance (and yes, I know Judy In Disguise does well charging down the hill at Santa Anita; but as you can see from her form that ability has yet to carry over when she has to run a flat mile).
RACE 4 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Snuggley Bear (ML 9-2)
C’s
Everyone else
This is anybody’s race. Six of the nine entrants are first time starters; two of which (# 2 Indianapolis (ML 5-2) and # 4 Icy Ride (ML 5-1)) are going for Trainer Bob Baffert, who wins about a quarter of the time that he sends out a first time starter. Two of the other first time starters (# 6 Ian Street (ML 8-1) and # 9 Frosted Boss (ML 8-1)) are sired by Street Boss (by Street Cry (Ire)), whose descendants win at a 20% clip when making their debuts.
I decided to slot Snuggley Bear into the single “A” slot primarily to keep the cost of this play reasonable. But I also like Snuggley Bear because horses that have taken the Place their last time out against MSW company tend to outperform first time starters. I also like that, of the three experienced runners in this field, Snuggley Bear is the only one with a Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance above 400. The presence of Rafael Bejarano on Snuggley Bear’s back today adds to the appeal.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $10K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Swiss Bliss (ML 2-1)
# 7 Magic Number (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 3 Lil Cheyenne (ML 6-1)
# 6 Wink and Wish (ML 5-1)
# 8 Jeanne Marini (ML 6-1)
Swiss Bliss has taken the Place and Show often enough to lead one to believe that she’d rather not lead the pack home. However, this field is such that she may find herself crossing the wire first simply by default. Magic Number goes up against winners for the first time today; but her one career win did come in her one career race over this main track, along with being against older than these.
Wink and Wish could be the speed of the speed. Both of her career Wins have been on a synthetic surface at today’s distance. Jeanne Marini’s bullet work last week suggests that she’ll be ready to go today after a two month freshening. Lil Cheyenne could be sitting in a good spot if the front runners blow the pace up.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 1: 2
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $3.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 7
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $2.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 1
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $6.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $48.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 3, 6, 8
Cost: $9.00
TOTAL COST: $80.00
Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 1 - Clm $10K N1Y - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Macias (Morning Line 8-5)
# 6 Dunmore East (ML 7-5)
C’s
# 2 Da Ruler (ML 4-1)
Macias and Dunmore East are both making a significant class drop from their last respective races, going from open claimers to compete against horses that have yet to win in 2013. The speed figures for these two put them significantly ahead of the rest of the field; however, as neither has ever finished in the money at Hollywood Park, I thought it prudent to slot Da Ruler in as a contingency pick.
RACE 2 - (F) Clm $16K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Catch Lorraine (ML 6-1)
# 5 Rossi Reserve (ML 7-2)
# 6 No Tricks for Jack (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 7 Addendum (ML 5-2)
Catch Lorraine has been showing steady improvement in her comeback, and will no doubt appreciate the class relief. Rossi Reserve defeated slightly cheaper her last time out. Rossi Reserve is also the only filly in this field with multiple wins over the Hollywood Park main track. Today will be Rossi Reserve’s first start without an apprentice jockey on her back since August 2. No Tricks for Jack has twice won at this level in her last six races. Addendum’s recent form is acceptable if you toss out her last race which was on the turf; but the fact that she is just one-for-ten on synthetic surfaces, and oh-for-six for her career at Hollywood Park, downgrades her to “C” contender status in my eyes.
RACE 3 - (F) Alw C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Need You Now (Ire) (ML 7-5)
C’s
# 1 Judy In Disguise (GB) (ML 2-1)
This is an Allowance Race for three year old fillies which have never won a Graded Stakes; so this is a stakes-caliber event. Need You Now should enjoy a large enough pace advantage to have things all her own way on the front end; I expect her to lead this small field around the track, going gate to wire. Judy In Disguise is (in my opinion) the only horse in this field that can compete with Need You Now on a class level; but Judy In Disguise gets downgraded to “C” status as she would much rather sprint than cover today’s distance (and yes, I know Judy In Disguise does well charging down the hill at Santa Anita; but as you can see from her form that ability has yet to carry over when she has to run a flat mile).
RACE 4 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Snuggley Bear (ML 9-2)
C’s
Everyone else
This is anybody’s race. Six of the nine entrants are first time starters; two of which (# 2 Indianapolis (ML 5-2) and # 4 Icy Ride (ML 5-1)) are going for Trainer Bob Baffert, who wins about a quarter of the time that he sends out a first time starter. Two of the other first time starters (# 6 Ian Street (ML 8-1) and # 9 Frosted Boss (ML 8-1)) are sired by Street Boss (by Street Cry (Ire)), whose descendants win at a 20% clip when making their debuts.
I decided to slot Snuggley Bear into the single “A” slot primarily to keep the cost of this play reasonable. But I also like Snuggley Bear because horses that have taken the Place their last time out against MSW company tend to outperform first time starters. I also like that, of the three experienced runners in this field, Snuggley Bear is the only one with a Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance above 400. The presence of Rafael Bejarano on Snuggley Bear’s back today adds to the appeal.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $10K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Swiss Bliss (ML 2-1)
# 7 Magic Number (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 3 Lil Cheyenne (ML 6-1)
# 6 Wink and Wish (ML 5-1)
# 8 Jeanne Marini (ML 6-1)
Swiss Bliss has taken the Place and Show often enough to lead one to believe that she’d rather not lead the pack home. However, this field is such that she may find herself crossing the wire first simply by default. Magic Number goes up against winners for the first time today; but her one career win did come in her one career race over this main track, along with being against older than these.
Wink and Wish could be the speed of the speed. Both of her career Wins have been on a synthetic surface at today’s distance. Jeanne Marini’s bullet work last week suggests that she’ll be ready to go today after a two month freshening. Lil Cheyenne could be sitting in a good spot if the front runners blow the pace up.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 1: 2
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $3.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 7
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $2.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 1
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $6.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $48.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 3, 6, 8
Cost: $9.00
TOTAL COST: $80.00
Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, November 22, 2013
11/21/13 BHP R3 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
This past Thursday Trainer Bruce Jackson intended to have Paralyzing Eyes race on some California grass, moving up the class ladder to compete against non-claiming maidens. It would have been the four year old filly's first start on turf since her second career start back in July of 2012.
However, as sometimes happens with the best laid plans of mice and horsemen, such was not to be; as the rains came to Southern California, washing Race 3 at Hollywood Park off the turf and onto the synthetic main track. And since she has been somewhat less than competitive against cheaper stock when running on the main track (as we've seen as we've been following her career) it came as a surprise to virtually no one that Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 53.30) finished well out of the money, a comfortable twenty-five and a half lengths behind the winner, Tiz Zoe Cee (2.90).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
However, as sometimes happens with the best laid plans of mice and horsemen, such was not to be; as the rains came to Southern California, washing Race 3 at Hollywood Park off the turf and onto the synthetic main track. And since she has been somewhat less than competitive against cheaper stock when running on the main track (as we've seen as we've been following her career) it came as a surprise to virtually no one that Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 53.30) finished well out of the money, a comfortable twenty-five and a half lengths behind the winner, Tiz Zoe Cee (2.90).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 17, 2013
11/17/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Results
Race 1 - # 4 No Contingency (Final Odds 8.90) - No Selection
Race 2 - # 3 Tama County (4.70) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - The Cat's Cradle Handicap $100K - # 1 Warren's Veneda (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 6 Lucky Views (4.10) - No Selection
Race 5 - # 4 Holy Candy (2.30*) - "A" Selection
I had liked No Contingency's steadily rising Beyers and the drop in class; but he was not on our tickets because I did not like his failure to finish in the money in any of his three prior tries on synthetic surfaces. Tama County again came from out of nowhere to win, in a manner that I have not seen since Forego retired. Jockey Joe Talamo solved the rail problem by swinging Warren's Veneda off the rail into the three path to take the lead in the stretch and hold on for the victory.
I didn't think much of Lucky Views, going as he was for a trainer (Michael Machowsky) with just one visit to the Winner's Circle the last twenty-nine times that he sent out a first time starter. Lucky Views is also out of a sire (Lucky Pulpit) whose progeny have just a .10 Winning Percentage in their debuts; a stat that does not inspire confidence. So congrats to those who saw something in this two year old gelding that I did not and slotted him in the top spot on their tickets.
I wrote in the preview that both Blu Jon and Admission still have to prove that they have returned to the form that they displayed in the Spring of 2012. Well they sure didn't prove that today, as Admission (3.80) beat only one horse to the wire; that one being Blu Jon (3.80).
All things considered this was not one of our better showings, as we could only get three "A's" home, while having no part of the winner in the other two legs. We therefore end up with a Net Loss on our play of $50.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of 4 / 3 / 1 / 6 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $2,745.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of 4 / 3 / 1 / 6 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $2,745.00 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/17/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Preview
Taking a stab at Sunday's Pick Five @ Hollywood Park; and, I must confess, the sequence was more challenging than I thought it was going to be, considering both the race conditions and field sizes. On the positive side, I think I found a few vulnerable favorites; on the negative side, races with vulnerable favorites tend to be wide open, if not chaotic.
Ultimately I decided to go with a strategy that is thin on A's but wide on C's. Such a strategy gives us an opportunity to be well rewarded if we are correct in our opinions, or even just a little bit wrong. Conversely, such a strategy also gives us the opportunity to be really screwed if our opinions are even just a little bit more than a little bit wrong.
So with all the that, he's how I see the first five races today at Hollywood Park:
RACE 1 - Clm $40K - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 He's Not Bluffin (Morning Line 9-2)
C's
# 1 Kafister (ML 3-1)
# 3 One Firm Cat (ML 5-2)
# 5 Native Treasure (ML 3-1)
# 6 Tahoe Flash (ML 3-1)
He's Not Bluffin is the invader from the North, coming from Emerald Downs where he won half his contests, including a restricted stakes his last time out. I like the trainer stats that conditioner Vann Belvoir brings to the table, and I like that He's Not Bluffin prefers to sit off the pace, as this one seems to have a lot of early speed. Chantal Sutherland Kruse will be on his back today, and hopefully she'll have him coming late and will get him up in time.
RACE 2 - Clm $16K N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 3 Tama County (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Blue Collar Boy (ML 5-2)
# 5 Bobby Flay (ML 7-2)
# 8 As Good as Gold (ML 4-1)
Blue Collar Boy and As Good as Gold should be battling on the front end early. As there is other early speed here there should be an honest pace; though there is the possibility that if one of those two falter, the other could steal it. Tama County is facing winners for the first time; but the job he did closing his last two races on dirt should give him a pace edge on today's cushion surface.
RACE 3 - [S] (F) The Cat's Cradle Handicap $100K - Seven and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Warren's Veneda (ML 2-1)
# 3 Ciao Bella Luna (ML 5-2)
# 5 Sister Kate (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Curvy Cat (ML 3-1)
# 4 Qiaona (ML 3-1)
Warren's Veneda has done well on both real and fake dirt, and even earned a victory her one time over this main track. But she's drawn the rail, and that hasn't been a good place to be so far in sprints in this meet. Ciao Bella Luna is a Graded Stakes winner on synthetics, while Sister Kate could get loose on the lead and steal this one on the front end. This one really looks like it could be anybody's race.
RACE 4 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Ron's Boy (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Unusual Fleet (ML 4-1)
# 5 Super Reagan (ML 4-1)
# 7 Fourth Generation (ML 8-1)
# 8 This Cat's Awesome (ML 3-1)
Ron's Boy is one of three experienced runners in this field; the other five, including our four C's, are all first time starters. Ron's Boy flashed some early speed in his debut against open company, and any reasonable improvement off that effort will give him a Beyer Speed Figure right around par for this class.
RACE 5 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Holy Candy (ML 5-2)
# 6 Northern Iowa (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Appealing Tale (ML 5-1)
# 2 Blu Jon (ML 4-1)
# 5 Admission (ML 5-1)
# 7 Curly Top (ML 4-1)
Holy Candy would be the lone "A" here if not for the oh-for-five record on synthetics. Northern Iowa has shown the ability to be competitive at this level. Both Blu Jon and Admission still have to prove that they have returned to the form that they displayed in the Spring of 2012. Appealing Tale has tactical speed but may not have enough pace to chase.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for $1.50:
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $9.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 1: 1, 3, 5, 6
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 1, 5, 8
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $9.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 2, 4
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $2.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 1, 5, 7, 8
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 1, 2, 5, 7
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $50.00
Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Ultimately I decided to go with a strategy that is thin on A's but wide on C's. Such a strategy gives us an opportunity to be well rewarded if we are correct in our opinions, or even just a little bit wrong. Conversely, such a strategy also gives us the opportunity to be really screwed if our opinions are even just a little bit more than a little bit wrong.
So with all the that, he's how I see the first five races today at Hollywood Park:
RACE 1 - Clm $40K - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 He's Not Bluffin (Morning Line 9-2)
C's
# 1 Kafister (ML 3-1)
# 3 One Firm Cat (ML 5-2)
# 5 Native Treasure (ML 3-1)
# 6 Tahoe Flash (ML 3-1)
He's Not Bluffin is the invader from the North, coming from Emerald Downs where he won half his contests, including a restricted stakes his last time out. I like the trainer stats that conditioner Vann Belvoir brings to the table, and I like that He's Not Bluffin prefers to sit off the pace, as this one seems to have a lot of early speed. Chantal Sutherland Kruse will be on his back today, and hopefully she'll have him coming late and will get him up in time.
RACE 2 - Clm $16K N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 3 Tama County (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Blue Collar Boy (ML 5-2)
# 5 Bobby Flay (ML 7-2)
# 8 As Good as Gold (ML 4-1)
Blue Collar Boy and As Good as Gold should be battling on the front end early. As there is other early speed here there should be an honest pace; though there is the possibility that if one of those two falter, the other could steal it. Tama County is facing winners for the first time; but the job he did closing his last two races on dirt should give him a pace edge on today's cushion surface.
RACE 3 - [S] (F) The Cat's Cradle Handicap $100K - Seven and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Warren's Veneda (ML 2-1)
# 3 Ciao Bella Luna (ML 5-2)
# 5 Sister Kate (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Curvy Cat (ML 3-1)
# 4 Qiaona (ML 3-1)
Warren's Veneda has done well on both real and fake dirt, and even earned a victory her one time over this main track. But she's drawn the rail, and that hasn't been a good place to be so far in sprints in this meet. Ciao Bella Luna is a Graded Stakes winner on synthetics, while Sister Kate could get loose on the lead and steal this one on the front end. This one really looks like it could be anybody's race.
RACE 4 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Ron's Boy (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Unusual Fleet (ML 4-1)
# 5 Super Reagan (ML 4-1)
# 7 Fourth Generation (ML 8-1)
# 8 This Cat's Awesome (ML 3-1)
Ron's Boy is one of three experienced runners in this field; the other five, including our four C's, are all first time starters. Ron's Boy flashed some early speed in his debut against open company, and any reasonable improvement off that effort will give him a Beyer Speed Figure right around par for this class.
RACE 5 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Holy Candy (ML 5-2)
# 6 Northern Iowa (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Appealing Tale (ML 5-1)
# 2 Blu Jon (ML 4-1)
# 5 Admission (ML 5-1)
# 7 Curly Top (ML 4-1)
Holy Candy would be the lone "A" here if not for the oh-for-five record on synthetics. Northern Iowa has shown the ability to be competitive at this level. Both Blu Jon and Admission still have to prove that they have returned to the form that they displayed in the Spring of 2012. Appealing Tale has tactical speed but may not have enough pace to chase.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for $1.50:
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $9.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 1: 1, 3, 5, 6
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 1, 5, 8
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $9.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 2, 4
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $2.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 1, 5, 7, 8
RACE 5: 4, 6
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 7
RACE 2: 3
RACE 3: 1, 3, 5
RACE 4: 4
RACE 5: 1, 2, 5, 7
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $50.00
Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 16, 2013
Free Brisnet Past Performances
Since many ADW's now offer free past performances to their customers, I'm sure the following will be of little use to many of you. However, I wanted to be sure that all readers were aware that free Brisnet Past Performances for many thoroughbred races are available online. There are certain owners, trainers, and farms that make Brisnet Past Performances available for any race in which they either have an entry, or there is an entry that was sired by one of their stallions. So, for example, if you were to click the link for Doug O'Neill below, you would be taken to a page from where you can download free Brisnet Past Performances for any race containing an entrant trained by O'Neill.
I should mention here, in terms of full disclosure, that I personally primarily use Past Performances from the Daily Racing Form. However, I have on occasion used Brisnet Past Performances, and my own personal opinion is that they are in no way inferior to those offered by DRF. The Brisnet PP's do not contain Beyer Speed Figures, as those are proprietary to DRF; however, Brisnet does calculate their own speed figures, which are probably as good as Beyer's. Likewise with breeding: Tomlinson Ratings are proprietary to DRF, while Brisnet offers their own ratings for turf, etc. to guide you in your selections. A full explanation of how Brisnet PP's work is available here.
For those who have not used them before, I would suggest giving the Brisnet PP's a try to see if they're suitable to your handicapping methods. It's possible that you may find that they work well for you on their own, or perhaps even in conjuncture with the Daily Racing Form's version. Finally, if you wish to purchase Brisnet Past Performances you can do so by going to the Brisnet.com home page and clicking the "PPS" button (which should take you to this page).
So with all that, here are the links to the free PP's:
2019 EDIT - I've received multiple reports that some of the links below are not working. I've done my best to update them; but I'm still getting notices that some are not functioning as they should. Since my updates seem to not be doing the trick, should you come across a non-working link, I would advise that you go to Horse Racing Nation, because it seems their links are always doing fine. In fact, their page is doing so well that I think that I'm going to create a new post just re-directing anyone looking for free Past Performances to head on over to HorseRacingNation.com. I'll still leave the links below in place for those who have just grown used to coming here; but there's little point in both Horse Racing Nation and I performing an identical service.
Owner Adena Springs
The Sires of Ballena Vista Farm - All together now on one page, including Benchmark, Calimonco, Dixie Chatter, Eddington, and Tribal Rule
Trainer Bob Baffert
Trainer Dan Blacker
Trainer Mark Casse
Trainer Wayne Catalano
Trainer Gary Contessa
Trainer Brad Cox
Darley Stallions - Includes Animal Kingdom, Any Given Saturday, Bernardini, Cherokee Run, Chief Seattle, Consolidator, Desert Party, Discreet Cat, E Dubai, Elusive Quality, Emcee, Girolamo, Hard Spun, Henny Hughes, Holy Bull, Medaglia D'oro, Midshipman, Offlee Wild, Quiet American, Regal Ransom, Rockport Harbor, Street Boss, Street Cry (IRE), and Street Sense, among others.
Trainer Catherine Day Phillips
Elite Thoroughbreds Stallions - Includes Buzzy's Gold, Don't Get Mad, E Dubai, Good And Tough, Grand Marshall, Musket Man, My Pal Charlie, Neko Bay, Sun King, Tenpins, and Teton Forest, among others.
Owner Godolphin
Trainer Mark Hennig
Owner Hronis Racing
Trainer Eddie Kenneally
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin
Trainer H Graham Motion
Trainer Doug O'Neill
Trainer Todd Pletcher
Trainer Linda Rice
Trainer Dale Romans
Trainer John Sadler
Trainer Joan Scott
Sires of Spendthrift Farms - Includes Archarcharch, Can The Man, Court Vision, Cross Traffic, Danza, Dominus, Don't Get Mad, Dublin, Flashpoint, Flat Out, Freedom Child, Goldencents, Into Mischief, Itsmyluckyday, Line Of David, Malibu Moon, Medal Count, My Pal Charlie, Normandy Invasion, Notional, Paddy O'prado, Palace, Race Day, Shakin It Up, Temple City, Tiz Wonderful, Tizway, Victor's Cry, Warrior's Reward, Wicked Strong, and Wilburn, among others. Also includes entrants owned by B Wayne Hughes
Owner Starlight Stables
Sires of Winstar Farm - Includes Bluegrass Cat, Bodemeister, Carpe Diem, Colonel John, Commissioner, Congrats, Constitution, Cowtown Cat, Daredevil, Distorted Humor, Drosselmeyer, Fed Biz, Harlan's Holiday, Hold Me Back, Kodiak Kowboy, Maimonides, More Than Ready, Overanalyze, Paynter, Pioneerof The Nile, Pure Prize, Revolutionary, Sharp Humor, Sidney's Candy, Speightstown, Spring At Last, Street Hero, Summer Bird, Super Saver, Tiznow, U S Ranger, and Wildcat Heir, among others
Owner Zayat Stables
Please let me know if any of the above links are no longer working. Also please me let know if you use or have used Brisnet Past Performances (either free from the above links, free from your ADW, or purchased from Brisnet.com) and whether or not you preferred them to the Daily Racing Form PP's.
Good luck!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
I should mention here, in terms of full disclosure, that I personally primarily use Past Performances from the Daily Racing Form. However, I have on occasion used Brisnet Past Performances, and my own personal opinion is that they are in no way inferior to those offered by DRF. The Brisnet PP's do not contain Beyer Speed Figures, as those are proprietary to DRF; however, Brisnet does calculate their own speed figures, which are probably as good as Beyer's. Likewise with breeding: Tomlinson Ratings are proprietary to DRF, while Brisnet offers their own ratings for turf, etc. to guide you in your selections. A full explanation of how Brisnet PP's work is available here.
For those who have not used them before, I would suggest giving the Brisnet PP's a try to see if they're suitable to your handicapping methods. It's possible that you may find that they work well for you on their own, or perhaps even in conjuncture with the Daily Racing Form's version. Finally, if you wish to purchase Brisnet Past Performances you can do so by going to the Brisnet.com home page and clicking the "PPS" button (which should take you to this page).
So with all that, here are the links to the free PP's:
2019 EDIT - I've received multiple reports that some of the links below are not working. I've done my best to update them; but I'm still getting notices that some are not functioning as they should. Since my updates seem to not be doing the trick, should you come across a non-working link, I would advise that you go to Horse Racing Nation, because it seems their links are always doing fine. In fact, their page is doing so well that I think that I'm going to create a new post just re-directing anyone looking for free Past Performances to head on over to HorseRacingNation.com. I'll still leave the links below in place for those who have just grown used to coming here; but there's little point in both Horse Racing Nation and I performing an identical service.
Owner Adena Springs
The Sires of Ballena Vista Farm - All together now on one page, including Benchmark, Calimonco, Dixie Chatter, Eddington, and Tribal Rule
Trainer Bob Baffert
Trainer Dan Blacker
Trainer Mark Casse
Trainer Wayne Catalano
Trainer Gary Contessa
Trainer Brad Cox
Darley Stallions - Includes Animal Kingdom, Any Given Saturday, Bernardini, Cherokee Run, Chief Seattle, Consolidator, Desert Party, Discreet Cat, E Dubai, Elusive Quality, Emcee, Girolamo, Hard Spun, Henny Hughes, Holy Bull, Medaglia D'oro, Midshipman, Offlee Wild, Quiet American, Regal Ransom, Rockport Harbor, Street Boss, Street Cry (IRE), and Street Sense, among others.
Trainer Catherine Day Phillips
Elite Thoroughbreds Stallions - Includes Buzzy's Gold, Don't Get Mad, E Dubai, Good And Tough, Grand Marshall, Musket Man, My Pal Charlie, Neko Bay, Sun King, Tenpins, and Teton Forest, among others.
Owner Godolphin
Trainer Mark Hennig
Owner Hronis Racing
Trainer Eddie Kenneally
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin
Trainer H Graham Motion
Trainer Doug O'Neill
Trainer Todd Pletcher
Trainer Linda Rice
Trainer Dale Romans
Trainer John Sadler
Trainer Joan Scott
Sires of Spendthrift Farms - Includes Archarcharch, Can The Man, Court Vision, Cross Traffic, Danza, Dominus, Don't Get Mad, Dublin, Flashpoint, Flat Out, Freedom Child, Goldencents, Into Mischief, Itsmyluckyday, Line Of David, Malibu Moon, Medal Count, My Pal Charlie, Normandy Invasion, Notional, Paddy O'prado, Palace, Race Day, Shakin It Up, Temple City, Tiz Wonderful, Tizway, Victor's Cry, Warrior's Reward, Wicked Strong, and Wilburn, among others. Also includes entrants owned by B Wayne Hughes
Owner Starlight Stables
Sires of Winstar Farm - Includes Bluegrass Cat, Bodemeister, Carpe Diem, Colonel John, Commissioner, Congrats, Constitution, Cowtown Cat, Daredevil, Distorted Humor, Drosselmeyer, Fed Biz, Harlan's Holiday, Hold Me Back, Kodiak Kowboy, Maimonides, More Than Ready, Overanalyze, Paynter, Pioneerof The Nile, Pure Prize, Revolutionary, Sharp Humor, Sidney's Candy, Speightstown, Spring At Last, Street Hero, Summer Bird, Super Saver, Tiznow, U S Ranger, and Wildcat Heir, among others
Owner Zayat Stables
Please let me know if any of the above links are no longer working. Also please me let know if you use or have used Brisnet Past Performances (either free from the above links, free from your ADW, or purchased from Brisnet.com) and whether or not you preferred them to the Daily Racing Form PP's.
Good luck!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 10, 2013
11/10/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Results
Race 1 - # 7 Rossi Reserve (Final Odds 4.30) - "C" Selection
Race 2 - # 4 Echo Zulu (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - The Hollywood Prevue Stakes - # 1 Shared Belief (1.50) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 3 Ricspretentiousgal (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 5 Anita Marie (3.40) - "C" Selection
Normally when we hit on all legs but one on one or more of our tickets we bemoan our bad fortune; but the fact is that today we had a lot of good fortune that allowed us to still be alive going into the last leg of the sequence. We really weren't that fond of Rossi Reserve, and nearly left her totally off the ticket (incidentally, congrats to Trainer Javier Sierra for breaking a losing streak on synthetic surfaces that had extended beyond twenty-five contests); we won an extremely tight photo in Race 2 where the only point in the entire race that Echo Zulu was ahead was at the wire; and we won another tight photo with Ricspretentiousgal in Race 4. So we truly have nothing to complain about today as far as luck goes, as we got more action for our money than we actually deserved. As far as the bottom line goes, the Net Loss on our play is $72.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, the fifty cent Will Pays for the two horses we were alive to in the final leg were $288.65 for # 4 Tribal Peace (3.20) and $352.10 for # 8 Tribal Dress (3.10*). As for the actual payout, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of 7 / 4 / 1 / 3 / 5 were rewarded with a return of $339.75 for their half dollar wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 2 - # 4 Echo Zulu (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - The Hollywood Prevue Stakes - # 1 Shared Belief (1.50) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 3 Ricspretentiousgal (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - # 5 Anita Marie (3.40) - "C" Selection
Normally when we hit on all legs but one on one or more of our tickets we bemoan our bad fortune; but the fact is that today we had a lot of good fortune that allowed us to still be alive going into the last leg of the sequence. We really weren't that fond of Rossi Reserve, and nearly left her totally off the ticket (incidentally, congrats to Trainer Javier Sierra for breaking a losing streak on synthetic surfaces that had extended beyond twenty-five contests); we won an extremely tight photo in Race 2 where the only point in the entire race that Echo Zulu was ahead was at the wire; and we won another tight photo with Ricspretentiousgal in Race 4. So we truly have nothing to complain about today as far as luck goes, as we got more action for our money than we actually deserved. As far as the bottom line goes, the Net Loss on our play is $72.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, the fifty cent Will Pays for the two horses we were alive to in the final leg were $288.65 for # 4 Tribal Peace (3.20) and $352.10 for # 8 Tribal Dress (3.10*). As for the actual payout, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of 7 / 4 / 1 / 3 / 5 were rewarded with a return of $339.75 for their half dollar wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/10/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - The Play
I decided not to single Tribal Dress in Race 5, but I still added a couple more "C" contenders, just in case. Here's how our Contenders Lists looks for Sunday's Pick Five at Hollywood Park:
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $12.5K - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Inner Groove (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Sugar Spice (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Yuma Thurman (ML 10-1)
# 7 Rossi Reserve (ML 7-2)
RACE 2 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Echo Zulu (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Cloud Clearing (ML 4-1)
# 3 Taken by Surprise (ML 7-2)
# 7 Heyyoucan (ML 5-2)
RACE 3 - The Hollywood Prevue Stakes (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Papa Turf (ML 3-1)
# 2 Shared Belief (ML 8-5)
# 4 Kobe’s Back (ML 7-5)
C's
None
RACE 4 - (F) Clm $50K - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 3 Ricspretentiousgal (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 English Crossing (ML 4-1)
# 2 Fantastic Mizz (ML 3-1)
# 4 Meltarib (ML 3-1)
# 5 High Jinks (Brz) (ML 8-1)
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $16K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Tribal Peace (ML 3-1)
# 8 Tribal Dress (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Bas (ML 15-1)
# 5 Anita Marie (ML 7-2)
# 9 Firendesire (ML 8-1)
# 10 She's a Go Girl (ML 8-1)
And here's how it shakes out in tickets:
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 1: 2, 3
RACE 2: 4
RACE 3: 1, 2, 4
RACE 4: 3
RACE 5: 4, 8
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 1: 4, 7
RACE 2: 4
RACE 3: 1, 2, 4
RACE 4: 3
RACE 5: 4, 8
Cost: $6.00
RACE 1: 2, 3
RACE 2: 2, 3, 7
RACE 3: 1, 2, 4
RACE 4: 3
RACE 5: 4, 8
Cost: $18.00
RACE 1: 2, 3
RACE 2: 4
RACE 3: 1, 2, 4
RACE 4: 1, 2, 4, 5
RACE 5: 4, 8
Cost: $24.00
RACE 1: 2, 3
RACE 2: 4
RACE 3: 1, 2, 4
RACE 4: 3
RACE 5: 1, 5, 9, 10
Cost: $12.00
TOTAL COST: $72.00
Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $12.5K - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Inner Groove (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Sugar Spice (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Yuma Thurman (ML 10-1)
# 7 Rossi Reserve (ML 7-2)
RACE 2 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Echo Zulu (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Cloud Clearing (ML 4-1)
# 3 Taken by Surprise (ML 7-2)
# 7 Heyyoucan (ML 5-2)
RACE 3 - The Hollywood Prevue Stakes (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Papa Turf (ML 3-1)
# 2 Shared Belief (ML 8-5)
# 4 Kobe’s Back (ML 7-5)
C's
None
RACE 4 - (F) Clm $50K - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 3 Ricspretentiousgal (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 English Crossing (ML 4-1)
# 2 Fantastic Mizz (ML 3-1)
# 4 Meltarib (ML 3-1)
# 5 High Jinks (Brz) (ML 8-1)
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $16K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Tribal Peace (ML 3-1)
# 8 Tribal Dress (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Bas (ML 15-1)
# 5 Anita Marie (ML 7-2)
# 9 Firendesire (ML 8-1)
# 10 She's a Go Girl (ML 8-1)
And here's how it shakes out in tickets:
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 1: 2, 3
RACE 2: 4
RACE 3: 1, 2, 4
RACE 4: 3
RACE 5: 4, 8
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 1: 4, 7
RACE 2: 4
RACE 3: 1, 2, 4
RACE 4: 3
RACE 5: 4, 8
Cost: $6.00
RACE 1: 2, 3
RACE 2: 2, 3, 7
RACE 3: 1, 2, 4
RACE 4: 3
RACE 5: 4, 8
Cost: $18.00
RACE 1: 2, 3
RACE 2: 4
RACE 3: 1, 2, 4
RACE 4: 1, 2, 4, 5
RACE 5: 4, 8
Cost: $24.00
RACE 1: 2, 3
RACE 2: 4
RACE 3: 1, 2, 4
RACE 4: 3
RACE 5: 1, 5, 9, 10
Cost: $12.00
TOTAL COST: $72.00
Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/10/13 Hollywood Park Pick Five - Preview
While I liked the look of the card at Gulfstream Park Saturday, I didn't like the look of the weather; I figure there'll be time enough to deal with the South Florida rains. Having not seen anything I liked on Saturday's card at Hollywood Park, I decided to focus my efforts on Sunday's Pick Five in SoCal.
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $12.5K - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
Contenders:
# 2 Inner Groove (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Sugar Spice (ML 3-1)
# 4 Yuma Thurman (ML 10-1)
# 7 Rossi Reserve (ML 7-2)
Sugar Spice projects to be the quickest out of the gate in this field. Sugar Spice hit a hot streak after first donning blinkers, winning three out of four, with the only setback coming on the wet dirt at Santa Anita. She tried a first level allowance two starts back and was outclassed, though she was still able to make a clear lead at the start. Sugar Spice was back at today’s level in her last start, where she took the Place as the Post Time Favorite.
Sugar Spice is definitely an “A”; Inner Groove, taking a big class drop, is probably an “A” as well. Tempted to drop Rossi Reserve from the contenders list, as conditioner Javier Sierra does not often get his picture taken after contests. On the other hand, Rossi Reserve just missed her last two times out at this approximate class level; so it’s probably a good idea to make room for her on the ticket.
RACE 2 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
Contenders:
# 2 Cloud Clearing (ML 4-1)
# 3 Taken by Surprise (ML 7-2)
# 4 Echo Zulu (ML 3-1)
# 7 Heyyoucan (ML 5-2)
Echo Zulu, trained by Peter Miller, is getting some huge class relief here after competing in ungraded stakes in three of his last four contests. Takem by Surprise should be the early front runner and could get loose on the lead. Heyyoucan (also trained by Miller) and Clouds Clearing both took the Place in separate contests at this class level in their respective last starts.
Echo Zulu could be a single “A” based on the class drop; but my confidence in two year olds, especially at this level, isn’t especially high. Will probably pair up in the “A” category with the other part of the uncoupled Peter Miller entry, though Takem by Surprise deserves some consideration for that role as well, based upon his early speed.
RACE 3 - The Hollywood Prevue Stakes (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
Contenders:
# 1 Papa Turf (ML 3-1)
# 2 Shared Belief (ML 8-5)
# 4 Kobe’s Back (ML 7-5)
Kobe’s Back exited his debut a stakes winner after coming from dead last at the half to win the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes over this main track back in June. It should be noted that, despite the way that victory was obtained, Kobe’s Back may not be a true closer in running style, but rather may have just been the victim of a poor break; note the bullet gate work on October 30. So don’t be surprised if Kobe’s Back is closer to the pace in the early going in today’s event.
Papa Turf and Shared Belief each broke their maidens with Beyer Speed Figures that set them well apart from the rest of the field. Shared Belief has the added bonus of having the best Tomlinson Rating in the field for today’s seven furlong distance. I expect to be using all three contenders as “A’s”.
RACE 4 - (F) Clm $50K - Eight Furlongs Turf
Contenders:
# 1 English Crossing (ML 4-1)
# 2 Fantastic Mizz (ML 3-1)
# 3 Ricspretentiousgal (ML 5-2)
# 4 Meltarib (ML 3-1)
# 5 High Jinks (Brz) (ML 8-1)
English Crossing, Fantastic Mizz, and Ricspretentiousgal all show a victory at this level or higher within the last three races in their form. Meltarib took the Place behind Ricspretentiousgal her last time out with a trip that was far from smooth. High Jinks (Brz) is the Wild Card here, as she drops in for a tag for the first time while adding blinkers.
Tempted to make the John Sadler trained Ricspretentiousgal a single “A” based upon the addition of Rafael Bejarano in the saddle (note that the Sadler/Bejarano duo has produced more than thirty percent winners over the past couple of years). But there are several ways to go here, so this will be a game time decision.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $16K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
Contenders:
# 4 Tribal Peace (ML 3-1)
# 5 Anita Marie (ML 7-2)
# 8 Tribal Dress (ML 4-1)
# 9 Firendesire (ML 8-1)
Tribal Dress defeated older last time out, and took the place over this track at today’s distance against more expensive. Firendesire took the Place at a higher class level last time out, and defeated cheaper two back. Both of Tribal Peace’s victories have come over this main track; but they’ve also come against state-bred competition. Anita Marie was claimed by Owner and Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer her last time out for $25k; that was a quick love affair. Still, the presence of Bejarano in the saddle suggests that Anita Marie deserves some consideration for the top spot.
Currently leaning towards making Tribal Dress a single “A” here; though her half-sister Tribal Peace may join her in that category. If I do go single “A” here there’s a good chance that I’ll add a some more entrants to the “C” list.
Post Time for Race 1 @ Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good Lord willing, I’ll have my Pick Five tickets posted here at least thirty minutes prior to that.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $12.5K - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
Contenders:
# 2 Inner Groove (Morning Line 7-2)
# 3 Sugar Spice (ML 3-1)
# 4 Yuma Thurman (ML 10-1)
# 7 Rossi Reserve (ML 7-2)
Sugar Spice projects to be the quickest out of the gate in this field. Sugar Spice hit a hot streak after first donning blinkers, winning three out of four, with the only setback coming on the wet dirt at Santa Anita. She tried a first level allowance two starts back and was outclassed, though she was still able to make a clear lead at the start. Sugar Spice was back at today’s level in her last start, where she took the Place as the Post Time Favorite.
Sugar Spice is definitely an “A”; Inner Groove, taking a big class drop, is probably an “A” as well. Tempted to drop Rossi Reserve from the contenders list, as conditioner Javier Sierra does not often get his picture taken after contests. On the other hand, Rossi Reserve just missed her last two times out at this approximate class level; so it’s probably a good idea to make room for her on the ticket.
RACE 2 - Alw 40000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
Contenders:
# 2 Cloud Clearing (ML 4-1)
# 3 Taken by Surprise (ML 7-2)
# 4 Echo Zulu (ML 3-1)
# 7 Heyyoucan (ML 5-2)
Echo Zulu, trained by Peter Miller, is getting some huge class relief here after competing in ungraded stakes in three of his last four contests. Takem by Surprise should be the early front runner and could get loose on the lead. Heyyoucan (also trained by Miller) and Clouds Clearing both took the Place in separate contests at this class level in their respective last starts.
Echo Zulu could be a single “A” based on the class drop; but my confidence in two year olds, especially at this level, isn’t especially high. Will probably pair up in the “A” category with the other part of the uncoupled Peter Miller entry, though Takem by Surprise deserves some consideration for that role as well, based upon his early speed.
RACE 3 - The Hollywood Prevue Stakes (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
Contenders:
# 1 Papa Turf (ML 3-1)
# 2 Shared Belief (ML 8-5)
# 4 Kobe’s Back (ML 7-5)
Kobe’s Back exited his debut a stakes winner after coming from dead last at the half to win the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes over this main track back in June. It should be noted that, despite the way that victory was obtained, Kobe’s Back may not be a true closer in running style, but rather may have just been the victim of a poor break; note the bullet gate work on October 30. So don’t be surprised if Kobe’s Back is closer to the pace in the early going in today’s event.
Papa Turf and Shared Belief each broke their maidens with Beyer Speed Figures that set them well apart from the rest of the field. Shared Belief has the added bonus of having the best Tomlinson Rating in the field for today’s seven furlong distance. I expect to be using all three contenders as “A’s”.
RACE 4 - (F) Clm $50K - Eight Furlongs Turf
Contenders:
# 1 English Crossing (ML 4-1)
# 2 Fantastic Mizz (ML 3-1)
# 3 Ricspretentiousgal (ML 5-2)
# 4 Meltarib (ML 3-1)
# 5 High Jinks (Brz) (ML 8-1)
English Crossing, Fantastic Mizz, and Ricspretentiousgal all show a victory at this level or higher within the last three races in their form. Meltarib took the Place behind Ricspretentiousgal her last time out with a trip that was far from smooth. High Jinks (Brz) is the Wild Card here, as she drops in for a tag for the first time while adding blinkers.
Tempted to make the John Sadler trained Ricspretentiousgal a single “A” based upon the addition of Rafael Bejarano in the saddle (note that the Sadler/Bejarano duo has produced more than thirty percent winners over the past couple of years). But there are several ways to go here, so this will be a game time decision.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $16K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
Contenders:
# 4 Tribal Peace (ML 3-1)
# 5 Anita Marie (ML 7-2)
# 8 Tribal Dress (ML 4-1)
# 9 Firendesire (ML 8-1)
Tribal Dress defeated older last time out, and took the place over this track at today’s distance against more expensive. Firendesire took the Place at a higher class level last time out, and defeated cheaper two back. Both of Tribal Peace’s victories have come over this main track; but they’ve also come against state-bred competition. Anita Marie was claimed by Owner and Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer her last time out for $25k; that was a quick love affair. Still, the presence of Bejarano in the saddle suggests that Anita Marie deserves some consideration for the top spot.
Currently leaning towards making Tribal Dress a single “A” here; though her half-sister Tribal Peace may join her in that category. If I do go single “A” here there’s a good chance that I’ll add a some more entrants to the “C” list.
Post Time for Race 1 @ Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good Lord willing, I’ll have my Pick Five tickets posted here at least thirty minutes prior to that.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 3, 2013
11/2/13 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 9 - The BC Turf - # 11 Magician (Ire) (Final Odds 12.50) - No Selection
Race 10 - The BC Sprint - # 9 Secret Circle (2.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The BC Mile - # 8 Wise Dan (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - The BC Classic - # 6 Mucho Macho Man (4.00) - "C" Selection
Magician finished a half length in front of # 7 The Fugue (GB) (1.50*) in The BC Turf; and that was the difference between us cashing in on our Pick Four play and tearing up our tickets. I wrote in the preview that I thought Secret Circle would be the one getting his picture taken when The BC Sprint was over; but I didn't have confidence in my choice, and therefore wasted a good deal of money unnecessarily spreading wide in that event. I personally don't care much one way or the other regarding Eclipse awards, but I can't imagine a serious argument being made that it shouldn't be Wise Dan. # 9 Game On Dude (1.70*) again finished out of the money as the Post Time Favorite in the BC Classic. Worth noting is that, of the three jockeys to ride the 'Dude in The Classic, the only one to get him to finish in the money was Chantal Sutherland Kruse, and that was the one year in which the 'Dude was not the Post Time Favorite, going to Post at odds of 14.20. Just sayin'.
The correct Late Pick Four sequence of 11 / 9 / 8 / 6 paid $381.45 for a fifty cent wager. May God bless all those who had it as they spend their winnings. As for us, the Net Loss on our play is $88.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 10 - The BC Sprint - # 9 Secret Circle (2.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The BC Mile - # 8 Wise Dan (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - The BC Classic - # 6 Mucho Macho Man (4.00) - "C" Selection
Magician finished a half length in front of # 7 The Fugue (GB) (1.50*) in The BC Turf; and that was the difference between us cashing in on our Pick Four play and tearing up our tickets. I wrote in the preview that I thought Secret Circle would be the one getting his picture taken when The BC Sprint was over; but I didn't have confidence in my choice, and therefore wasted a good deal of money unnecessarily spreading wide in that event. I personally don't care much one way or the other regarding Eclipse awards, but I can't imagine a serious argument being made that it shouldn't be Wise Dan. # 9 Game On Dude (1.70*) again finished out of the money as the Post Time Favorite in the BC Classic. Worth noting is that, of the three jockeys to ride the 'Dude in The Classic, the only one to get him to finish in the money was Chantal Sutherland Kruse, and that was the one year in which the 'Dude was not the Post Time Favorite, going to Post at odds of 14.20. Just sayin'.
The correct Late Pick Four sequence of 11 / 9 / 8 / 6 paid $381.45 for a fifty cent wager. May God bless all those who had it as they spend their winnings. As for us, the Net Loss on our play is $88.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/2/13 Santa Anita Early Pick Four - Results
Race 4 - The BC Juvenile Fillies - # 5 Ria Antonia (Final Odds 32.30) - No Selection
Race 5 - The BC Filly & Mare Turf - # 1 Dank (GB) (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - The BC Filly & Mare Sprint - # 11 Groupie Doll (3.00*) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The BC Turf Sprint - # 12 Mizdirection (2.70*) - "A" Selection
One of our C selections, # 10 She's a Tiger (5.20) crossed the wire first in The BC Juvenile Fillies; but not before drifting out in the stretch and interfering with Ria Antonia; thus resulting in the disqualification of She's a Tiger. But even if there had been no DQ and the result had stood our play would still have folded, as we would have been in the same situation that we found ourselves yesterday; with two, rather than just one, ticket with three out of four winners. Condolences to the connections of # 4 Secret Compass (7.90) who broke down during the race and had to be euthanized. Prayers and Best Wishes for a full recovery go out to Jockey John Velazquez, the rider aboard Secret Compass. Velazquez was severely injured in the spill, and required emergency surgery to remove his spleen.
Groupie Doll's Win in the Filly & Mare Sprint showed that, while she may not be as good as she was last year, she was still good enough. We would've looked a lot smarter making her an "A" selection, but it just would've meant more heartache over She's a Tiger's DQ. Meanwhile # 9 Judy the Beauty (9.60) extended her record on fast dirt tracks to six out of six Place finishes.
We were right about the Mizdirection / # 4 Reneesgotzip (4.50) Exacta looking like a good play in The BC Turf Sprint; but a Dead Heat for Place between Reneesgotzip and # 7 Tightend Touchdown (18.00) meant the pool had to be split, making the payout $9.70 for a buck. Still, half a loaf is better than no loaf; and I should know, as I forgot to put this play in.
The correct Early Pick Four sequence of 5 / 1 / 11 / 12 paid $2,094.10 for a fifty cent wager. May God bless all those who had it as they spend their winnings. As for us, our Net Loss on our play is $48.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 5 - The BC Filly & Mare Turf - # 1 Dank (GB) (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - The BC Filly & Mare Sprint - # 11 Groupie Doll (3.00*) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - The BC Turf Sprint - # 12 Mizdirection (2.70*) - "A" Selection
One of our C selections, # 10 She's a Tiger (5.20) crossed the wire first in The BC Juvenile Fillies; but not before drifting out in the stretch and interfering with Ria Antonia; thus resulting in the disqualification of She's a Tiger. But even if there had been no DQ and the result had stood our play would still have folded, as we would have been in the same situation that we found ourselves yesterday; with two, rather than just one, ticket with three out of four winners. Condolences to the connections of # 4 Secret Compass (7.90) who broke down during the race and had to be euthanized. Prayers and Best Wishes for a full recovery go out to Jockey John Velazquez, the rider aboard Secret Compass. Velazquez was severely injured in the spill, and required emergency surgery to remove his spleen.
Groupie Doll's Win in the Filly & Mare Sprint showed that, while she may not be as good as she was last year, she was still good enough. We would've looked a lot smarter making her an "A" selection, but it just would've meant more heartache over She's a Tiger's DQ. Meanwhile # 9 Judy the Beauty (9.60) extended her record on fast dirt tracks to six out of six Place finishes.
We were right about the Mizdirection / # 4 Reneesgotzip (4.50) Exacta looking like a good play in The BC Turf Sprint; but a Dead Heat for Place between Reneesgotzip and # 7 Tightend Touchdown (18.00) meant the pool had to be split, making the payout $9.70 for a buck. Still, half a loaf is better than no loaf; and I should know, as I forgot to put this play in.
The correct Early Pick Four sequence of 5 / 1 / 11 / 12 paid $2,094.10 for a fifty cent wager. May God bless all those who had it as they spend their winnings. As for us, our Net Loss on our play is $48.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 2, 2013
11/2/13 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Taking a look at the final four races of the 2013 Breeders' Cup:
RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Little Mike (ML 6-1)
# 7 The Fugue (ML 3-1)
# 8 Point of Entry (ML 4-1)
# 10 Big Blue Kitten (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
I have to presume that had Big Blue Kitten won the head bob in the Turf Classic Invitational his odds would be much lower today (and my bankroll would be much larger). I don't care how Little Mike runs today; all I know is that he's not costing me another Pick Four payout.
RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Private Zone (ML 3-1)
# 9 Secret Circle (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 1 Justin Phillip (ML 4-1)
# 3 Gentlemen's Bet (ML 8-1)
# 5 Sum of the Parts (ML 12-1)
# 11 Trinniberg (ML 8-1)
Really like Justin Phillip against this field, but I suspect that his preferred running style will leave him compromised both by the way the track is playing and by drawing the rail. Trinniberg is winless since capturing this crown last year. Without Baffert as his trainer, I don't give Secret Circle a second look; with Baffert as his trainer, I think Secret Circle will be the one getting his picture taken when this one is over. Still, this is a very competitive race; really wish I could just hit the "ALL" button for this one. Actually, that may not be a bad idea; see below for a supplemental ticket.
RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Wise Dan (ML 1-1)
C’s
# 4 Obviously (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Olympic Glory (ML 4-1)
I thought long and hard about just going solo with Wise Dan here, especially as it would've allowed me to spread wider in Race 10. But when it comes to Johnny V at The Breeders' Cup...well, you just never know.
RACE 12 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Fort Larned (ML 6-1)
# 9 Game On Dude (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 2 Paynter (ML 12-1)
# 6 Mucho Macho Man (ML 5-1)
# 8 Palace Malice (ML 10-1)
# 10 Will Take Charge (ML 12-1)
The way the main track has been playing, you would think that it was all set for Game On Dude to win the Classic. But it looked that way last year too; and one stumble out of the gate later it was Fort Larned getting his picture taken to close out 2012 The Breeders' Cup. If Game On Dude decides not to fire again today this could be anyone's race. Palace Malice should do well coming off his performance in The Jockey Club Gold Cup. If they work on the track to deaded the speed and over do it, Will Take Charge is the best of the closers.
OK, lets put it all together.
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 7, 9
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 7, 9
Cost: $16.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 1, 3, 5, 11
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 7, 9
Cost: $16.00
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 7, 9
RACE 11: 4, 5
RACE 12: 7, 9
Cost: $16.00
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 7, 9
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 2, 6, 8, 10
Cost: $16.00
And here's the supplemental ticket I spoke of; play it for fifty cents:
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: ALL
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 9
Cost: $24.00
TOTAL COST: $88.00
Yeah, it's more than I prefer to spend on these plays; but this is The Breeders' Cup, after all. Besides, if Wise Dan and Game On Dude win the Late Double, we'll need either a price in Race 10 and/or multiple winning tickets in order to get a decent payout.
Post Time for Race 9 is 6:22 EDT / 3:22 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Little Mike (ML 6-1)
# 7 The Fugue (ML 3-1)
# 8 Point of Entry (ML 4-1)
# 10 Big Blue Kitten (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
I have to presume that had Big Blue Kitten won the head bob in the Turf Classic Invitational his odds would be much lower today (and my bankroll would be much larger). I don't care how Little Mike runs today; all I know is that he's not costing me another Pick Four payout.
RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Private Zone (ML 3-1)
# 9 Secret Circle (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 1 Justin Phillip (ML 4-1)
# 3 Gentlemen's Bet (ML 8-1)
# 5 Sum of the Parts (ML 12-1)
# 11 Trinniberg (ML 8-1)
Really like Justin Phillip against this field, but I suspect that his preferred running style will leave him compromised both by the way the track is playing and by drawing the rail. Trinniberg is winless since capturing this crown last year. Without Baffert as his trainer, I don't give Secret Circle a second look; with Baffert as his trainer, I think Secret Circle will be the one getting his picture taken when this one is over. Still, this is a very competitive race; really wish I could just hit the "ALL" button for this one. Actually, that may not be a bad idea; see below for a supplemental ticket.
RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Wise Dan (ML 1-1)
C’s
# 4 Obviously (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Olympic Glory (ML 4-1)
I thought long and hard about just going solo with Wise Dan here, especially as it would've allowed me to spread wider in Race 10. But when it comes to Johnny V at The Breeders' Cup...well, you just never know.
RACE 12 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Fort Larned (ML 6-1)
# 9 Game On Dude (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 2 Paynter (ML 12-1)
# 6 Mucho Macho Man (ML 5-1)
# 8 Palace Malice (ML 10-1)
# 10 Will Take Charge (ML 12-1)
The way the main track has been playing, you would think that it was all set for Game On Dude to win the Classic. But it looked that way last year too; and one stumble out of the gate later it was Fort Larned getting his picture taken to close out 2012 The Breeders' Cup. If Game On Dude decides not to fire again today this could be anyone's race. Palace Malice should do well coming off his performance in The Jockey Club Gold Cup. If they work on the track to deaded the speed and over do it, Will Take Charge is the best of the closers.
OK, lets put it all together.
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 7, 9
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 7, 9
Cost: $16.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 1, 3, 5, 11
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 7, 9
Cost: $16.00
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 7, 9
RACE 11: 4, 5
RACE 12: 7, 9
Cost: $16.00
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 7, 9
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 2, 6, 8, 10
Cost: $16.00
And here's the supplemental ticket I spoke of; play it for fifty cents:
RACE 9: 4, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: ALL
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 9
Cost: $24.00
TOTAL COST: $88.00
Yeah, it's more than I prefer to spend on these plays; but this is The Breeders' Cup, after all. Besides, if Wise Dan and Game On Dude win the Late Double, we'll need either a price in Race 10 and/or multiple winning tickets in order to get a decent payout.
Post Time for Race 9 is 6:22 EDT / 3:22 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/2/13 Santa Anita Early Pick Four - Preview
Day Two of America's Day at the Races. But before I go any further, I just want to be sure that everyone is aware of The Million Dollar Finish. The goal of the contest is to pick the Top Ten finishers in order in Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. I estimate that your odds of actually winning are slightly less than your odds of having a three way with Kate Upton and Scarlett Johansson six nights in a row. But it’s a million dollars; it’s free to register; so why not give it a shot?
RACE 4 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Artemis Agrotera (Morning Line 3-1)
# 7 Untapable (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 9 Sweet Reason (ML 5-2)
# 10 She's a Tiger (ML 6-1)
Sweet Reason is going to be seriously compromised if the main track at Santa Anita plays Saturday as it did on Friday. But even on a track that plays fair I see no reason why Artemis Agrotera can't beat Sweet Reason again.
RACE 5 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Dank (ML 5-2)
# 3 Tiz Flirtatious (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 6 Marketing Mix (ML 7-2)
# 7 Laughing (Ire) (ML 8-1)
The invading champ versus the local hero: Dank vs Tiz Flirtatious. Speaking as a fan, I'm really looking forward to this one. Marketing Mix is in my opinion just a step below those two but with Stevens on board she may get the best trip; while Laughing just might steal it all on the front end.
RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Teddy's Promise (ML 6-1)
# 8 Dance to Bristol (ML 5-1)
# 12 Sweet Lulu (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 6 Ismene (ML 20-1)
# 10 Great Hot (Brz) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Groupie Doll (ML 5-2)
What a difference a year makes; or does it? Groupie Doll is the Morning Line Favorite, but I think she can be beat (though I'm nowhere near brave enough to leave her off the ticket altogether). Dance to Bristol would probably be my single A on a track playing fair. Leaving Judy the Beauty off the tickets; I'm hoping today isn't the day that she gets her first win on real dirt. Really rolling the dice on this one.
RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 12 Mizdirection (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 3 Chips All In (ML 5-1)
# 4 Reneesgotzip (ML 5-1)
# 6 Boat Trip (ML 8-1)
She did it before and she can do it again. Mizdirection's form heading into today's event looks almost identical to her form going into this race last year. Reneesgotzip should improve off her performance last year; a Mizdirection / Reneesgotzip Exacta looks like a good play.
OK, putting it all together:
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 4: 9, 10
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 6, 7
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 6, 10, 11
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 3, 4, 6
Cost: $18.00
TOTAL COST: $48.00
And just for fun, here's a small $2 Pick Six Ticket you can use to get some cheap Saturday afternoon action:
RACE 7: 12
RACE 8: 6, 13
RACE 9: 4, 8
RACE 10: 7. 9
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 9
Cost: $16.00
Post Time for Race 4 is scheduled for 3:05 EDT / 12:05 PDT. Post Time for Race 7 is scheduled for 5:05 EDT / 2:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 4 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Artemis Agrotera (Morning Line 3-1)
# 7 Untapable (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 9 Sweet Reason (ML 5-2)
# 10 She's a Tiger (ML 6-1)
Sweet Reason is going to be seriously compromised if the main track at Santa Anita plays Saturday as it did on Friday. But even on a track that plays fair I see no reason why Artemis Agrotera can't beat Sweet Reason again.
RACE 5 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Dank (ML 5-2)
# 3 Tiz Flirtatious (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 6 Marketing Mix (ML 7-2)
# 7 Laughing (Ire) (ML 8-1)
The invading champ versus the local hero: Dank vs Tiz Flirtatious. Speaking as a fan, I'm really looking forward to this one. Marketing Mix is in my opinion just a step below those two but with Stevens on board she may get the best trip; while Laughing just might steal it all on the front end.
RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Teddy's Promise (ML 6-1)
# 8 Dance to Bristol (ML 5-1)
# 12 Sweet Lulu (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 6 Ismene (ML 20-1)
# 10 Great Hot (Brz) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Groupie Doll (ML 5-2)
What a difference a year makes; or does it? Groupie Doll is the Morning Line Favorite, but I think she can be beat (though I'm nowhere near brave enough to leave her off the ticket altogether). Dance to Bristol would probably be my single A on a track playing fair. Leaving Judy the Beauty off the tickets; I'm hoping today isn't the day that she gets her first win on real dirt. Really rolling the dice on this one.
RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 12 Mizdirection (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 3 Chips All In (ML 5-1)
# 4 Reneesgotzip (ML 5-1)
# 6 Boat Trip (ML 8-1)
She did it before and she can do it again. Mizdirection's form heading into today's event looks almost identical to her form going into this race last year. Reneesgotzip should improve off her performance last year; a Mizdirection / Reneesgotzip Exacta looks like a good play.
OK, putting it all together:
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 4: 9, 10
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 6, 7
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 6, 10, 11
RACE 7: 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 4: 1, 7
RACE 5: 1, 3
RACE 6: 5, 8, 12
RACE 7: 3, 4, 6
Cost: $18.00
TOTAL COST: $48.00
And just for fun, here's a small $2 Pick Six Ticket you can use to get some cheap Saturday afternoon action:
RACE 7: 12
RACE 8: 6, 13
RACE 9: 4, 8
RACE 10: 7. 9
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 9
Cost: $16.00
Post Time for Race 4 is scheduled for 3:05 EDT / 12:05 PDT. Post Time for Race 7 is scheduled for 5:05 EDT / 2:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, November 1, 2013
11/1/13 GG R3 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
We take a slight break from The Breeders' Cup to report on City Chapel, the longshot claim by Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo that we've been following. City Chapel competed in Race 3 at Golden Gate Fields Friday, a $20k conditioned Claiming Event (NW2LX) run at a distance of five and a half furlongs over the main synthetic track.
Breaking slowest of all in the field of seven, City Chapel (Final Odds 3.40) settled early, went four wide around the turn, and grabbed the Place, three and a half lengths behind the Winner, Bwana Be Gone (2.30). For his efforts City Chapel earned for his connections $3,600 in purse money; bringing his total winnings since being claimed for $4,000 by Trujillo to $49,855.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Breaking slowest of all in the field of seven, City Chapel (Final Odds 3.40) settled early, went four wide around the turn, and grabbed the Place, three and a half lengths behind the Winner, Bwana Be Gone (2.30). For his efforts City Chapel earned for his connections $3,600 in purse money; bringing his total winnings since being claimed for $4,000 by Trujillo to $49,855.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/1/13 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
In a variation on a familiar theme, we today had not one, but two Pick Four tickets with three out of four winners.
The Late Pick Four sequence at Santa Anita on Breeders' Cup Friday began with Race 7 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. # 4 Outstrip (GB) (Final Odds 6.00), one of our "C" selections, crossed the wire first, a half length in front of another of our "C" selections, # 2 Giovanni Boldini (4.00); while our single "A" selection, # 5 Bobby's Kitten (1.30*) took the Show. Incidentally, after the race it was reported that Bobby's Kitten's owner Ken Ramsey, upset with his horse's failure to win, declared that Jockey Javier Castellano would never ride Bobby's Kitten again; offering further evidence that no one ever boos the horse.
Race 8 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile was won by # 12 Goldencents (3.80); and while we had Goldencents on our tickets, we had him as we had Outstrip in the prior race: as one of our "C" selections. So with that, our Pick Four play died, rendering moot victories by "A" selections # 8 Chriselliam (Ire) (6.90) in Race 9 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and # 5 Beholder (2.80) in Race 10 - The Breeders' Cup Distaff.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had on a single ticket the correct sequence of 4 / 12 / 8 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $403.90 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The Late Pick Four sequence at Santa Anita on Breeders' Cup Friday began with Race 7 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. # 4 Outstrip (GB) (Final Odds 6.00), one of our "C" selections, crossed the wire first, a half length in front of another of our "C" selections, # 2 Giovanni Boldini (4.00); while our single "A" selection, # 5 Bobby's Kitten (1.30*) took the Show. Incidentally, after the race it was reported that Bobby's Kitten's owner Ken Ramsey, upset with his horse's failure to win, declared that Jockey Javier Castellano would never ride Bobby's Kitten again; offering further evidence that no one ever boos the horse.
Race 8 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile was won by # 12 Goldencents (3.80); and while we had Goldencents on our tickets, we had him as we had Outstrip in the prior race: as one of our "C" selections. So with that, our Pick Four play died, rendering moot victories by "A" selections # 8 Chriselliam (Ire) (6.90) in Race 9 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and # 5 Beholder (2.80) in Race 10 - The Breeders' Cup Distaff.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had on a single ticket the correct sequence of 4 / 12 / 8 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $403.90 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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