A cold day throughout most of the United States today. Aqueduct decided to cancel its card due to high winds, while Zia Park in New Mexico had its weekend of racing wiped out by snow (look for Zia Park to run their big races scheduled for today on Wednesday, Thanksgiving Eve). Meanwhile, SoCal is (relatively) warm and dry; so we turn our attention there and take a stab at today's Pick Five.
RACE 1 - Clm $10K N1Y - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Macias (Morning Line 8-5)
# 6 Dunmore East (ML 7-5)
C’s
# 2 Da Ruler (ML 4-1)
Macias and Dunmore East are both making a significant class drop from their last respective races, going from open claimers to compete against horses that have yet to win in 2013. The speed figures for these two put them significantly ahead of the rest of the field; however, as neither has ever finished in the money at Hollywood Park, I thought it prudent to slot Da Ruler in as a contingency pick.
RACE 2 - (F) Clm $16K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Catch Lorraine (ML 6-1)
# 5 Rossi Reserve (ML 7-2)
# 6 No Tricks for Jack (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 7 Addendum (ML 5-2)
Catch Lorraine has been showing steady improvement in her comeback, and will no doubt appreciate the class relief. Rossi Reserve defeated slightly cheaper her last time out. Rossi Reserve is also the only filly in this field with multiple wins over the Hollywood Park main track. Today will be Rossi Reserve’s first start without an apprentice jockey on her back since August 2. No Tricks for Jack has twice won at this level in her last six races. Addendum’s recent form is acceptable if you toss out her last race which was on the turf; but the fact that she is just one-for-ten on synthetic surfaces, and oh-for-six for her career at Hollywood Park, downgrades her to “C” contender status in my eyes.
RACE 3 - (F) Alw C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Need You Now (Ire) (ML 7-5)
C’s
# 1 Judy In Disguise (GB) (ML 2-1)
This is an Allowance Race for three year old fillies which have never won a Graded Stakes; so this is a stakes-caliber event. Need You Now should enjoy a large enough pace advantage to have things all her own way on the front end; I expect her to lead this small field around the track, going gate to wire. Judy In Disguise is (in my opinion) the only horse in this field that can compete with Need You Now on a class level; but Judy In Disguise gets downgraded to “C” status as she would much rather sprint than cover today’s distance (and yes, I know Judy In Disguise does well charging down the hill at Santa Anita; but as you can see from her form that ability has yet to carry over when she has to run a flat mile).
RACE 4 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Snuggley Bear (ML 9-2)
C’s
Everyone else
This is anybody’s race. Six of the nine entrants are first time starters; two of which (# 2 Indianapolis (ML 5-2) and # 4 Icy Ride (ML 5-1)) are going for Trainer Bob Baffert, who wins about a quarter of the time that he sends out a first time starter. Two of the other first time starters (# 6 Ian Street (ML 8-1) and # 9 Frosted Boss (ML 8-1)) are sired by Street Boss (by Street Cry (Ire)), whose descendants win at a 20% clip when making their debuts.
I decided to slot Snuggley Bear into the single “A” slot primarily to keep the cost of this play reasonable. But I also like Snuggley Bear because horses that have taken the Place their last time out against MSW company tend to outperform first time starters. I also like that, of the three experienced runners in this field, Snuggley Bear is the only one with a Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance above 400. The presence of Rafael Bejarano on Snuggley Bear’s back today adds to the appeal.
RACE 5 - (F) Clm $10K - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Swiss Bliss (ML 2-1)
# 7 Magic Number (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 3 Lil Cheyenne (ML 6-1)
# 6 Wink and Wish (ML 5-1)
# 8 Jeanne Marini (ML 6-1)
Swiss Bliss has taken the Place and Show often enough to lead one to believe that she’d rather not lead the pack home. However, this field is such that she may find herself crossing the wire first simply by default. Magic Number goes up against winners for the first time today; but her one career win did come in her one career race over this main track, along with being against older than these.
Wink and Wish could be the speed of the speed. Both of her career Wins have been on a synthetic surface at today’s distance. Jeanne Marini’s bullet work last week suggests that she’ll be ready to go today after a two month freshening. Lil Cheyenne could be sitting in a good spot if the front runners blow the pace up.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 1: 2
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $3.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 7
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $2.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 1
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $6.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
RACE 5: 5, 7
Cost: $48.00
RACE 1: 4, 6
RACE 2: 4, 5, 6
RACE 3: 5
RACE 4: 7
RACE 5: 3, 6, 8
Cost: $9.00
TOTAL COST: $80.00
Post Time for Race 1 at Hollywood Park is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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