3/29/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 2 Sweet Silver (Final Odds 1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Gas Total (Brz) (10.70) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Santana Mile - # 3 Blue Tone (4.80) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Young and Hungry (1.10*) - "A" Selection

Gas Total (Brz) certainly fit the contenders well on class in Race 7, but I didn't use her because I didn't like her career record of just one Win in twenty tries on turf.  Well, Gas Total is now a lifetime two-for-twentyone on turf, having crossed the wire a half length in front of our "A" Selection, # 11 Mangita (5.80); and that half length was the difference today between us cashing our tickets or trashing them.

Oh well. onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  2 / 2 / 3 / 10  were rewarded with a payout of $106.00 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/29/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Taking our play back to SoCal Sunday as The Great Race Place features the twelfth running of The Santana Mile.

RACE 6 - (F) Md $30k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Sweet Silver (Morning Line 3-1)
# 3 Dixie Dame (ML 5-2)

B's

# 7 Powerful Girl (ML 4-1)

C’s

None

# 6 Silent Code (ML 12-1) has been scratched.

Sweet Silver took the Show at this class level last time out.  The concern with Sweet Silver is that she really didn't move forward with the class drop, as she had taken the Show in her previous race against much move expensive while earning a nearly identical Beyer Speed Figure as in her last time out.

Dixie Dame took the Place at this class level last time out.  Powerful Girl earned her career best Beyer Speed Figure four starts back at this class level over this main track at today's distance.  Since that race Powerful Girl's connections have been trying to see if she could win at distances greater than six furlongs without much success.  I suspect Powerful Girl will appreciate the turnback in distance.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Circling (Ire) (ML 2-1)
# 11 Mangita (ML 8-1)

B's

# 3 Nickels Wild (ML 6-1)

C’s

None

# 1 Fresh Feline (NL) is a program scratch, which is why Mangita is running off the Also Eligible List.

Circling (Ire), trained by Neil Drysdale and ridden by Mike Smith, missed winning at this class level by less than a length last time out in his North American debut.  Mangita won at this class level three starts back with today's rider (Aaron Gryder) aboard.

Nickels Wild turned in a solid effort at this class level charging down the hill last time out.  Nickels Wild is trained by Gary Mandella, whose runners don't often move forward second off the layoff; but Nickels Wild's prior form suggests that she much prefers the flat going at today's distance, and therefore is worthy of consideration here.

RACE 8 - The Santana Mile $75k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Rousing Sermon (ML 4-1)

B's

# 2 Majestic City (ML 6-1)
# 3 Blue Tone (ML 6-1)
# 4 Appealing Tale (ML 4-1)
# 5 Storm Fighter (ML 12-1)
# 6 Galicado (Arg) (ML 3-1)
# 8 Ankeny Hill (ML 8-1)
# 10 Edge of Reality (ML 12-1)

C’s

None

# 1 Secretsatmidnight (ML 8-1) and # 7 You Know I Know (ML 10-1) have been scratched.

Rousing Sermon, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Rafael Bejarano, is the top career earner in this field with regards to results on a fast dirt track, and therefore gets the nod in this very competitive field.  The B's are everyone else; again, this looks to me to be a very competitive field, and I expect the result will probably come down to whichever runner gets the best trip without burning itself out on the early pace.

RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf 

A’s

# 10 Young and Hungry (ML 2-1)

B's

None

C’s

# 2 Tizzing (ML 5-1)
# 4 Foreverly (ML 8-1)
# 7 Top Floor (ML 6-1)
# 8 Best Two Minutes (ML 6-1)
# 9 Perfectly Majestic (ML 6-1)

Young and Hungry has taken the Place charging down the hill at this class level in each of his two prior races.  On form he appears to be a standout; but he looked like a standout last time out as well, so it seems prudent to hedge a bit here.

Tizzing, Foreverly, Top Floor, and Best Two Minutes have all shown ability charging down the hill, and it would not surprise me for anyone of these to make a big move forward today.  Perfectly Majestic, trained by Bob Hess and ridden by Mike Smith, is trying grass for the first time,  If Perfectly Majestic takes to the surface switch, then he could be part of the mix at the wire.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,3 with 7,11 with 9 with 10 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,7 with 3,7,11 with 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10 with 10 $36.00

A's with One C 

$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 7,11 with 9 with 2,4,7,8,9 $10.00

Total: $50.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:57 EST / 2:57 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/28/15 Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six - Preview

Saturday The Road to the Kentucky Derby heads east, more east, and even further east, with the running of The Louisiana Derby, The Florida Derby, and The UAE Derby; and this week we're going to let our play travel on that road as well.  Not to all three destinations, mind you; but we are going to chase the East Coast version of The Great White Whale, and take a run at Gulfstream Park's Rainbow Six.

RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Abounding Legacy (Morning Line 7-2)
# 2 River Date (ML 6-1)
# 8 Scorch (ML 4-1)

C's

None

# 6 Summer Dancer (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Abounding Legacy is moving up from state bred competition to open non-claiming maidens; but since the state is Florida, it's really not all that big a jump, and Abounding Legacy's Beyer Speed Figures suggest that he belongs with the contenders here.  River Date has finished in the money in each of his last two races at this class level.  Scorch took the Place last time out at this class level in his debut.

RACE 10 - (F) The Honey Fox (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Sandiva (Ire) (ML 7-2)

# 7 Istanford (ML 5-1)

# 8 Coffee Clique (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

Sandiva (Ire) enters this contest with a two race winning streak, both over this turf course against stakes competition.  Sandiva's career record of oh-for-five at today's distance is a concern; but as she was able to make the lead well before the wire in each of her last two victories, I don't think the distance will be the determining factor in her result today.

Istanford, five for ten lifetime on the grass including a pair of Graded Stakes wins, should be up on the pace right out of the gate.  If she can get some soft fractions early they may not be able to catch her late.

Coffee Clique makes her 2015 debut, having won the Grade 1 Just A Game at Belmont Park her last time out back in June.  Coffee Clique appears to be the clear class of this field, but the long layoff is a concern, as is the decision by Jockey Javier Castellano (who was on board Coffee Clique in each of her last two wins) to jump off her back to ride Sandiva instead.

RACE 11 - (F) The Orchid (Grade 3) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 White Rose (ML 6-1)

# 4 Kitten's Point (ML 7-2)

# 7 Riposte (GB) (ML 5-2)

C’s

None

White Rose won The Dowager Stakes at Keeneland at today's distance two starts back.  Kitten's Point won The Astra Stakes at Santa Anita at today's distance two starts back.  Riposte (GB), a Graded Stakes winner here in North America, won the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Ascot at today's distance back in August 2013.

RACE 12 - (F) The Gulfstream Park Oaks (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Ekati's Phaeton (ML 4-1)

# 6 Eskenformoney (ML 5-2)

# 8 Birdatthewire (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

Ekati's Phaeton, winner of the Grade 2 Davona Dale last time out, and the Grade 3 Old Hat three starts back, is a career four-for-five over this main track.  Interesting that Ekati's Phaeton has the highest odds of the trio, as Eskenformoney and Birdatthewire were her beaten foes in the Davona Dale.  Still, all three horse were within a half-length of each other at the wire last time out, so it would not take much for either Eskenformoney or Birdatthewire to turn the tables on Ekati's Phaeton today.

RACE 13 - The Pan American (Grade 3) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Imagining (ML 7-2)

# 8 Twilight Eclipse (ML 6-5)

C’s

None

I really wanted to make Twilight Eclipse a single on this ticket, as his nemesis Main Sequence is competing on the other side of the planet.  But Imagining has finished in front of Twilight Eclipse in the not-too-distant past, and Trainer Tom Albertrani (Twilight Eclipse's conditioner) has not been having the best of meets; so Imagining goes on the ticket as well.

RACE 14 - The Florida Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Materiality (ML 7-2)

# 9 Upstart (ML 8-5)

C’s

None

As with Twilight Eclipse in the previous race, I was hoping to make Upstart a single on my ticket in this contest, as he was much the best last time out in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth despite being disqualified.  But the far outside post at this trip on this main track is a concern, and the high Beyer Speed Figure Materiality earned in his second career start last time out is just too good to overlook.

OK, that's the analysis.  Everything's an "A" Selection and goes on a single ticket, because what better way to find out whether or not this is the luckiest day of our lives.  So with that we get:

All A Entries

$0.20 P6: 1,2,8 with 4,7,8 with 2,4,7 with 3,6,8 with 3,8 with 7,9 $64.80

Total: $64.80

Post Time for Race 9 is 3:53 EDT / 12:53 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/26/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results

Race 2 - # 4 High Greeley (Final Odds 0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 3 Rosary Man (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 4 Our Little Hen (1.80*) - No Selection
Race 5 - # 2 Astutely (27.00) - No Selection
Race 6 - # 6 Catz On Fire (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Laff Itup Fuzzball (1.40*) - "A" Selection

Our Little Hen in Race 4 was 5-1 on the Morning Line; but it was no real surprise that she was bet down to be the Post Time Favorite, as she was a perfectly logical horse, having been a clear winner in each of her three prior races over the Golden Gate Fields main track.  We should have found the courage (that we stated we lacked in the preview) to drop # 1 Karaoke Cat (2.10) in Race 6 from the ticket; had we done so, we almost definitely would have included Our Little Hen in our play.

But Astutely in Race 5?  Man, the only way we were going to have Astutely on our tickets would have been by hitting the "ALL" button in Race 5.  So while leaving Our Little Hen off our tickets was not an optimal decision, it was not the losing decision; as it just would have meant trashing a ticket with five winners on it, rather than four.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Six sequence of  4 / 3 / 4 / 2 / 6 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $896.98 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/26/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview

Free time coupled with a desire to turn my focus away from more unpleasant matters means we've got ourselves a mid-week special.  There's a carryover jackpot of a little over $139k hanging out in Northern California, so let's take yet another run at The Great White Whale that is the Golden Pick Six.

RACE 2 - Clm $4k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Moody (Morning Line 9-2)

# 4 High Greeley (ML 6-5)

C’s

None

Moody, trying winners for the first time today, could be quickest of the bunch in this field.  High Greeley drops in for the lowest tag of his career for Trainer Steve Sherman.

RACE 3 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Rosary Man (ML 7-5)

# 6 Our Brother B.A. (ML 2-1)

C's

None

Rosary Man, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Russel Baze, took the Place at this class level last time out after having taken the Show in his debut.  Our Brother B. A., who took the Show in the Turf Paradise Derby last time out, makes his California debut today.  The bullet work that Brother B. A. posted on the 22nd suggests that he'll take well to the synthetic surface.

RACE 4 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Tiz Kissable (ML 8-5)

# 2 Magnificent Shirl (ML 2-1)

C’s

None

The last time Tiz Kissable competed on a synthetic surface, she took the Show in the Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes at Delmar.  Magnificent Shirl, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Russel Baze, just missed by a nose of winning at this level the last time that she raced on this main track.

RACE 5 - Clm $4k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Mojave Heat (ML 2-1)

# 5 Dane O Mite (ML 6-1)

# 6 Red Globe (ML 5-2)

# 7 The Tom Squad (ML 9-2)

C’s

None

Same conditions as Race 2 above, so think of this as the other division of that event.  Mojave Heat and Red Globe, who finished just a nose apart last time out while taking the Place and Show (respectively) at this class level, look on form as if they should dominate the rest of this field.  The problem is that Mojave Heat and Red Globe have a combined lifetime record of two wins in forty-six starts; numbers that do not inspire a great deal of confidence.  So for that reason we're going to spread a bit here.

Dane O Mite tries winners for the first time; note that Trainer Victor Trujillo wins about a quarter of the time that he sends a last out winner out for a repeat.  The Tom Squad drops in class and stretches out to two turns; I expect both those changes to lead to an improved performance.

RACE 6 - Alw 40000s N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Karaoke Cat (ML 8-5)

# 6 Catz On Fire (ML 2-1)

C’s

None

The conditions allow entrants to have one (and just one) additional win, provided that win was for $16k or less.  That's what makes this an N2X rather than the more usual N2L, and which is why # 5 Archie Graham (ML 8-1), winner of a $12.5k Claiming contest last time out, is eligible to compete here despite having two career victories.

Karaoke Cat has been unsuccessful a half-dozen times at this class level; but his Beyer Speed Figures are so superior to the rest of the field that keeping him off the ticket requires courage that I do not possess.  Catz On Fire, who came running late to grab the Place at this class level last time out, should appreciate the stretch out to two turns.

RACE 7 - (F) Md $5k - Five Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Jill's Joy (ML 9-5)

# 4 Lucky Feelin (ML 6-1)

# 5 Laff Itup Fuzzball (ML 5-2)

C’s

None

The finale is the only one-turn sprint in the sequence.  Toss Jill's Joy's last race, when she disappointed as the Post Time Favorite, as it was over for her before it really began, when she ducked in at the start.  Jill's Joy, Lucky Feelin, and Laff Itup Fuzzball are all dropping to their lowest respective lifetime class level, and all have earned Beyer Speed Figures in their careers that are significantly better than the career bests of the other runners in this field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Everything's an "A" Selection and goes on a single ticket, because what better way to find out whether or not this is the luckiest day of our lives.  So with that we get:

All A Entries

$0.20 P6: 3,4 with 3,6 with 1,2 with 3,5,6,7 with 1,6 with 3,4,5 $38.40

Total: $38.40

Post Time for Race 2 is 4:15 EDT / 1:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/22/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 8 Salsita (Final Odds 41.10) - No Selection
Race 7 - The Dream of Summer - # 5 Wild in the Saddle (0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Bird Lover (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 # 3 Gold Locket (7.00) - "C" Selection

Our "A" Selection in Race 6, # 4 Always a Chance (2.90) had the lead as the field crossed the dirt path into the stretch, and was clear with half a furlong to go; but she couldn't hold off Salsita, and lost the lead in the final stride, crossing the wire a half length behind the winner.  And that half length was the difference between us cashing or trashing, as we had the top runner in each of the other three legs.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  8 / 5 / 1 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $1,182.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/22/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The Sunland Derby is today's destination on The Road to the Kentucky Derby, so several familiar faces that you're used to seeing at The Great Race Place will instead be in New Mexico.  As for us, we'll be sticking with our usual agenda and taking a run at the Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 4 Always a Chance (Morning Line 3-1)

C’s

# 1 Nero's Pleasure (ML 5-2)
# 7 Nazareth (ML 8-1)

# 6 Kerrilynn (Morning Line 4-1) has been scratched.

Always A Chance switches to the hill after showing good early speed while routing on the flat turf course.  Nero's Pleasure took the Show at this class level two starts back.  Nero's Pleasure gets a rider switch back to Drayden Van Dyke, who was on board for both of Nero's Pleasure's two career Wins.  Nazareth gets some much needed class relief.

RACE 7 - [S] (F) The Dream of Summer $100k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Wild in the Saddle (ML 9-5)

C’s

None

# 1 Anniversary Kitty (ML 6-1) and # 4 Sweet Marini (ML 8-5) have been scratched.

Wild in the Saddle, going third off the layoff for Trainer Richard Baltas, was a clear winner last time out at today's distance over this main track, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that should get the job done today.

Had she not scratched, Sweet Marini would have been an "A" Selection here.  The scratches make this a four horse field.  My personal opinion is that not using Wild in the Saddle as a single makes it hard to justify not hitting the "ALL" button in this leg, as the other three runners strike me as inseparable in terms of their current class and condition.  Since it seems to me a better strategy to spread wider in legs other than this one, our ticket today hinges on Wild in the Saddle; if she loses, then we lose too.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 80k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Birdlover (GB) (ML 9-5)

# 2 Customer Base (ML 7-2)

C’s

# 6 Industrial Party (ML 8-1)

# 9 Hijra (Ire) (ML 4-1)

# 5 Indecise (ML 4-1) has been scratched.

The conditions for this one limit it to runners:

1) Which have never won $10k three times other than Maiden, Claiming, or Starter; OR

2) That are California breds which have never won four races; OR

3) Which have not won a race other than Closed, Claiming, or Starter at a mile or longer since March 1, 2014; OR

4) Which will run for an Optional Claiming price of $80k

Note that none of the runners here are in for the $80k claiming price, so all meet at least one of the other three conditions.

Birdlover (GB) misses by just a head of entering this contest with a three race winning streak.  Birdlover has finished in the Exacta in all seven of her career races on the Santa Anita grass.

Customer Base seems to prefer longer, as she is a career oh-for-seven at today's distance.  But Customer Base has finished in the money four of those seven times, and several of those contests were against much tougher company than she will be facing here today.

Expect Industrial Party to be running late, and there should be enough pace here for her to chase.  Hijra (Ire) has finished in the money four of the five times that she's tried this distance on the grass.  Note also that Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wins approximately 23% of the time that he sends a last out winner out for a repeat.

RACE 9 - Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Gold Journey (ML 4-1)

# 7 Just Bookin (ML 4-1)

C’s

# 3 Gold Locket (ML 8-1)

# 5 Coded Message (ML 7-2)

# 8 Miserable Blue (ML 4-1)

# 10 Pocketfullofgreen (ML 3-1)

# 9 Glendas Grace (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Gold Journey and Just Bookin both took the Place at this class level in their respective last out races.  Gold Locket took the Place at this class level two starts back.  Coded Message has finished in the money in each of her two career starts, both at this class level.

Miserable Blue makes her second career start after showing good early speed in her debut.  Pocketfullofgreen drops in class for her second career start.  Note that Pocketfullofgreen's trainer Phil D'Amato wins one out of every four times that he sends a maiden out for their second start.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion in which we eventually get all the runners onto a single ticket, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 5 with 1,2 with 6,7 $4.00

All A Entries with All C Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4,7 with 5 with 1,2,6,9 with 3,5,6,7,8,10 $36.00

Total: $40.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:57 EST / 2:57 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/21/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 8 Vow Me Over (Final Odds 2.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Courageous Call (2.90) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The San Luis Rey - # 9 Ashleyluvssugar (5.60) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Spin Forty (5.90) - "C" Selection

We needed # 8 Finnegans Wake (0.70*) to win the San Luis Rey in order to collect; but Finnegans Wake was only second best today, and the two and a quarter lengths that he finished behind Ashleyluvssugar was the difference between us trashing our Late Pick Four tickets instead of cashing them.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  8 / 2 / 9 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $311.65 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/21/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The Road to the Kentucky Derby makes a stop today in, of all places, Kentucky, for the renewal of the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park.  Meanwhile, at The Great Race Place, the 64th running of the San Luis Rey is the featured race, and will be part of the Late Pick Four sequence at which we'll be taking a shot.

RACE 6 - (F) Md $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 8 Vow Me Over (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 2 Ivana Beat Yabad (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 10 Journeyonthemove (ML 8-1)

# 11 Katy Drama (ML 12-1)

The Also Eligibles, # 13 Miz Penelope (ML 8-1) and # 14 Mackenzies Moment, do not draw in, and get to watch the NCAA Tournament.

Vow Me Over and Ivana Beat Yabad are the only two runners in this contest with experience charging down the hill; indeed, the only two with any turf experience at all in this field.  Vow Me Over took the Place at this class level last time, albeit on the main dirt track.  Ivana Beat Yabad seems to have cycled up to her Beyer Speed Figures as a juvenile last year, and could take a big step forward today.  Ivana Beat Yabad is dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time.

Journeyonthemove, one of two first time starters in this field for Trainer Mike Puype (who does quite well when debuting runners in Maiden Claiming events) appears to have the edge over her stablemate, # 5 Shandong Dj Dragon (ML 12-1), in terms of both breeding (as expressed by their respective Tomlinson Ratings) and their morning workouts.  Katy Drama, trying the grass for the first time for Trainer Peter Miller, seems to be the quickest in the field.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Courageous Call (ML 4-1)

B's

# 9 Crushed Velvet ML (5-2)

C’s

None

Courageous Call has finished in the money at this approximate class level on this main track at today's approximate distance in each of her last three races, which includes a victory back in January.  Crushed Velvet, who took the Show in the 2014 running of the Grade 2 Santa Ynez the last time that she competed, goes for trainer Bob Baffert, who wins nearly a third of the time with those coming back from an extended layoff.

RACE 8 - The San Luis Rey (Grade 2) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Finnegans Wake (ML 6-5)

B's

None

C’s

None

# 7 Fly Lexis Fly (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Finnegans Wake enters this race in top form, coming into today's contest with a three race winning streak, all in Grade 2 events.  Finnegans Wake is the clear class of this field, with over a million dollars in career purse earnings on turf.  Finnegans Wake may not cross the wire first today; but I can't see making a reasonable case for any of the other runners in today's field beating him.

RACE 9 - Md $30k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 14 Captain Carchy (ML 7-2)

B's

# 12 Bandido Too (ML 8-1)

C’s

# 1 Southeast Asia (ML 20-1)

# 5 Spin Forty (ML 4-1)

# 7 Rodeado (ML 6-1)

# 9 Captain G (ML 6-1)

# 11 He's Dreamy (ML 12-1)

# 4 Momma Tried (ML 12-1) and # 13 Sterling Wager (ML 6-1) have been scratched.

Captain Carchy has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last three races, missing victory by less than a length last time out.  Bandido Too looks to be the quickest in this field.  Bandido Too has also cycled back up to the Beyer Speed Figures that he had earned last year as a two year old.

Southeast Asia took the Show against more expensive two starts back, his most recent race on dirt.  Spin Forty runs with a price tag on his head for the first time in his career.  In addition, Spin Forty is sired by Hard Spun; I have no stats to back this up, but progeny of Hard Spun seem to do rather well at the seven furlong distance.

Rodeado took the Show at this class level last time out.  Captain G took the Show against more expensive two starts back, his most recent race on a dry track.  He's Dreamy, trained by Steve Miyadi, could be cycling up to a big number.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in a modified Crist fashion in which we eventually get all the runners onto a single ticket, we get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 8 with 2 with 8 with 14 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,8 with 2,9 with 8 with 12,14 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries with All C Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,8,10,11 with 2,9 with 8 with 1,5,7,9,11,12,14 $28.00

Total: $38.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:57 EST / 2:57 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/14/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 6 Shakahari (Final Odds 7.50) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Forest Chatter (1.20*) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Santa Margarita - # 7 Warren's Veranda (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Show Stealer (6-1) - "B" Selection

We played against Forest Chatter.

He won.

We lost.

I wrote in the preview that I didn't think that Forest Chatter was ready to make the jump from state bred into open competition.  Well, Forest Chatter gave his rebuttal in Race 7, crossing the wire a length and three quarters in front of "A" Selection, # 3 Skylander (5.70); and that length and three quarters was the difference today between us cashing or trashing our tickets.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  6 / 1 / 7 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $288.10 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/14/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The Grade 1 Santa Margarita for fillies and mares is Saturday's feature race at The Great Race Place; and that's all I've got as far as an introduction goes.  So let's just get to it, and take a look at Saturday's Late Pick Four.

RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Sidepocket Champ (Morning Line 6-1)
# 2 Coolington (ML 3-1)

B's

# 6 Shakahari (ML 4-1)
# 8 Taken by Surprise (ML 10-1)

C’s

None

# 4 Oh Brother Go (ML 5-1) and # 9 Rare Punch (ML 30-1) have been scratched.  Bring in the Also Eligible, # 13 Salt Power (ML 20-1) to help fill out the field.

Sidepocket Champ drops down for the lowest tag of his career.  Sidepocket Champ will also be losing the blinkers today; if that equipment change will help him relax in the early going and run hard late, he'll have a tremendous pace advantage against the rest of this field.

Coolington drops down in class and goes second off the layoff for Trainer Mike Puype, who shows a positive ROI with such.  Shakahari is also dropping in class, though it fair to wonder if Shakahari can ever regain the form that he showed last Spring.  Taken by Surprise has finished in the money twice in his last three races, all at this class level.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 3 Skylander (ML 3-1)

# 9 Corinthian's Song (ML 8-1)

B's

# 6 Fighter Squadron (ML 8-1)

C’s

None

Skylander has taken the Place in each of his two career races charging down the hill, both at this class level.  Corinthian's Song took the Show just a head behind Skylander last time out.  Fighter Squadron won last time out in his first try charging down the hill, against $32k open claimers.

# 1 Forest Chatter has looked impressive winning his last two contests.  But both of those events were in races restricted to California breds.  This is much tougher company, and I don't think Forest Chatter is ready to handle the rise in class, at least not yet.  Forest Chatter is the Morning Line Favorite in this race, so there are many who believe that he will win today.  If they're right and I'm wrong, then this ticket is a loser.

RACE 8 - (F) The Santa Margarita (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Warren's Veneda (ML 2-1)

B's

# 2 Cassatt (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

# 5 Tiz Midnight (ML 4-1) has been scratched.

Warren's Vaneda, a lifetime three-for-six over the Santa Anita main track, misses by just a head of entering this contest with a three race winning streak, all against stakes competition.  Cassatt, trained by Larry Jones, could win this one on the front end, especially with the scratch of Tiz Midnight.

RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 12 Paulina's Love (ML 7-2)

B's

# 5 Madam Aamoura (ML 6-1)

# 6 Show Stealer (ML 8-1)

# 10 Zip N Bayou (ML 4-1)

C’s

None

The Also Eligibles, # 13 Avenge (ML 4-1) and # 14 Redheads Rule (ML 3-1), don't draw in and get to spend the afternoon elsewhere.

Paulina's Love has finished in the money in each of her four tries at this class level, and has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in her last three contests.  Madam Aamoura took the Show (against stakes company) in her one prior try on the grass at today's distance.

Show Stealer, trained by Tom Proctor, has a late running style that may serve her well today in this field full of speed.  Zip N Bayou, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, tries flat grass for the first time after taking the Show charging down the hill her last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 3,9 with 7 with 12 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,6,8 with 3,6,9 with 2,7 with 5,6,10,12 $48.00

Total: $50.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:57 EDT / 2:57 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/8/15 SA R4 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

Among the many other events that went on this past weekend at The Great Race Place, on Sunday City Chapel, the longshot claim that we've been following, brought his act downstate from the Bay area.  Competing in Race 4 on March 8, City Chapel (Final Odds 1.70*) raced towards the rear in the backstretch, came five into the stretch, and proved himself to be second best in the field, crossing the wire four and three quarter lengths in front of Show horse Smart Ellis (9.70), but over three lengths behind the winner, Senor Rain (3.00).  For his Place finish City Chapel earned $4,200 in purse money for Owner and Trainer Victor Trujillo.

And with that race our following of City Chapel comes to an end; as City Chapel was claimed for the $12.5k price tag for which he ran, and now moves to the barn of Trainer Kelly Castaneda.  We charted City Chapel from the August 26, 2012 race in which he went to post at final odds of 29.80 and was claimed by Trujillo for $4k, through this past Sunday's contest; a total of thirty-five races that City Chapel ran for the Trujillo barn.  In those thirty-five races City Chapel finished in the money twenty-five times (7 Wins, 10 Place, 8 Show), bringing home a total of $119,925 in purse money.  Add in the $12.5k for which he sold Sunday, and that's a total return of $132,425 for the initial four thousand dollar claim.  Definitely a job well done by Trujillo.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/8/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 Rocko's Wheel (Final Odds 3.80) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Deputy Heat (3.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Las Flores - # 1 Harlington's Rose (5.00) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Perfect Temptation (3.80) - "A" Selection

We should have shown more confidence in Deputy Heat in the second leg and made him a single; and we spread way too wide in the finale.  But despite those errors, this was our day to collect rather than contribute.  

The correct Pick Four sequence of  4 / 3 / 1 / 2  paid $501.35 for a fifty cent wager.  I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/8/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Hope everyone remembered to turn their clocks ahead an hour (excepting, of course, those of you fortunate enough to live someplace that doesn't engage in such foolishness).  Keeping my action in SoCal on the day after Big Cap Day, and taking a run at The Late Pick Four.

RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Stormin Trick (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 4 Rocko's Wheel (ML 5-2)
# 7 Particleacelerator (ML 4-1)

C's

None

Stormin Trick made a nice move forward last time out in his second career start, taking the Place at this class level.  Rocko's Wheel returns to action for his second career start, having made his debut at Del Mar last September.  Trainer Phil D'Amato gets over twenty percent winners from both maidens making their second start and from runners returning from a greater than six month absence.  Particleacelerator is a first time starter sired by Cyclotron, whose progeny win at first asking approximately 12% of the time.  Note that Particleacelaerator also has the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field.

RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Deputy Heat (ML 4-1)

B's

# 7 Brother Soldier (ML 4-1)

C’s

None

# 2 Silver Torch (ML 7-2) has been scratched.  # 8 Visitation (No Line) was a program scratch; so # 13 Silent Ruler (ML 12-1) draws in off the Also Eligible List, while # 14 Burning (ML 20-1) gets to stay in the barn.

Deputy Heat broke his maiden against non-claimers in his turf debut, and was able to take the Show against open (non-conditioned) $35k claimers in his turf debut, and then defeated non-claiming maidens in his second career start on the grass.

Like Deputy Heat, Silver Torch graduated against non-claiming maidens on the grass.  But unlike Deputy Heat, Silver Torch has already failed four times at this class level; not enough failures (in my opinion) to make Silver Torch a toss out, but enough to put up a red flag that this may be a horse that is content to settle for minor awards.

Brother Soldier seems to be returning to the form that he showed last year when he took the Place against $80k optional claimers (N1X) in his turf debut.

RACE 8 - (F) The Las Flores (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Global Hottie (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Harlington's Rose (ML 4-1)

C’s

None

Global Hottie, trained by Bob Baffert, took a big step forward last time out in defeating OC $62k N2X company over this main track.  The question now is can she maintain that form against stakes company.  Harlington's Rose won The Kalookan Queen three starts back (defeating, among others, # 7 Tribal Gal (ML 5-2)) and took the Show in the Grade 2 Santa Monica two starts back; both over this main track.

RACE 9 - Md $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Perfect Temptation (ML 4-1)
# 5 Go Trumpy Go (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Paythebank (ML 12-1)
# 6 Vicious (ML 6-1)
# 7 Big Hat Charlie (ML 5-1)
# 8 Unusually Big (ML 6-1)
# 9 Ink Well (ML 12-1)
# 10 Passinaflash (ML 5-1)

C’s

None

The Also Eligibles, # 13 Southeast Asia (ML 20-1) and # 14 Midnight City (ML 15-1), don't draw in, and get to enjoy a day of rest.

Perfect Temptation and Go Trumpy Go both acquitted themselves well in their respective turf debuts charging down the hill last month.  Paythebank, also in that field, did not fare as well; but Paythebank is the only runner in this field with experience routing on the grass.

Vicious, Big Hat Charlie, Ink Well, and Passinaflash are all making their turf debuts while simultaneously dropping in for a tag for the first time.  Unusually Big is also making his debut on the grass.  Unusually Big's grandsire is Dynaformer, while his dam sire is Unusual Heat; so it's fair to presume that Unusually Big will improve with the switch to grass.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 3 with 2,5 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4,7 with 3,7 with 1,3 with 1,2,5,6,7,8,9,10 $48.00

Total: $50.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:57 EDT / 2:57 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/7/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Three year olds coast-to-coast will be prepping today for the first Saturday in May, as The Road to the Kentucky Derby makes stops in New York, Florida, and SoCal for The Gotham, The Tampa Bay Derby, and The San Felipe.  SoCal is where we'll  be playing today, as it's Big Cap Day at The Great Race Place, with the million dollar Santa Anita Handicap closing out Saturday's card.

RACE 8 - (F) The China Doll $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 She's a Big Winner (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 6 Lutine Belle (ML 8-1)

C’s

# 8 Bobbi Grace (ire) (ML 3-1)

# 9 Minks Aprise (No Line) was a program scratch.  # 10 Jaded Glory (ML 20-1) has also been scratched.

Turf sprints down the Santa Anita hill tend to favor runners coming off the pace.  She's a Big Winner has twice won against that type by charging down the hill and winning in races where she was within a length of the lead at first call, including last time out in The Sweet Life.  I don't think the switch to the flats nor the added distance today will present any problems for She's a Big Winner, and she should be quick enough to not have any traffic issues despite the inside draw.

Lutine Belle won The Blue Norther two starts back before her connections tried yet again to see if she could compete against Grade 1 company on real dirt.  If you toss those two Grade 1 dirt routes from her record then Lutine Belle has yet to finish out of the money in her career.

Bobbi Grace (Ire) has earned Beyer Speed Figures this year that have cycled up to the Beyers that she earned as a juvenile; a possible sign that she is ready to make a forward move today.

RACE 9 - The San Carlos (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Conquest Two Step (ML 5-2)

B's

# 7 Wild Dude (ML 3-1)

C’s

None

# 1 Chitu (ML 2-1) and # 8 Midnight Hawk (ML 6-1) have been scratched.

Conquest Two Step won The Grade 2 Palos Verdes last time out, crossing the wire three and a half lengths in front of Wild Dude, who took the Show.  Two starts back Conquest Two Step took the Place behind Shared Belief in the Grade 1 Mailbu, crossing the wire a half length in front of Chitu, who took the Show.  If Conquest Two Step runs back to his effort in those two events, then he should be the one getting his picture taken today.

Wild Dude is likely to improve in his second start of 2015 after the long layoff, though it's fair to wonder if Wild Dude's best days may be behind him.

RACE 10 - The Frank E Kilroe  Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Summer Front (ML 7-2)

# 9 Home Run Kitten (ML 8-1)

B's

# 3 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 4-1)

# 4 Holy Lute (ML 8-1)

# 11 Za Approval (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 6 Silentio (ML 8-1)

# 7 Mega Heat (ML 8-1)

# 10 Ring Weekend (ML 8-1)

# 1 Talco (Fr) (No Line) has been scratched.

There are eleven runners going to Post in this contest, and we've using eight of them.  So, yeah, it's fair to say that I consider this event to be pretty wide open.

Summer Front has been performing well against much stiffer competition, so despite this being a Grade 1 event one could make the point that Summer Front is getting some class relief here.  Home Run Kitten has finished in the money in eight of his nine career starts on the Santa Anita grass, and may move forward with the rider change to Gary Stevens.

Winning Prize (Arg) was the winner of this event last year, and that's an angle that should be respected.  More pointedly, Winning Prize is the only runner in this contest to show a Grade 1 win in any of their previous ten starts.

Holy Lute has been markedly improved since moving from dirt to turf.  Za Approval seems to be rounding back into top form.

Silentio should improve with the return to eight furlongs.  Mega Heat is a lifetime five-for-ten on the Santa Anita turf.  Ring Weekend, winner of a pair of Grade 3's on the turf in New York, seems to prefer a softer footing.

RACE 11 - The Santa Anita Handicap (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Shared Belief (ML 3-5)

B's

None

C’s

None

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet." - Damon Runyon

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in an abbreviated Crist fashion in which we eventually get all the runners onto a single ticket, we get:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 2 with 4 with 8,9 with 5 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 4,7 with 3,4,8,9,11 with 5 $10.00

All A Entries with All B Entries with All C Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,6,8 with 4,7 with 3,4,6,7,8,9,10,11 with 5 $24.00

Total: $38.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 6:30 EST / 3:30 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/1/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results

Race 4 - # 5 Moonshine Bay (Final Odds 2.60) - No Selection
Race 5 - # 4 Morning Storm (6.90) No Selection
Race 6 - # 3 Blu Jon (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 I Will Follow (4.50) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 9 Aalsmeer (2.10) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Estellara (27.70) - No Selection

We were only able to get one out of six, and that one was the only Post Time Favorite in the sequence to cross the wire first.  When you have a day like that, about the only thing there is to do is to say,

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Six sequence of  5 / 4 / 3 / 6 / 9 / 2  were, well, non-existent.  No one picked six.  No one.  So, for today, those who correctly picked five of the six winners were rewarded with a payout of $576.90 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

3/1/15 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview

More rain is forecast for Sunday in SoCal, so let's just keep it in the Bay Area and take another crack at Golden Gate's Golden Pick Six.

RACE 4 - OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Califo Cat (Morning Line 3-1)

C’s

None

Califo Cat misses by just a length of entering this contest with a four race winning streak.  This is a step up the class ladder for Califo Cat, but he's accomplished all that he can at the ALW N1X level, and the Beyer Speed Figures that he's been been earning of late fit with the contenders at this class level.

RACE 5 - Clm $4k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Tudor Blue (ML 7-2)
# 6 Simply Sharp (ML 6-5)
# 7 Sidepocket Lou (ML 15-1)

C’s

None

The conditions for this one limit it to runners that have not won a race since Dec 15, 2014, OR which have never won four races in their career.

Tudor Blue and Simply Sharp each took the Place in their respective last out race at this class level.  Sidepocket Lou drew the Number One Post Position in four of his last five races; in the one race in which he didn't draw the rail, Sidepocket Lou missed by just a length of winning at this class level.

RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Blue Jon (ML 9-5)
# 4 Malibu Rum (ML 8-1)
# 5 Funny How (ML 3-1)
# 6 Six Votes (ML 7-2)

C’s

None

# 7 Pocket Prince (ML 15-1) has been scratched.

Blue Jon has finished in the Exacta in all three of his contests on the Golden Gate main track.  Blue Jon defeated more expensive last time out; but those were conditioned claimers (N2X) while this is open; so this is closer to a lateral move than a true drop.

Malibu Rum, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, appears to be rounding into form, having earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last three races.  Funny How has missed winning by a length or less in each of his last two starts, both at this class level.  Six Votes won by a nose at this class level last time out.

RACE 7 - Clm $16k N3L - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Justa Splash (ML 2-1)
# 3 Mr. Disipline (ML 5-2)
# 4 Fantastic Atticus (ML 5-1)
# 7 Valentino Bill (ML 15-1)

C’s

None

Justa Splash and Mr. Disipline were both recent winners at the $12.5k N2L level (Mr. Disipline last time out; Justa Splash two back) and both earned Beyer Speed Figures in the course of their respective victories that fit well at this class level.  Fantastic Atticus drops in for the lowest tag of his career.  Valentino Bill has proven to be competitive at this class level.

RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 6 Elmonte Cristo (ML 2-1)

C's

None

Elmonte Cristo, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Russell Baze, won at this class level two starts back (the conditions allow him to take another crack at the ALW N1X level because he is a California bred).  Elmonte Cristo is a lifetime three-for-seven over the Golden Gate main track.

RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Thru the Ages (ML 12-1)
# 3 Ekatitude (ML 8-1)
# 5 One Gun (ML 2-1)
# 6 Lady Harbinger (ML 6-1)
# 9 Dolly (ML 4-1)
# 10 Spot Special (ML 10-1)

C's

None

One Gun took the Place as the Post Time Favorite last time out; Lady Harbinger took the show behind her.  Thru the Ages, Ekatitude, Dolly, and Spot Special are the four first time starters in this field.  All four have been working well for this one, and there doesn't appear to be a standout among the experienced runners.

OK, that's the analysis.  Everything's an "A" Selection and goes on a single ticket, because what better way to find out whether or not this is the luckiest day of our lives.  So with that we get:

All A Entries

$0.20 P6: 4 with 3,6,7 with 3,4,5,6 with 2,3,4,7 with 6 with 1,3,5,6,9,10 $57.60

Total: $57.60

Post Time for Race 4 is 5:12 EST / 2:12 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo