8/27/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 4 Lexington Humor (Final Odds 3.40) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 2 Fashionably Fast (15.70) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - The Pat O'Brien - # 7 Laurel River (6.90) - "C" Selection

Race 10 - # 4 Border Town (1.90*) - "C" Selection

I had the right idea in Saturday's featured race (Race 9) in that I correctly decided to fade # 8 Speaker's Corner (1.10*) at short odds.  I wanted to mention that here, because it was one of the few correct decisions that I made Saturday, as can be discerned from the number of "C" Selections listed above among the sequence's winners.  But it's just as well that I made multiple incorrect decisions, because when it comes to The Late Pick Four, if you miss one or if you miss them all, the result will be the same.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 2 / 7 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $979.45 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/27/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

"Doubt kills more dreams than failure ever will." - Suzy Kassem

The Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes is Saturday's featured race in Southern California; a contest that comes with the pot sweetener of a free entry to the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile to the winner.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Shes'a Perfectlady (Morning Line 5-1)

B’s

# 3 Iconic Sky (ML 6-1)

# 4 Lexington Humor (ML 5-1)

# 8 Woodbine Way (ML 9-2)

# 11 Baby Steps (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Tom's Beauty (ML 8-1)

# 5 Over Attracted (ML 20-1)

# 6 Get On the Bus (ML 8-1)

# 7 Del Mar Drama (ML 10-1)

# 10 Canam Gal (ML 20-1)

# 12 Fulminate (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 9 Champagne Camie (No Line)

I'm not sure why, but the Past Performances that I have give this as an N2X (non-winners of two races lifetime other than etc., etc., etc); but, clearly, the claiming price and a full read of the conditions leave little doubt that this is an N1X contest.  Be that as it may, the only entrant in this field that is up for sale for the $40k claiming price is Fulminate.

Shes'a Perfectlady returns from a five month vacation, bringing with her a three race winning streak.  Anticipate Shes'a Perfectlady to be doing her best running late.

Iconic Sky moves up to open company from state bred only contests; but Iconic Sky has defeated open company in the past, and Open Sky has shown that she can win by either coming off the pace or by leading the field from gate to wire.

Lexington Humor took the Place at this class level last time out, albeit on the main track.  Woodbine Way and Baby Steps filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level over this turf course last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - OC 80k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Apprehend (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 4 Letsgetlucky (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Desmond Doss (ML 4-1)

# 2 Fashionably Fast (ML 5-1)

# 3 Kid Corleone (ML 5-2)

# 5 Tigre Di Slugo (ML 12-1)

# 7 Howbeit (ML 12-1)

For those who note such things, the only entrant in this field that will leave the gate with the $80k price tag on his head is Howbeit.  Apprehend took the Place at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.

Letsgetlucky earned a Graded Stakes Placing in each of his last two starts.  So why isn't Letsgetlucky top choice here?  Good question.  My concern with Letsgetlucky is that all three of his career Wins have been against state bred only company.  Letsgetlucky has yet to defeat runners that were not Cal bred.  Now, that could just be a fluke, a result of where Letsgetlucky's connections have chosen to enter him, rather than an accurate representation of Letsgetlucky's abilities.  Still, I'll trust my gut here, using Letsgetlucky on the main ticket but not on the "All A Entries" ticket.  As to the rest of the field, I'll be using those as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 9 - The Pat O'Brien (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 4 American Theorem (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 C Z Rocket (ML 15-1)

C's

# 2 Principe Carlo (ML 15-1)
# 3 Restrainedvengence (ML 30-1)
# 5 Get Her Number (ML 8-1)

# 6 The Chosen Vron (ML 12-1)

# 7 Laurel River (ML 5-1)

# 8 Speaker's Corner (ML 6-5)

# 9 Defunded (ML 8-1)

# 10 Senor Buscador (ML 30-1)

So Speaker's Corner was chased out of New York.  After having to settle for the Show in the Grade 1 Met Mile at Belmont Park behind Flightline, followed by having to take the Place against Life is Good in the Grade 2 John A Nerud at Saratoga, Speaker's Corner's connections decided to go west with their young colt, in the hopes that Speaker's Corner will be able to punch his ticket to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile against lesser competition in Southern California.

And perhaps Speaker's Corner will find his foes at Del Mar to be far from formidable, and cruise with ease into the winner's circle Saturday.  It certainly would come as a surprise to no one were that to come to pass.  But I've chosen to be contrarian in this leg, and to fade Speaker's Corner at what I expect will be ridiculously short odds.

American Theorem has proven himself capable of winning Graded Stakes at nice odds, and there's no reason to doubt that American Theorem can do it again Saturday.  C Z Rocket won this event back in 2020, and I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for prior victors attempting to emerge again as winners of a specific Graded Stakes.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field, which includes Speaker's Corner.

RACE 10 - Clm $32k N1Y - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Sword Zorro (Ire) (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 5 Cono (ML 7-2)

# 6 Ted (ML 6-1)

# 10 Cane Creek Road (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Cleopatra's Strike (ML 8-1)
# 2 Theshold (ML 15-1)
# 4 Border Town (ML 4-1)

# 7 Table for Ten (ML 15-1)

# 8 Prodigal Son (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 3 Ottawa Fire (Ire) (ML 15-1)

This contest is restricted to runners which have not won a race this year (2022, for those who may have forgotten).

Sword Zorro (Ire) last got his picture taken a little over a year ago, when he won the photo to claim victory in the Grade 3 La Jolla.  Normally dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time would qualify a Graded Stakes winner as a big ticket single; especially against conditioned, rather than open, claimers.

But since becoming a Graded Stakes winner, Sword Zorro has yet to make his way into the Trifecta, let alone visit the winner's circle.  Granted, this field is going to be considerably weaker than any that Sword Zorro has faced over the prior twelve months.  But rather than singling Sword Zorro, I've decided in the name of caution to spread a bit in this leg.

Cono acquitted himself well in his 2022 debut last time out, pressing the pace against more expensive stock until running out of gas in the stretch.  Ted and Can Creek Road can be expected to via for prominence through the early going.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 6 with 4 with 9 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,8,11 with 4,6 with 1,4 with 5,6,9,10 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,5,6,7,10,12 with 6 with 4 with 9 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,3,5,7 with 4 with 9 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10 with 9 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 6 with 4 with 1,2,4,7,8 $2.50

Total: $53.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:03 EDT / 5:03 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/20/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 10 Kangaroo Court (Final Odds 0.20*) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - The Del Mar Oaks - # 11 Spendarella (1.20*) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - # 6 High Heater (6.30) - "C" Selection

Race 10 - # 10 Belle Cherie (12.90) - "B" Selection

Few things in life are as frustrating as trying to beat the Favorite only to watch them win for fun.  Yes, I had both Kangaroo Court and Spendarella on my main ticket.  But I singled neither (let alone both) of Kangaroo Court and Spendarella; indeed, I used quite a few runners in those first two legs attempting to get a price.  Perhaps better management of the first half of the sequence would have allowed me to spread further in the third leg and find High Heater.

But, then again, perhaps not.  With horse racing, you never know.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  10 / 11 / 6 / 10  were rewarded with a payout of $197.95 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/20/22 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview

“Success in life has nothing to do with what you gain or accomplish for yourself.  It's what you do for others.” - Danny Thomas

Changing it up a bit Saturday, as I move my action from just outside Toronto to just outside San Diego.  The featured race Saturday in Southern California is the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks; a contest that is either real easy or very complex.  More on that below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 7 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Regulation Dazed (Morning Line 10-1)

B's

# 9 Stay in the Game (ML 8-1)

# 10 Kangaroo Court (ML 6-5)

C's

# 3 Reign of Speed (ML 6-1)
# 4 Vince's Corner (ML 20-1)

# 5 Thirsty Pappy (ML 20-1)

# 6 Duty First (ML 8-1)

# 7 Mentirosa (ML 20-1)

# 8 Eddie's Last (ML 15-1)

# 11 Tom Horn (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 1 Buck Owens (No Line) and # 12 Santiago's Cat (ML 20-1)

These are juveniles that can either be California bred or California sired; which is why Duty First, despite being a Kentucky bred runner, is eligible to run here.  Duty First was sired by Smiling Tiger, who stands at Harris Farms, in Coalinga, CA.

Regulation Dazed is a debut runner sired by Square Eddie, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.  Stay in the Game took the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts.  Kangaroo Court took the Place after doing all the heavy lifting in his debut last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) The Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 11 Spendarella (ML 8-5)

B's

# 2 Bellabel (Ire) (ML 5-1)

# 5 Cairo Memories (ML 3-1)

# 6 Tezzaray (GB) (ML 20-1)

# 9 Txope (Fr) (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Island of Love (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 4 Lucky Girl (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 7 Sixteen Arches (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 8 Gracelund Gray (ML 15-1)

# 10 Gold Dragon Queen (ML 50-1)

# 12 Ballet Dancing (ML 20-1)

# 13 Lady T (ML 20-1)
# 14 Lady Clementine (GB) (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 1 Rhea Moon (Ire) (ML 30-1)

As I mentioned in the introduction above, this race is either very easy or very complex.  If Spendarella runs to form, then there's little hope for the rest of the field.  But this will be Spendarella's first time competing beyond eight furlongs.  In addition, there are quite a few speedsters in this field, which should insure that Spendarella will not have things all her own way in the early going.

Bellabel (Ire) enters this event with a three race winning streak, including a victory in the Grade 2 San Clemente over this turf course last time out.  Cairo Memories found ten furlongs too long a row to hoe last time out.  Cairo Memories should improve with the cutback in distance.

Tezzaray (GB) ran in the Grade 2 San Clemente last time out like a horse that needed a race: anxious to run early, out of gas long before the wire.  I expect Tezzaray to return to the form and running style that she showed as a juvenile when she won the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante over this turf course.

Txope (Fr) showed good form while winning the Group 2 German One Thousand Guineas last time out; and Txope could find herself in the winner's circle today if she can repeat that effort.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - Clm $12.5k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Secret Touch (ML 5-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 Outright (ML 15-1)

# 3 Dr. Troutman (ML 4-1)

# 4 Gray Magician (ML 7-2)

# 5 Little Demon (ML 5-2)

# 6 High Heater (ML 5-1)

# 7 Hapi Hapi (ML 12-1)

# 8 Active Account (ML 30-1)

# 9 Mariners Way (ML 30-1)
# 10 Of Good Report (ML 12-1)

Secret Touch showed good early foot against more expensive stock last time out.  Secret Touch will also be going first off the claim for Trainer Steve Knapp, who tends to do well with such.  Finally, Secret Touch has demonstrated an affinity for Del Mar, with five of his seven career Wins coming over this main track.

So I'll be using Secret Touch solo on my main ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - (F) MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Infinite Empire (ML 6-1)

B's

# 2 Maeve of Connaught (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 6 Vivando (ML 7-2)

# 7 Takemebythehand (GB) (ML 8-1)

# 8 Wistfully (ML 20-1)

# 10 Belle Cherie (ML 10-1)

# 11 Albayaader (Ire) (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 First Point (ML 20-1)

# 3 Leisurewear (Ire) (ML 4-1)

# 4 Hardly Mischievous (ML 8-1)

# 9 Quick Romance (ML 50-1)

# 12 Wishing On a Star (ML 12-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 13 Jubilee Lake (GB) (ML 8-1)

Infinite Empire should be much improved with the surface switch.  Maeve of Connaught (Ire) looked sharp in her final work for this event, suggesting that Maeve of Connaught could upset in this, her 2022 debut.

Vivando took the Place at this class level in both of her two most recent starts.  Takemebythehand (GB) could move up going second off the layoff.  Wistfully, a first time starter by Tapit out of a Storm Cat mare, looks well meant here.

Belle Cherie could move up getting back onto some California grass.  Albayaader (Ire) could surprise with a cleaner trip.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 11 with 2 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,9,10 with 2,5,6,9,11 with 2 with 2,5,6,7,8,10,11 $52.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,6,7,8,11 with 11 with 2 with 5 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,4,7,8,10,12,13,14 with 2 with 5 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 11 with 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 with 5 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 11 with 2 with 1,3,4,9,12 $2.50

Total: $68.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:04 EDT / 5:04 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/14/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The Seagram Cup - # 2 War Bomber (Ire) (Final Odds 18.20) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - The Bison City - # 2 Sister Seagull (1.70*) - "A" Selection

Race 10 - # 6 Dotted Line (1.45*) - "B" Selection

Race 11 - # 5 Bohemian Boy (2.40*) - "B" Selection

Watching the Post Time Favorite emerge victorious is not what a player wishes to see when they punch the "ALL" button, as I did in the third leg (Race 10) Sunday.  For that matter, having the Post Time Favorite win a contest where I went five deep, as was the case in the nightcap, suggests that I did a somewhat less than superior job of handicapping that event.  Still, it's difficult for me to be overly critical of my mistakes on a day when I was fortunate enough to catch a nice price in the opener, and then follow through with selecting the subsequent winners in the sequence.

For the record, here are the $0.20 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 1 Embrace My Uncle (18.00) - $698.16 Finish: 10th

# 2 Nashtrick (4.50) - $225.03 Finish: 3rd

# 4 Ron’s Gizmo (10.35) - $337.59 Finish: 4th

# 11 Big Executive (10.00) - $559.22 Finish: 8th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  2 / 2 / 6 / 5  which paid $115.02 for a twenty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $75.42 on my initial $39.60 investment, or approximate odds of 1.90-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

8/14/22 Woodbine Late Pick Four - Preview

“Successful people appreciate where they have come from, but they don’t let their past set the tone for their future.  Successful people are innovators.” - Steve Harvey

The oppressive heat in the Toronto area caused the cancellation of Woodbine's card last Sunday; but thank the good Lord all looks to be well this week, with a very fine program on tap.  Contests on the card include a pair of stakes; and I'll be taking a look at both of those events below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Woodbine.

RACE 8 - The Seagram Cup (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Frosted Over (Morning Line 2-1)

B's

# 2 War Bomber (Ire) (ML 10-1)

# 9 Tap It to Win (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Cash Dividend (ML 12-1)

# 5 Clayton (ML 12-1)

# 6 Artie's Storm (ML 5-2)

# 7 Carrothers (ML 15-1)

# 8 Special Forces (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 3 Haddassah (ML 8-1)

Frosted Over, winner of the Grade 3 Dominion Day the last time that he competed on a synthetic surface, should appreciate the return to the main track.  War Bomber (Ire) could be the one running best late.  Tap It to Win won last year's running of this event, and I'm always a sucker for the defending champ in a Graded Stakes.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) [S] The Bison City $250k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Sister Seagull (ML 7-5)

B's

# 1 Strega (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Lady Brew (ML 12-1)
# 4 Pioneer's Edge (ML 8-5)
# 5 Souper Flashy (ML 7-2)

These are all three year old Ontario bred fillies.  Were I thinking more clearly, I would probably make Sister Seagull, Place finisher in the $500k Woodbine Oaks last time out, a big ticket single in this contest.  But I like the possibility of Strega being loose on the lead, especially with the rail draw.  So it's two deep for me in this leg, with the rest of the runners being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 10 - Clm $25k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Epilogue (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 3 Decimator (ML 8-1)

# 4 Maximus Momentus (ML 6-1)

# 5 Ikerrin Road (Ire) (ML 9-2)

# 6 Dotted Line (ML 3-1)

# 7 Timeskip (ML 12-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 1 Take a Chance (ML 5-2)

Nothing like the scratch of the Morning Line Favorite to make you have to redo all your prior work.  Epilogue looks best here, his last win having come at today's distance at this class level.  Maximus Momentus disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out.  Perhaps the cutback in distance will benefit Maximus Momentus today.

Ikerrin Road (Ire) is getting some much needed class relief here.  Dotted Line, despite not being all that quick, could be the one leading the field through the early going.  You know what?  This is too much work for a Sunday morning.  I'm just going to go "ALL" in this leg and move on.

RACE 11 - OC 32k/N1X - Seven Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Nashtrick (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 1 Embrace My Uncle (ML 6-1)

# 4 Ron's Gizmo (ML 12-1)

# 5 Bohemian Boy (ML 3-1)

# 11 Big Executive (ML 15-1)

C's

# 3 Dragon's Brew (ML 15-1)

# 6 Downey Boy (ML 9-2)

# 8 Basketball Jones (ML 4-1)

# 9 Desolator (ML 20-1)
# 10 Workin Out (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 7 Wave Baby (ML 10-1)

For those who note such things, Dragon's Brew is the only entrant in this field that will be competing with the $32k price tag on his head.

Nashtrick took a bit of a step back last time out; but Nashtrick could improve today with the cutback in distance.  Embrace My Uncle was a daylight winner last time out (albeit for different connections), suggesting that Embrace My Uncle could handle the jump in class.

Ron's Gizmo regressed last time out; perhaps Ron's Gizmo will improve going third off the layoff.  Bohemian Boy missed the winner's circle by just a neck last time out at today's class level.

Big Executive disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out against more expensive stock.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 2 with 2 with 2 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P4: 2,4,9 with 1,2 with ALL with 1,2,4,5,11 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P4: 1,5,6,7,8 with 2 with 2 with 2 $1.00

$0.20 P4: 4 with 3,4,5 with 2 with 2 $0.60

$0.20 P4: 4 with 2 with 2 with 3,6,8,9,10 $1.00

Total: $39.60

Post Time for Race 8 is 4:46 EDT / 1:46 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo