Saturday, June 30, 2018

6/30/18 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 4 Tough Timber (Final Odds 4.10) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Son of the South (8.80) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Midnight Ming (6.00) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Know Pepper (3.50) - "C" Selection

Those who employ the light bulb handicapping angle (that is, betting a horse that broke its maiden last time out after having failed to graduate quite a few times previously) were no doubt all over Son of the South in the second leg; and congrats to them, as they were well rewarded.  For myself, I had seen that Son of the South had hit the board only once in his prior ten tries on a Fast dirt track, and thought therefore that it was safe to exclude him from my play.  I was mistaken.

Of course, whiffing on Son of the South was not the only error in my analysis Saturday.  Indeed, none of my four "A" Selections were able to find their way into the Exacta, let alone the Winner's Circle.  Still, I take some solace in the fact that the wagering public did not fare much better than I with the sequence; as not only did all four Post Time Favorites fail to win, only one, # 7 Tune to Win (1.90*) in the second leg, was able to gain the Place.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 6 / 6 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $1,038.20 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/30/18 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Preview

The Juan Gonzalez Memorial Stakes is the featured race Saturday at the Alameda County Fairgrounds.  That event is carded for the first half of the program, and therefore (unfortunately) will not be a part of the analysis below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oak Tree at Pleasanton.

RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Flash Henry (Morning Line 3-1)

B’s

# 1 Aberdeen Island (ML 9-2)
# 2 Candy's Martini (ML 8-1)
# 4 Tough Timber (ML 5-1)

C's

# 5 The Common Man (ML 6-1)
# 6 Simply Charming (ML 7-2)

# 7 Looks Good N a Tux (ML 4-1)

Flash Henry, a two time winner over a Fast dirt track, took the Place at this approximate class level (lower claiming price, but no conditions) last time out.  Aberdeen Island could improve with a return to dirt.

Candy's Martini could benefit from the cutback in distance.  Tough Timber has finished in the Exacta five of the six times that he has competed over a Fast dirt track.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Zippy Groom (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Robs Lucky Spirit (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Playing Through (ML 5-1)
# 7 Tune to Win (ML 7-2)

Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; no exceptions.  No entrant in this field has more than one career Win.

Zippy Groom is the only entrant in this field whose solo victory came over a Fast dirt track.  Robs Lucky Spirit could move up with the surface switch.  Playing Through took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit on some California grass.  Tune to Win has run well in the past when competing on real dirt.

RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 2 Southern Thunder (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 Crystal Dome (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 4 Drouillard (ML 4-1)
# 9 Sweet River Baines (ML 5-1)

C's

# 5 It's The Ice (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 7 Gabo's Macondo (ML 8-1)


Southern Thunder could improve with the return to dirt.  Crystal Dome (GB) may move up trying a different surface for the first time.  Drouillard has finished in the Exacta in each of his last three races.  Sweet River Baines missed victory by just a nose at this class level last time out, albeit while sprinting on the synthetic.

It's The Ice (GB) took the Show at this class level on the turf last time out.  Gabo's Macondo fits well here on class, though Gabo's Macondo didn't show much in his only previous race on dirt.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $5k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Gal Factor (ML 2-1)

B's

# 1 Angel Tears (ML 20-1)
# 9 Out Trump'd Her (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Know Pepper (ML 7-2)
# 4 Shadow Affair (ML 20-1)
# 5 Astorian Queen (ML 8-1)
# 6 Misleading (ML 15-1)


Gal Factor goes first off the claim for Trainer Ari Herbertson, who tends to do well with such.  Angel Tears took the Show against more expensive stock last time out (albeit over the synthetic) and could move up with the change of barn.  

Know Pepper, Shadow Affair, and Out Trump'd Her have each finished in the Trifecta in common races of late at this class level.  I moved Out Trump'd Her to the main ticket because she'll be trying a Fast dirt track for the first time, and she may take to the surface.

Astorian Queen is a first time starter for Trainer Steve Sherman that has shown absolutely nothing in her morning workouts over the synthetic track at Golden Gate Fields; maybe she'll go faster on real dirt.  Misleading may improve with her first try over a Fast dirt track.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 8 with 2 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4 with 1,8 with 2,3,4,9 with 1,8,9 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5,6,7 with 8 with 2 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,7 with 2 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 8 with 5,7 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 8 with 2 with 2,4,5,6 $2.00

Total: $54.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 7:15 EDT / 4:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Friday, June 29, 2018

6/29/18 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 4 Daddy Duke (Final Odds 3.50) - "C" Selection
Race 6 - # 1 Spicy Feline (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 A Little Bit Cocky (5.70) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Puriano (7.40) - "C" Selection

I'm just going to say that I needed one over the track, and that I hope to improve next time out.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 1 / 2 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $828.45 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/29/18 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Preview

Getting a head start on the weekend by taking a swing at Friday's card at Alameda County Fairgrounds.  I've moved my action upstate because, as can be read here, Los Alamitos has decided to double the minimum wager for The Late Pick Four.  Needless to say, I have no intention of doubling my wagering budget; nor do I intend to start randomly tossing out runners that I think have legitimate chances to win.  So having been priced out of the game at Los Al, I've decided to spend my wagering dollars outside of Southern California; at least until Del Mar opens.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Oak Tree at Pleasanton.

RACE 5 - Clm $4k N2Y - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Tiz Titus (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Union Wine (ML 10-1)
# 3 Danas Best (Aus) (ML 5-1)
# 6 Gurnick (ML 4-1)

# 7 Lucky Views (ML 6-1)

C's

# 4 Daddy Duke (ML 3-1)
# 5 A P Phantom (ML 8-1)

This contest is for runners three year olds and upward that have not won two races in 2018.

Tiz Titus has finished in the Trifecta against classier foes in each of his last three races, and has finished in the money in half of his dirt starts.  Union Wine has run well in the past over Fast dirt tracks.  Danas Best (Aus) and Lucky Views are two last out winners who have previously run well over this main track.

Gurnick has finished in the Trifecta in all four of his previous starts on a Fast dirt track.  Grunick could also move up with the drop in class.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Spicy Feline (ML 3-1)
# 8 Stellarium (ML 6-1)

B's

# 4 Little Moo (ML 9-2)
# 9 Ron's Cat (ML 8-1)

C's

# 5 Breaking the Code (ML 4-1)
# 6 Zahra (ML 10-1)

These are juvenile fillies, and man oh man, the temptation is great to just punch the "ALL" button.  I decided to make a few eliminations; but those who are faint of heart and long in bankroll are encouraged to just buy this leg and move on.

Spicy Feline took the Place in her debut last time out over the synthetic main track at Golden Gate.  Stellarium and Breaking the Code are two first time starters trained by Greg James.  I give the edge to Stellarium, purchased at auction as a yearling for $32k, because Stellarium's sire, Jimmy Creed, has done well with regard to making debut winners; while Stellarium's dam, Stellaluna, has already produced two winners from three starters.

Little Moo and Ron's Cat filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta last time out over this main track.  Zahra was sired by two time Graded Stakes winner Daaher, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.

RACE 7 - Md $16k - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 I'm an Eight (ML 5-2)

B's

# 4 Imalocomotive (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 A Little Bit Cocky (ML 9-2)
# 5 Bryan Habana (Arg) (ML 12-1)
# 7 Senja (ML 6-1)

I'm an Eight has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last six starts, without being the Post Time Favorite in any of them, suggesting that he has consistently run better than expected.  Imalocomotive could move up with the stretch out in distance.

A Little Bit Cocky has been a consistent money burning, disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in five of his nine career starts.  But perhaps the move to a Fast dirt track will change things up for A Little Bit Cocky.

Bryan Habana (Arg), shipping in from downstate, could improve with the change of scenery.  Senja has taken the Show in two of his last three starts, albeit on the turf.

RACE 8 - Clm $20k N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Paynes Prairie (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 3 Jimmy the Juice (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Country Road (ML 3-1)
# 2 John Paul's Bet (ML 9-2)
# 5 Puriano (ML 8-1)
# 7 Cannonball Comin (ML 4-1)
# 8 Son of a Minister (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 4 Chanted (ML 5-1)

Paynes Prairie was a clear winner over the Fast dirt track at Fresno last time out, and Trainer Jonathan Wong tends to do well when bringing his runners back from an extended vacation.  Jimmy the Juice tends to do well when competing over a real dirt track.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 1,8 with 3 with 6 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6,7 with 1,4,8,9 with 3,4 with 3,6 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 1,8 with 3 with 6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 3 with 6 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,8 with 2,5,7 with 6 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,8 with 3 with 1,2,5,7,8 $5.00

Total: $53.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:15 EDT / 4:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, June 24, 2018

6/24/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - # 8 Just Grazed Me (Final Odds 1.50) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Wilshire - # 7 Storm the Hill (9.50) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 3 Desert Law (3.80) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 2 Unapologetic (6.40) - "C" Selection

So one day after capturing four Aces, not a single "A" Selection of mine was able to find the Winner's Circle.  If it does nothing else for you, this game will certainly keep you humble.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  8 / 7 / 3 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $360.50 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/24/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

And so we make it to the final day of the Half a Year Meet in Arcadia, with a very fine card and a very fine featured race in the form of the Grade 3 Whilshire.  So let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 8 - (F) [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Coco Kisses (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 2 Chasin Lucas (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Sunrise Royale (ML 6-1)
# 5 Thalia (ML 4-1)

# 7 Whoa Nessie (ML 8-1)

Coco Kisses has twice taken the Place at this class level in her four race career, and should benefit nicely from the return to one turn racing.  Chasin Lucas took the Place in her debut at this class level last time out.

Sunrise Royale closed well enough in her debut last time out to warrant consideration even with the class jump.  Thalia didn't show much in her debut on the turf last time out; perhaps things will change with the move to the main track.  Whoa Nessie took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit while charging down the Santa Anita hill.

RACE 9 - (F) The Wilshire (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 9 Ancient Secret (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 5 Sophie (GB) (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Sassy Little Lila (ML 6-1)
# 6 Cordiality (ML 6-1)


Beau Recall (Ire) and Sophie (GB) have taken turfs defeating each other in Graded Stakes over the past couple of months.  Ancient Secret has shown steady improvement in each of her 2018 starts, and should hold her form switching to the flats.

Sassy Little Lila should be forwardly early, and could improve off the freshening.  Cordiality should also show early foot and could wire the field if she gets clear.

RACE 10 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Best Two Minutes (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 River Echo (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 3 Desert Law (ML 6-1)
# 7 K Thirty Eight (ML 15-1)

C's

# 4 So Conflated (ML 6-1)
# 5 Aristocratic (ML 3-1)

Scratch # 6 Adens Dream (ML 4-1)

Best Two Minutes goes first off the claim for Trainer Richard Baltas, who tends to do well with such.  River Echo (GB) took the Show at this class level last time out, and could benefit from the cutback in real estate.

Desert Law took the Place at this class level last time out.  K Thirty Eight might benefit from the class drop.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 11 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Beach View (ML 7-2)
# 7 Ritzy A. P. (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 1 Ann Arbor Eddie (ML 6-1)
# 6 Oscar Dominguez (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 8 Acker (ML 6-1)
# 9 Play Hard to Get (ML 15-1)

C's

# 2 Unapologetic (ML 4-1)
# 3 Ya Gotta Wanna (ML 8-1)

# 4 Taniko (ML 20-1)
# 10 Voador Magee (Brz) (ML 12-1)

Beach View and Ritzy A. P. were a neck apart at the wire while filling out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last month.  Ann Arbor Eddie has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two contests.

Oscar Dominguez (Ire) goes second off the claim for Trainer Jack Carava, who tends to do well with such.  Acker goes third off the layoff for Trainer Peter Miller, who tends to do well with such.  Play Hard to Get won at this class level earlier this meet.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 9 with 2 with 5,7 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 1,5,9 with 1,2,3,7 with 1,5,6,7,8,9 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,5,7 with 9 with 2 with 5,7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,6 with 2 with 5,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 9 with 4,5 with 5,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 9 with 2 with 2,3,4,10 $2.00

Total: $83.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 7:20 EDT / 4:20 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, June 23, 2018

6/23/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - # 11 Michael Mundo (Final Odds 11.80) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 5 Cool Green (2.20) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - The San Carlos - # 4 American Anthem (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - # 2 Our Slick Chick (3.50) - "A" Selection

And that's why you press up your top selections.

Granted, it wasn't a very economical play.  Despite my pre-race protestations, it looks like I really did have a handle on the opening leg, thus making going "ALL" in quite unnecessary.  And American Anthem's victory in the San Carlos (albeit by just a head) made the backup "C" Selections an un-needed expenditure.  But, of course, it's always much easier to know how you should have played your hand once all the cards are exposed.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other five runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 5 Chalky (Ire) (3.90) - $305.70 Finish: 4th
# 6 Temple Princess (1.60*) - $252.65 Finish: 2nd
# 7 Conformation (6.20) - $454.85 Finish: 7th
# 8 Trophy Bridle (11.80) - $825.95 Finish: 5th
# 9 Majestic Design (9.10) - $1,601.65 Finish: 6th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  11 / 5 / 4 / 2  which paid $390.45 for a fifty cent wager.  Since I had it three times I collect $1,171.35.  That makes for a profit of $1,096.35 on my initial $75 investment, or approximate odds of 14.62-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/23/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The San Carlos, a one turn sprint for three year olds and upward, is Saturday's featured race in Arcadia.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 9 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 11 Michael Mundo (Morning Line 8-1)
# 12 Hayne's Pal (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Friendly Steve (ML 5-1)
# 2 Write Me a Song (ML 6-1)
# 3 Senditlikechilly (ML 6-1)
# 4 Cyclolite (ML 50-1)
# 5 Hesgotawaywithwrds (ML 15-1)
# 6 Irish Ballad (ML 30-1)
# 8 Brighton Boy (ML 4-1)
# 9 Great Commission (ML 50-1)
# 10 Imagineiamfastest (ML 8-1)


C's

None

Scratch # 7 Cee's Wild (ML 10-1); but don't bring in either Also Eligible, # 13 Seattle Encounter (ML 12-1) or # 14 Count Your Steps (ML 20-1), as they are scratched as well.

God bless you if you know who's going to win Race 9 at Santa Anita Saturday; because I sure don't.  Two here are first time starters; seven of the experienced runners in this field were ten lengths or more back of the winner in their most recent start.

Michael Mundo was the only entrant who managed to finish in the Superfecta last time out.  Hayne's Pal broke well in his debut last time out.  But beyond that, this looks to be anyone's race; so it's everyone into the pool, as I go "ALL" in this leg.

RACE 10 - [S] OC 16k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Cool Green (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 4 Six Point Rack (ML 5-2)
# 8 California Journey (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Save Ground (ML 4-1)

Cool Green returns to Cal bred competition after defeating open company last time out while charging down the Santa Anita hill.  Six Point Rack took the Place at this class level two starts back.  California Journey may move up with the return to eight furlongs.  Save Ground tries winners for the first time after graduating over this turf course last time out.

RACE 11 - The San Carlos (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 4 American Anthem (ML 9-5)

B's

None

C's

# 2 St. Joe Bay (ML 12-1)
# 5 Horse Greedy (ML 15-1)
# 6 Touching Rainbows (ML 5-2)
# 8 Dabster (ML 4-1)


American Anthem, making his second start of 2018 for Trainer Bob Baffert, looks to be a legitimate Favorite here.  St. Joe Bay and Horse Greedy are two that were claimed out of their last race by Trainer John Sadler; maybe Sadler knows something we don't.

Touching Rainbows misses by a neck of entering this contest with a five race winning streak.  Dabster is the "other" Baffert.

RACE 12 - (F) Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Our Slick Chick (ML 5-1)

B's

# 5 Chalky (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 6 Temple Princess (ML 5-2)
# 7 Conformation (ML 5-1)

C's

# 8 Trophy Bridle (ML 12-1)
# 9 Majestic Design (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 1 Tiz Goldilux (ML 8-1)

Our Slick Chick was quick early in her one prior try on the grass; perhaps Our Slick Chick will lead them all around the course today.  Chalky (Ire) hasn't shown much since arriving from overseas; perhaps this is the day when she fulfills some of that early promise.

Temple Princess and Conformation took the Place in separate contests at this class level last time out.  Trophy Bridle showed some late interest last time out; perhaps Trophy Bridle has figured out what this racing stuff is all about.  Majestic Design could move up with a cutback in distance.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 11,12 with 5 with 4 with 2 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: ALL with 4,5,8 with 4 with 2,5,6,7 $66.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 11,12 with 1 with 4 with 2 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 11,12 with 5 with 2,5,6,8 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 11,12 with 5 with 4 with 8,9 $2.00

Total: $75.00

Post Time for Race 9 is 7:28 EDT / 4:28 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, June 17, 2018

6/17/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - # 8 Lookinforadanger (Final Odds 2.50) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Siren Lure - # 7 Bombard (3.80) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Summer's Indy (1.60) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 7 Awesometastic (4.30) - "C" Selection

One day after a chalkfest, not a single Post Time Favorite was able to find the Winner's Circle in the final four events on Sunday's dance card.  As for my play, only one of my "A" Selections finished in the Trifecta; and while that doesn't necessarily mean that you won't be cashing, it is a pretty good sign that you didn't have a handle on the sequence.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  8 / 7 / 1 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $159.90 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/17/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

“My father taught me that the only way you can make good at anything is to practice, and then practice some more.” - Pete Rose

Happy Fathers Day one and all!  Here's wishing all the dads out there nothing but the best on this third Sunday in June.  And hopefully some of that best will involve catching some well priced winners in Arcadia this afternoon.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $6.25k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Southern Treasure (Morning Line 4-1)

B’s

# 2 Peaked (ML 9-5)

C's

# 5 Tuscany Beauty (ML 7-2)
# 7 She'sluckythatway (ML 20-1)

# 8 Lookinforadanger (ML 5-1)

Southern Treasure has won at this class level in two of her last four starts.  Peaked tries real dirt for the first time, after taking the Place while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in each of her two most recent starts on the synthetic.

Tuscany Beauty took the Show against more expensive stock two starts back.  She'sluckythatway certainly runs fast in the morning; perhaps today She'sluckythatway will run fast in the afternoon.  Lookinforadanger might improve with the move to one turn racing.

RACE 8 - The Siren Lure $80k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 2 Tiz a Billy (ML 8-1)

B's

# 1 Double Touch (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 6 B Squared (ML 4-1)
# 7 Bombard (ML 7-2)

C's

# 9 Anatonlian Heat (ML 4-1)
# 10 Mongolian Shopper (ML 20-1)
# 11 Cistron (ML 5-1)


Tiz a Billy, making his 2018 debut, has finished in the Exacta five of the six times that he has charged down the Santa Anita hill.  Double Touch (GB) got to the line about a half length in front of B Squared the only prior time that Double Touch charged down the hill.

B Squared misses by just a head of entering this contest with two consecutive stakes wins, albeit of the state bred only variety.  Bombard, Show finisher behind Tiz a Billy two starts back, ran well while winning last time out, and could turn the tables on that rival.  Anatonlian Heat and Cistron filled out the Exacta while charging down the hill last time out.  Mongolian Shopper should be forwardly placed early.

RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Baby Ice (ML 12-1)

B's

# 1 Summer's Indy (ML 7-2)
# 2 Varanasi (ML 5-2)
# 3 Angelic (ML 8-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 6 The Innocent One (ML 6-1)

Baby Ice showed good early speed in her debut last time out, and may benefit from having to cover less real estate today.  Summer's Indy could move up with the return to the main track.  Varanasi broke well in her debut last Summer, and Trainer Richard Mandella tends to do well with those returning from an extended leave.  Angelic is making her second career start for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with such.

RACE 10 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 3 Neon Gypsy (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 1 Lady Beware (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Mo See Cal (ML 5-1)
# 4 Khaleesi (Brz) (ML 7-2)

C's

# 6 Red Shelby (ML 3-1)
# 7 Awesomtastic (ML 4-1)
# 9 Tiffany Diamond (ML 12-1)
# 11 Willows Babe (ML 12-1)


Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 12 Lethal Legacy (ML 8-1) and # 13 Looking At Thelake (ML 4-1)

Neon Gypsy took the Show against more expensive stock two starts back.  Lady Beware (Ire) looks to be the one that will be running best late.  Mo See Cal is dropping in for a tag for the first time.  Khaleesi (Brz) is getting some much needed class relief.

Red Shelby should be forwardly placed early.  Awesometastic and Willows Babe are two trying the turf for the first time.  Both are trained by Richard Baltas, who tends to do well with runners making their first attempt on the grass.  Tiffany Diamond should move up with the return to the turf.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 2 with 8 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 1,2,6,7 with 1,2,3,8 with 1,2,3,4 $64.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5,7,8 with 2 with 8 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 9,10,11 with 8 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2 with 8 with 6,7,9,11 $2.00

Total: $70.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 6:48 EDT / 3:48 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, June 16, 2018

6/16/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - # 4 Red Livy (Ire) (Final Odds 0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Perfect Wager (2.30) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 8 Helen Hillary (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 9 Blame Joe (1.90*) - "B" Selection

I spread wide, I dug deep, only to watch Post Time Favorites take three of the four legs in the sequence, with the remaining leg going to the second choice on the board.  Perhaps most incriminating of my play was the final leg, where I used every runner in some way, shape, or form, only to see the Post Time Favorite cross under the wire more than ten lengths in front of the rest of the field.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other two runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 2 Gutsy Effort (2.90) - $39.95 Finish: 6th
# 10 Eleazar Warrior (6.80) - $84.50 Finish: 5th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 11 / 8 / 9  which paid $31.45 for a fifty cent wager; much less than my initial investment of $121.50.  So while I cashed Saturday, I certainly didn't win.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/16/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The Grade 2 Summertime Oaks is the featured race on the Saturday card in Arcadia; but that contest is not included among the final four events on the program.  What there is instead are a pair on the grass as well as a pair on the dirt, with both dirt races being for non-winners of one.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 4 Red Livy (Ire) (Morning Line 2-1)
# 7 Holy Mosey (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 1 Salsita (ML 5-2)

C's

# 8 Madame Mousse (ML 6-1)

Holy Mosey and Red Livy (Ire) filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta charging down the hill last time out.  Salsita fits well at this class level.  Madame Mousse could move up with a cleaner trip.

RACE 9 - [S] Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Old Indian Trick (ML 5-2)

B's

# 7 Iron Curtain (ML 9-2)
# 11 Perfect Wager (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Loco Mango (ML 30-1)
# 5 Poise to Strike (ML 12-1)

# 9 Big Barrel (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 10 Git On Your Pulpit (ML 4-1)

Old Indian Trick drops in for a tag after taking the Show versus non-Claiming Maidens in each of his two prior career starts.  Iron Curtain missed graduation by just a neck at this class level last time out, with Perfect Wager taking the Show behind him.

Loco Mango has been working well for his move back to the main track.  Poise to Strike has broken well from the gate in each of his prior two starts.  Big Barrel is a debut runner showing a steady workout pattern leading into this event.

RACE 10 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Halo Darlin (ML 10-1)
# 8 Helen Hillary (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Lightning Dove (ML 4-1)
# 3 My Aunt Tillie (ML 6-1)
# 5 Saburai (ML 15-1)
# 9 Libby's Tail (ML 5-1)
# 11 Speakers (ML 12-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 10 Beautiful Becca (ML 8-1)

Halo Darlin could improve with a return to a more realistic class level.  Helen Hillary took the Place at this class level last time out, and could improve with a cleaner trip.

Lightning Dove fits on class, but looks to be better charging down the hill.  My Aunt Tillie may need more distance to show her best.

Saburai could improve going second off the layoff.  Libby's Tail ran well in her turf debut two starts back, and should be forwardly placed early.  Speakers could move up with the class drop.

RACE 11 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Gutsy Effort (ML 3-1)

B's

# 9 Blame Joe (ML 7-2)
# 10 Eleazar Warrior (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Masterpiece Day (ML 4-1)
# 3 Calimonco Flyer (ML 50-1)
# 4 Coastal Eddy (ML 20-1)
# 5 Going Away Party (ML 20-1)

# 7 If I Had a Nickel (ML 10-1)
# 8 Let Me Go Amigo (ML 8-1)
# 11 For the Hustle (ML 15-1)
# 12 Royal Seeker (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 6 Thefourfortyfourth (ML 20-1)

Gutsy Effort and Blame Joe are two that could move up with the class drop.  Eleazar Warrior took the Place at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

And we're over budget.  Well, some days that just can't be helped.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4,7 with 6 with 4,8 with 2 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,4,7 with 6,7,11 with 2,3,4,5,8,9,11 with 2,9,10 $94.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 8 with 6 with 4,8 with 2 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4,7 with 2,5,9 with 4,8 with 2 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 4,7 with 6 with 4,8 with 1,3,4,5,7,8,11,12 $16.00

Total: $121.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 7:22 EDT / 4:22 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, June 10, 2018

6/10/18 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Results

Race 7 - # 6 Gone My Way (Final Odds 2.60) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Cackle the Cuda (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Lil Awecim (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 5 One Eyed Mama (17.60) - No Selection
Race 11 - # 1 Powerful Angrified (4.00) - "B" Selection
Race 12 - # 3 Mithqaal (2.00*) - "B" Selection

The last time they faced off, Race 7 winner Gone My Way crossed under the wire about three lengths behind # 7 Angry Bobby (1.10*) while finishing fourth.  Gone My Way had also failed to finish in the Trifecta in his two career contests prior to that.  For those reasons, I felt reasonable confident that leaving Gone My Way out of my play was the right move.  As can be seen above, that was not the correct decision.

As regards One Eyed Mama, she was one of six last out winners in the field of eleven that left the gate in Race 10; a sign, perhaps, that I should have spread further in that leg.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Golden Pick Six sequence of  6 / 1 / 4 / 5 / 1 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $2,285.28 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/10/18 Golden Gate Fields Golden Pick 6 - Preview

It's closing day for the Winter/Spring meet at Golden Gate Fields, so everything must go, including the $51k currently sitting in the Jackpot Pick Six pool.  So with that as backdrop let's get to it, as I take a run at The Golden Pick Six at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 7 - Md $8k - Five Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Angry Bobby (Morning Line 2-1)

B's

# 9 Sierra Echo (ML 4-1)
# 10 Hong Kong Cowboy (ML 10-1)

C's

# 4 Soul Obsession (ML 8-1)
# 5 Tiz Amazing Bud (ML 12-1)

Angry Bobby took the Place at this class level in his first try over a synthetic surface after shipping in from downstate.  Sierra Echo is attempting to follow that same career path, arriving from SoCal in the hopes that the change of venue will lead to greater success.

Soul Obsession is a first time starter that could be ready to roll.  Tiz Amazing Bud has been working well for his return to action after a considerable vacation.  Hong Kong Cowboy showed some brief early speed in his debut last time out.

RACE 8 - Clm $4k B - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Cackle the Cuda (ML 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 5 Daddy Duke (ML 10-1)
# 7 Rainbow North (ML 7-2)
# 8 Spanish Eyes (ML 3-1)

Scratch # 3 Mr, Jay D (ML 10-1)

This contest is restricted to runners which have either:

1) Not won a race since April 1, 2018; OR
2) Which have never won four races.

So as long as a runner has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race.  If a horse has four career Wins or more, then none of those Wins could have come since the end of March (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $3.5k or less don't count when computing the Win totals).  For the record, # 6 Snappy Jack (ML 20-1) is the only runner in this field to have visited the Winner's Circle fewer than four times.

Cackle the Cuda has finished in the Exacta in each of his last two races against classier competition.  Spanish Eyes and Daddy Duke are making a bit of a sideways move on the class ladder (higher claiming price today, but with conditions) after filling in the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta last time out.  Rainbow North goes first off the claim for Trainer Jonathan Wong, who tends to do well with such.

RACE 9 - Md $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Lil Awecim (ML 5-2)

B's

# 3 Rustic Canyon (ML 7-2)
# 6 Roses for Oski (ML 10-1)
# 8 Hailey's Kid Comet (ML 8-1)

C's

# 9 Rocking Chieftain (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1 Schooley (ML 2-1)

Lil Awecim took the Place at this class level last time out.  In a separate contest, Rustic Canyon took the Show at this class level last time out.  Perhaps one or both of Lil Awecim and Rustic Canyon will learn how to rate today.

Roses for Oski could move up with the move to the lawn.  Hailey's Kid Comet may wake up with the return to the Bay.  Rocking Chieftain might improve with the change in barn.

RACE 10 - (F) Clm $20k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Pattin for a Dance (ML 6-1)
# 8 Regal Lady (ML 10-1)
# 10 Happy Issue (ML 15-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 4 Our Favorite City (ML 20-1)
# 6 Chloe Belle (ML 3-1)
# 9 Amandana (ML 7-2)

Pattin for a Dance, Regal Lady, and Happy Issue filled out the Trifecta at this class level, separated by less than a length at the wire, last time out.  Our Favorite City took the Show at this class level two starts back.  Chloe Belle enters this contest with a three race winning streak.  Amandana goes first off the claim for Trainer John Martin, who tends to do well with such.

RACE 11 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Concensus (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Powerful Angrified (ML 3-1)
# 2 Channel Crossing (ML 8-1)
# 4 River Rose (ML 6-1)
# 6 My Grand Valentine (ML 7-2)

C's

# 11 Major Implications (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 9 J Vivendi's Chrome (ML 30-1)

Concensus and My Grand Valentine should both improve with the return to one turn racing over the main track.  Powerful Angrified and Channel Crossing filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  River Rose is a first time starter that has been working well.  Major Implications could move up in his second career start.

RACE 12 - Clm $32k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Street Lad (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 3 Mithqaal (ML 9-5)

C's

# 1 Nowhere Man (ML 9-2)
# 5 Street Moxie (ML 3-1)
# 7 Speed Saver (ML 10-1)
# 8 Unusually Green (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 2 Ted Oliver (ML 20-1)

Street Lad drops after defeating more expensive stock last time out.  While this could be perceived as a negative class drop, I think it's more of an end of the meet move.

Mithqaal defeated cheaper by the length of the stretch last time out.  Trainer Jonathan Wong tends to do well when placing his last out winners.

Nowhere Man enters this event with a two race winning streak.  Street Moxie moves up in class after a solid victory last time out.  Speed Saver may have just needed a breather last time out.  Unusually Green could be the one running best late.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P6: 7 with 1 with 4 with 7,8,10 with 5 with 6 $3.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 7,9,10 with 1 with 3,4,6,8 with 7,8,10 with 1,2,4,5,6 with 3,6 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 4,5 with 1 with 4 with 7,8,10 with 5 with 6 $1.20
$0.20 P6: 7 with 5,7,8 with 4 with 7,8,10 with 5 with 6 $1.80
$0.20 P6: 7 with 1 with 9 with 7,8,10 with 5 with 6 $0.60
$0.20 P6: 7 with 1 with 4 with 4,6,9 with 5 with 6 $0.60
$0.20 P6: 7 with 1 with 4 with 7,8,10 with 11 with 6 $0.60
$0.20 P6: 7 with 1 with 4 with 7,8,10 with 5 with 1,5,7,8 $2.40

Total: $82.20

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:06 EST / 4:06 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, June 9, 2018

6/9/18 Belmont Park All Grade 1 Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The Just A Game - # 7 A Raving Beauty (Final Odds 3.65) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Metropolitan - # 10 Bee Jersey (3.25*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Manhattan - # 13 Spring Quality (18.00) - No Selection
Race 11 - The Belmont - # 1 Justify (0.80*) - "A" Selection

As far as my play goes, there's not much to say other than:

Oh well; onto the next race.

But needless to say, today wasn't about my play; rather, it was about an incredible athlete leaving his mark in the record books.  A truly outstanding effort by Justify, to go along with all his prior efforts throughout this Triple Crown season.  Congratulations to an incredible horse, who just kept finding more.  Congrats to Jockey Mike Smith, Trainer Bob Baffert, and all of Justify's connections.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Belmont Stakes Pick Four sequence of  7 / 10 / 13 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $639.25 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/9/18 Belmont Park All Grade 1 Pick Four - Preview

Forty-five years ago today, June 9, 1973, Secretariat moved like a tremendous machine:




Now today, in the 150th running of The Belmont Stakes, Justify will seek to join Secretariat and the eleven other elite athletes who have captured Horse Racing's Triple Crown.  Do I think Justify can do it?  Well, I'll answer that question below, as I take a run at The All Grade 1 Pick Four ending with The Test of Champions at beautiful Belmont Park.

RACE 8 - (F) The Just A Game (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf

A's

# 3 Off Limits (Ire) (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 4 Lull (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 On Leave (ML 9-2)
# 5 Proctor's Ledge (ML 4-1)
# 7 A Raving Beauty (Ger) (ML 5-2)

Off Limits (Ire) won the Grade 1 Matriarch the last time she went just eight furlongs.  Off Limits took the Show last time out in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, and could benefit from the reduction in real estate.  Lull projects to be the one leading the field through most of the early going; and, if they're not careful, Lull will lead them all the way to the Winner's Circle.

Proctor's Ledge and On Leave filled out the Exacta in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile at Churchill Downs last time out.  A Raving Beauty (Ger) ran quite well in winning the Grade 3 Beaugay on the inner turf course last time out; but, needless to say, A Raving Beauty will be facing much stiffer competition here today.

RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 1 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Bolt d'Oro (ML 4-1)
# 10 Bee Jersey (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Limousine Liberal (ML 10-1)
# 5 Good Samaritan (ML 10-1)
# 9 Warrior's Club (ML 20-1)
# 11 Awesome Slew (ML 6-1)

Mind Your Biscuits followed his 2017 victory in the Dubai Golden Shaheen by winning the Grade 2 Belmont Sprint Championship; perhaps Mind Your Biscuits can follow his 2018 victory in the Dubai Golden Shaheen with another Graded Stakes win over this main track.

Perhaps the return to one turn racing will allow Bolt d'Oro to regain his top form.  Bee Jersey misses by just a length of being undefeated in all five of his North American Starts.

Limousine Liberal, Warrior's Club, and Awesome Slew filled out the Trifecta in Grade 2 Churchill Downs last time out.  Note that this is the second year in a row that Awesome Slew has drawn the furthest outside post for this event.  Good Samaritan could move up with the cutback in distance.

RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf

A's

# 3 Hi Happy (Arg) (ML 7-2)
# 10 Beach Patrol (ML 5-2)

B's

# 1 Robert Bruce (Chi) (ML 3-1)
# 2 One Go All Go (ML 12-1)
# 8 Sadler's Joy (ML 8-1)

C's

# 4 Alexios Komnenos (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 6 Hello Don Julio (ML 30-1)

Hi Happy (Arg), Sadler's Joy, and One Go All Go filled out the Trifecta in the Grade 1 Man o'War last time out.  Beach Patrol could improve with a return to a firmer surface.  Robert Bruce (Chi) ran quite well in his North American debut last time out while winning the Grade 3 Fort Marcy.

Alexios Komnenos (Ire) may take to the New York surroundings.  Hello Don Julio may be outclassed here; but Hello Don Julio has always run well at today's distance.

RACE 11 - The Belmont (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 1 Justify (ML 4-5)

B's

# 3 Bravazo (ML 8-1)
# 4 Hofburg (ML 9-2)
# 7 Tenfold (ML 12-1)
# 8 Vino Rosso (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Free Drop Billy (ML 30-1)
# 5 Restoring Hope (ML 30-1)
# 6 Gronkowski (ML 12-1)
# 9 Noble Indy (ML 30-1)
# 10 Blended Citizen (ML 15-1)

Justify looks to be clear best in this field; but I couldn't rationalize making him a big ticket single.  Perhaps its just a mirage caused by the track surfaces in the prior two legs of The Triple Crown, but in neither race did Justify run as well as he did in the Santa Anita Derby.  In addition, each of his five wins has come by steadily decreasing margins.  Again, I think Justify is the clear best here, and anyone who makes Justify a single in their play today stands an excellent chance of being proven correct; but, for me, I thought it best to be cautious and to spread in this leg.

Audible, winner of the Florida Derby, would probably have been an "A" Selection alongside Justify had he run in this event; but as Audible is owned by the same group that owns Justify, there was no way that those two were going to compete with The Triple Crown on the line.  However, we do get Hofburg, Place finisher behind Audible in that Florida Derby; and if Hofburg can move forward off that effort with the return to a Fast dirt track, then Hofburg just may be the one getting his picture taken today.

Bravazo and Tenfold filled out the Trifecta last time out behind Justify in the Preakness.  Vino Rosso is another that could improve with a return to a Fast dirt track.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 1 with 3,10 with 1 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 1,2,10 with 1,2,3,8,10 with 1,3,4,7,8 $75.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,5,7 with 1 with 3,10 with 1 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3,5,9,11 with 3,10 with 1 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1 with 4,6 with 1 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1 with 3,10 with 2,5,6,9,10 $5.00

Total: $90.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 4:02 EDT / 1:02 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Friday, June 8, 2018

6/8/18 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The True North - # 3 Imperial Hint (Final Odds 1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The New York - # 8 Fourstar Crook (4.40) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Belmont Gold Cup - # 1 Call To Mind (GB) (1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 7 Captain Hardship (8.30) - "C" Selection

In the nightcap at Belmont Park Friday, "B" Selection # 3 Wicked Trick (12.30) ran very well.  Unfortunately, most of that running came after Wicked Trick had tossed Jockey Manny Franco off his back.  Fortunately, all reports are that Franco is fine.  Unfortunately for me, Wicked Trick choosing to run riderless spotlighted a questionable decision on my part to use him on my big ticket rather than Captain Hardship; a decision that made Friday a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 2 Mathematician (6.00) - $335.00 Finish: 3rd
# 3 Wicked Trick (12.30) - $918.75 Did Not Finish
# 5 Into the Breach (2.45*) - $227.00 Finish: 8th
# 8 Steeles Run (3.35) - $241.00 Finish: 6th

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  3 / 8 / 1 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $473.00 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/8/18 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Day 2 of The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival in New York, and the good people at NYRA have blessed us with an incredible selection of stakes on both Friday and Saturday; indeed, it's virtually a mid-year Breeders' Cup.  So pick and choose your plays over the next two days, finding the spots where you think that your opinions are the strongest.  As for me, I'll be taking my customary look Friday at the final four offerings on the card, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Beautiful Belmont Park.

RACE 8 - The True North (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Imperial Hint (Morning Line 9-2)

B's

# 4 Bobby Abu Dhabi (ML 5-2)
# 8 Whitmore (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Recruiting Ready (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 2 Joking (ML 6-1) and # 5 Limousine Liberal (ML 7-2)

Imperial Hint could improve with the return to a drier surface, and has shown in the past that he doesn't need the lead to win.  Bobby Abu Dhabi and Whitmore appear to be the two best suited to taking advantage of any pace meltdown.  Recruiting Ready could be dangerous with a repeat of his performance last time out; but Recruiting Ready seems to do his best running on an off track.

RACE 9 - (F) The New York (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf

A’s

# 5 Sistercharlie (Ire) (ML 9-5)

B's

# 2 Holy Helena (ML 6-1)
# 8 Fourstar Crook (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Fahan Mura (ML 12-1)
# 6 Daddys Lil Darling (ML 4-1)
# 9 Moms On Strike (ML 5-1)


Sistercharlie (Ire) and Fourstar Crook filled out the Exacta in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley last time out.  Holy Helena has done nothing wrong since being put on the lawn.

Fahan Mura's speed on the rail could serve her well on this inner turf course.  Moms On Strike and Daddys Lil Darling filled out the Exacta in the Grade 3 Bewitch last time out, and both are eligible to improve with the cutback in distance.

RACE 10 - The Belmont Gold Cup (Grade 2) - Sixteen Furlongs Widener Turf

A’s

# 1 Call To Mind (GB) (ML 7-2)

B's

# 3 Prince of Arran (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 4 Funny Kid (ML 5-1)
# 5 Canessar (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 6 Nessy (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Cooptado (Arg) (ML 30-1)
# 8 Postulation (ML 10-1)
# 10 Rocketry (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 7 Run Time (ML 15-1) and # 9 Focus Group (ML 10-1)

Call To Mind (GB), owned and bred by Her Majesty The Queen (God bless her), finished third last month in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup, and should have no problem with today's distance.  Prince of Arran (GB) could move up with the cutback in distance, and how often am I ever going to get the chance to note that a runner going two miles is cutting back in distance?

Funny Kid seems too slow; but he keeps winning, so I can't knock him off the big ticket.  Canessar (Fr) could win with a return to last year's form.  Nessy may enjoy the increase in real estate.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - MSW - Eleven Furlongs Inner Turf

A’s

# 2 Mathematician (ML 7-2)

B's

# 3 Wicked Trick (ML 8-1)
# 5 Into the Breach (ML 4-1)
# 8 Steeles Run (ML 9-2)


C's

# 4 Shiloh Lane (ML 30-1)
# 7 Captain Hardship (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 11 Fleet Admiral (ML 50-1) and # 12 Electro (ML 30-1)

Mathematician, Wicked Trick, and Into the Breach have consistently finished in the Trifecta at this class level.  Steeles Run took the Place at this class level while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in his debut last time out.  Shiloh Lane and Captain Hardship both have the breeding to suggest that they will do well at Friday's distance.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3 with 5 with 1 with 2 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,4,8 with 2,5,8 with 1,3,4,5,6 with 2,3,5,8 $90.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1 with 5 with 1 with 2 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,6,9 with 1 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 5 with 2,8,10 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 5 with 1 with 4,7 $1.00

Total: $95.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 4:42 EDT / 1:42 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Sunday, June 3, 2018

6/3/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 9 Sweet Treat (Final Odds 2.60) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Unapologetic (4.90) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Melair - # 6 Loving Lynda (6.50) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 12 Helen's Tiger (2.70) - "A" Selection

It always looks so easy when the horses do what you expect them to do.  A rebound runner; a class dropper; a solid trainer angle; and a close last out finisher returning at the same class level over the same surface and distance.  All well established handicapping factors that came together Sunday to produce four winners without a Post Time Favorite in the bunch.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other three runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 1 Great Ma Neri (20.50) - $1,996.90 Finish: 8th
# 3 Whoa Nessie (4.90) - $659.45 Finish: 3rd
# 5 Council Women (5.60) - $522.70 Finish: 4th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  9 / 2 / 6 / 12  which paid $483.40 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $398.40 on my initial $85 investment, or approximate odds of 4.69-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/3/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

“Most of the important things in the world have been accomplished by people who have kept on trying when there seemed to be no hope at all.” - Dale Carnegie

It's Sunday; and, honestly, that's all I have by way of introduction.  So let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - (F) Md $20k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 California Breeze (Morning Line 8-5)

B's

# 2 Izzys Express (ML 7-2)
# 9 Sweet Treat (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Solora Corona (ML 6-1)
# 6 A Little Romance (ML 20-1)


California Breeze took the Place at this class level two starts back, albeit while going around just one turn.  Izzys Express drops in class, switches surfaces, and gets a rider change; perhaps all those adjustments will help guide Izzys Express to the Inner's Circle.  Sweet Treat missed graduation by just a neck against more expensive stock the last time that she routed on a Fast dirt track; however, that race was nearly two years ago.

Solora Carona took the Show at this class level last time out.  A Little Romance might improve with the class drop and the switch to two turn racing.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Unapologetic (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 The Big Train (ML 6-1)
# 4 Acker (ML 7-2)
# 7 Alsatian (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Aventador (Fr) (ML 10-1)
# 5 Tartini (ML 6-1)
# 9 Deal With It Dude (ML 8-1)

Unapologetic is getting some much needed class relief.  Acker and The Big Train filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  Alsatian looks to be the one that will be leading the field through most of the early going.

Aventador (Fr) should improve with the return to turf.  Tartini might improve off the freshening.  Deal With It Dude showed little in his first try on the grass last time out; but Deal With It Dude does fit well with the others in here on class, and may move up with the stretch out.

RACE 8 - (F) [S] The Melair $200k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Spiced Perfection (ML 2-1)

B's

# 6 Loving Lynda (ML 4-1)
# 7 One Fast Broad (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Inland Empire (ML 12-1)
# 3 Pulpit Rider (ML 5-2)
# 4 Coca Kisses (ML 12-1)
# 5 Mo See Cal (ML 8-1)

Spiced Perfection, winner of the Evening Jewel last time out, has run well in the past when going around two turns.  Loving Lynda tries winners for the first time; Trainer Phil D'Amato tends to do well when placing his last out graduates.  One Fast Broad twice last Fall got to the line ahead of Spiced Perfection at this class level; perhaps One Fast Broad can re-discover that 2017 form.

Inland Empire could improve with a return to the main track.  Pulpit Rider won at this level last time out, albeit over the turf course.  Coca Kisses is on the ticket because everyone else is.  Mo See Cal should be forwardly placed early.

RACE 9 - (F) [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 5 Council Women (ML 4-1)
# 12 Helen's Tiger (ML 6-1)

B's

# 1 Great Ma Neri (ML 12-1)
# 3 Whoa Nessie (ML 6-1)

C's

# 6 Here'slookinatya (ML 5-1)
# 7 Warm Up the Bench (ML 20-1)
# 8 Oh Pretty Woman (ML 5-1)
# 9 Miss Ricochet (ML 7-2)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 13 And Counting (ML 12-1), who does not draw in.

Council Women took the Show routing on the flats last time out, and Council Women has been working well leading up to this event.  Helen's Tiger closed well in her first try charging down the Santa Anita hill last time out.

Great Ma Neri returns off the extended layoff; Trainer Lorenzo Ruiz tends to do well with such.  Whoa Nessie took the Show at this class level in her first try navigating the hill last time out.

Here'slookinatya, Warm Up the Bench, and Oh Pretty Woman are a trio of first time starters that could be ready to roll at first asking.  Miss Ricochet could move up with the move to the turf.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 2 with 1 with 5,12 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7,9 with 1,2,4,7 with 1,6,7 with 1,3,5,12 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 2 with 1 with 5,12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,5,9 with 1 with 5,12 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2 with 2,3,4,5 with 5,12 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2 with 1 with 6,7,8,9 $2.00

Total: $85.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:14 EDT / 3:14 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Saturday, June 2, 2018

6/2/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The Snow Chief - # 1 Take the One O One (Final Odds 1.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Lemon Crush (2.50) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Beholder Mile - # 6 Unique Bella (0.50*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 1 Vending Machine (13.20) - "C" Selection

Back in June, 2017, Vending Machine crossed under the wire first while charging down the Santa Anita hill, but was disqualified and placed fourth.  Saturday saw a similar outcome, with Vending Machine getting to the wire a head in front of # 8 Tina's Exchange (1.70*) after those two came together in the stretch; but this time the California stewards saw fit to let the result stand, making this a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the three runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 4 Spokane Eagle (7.50) - $166.55 Finish: 9th
# 5 Passionate Reward (5.10) - $57.60 Finish: 5th
# 8 Tina's Exchange (1.70*) - $34.25 Finish: 2nd

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 5 / 6 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $167.70 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo