6/29/18 Oak Tree At Pleasanton Late Pick Four - Preview

Getting a head start on the weekend by taking a swing at Friday's card at Alameda County Fairgrounds.  I've moved my action upstate because, as can be read here, Los Alamitos has decided to double the minimum wager for The Late Pick Four.  Needless to say, I have no intention of doubling my wagering budget; nor do I intend to start randomly tossing out runners that I think have legitimate chances to win.  So having been priced out of the game at Los Al, I've decided to spend my wagering dollars outside of Southern California; at least until Del Mar opens.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Oak Tree at Pleasanton.

RACE 5 - Clm $4k N2Y - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Tiz Titus (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 2 Union Wine (ML 10-1)
# 3 Danas Best (Aus) (ML 5-1)
# 6 Gurnick (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lucky Views (ML 6-1)

C's

# 4 Daddy Duke (ML 3-1)
# 5 A P Phantom (ML 8-1)

This contest is for runners three year olds and upward that have not won two races in 2018.

Tiz Titus has finished in the Trifecta against classier foes in each of his last three races, and has finished in the money in half of his dirt starts.  Union Wine has run well in the past over Fast dirt tracks.  Danas Best (Aus) and Lucky Views are two last out winners who have previously run well over this main track.

Gurnick has finished in the Trifecta in all four of his previous starts on a Fast dirt track.  Grunick could also move up with the drop in class.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Spicy Feline (ML 3-1)
# 8 Stellarium (ML 6-1)

B's

# 4 Little Moo (ML 9-2)
# 9 Ron's Cat (ML 8-1)

C's

# 5 Breaking the Code (ML 4-1)
# 6 Zahra (ML 10-1)

These are juvenile fillies, and man oh man, the temptation is great to just punch the "ALL" button.  I decided to make a few eliminations; but those who are faint of heart and long in bankroll are encouraged to just buy this leg and move on.

Spicy Feline took the Place in her debut last time out over the synthetic main track at Golden Gate.  Stellarium and Breaking the Code are two first time starters trained by Greg James.  I give the edge to Stellarium, purchased at auction as a yearling for $32k, because Stellarium's sire, Jimmy Creed, has done well with regard to making debut winners; while Stellarium's dam, Stellaluna, has already produced two winners from three starters.

Little Moo and Ron's Cat filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta last time out over this main track.  Zahra was sired by two time Graded Stakes winner Daaher, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.

RACE 7 - Md $16k - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 I'm an Eight (ML 5-2)

B's

# 4 Imalocomotive (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 A Little Bit Cocky (ML 9-2)
# 5 Bryan Habana (Arg) (ML 12-1)
# 7 Senja (ML 6-1)

I'm an Eight has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last six starts, without being the Post Time Favorite in any of them, suggesting that he has consistently run better than expected.  Imalocomotive could move up with the stretch out in distance.

A Little Bit Cocky has been a consistent money burning, disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in five of his nine career starts.  But perhaps the move to a Fast dirt track will change things up for A Little Bit Cocky.

Bryan Habana (Arg), shipping in from downstate, could improve with the change of scenery.  Senja has taken the Show in two of his last three starts, albeit on the turf.

RACE 8 - Clm $20k N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Paynes Prairie (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 3 Jimmy the Juice (ML 12-1)

C's

# 1 Country Road (ML 3-1)
# 2 John Paul's Bet (ML 9-2)

# 5 Puriano (ML 8-1)

# 7 Cannonball Comin (ML 4-1)
# 8 Son of a Minister (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 4 Chanted (ML 5-1)

Paynes Prairie was a clear winner over the Fast dirt track at Fresno last time out, and Trainer Jonathan Wong tends to do well when bringing his runners back from an extended vacation.  Jimmy the Juice tends to do well when competing over a real dirt track.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 1,8 with 3 with 6 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6,7 with 1,4,8,9 with 3,4 with 3,6 $40.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 1,8 with 3 with 6 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 5,6 with 3 with 6 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,8 with 2,5,7 with 6 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,8 with 3 with 1,2,5,7,8 $5.00

Total: $53.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:15 EDT / 4:15 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo