RACE 7 - [S] The Snow Chief $200k - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Take the One O One (Morning Line 5-2)
# 2 Hardboot (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Continental Divide (ML 10-1)
# 6 Psycho Dar (ML 9-2)
C's
# 3 Waya Ed (ML 4-1)
# 5 Hit the Seam (ML 12-1)
# 7 Huddle (ML 4-1)
Take the One O One looks to be an easy winner here if he can bring his main track form onto the turf course. Take the One O One's breeding suggests that switching to the turf should be no problem; though that was hardly the case the one and only time previously that Take the One O One ran on some California grass. So for that reason, it seemed prudent for me to spread here.
Hardboot won the Silky Sullivan last time out by daylight, with Psycho Dar taking the Place behind him. I think the additional real estate today may aid Psycho Dar. Continental Divide is by 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom out of a Dixieland Band mare; so the pedigree is all in on the distance, though you could hardly tell that when Continental Divide went nine furlongs for the first time two starts back. Perhaps he needed to try it once to get the hang of it.
The backup "C" Selections are everyone else. Which runner will best handle the distance will prove to be the key to this contest; and while breeding can offer some guideposts, there's really no telling until they actually try it for themselves.
RACE 8 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Z Z Tiger (ML 6-1)
B's
# 5 Lemon Crush (ML 7-2)
# 10 Rocketann (ML 15-1)
C's
# 3 Chasin Lucas (ML 8-1)
# 6 Queen Shelly Ann (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Thalia (ML 6-1) and # 7 Paprika (ML 5-2)
Z Z Tiger looks quickest here, and projects to be the one that they'll have to catch to win. Lemon Crush took the Show at this class level last time out. Rocketann has been working well for her return from an extended vacation. Chasin Lucas and Queen Shelly Ann are a pair of debut runners who might upset, as this field is lacking a true standout, especially with the scratch of Paprika.
RACE 9 - (F) The Beholder (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Vale Dori (Arg) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Paradise Woods (ML 2-1)
# 6 Unique Bella (ML 3-5)
# 6 Unique Bella (ML 3-5)
C's
None
Scratch # 2 Mopotism (ML 15-1)
Vale Dori (Arg) did not run well last time out, marking just the second time in her seventeen race career that she failed to finish in the Trifecta. Does that mean that her racing days are over, and that it's time for her to start making future stakes winners? Perhaps; but I'm guessing not. That was quite the extended layoff from which Vale Dori was returning last time out, and I'm going to presume that she needed that last race as a prep for this contest.
Okay, so having decided that Vale Dori is my top selection in this event, what to do with the other main contenders? Well, as you can see above, I decided to use all three on the big ticket. Perhaps a braver player than I, having made Vale Dori their main choice, would relegate Paradise Woods and Unique Bella to backup status; but I see little to be gained by pretending that these two high class fillies don't each have legitimate chances of winning today. Besides, I can use the Win pool to press my opinion that Vale Dori is the most likely winner of today's featured race.
RACE 10 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Tina's Exchange (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Spokane Eagle (ML 10-1)
# 5 Passionate Reward (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Vending Machine (ML 8-1)
# 2 Hootie (ML 5-1)
# 6 Incensed (ML 6-1)
# 7 Skelton Pass (ML 4-1)
Tina's Exchange took the Place at this class level charging down the Santa Anita hill last time out. Spokane Eagle tries the turf for the first time; his breeding suggests that Spokane Eagle will do well with the surface switch. Passionate Reward won his debut in a downhill charge last time out.
Vending Machine could move up going second off the layoff. Hootie fits well here on class, but is probably better suited to routing on the flats. Incensed may improve with the hood being added. Skelton Pass won charging down the hill two starts back, albeit for a different barn.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,2 with 7 with 5 with 8 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,6 with 5,7,10 with 4,5,6 with 4,5,8 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5,7 with 7 with 5 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 3,6 with 5 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,2 with 7 with 5 with 1,2,6,7 $4.00
Total: $63.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:46 EDT / 3:46 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment