The Juan Gonzalez Memorial Stakes is the featured race Saturday at the Alameda County Fairgrounds. That event is carded for the first half of the program, and therefore (unfortunately) will not be a part of the analysis below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Oak Tree at Pleasanton.
RACE 6 - Clm $12.5k N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Flash Henry (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Aberdeen Island (ML 9-2)
# 2 Candy's Martini (ML 8-1)
# 4 Tough Timber (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 The Common Man (ML 6-1)
# 6 Simply Charming (ML 7-2)
# 7 Looks Good N a Tux (ML 4-1)
Flash Henry, a two time winner over a Fast dirt track, took the Place at this approximate class level (lower claiming price, but no conditions) last time out. Aberdeen Island could improve with a return to dirt.
Candy's Martini could benefit from the cutback in distance. Tough Timber has finished in the Exacta five of the six times that he has competed over a Fast dirt track. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - Alw 40000s N2L - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Zippy Groom (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Robs Lucky Spirit (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Playing Through (ML 5-1)
# 7 Tune to Win (ML 7-2)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; no exceptions. No entrant in this field has more than one career Win.
Zippy Groom is the only entrant in this field whose solo victory came over a Fast dirt track. Robs Lucky Spirit could move up with the surface switch. Playing Through took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit on some California grass. Tune to Win has run well in the past when competing on real dirt.
RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 Southern Thunder (ML 3-1)
B's
# 3 Crystal Dome (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 4 Drouillard (ML 4-1)
# 9 Sweet River Baines (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 It's The Ice (GB) (ML 10-1)
# 7 Gabo's Macondo (ML 8-1)
Southern Thunder could improve with the return to dirt. Crystal Dome (GB) may move up trying a different surface for the first time. Drouillard has finished in the Exacta in each of his last three races. Sweet River Baines missed victory by just a nose at this class level last time out, albeit while sprinting on the synthetic.
It's The Ice (GB) took the Show at this class level on the turf last time out. Gabo's Macondo fits well here on class, though Gabo's Macondo didn't show much in his only previous race on dirt.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $5k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Gal Factor (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 Angel Tears (ML 20-1)
# 9 Out Trump'd Her (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Know Pepper (ML 7-2)
# 4 Shadow Affair (ML 20-1)
# 5 Astorian Queen (ML 8-1)
# 6 Misleading (ML 15-1)
Gal Factor goes first off the claim for Trainer Ari Herbertson, who tends to do well with such. Angel Tears took the Show against more expensive stock last time out (albeit over the synthetic) and could move up with the change of barn.
Know Pepper, Shadow Affair, and Out Trump'd Her have each finished in the Trifecta in common races of late at this class level. I moved Out Trump'd Her to the main ticket because she'll be trying a Fast dirt track for the first time, and she may take to the surface.
Astorian Queen is a first time starter for Trainer Steve Sherman that has shown absolutely nothing in her morning workouts over the synthetic track at Golden Gate Fields; maybe she'll go faster on real dirt. Misleading may improve with her first try over a Fast dirt track.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 8 with 2 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4 with 1,8 with 2,3,4,9 with 1,8,9 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,6,7 with 8 with 2 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 2,7 with 2 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 8 with 5,7 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 8 with 2 with 2,4,5,6 $2.00
Total: $54.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:15 EDT / 4:15 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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