Now today, in the 150th running of The Belmont Stakes, Justify will seek to join Secretariat and the eleven other elite athletes who have captured Horse Racing's Triple Crown. Do I think Justify can do it? Well, I'll answer that question below, as I take a run at The All Grade 1 Pick Four ending with The Test of Champions at beautiful Belmont Park.
RACE 8 - (F) The Just A Game (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf
A's
# 3 Off Limits (Ire) (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 4 Lull (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 On Leave (ML 9-2)
# 5 Proctor's Ledge (ML 4-1)
# 7 A Raving Beauty (Ger) (ML 5-2)
# 7 A Raving Beauty (Ger) (ML 5-2)
Off Limits (Ire) won the Grade 1 Matriarch the last time she went just eight furlongs. Off Limits took the Show last time out in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, and could benefit from the reduction in real estate. Lull projects to be the one leading the field through most of the early going; and, if they're not careful, Lull will lead them all the way to the Winner's Circle.
Proctor's Ledge and On Leave filled out the Exacta in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile at Churchill Downs last time out. A Raving Beauty (Ger) ran quite well in winning the Grade 3 Beaugay on the inner turf course last time out; but, needless to say, A Raving Beauty will be facing much stiffer competition here today.
RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Bolt d'Oro (ML 4-1)
# 10 Bee Jersey (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Limousine Liberal (ML 10-1)
# 5 Good Samaritan (ML 10-1)
# 9 Warrior's Club (ML 20-1)
# 11 Awesome Slew (ML 6-1)
Mind Your Biscuits followed his 2017 victory in the Dubai Golden Shaheen by winning the Grade 2 Belmont Sprint Championship; perhaps Mind Your Biscuits can follow his 2018 victory in the Dubai Golden Shaheen with another Graded Stakes win over this main track.
Perhaps the return to one turn racing will allow Bolt d'Oro to regain his top form. Bee Jersey misses by just a length of being undefeated in all five of his North American Starts.
Limousine Liberal, Warrior's Club, and Awesome Slew filled out the Trifecta in Grade 2 Churchill Downs last time out. Note that this is the second year in a row that Awesome Slew has drawn the furthest outside post for this event. Good Samaritan could move up with the cutback in distance.
RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf
A's
# 3 Hi Happy (Arg) (ML 7-2)
# 10 Beach Patrol (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Robert Bruce (Chi) (ML 3-1)
# 2 One Go All Go (ML 12-1)
# 8 Sadler's Joy (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Alexios Komnenos (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 6 Hello Don Julio (ML 30-1)
Hi Happy (Arg), Sadler's Joy, and One Go All Go filled out the Trifecta in the Grade 1 Man o'War last time out. Beach Patrol could improve with a return to a firmer surface. Robert Bruce (Chi) ran quite well in his North American debut last time out while winning the Grade 3 Fort Marcy.
Alexios Komnenos (Ire) may take to the New York surroundings. Hello Don Julio may be outclassed here; but Hello Don Julio has always run well at today's distance.
RACE 11 - The Belmont (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Justify (ML 4-5)
B's
# 3 Bravazo (ML 8-1)
# 4 Hofburg (ML 9-2)
# 7 Tenfold (ML 12-1)
# 8 Vino Rosso (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Free Drop Billy (ML 30-1)
# 5 Restoring Hope (ML 30-1)
# 6 Gronkowski (ML 12-1)
# 9 Noble Indy (ML 30-1)
# 10 Blended Citizen (ML 15-1)
Justify looks to be clear best in this field; but I couldn't rationalize making him a big ticket single. Perhaps its just a mirage caused by the track surfaces in the prior two legs of The Triple Crown, but in neither race did Justify run as well as he did in the Santa Anita Derby. In addition, each of his five wins has come by steadily decreasing margins. Again, I think Justify is the clear best here, and anyone who makes Justify a single in their play today stands an excellent chance of being proven correct; but, for me, I thought it best to be cautious and to spread in this leg.
Audible, winner of the Florida Derby, would probably have been an "A" Selection alongside Justify had he run in this event; but as Audible is owned by the same group that owns Justify, there was no way that those two were going to compete with The Triple Crown on the line. However, we do get Hofburg, Place finisher behind Audible in that Florida Derby; and if Hofburg can move forward off that effort with the return to a Fast dirt track, then Hofburg just may be the one getting his picture taken today.
Bravazo and Tenfold filled out the Trifecta last time out behind Justify in the Preakness. Vino Rosso is another that could improve with a return to a Fast dirt track. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 1 with 3,10 with 1 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 1,2,10 with 1,2,3,8,10 with 1,3,4,7,8 $75.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,5,7 with 1 with 3,10 with 1 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3,5,9,11 with 3,10 with 1 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1 with 4,6 with 1 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1 with 3,10 with 2,5,6,9,10 $5.00
Total: $90.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:02 EDT / 1:02 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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