As expected, Off the Wall (Final Odds 11.3-1) went to the lead early in Race 7 at Santa Anita Sunday. Unfortunately, Off the Wall was unable to hold on at the end, finishing fourth, three lengths back. Even more unfortunate, my other two selections in this leg of the Pick Four, Cherokee Heaven (13.1-1) and El Vino (16-1), both finished even further behind the winner, Royal F J (9.7-1), than Off the Wall did, making the race a complete wash out. Nothing like correctly predicting that none of the public's top three selections for the race will win, and yet still not picking a horse that finished in the money.
Needless to say, once the first leg of the Pick Four was kaput, the rest of the ticket came through with flying colors. Indeed, legs two and three were won by the suggested singles: the heavily favored Distracting (0.6-1) in Race 8; and Slim Shadey (GB) (3.2-1) in Race 9. The final leg (Race 10) was won by Currahee (4.8-1), giving us a Pick Four ticket with 75% of the winners correctly picked. Those fortunate enough to have correctly selected 100% of the Pick Four winners were rewarded with $383.75 for every fifty cents that they wagered.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 30, 2012
9/30/12 SA - Preview
Not much time for details; so here goes with some opinions on the Late Pick Four at Santa Anita:
RACE 7
# 6 Cherokee Heaven (Morning Line 6-1) has done well on this surface in the past; and was victorious his last time out against this level of competition; the question is how sharp he'll be in this, his second off the layoff. # 10 Off the Wall (ML 6-1) gets some class relief, and could steal this one on the front end. #12 El Vino (ML 8-1) was doing quite well on this surface earlier in the year; for whatever reason, he hasn't raced on the grass since April. Tough call but I'm going to go with the hot hand; specifically Jockey Joe Talamo, who is having a superb day so far; as he'll be riding Off the Wall, that's where I'll place my bets.
RACE 8
# 8 Big Tiz (ML 5-2) dominated from a class perspective; but trainer intent is key, and this could be just a warm-up where she runs wide without giving all out effort. # 9 Double Ante (ML 6-1) look tempting, but it's one thing to come from the clouds on synthetics; to do that again on this dirt track may require more talent than she has. Playing it safe here with the Baffert / Bejarano combo, # 5 Distracting (ML 9-5).
RACE 9
# 6 Turbo Compressor (ML 5-2) invades from the east, bringing jockey Joe Bravo with him; look for him early, and see if he can hold on. # 9 Bourbon Bay (ML 3-1) loves this track but not this distance. I'll be looking for # 8 Slim Shadey (GB) (ML 4-1) to repeat his performance in the Grade 2 San Marcos is February.
RACE 10
No firm opinion at this time, as there are a whole host of entrants making the big drop; but here are the four I think you should use in your multis: # 3 King Maya (ML 5-1); # 4 Currahee (ML 6-1); # 7 Symphonic Cat (ML 8-1); and # 10 Bipartisan (ML 15-1)
If you single Distracting, you can play a $0.50 Pick Four for $18 as follows:
R7: 6, 10, 12
R8: 5
R9: 6, 8, 9
R10: 3, 4, 7, 10
Add another $0.50 Pick Four for $2:
R7: 10
R8: 5
R9: 8
R10: 3, 4, 7, 10
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7
# 6 Cherokee Heaven (Morning Line 6-1) has done well on this surface in the past; and was victorious his last time out against this level of competition; the question is how sharp he'll be in this, his second off the layoff. # 10 Off the Wall (ML 6-1) gets some class relief, and could steal this one on the front end. #12 El Vino (ML 8-1) was doing quite well on this surface earlier in the year; for whatever reason, he hasn't raced on the grass since April. Tough call but I'm going to go with the hot hand; specifically Jockey Joe Talamo, who is having a superb day so far; as he'll be riding Off the Wall, that's where I'll place my bets.
RACE 8
# 8 Big Tiz (ML 5-2) dominated from a class perspective; but trainer intent is key, and this could be just a warm-up where she runs wide without giving all out effort. # 9 Double Ante (ML 6-1) look tempting, but it's one thing to come from the clouds on synthetics; to do that again on this dirt track may require more talent than she has. Playing it safe here with the Baffert / Bejarano combo, # 5 Distracting (ML 9-5).
RACE 9
# 6 Turbo Compressor (ML 5-2) invades from the east, bringing jockey Joe Bravo with him; look for him early, and see if he can hold on. # 9 Bourbon Bay (ML 3-1) loves this track but not this distance. I'll be looking for # 8 Slim Shadey (GB) (ML 4-1) to repeat his performance in the Grade 2 San Marcos is February.
RACE 10
No firm opinion at this time, as there are a whole host of entrants making the big drop; but here are the four I think you should use in your multis: # 3 King Maya (ML 5-1); # 4 Currahee (ML 6-1); # 7 Symphonic Cat (ML 8-1); and # 10 Bipartisan (ML 15-1)
If you single Distracting, you can play a $0.50 Pick Four for $18 as follows:
R7: 6, 10, 12
R8: 5
R9: 6, 8, 9
R10: 3, 4, 7, 10
Add another $0.50 Pick Four for $2:
R7: 10
R8: 5
R9: 8
R10: 3, 4, 7, 10
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/29/12 SA Race 2 - Horse Watch
As regular readers of this blog already know from some of my prior posts, I have a (perhaps unhealthy) interest in longshot claims; that is, horses claimed in a race where they went to post at long odds, and then performed as expected by the public. I guess my fascination is in the mystery: What do the new connections think they see that the public and the horse's prior connections don't? And whose judgement will prove to be the correct one?
So, with that as background, I report that Big Man in Black (whom I am reasonably certain was not named for me) was claimed by Trainer Carla Gaines out of Race 2 Saturday at Santa Anita. Saturday's race, a Maiden Claiming ($20k) was Big Man in Black's fourth career start. He went to post at Final Odds of 10.6-1, and finished eighth, over twenty lengths behind the winner. In his three prior starts, Big Man in Black had finished eighth, fifth, and sixth.
Now, I have no idea what the new connections see in this horse that others do not; but I sure am curious to find out. One thing I can say for certain is that Big Man in Black does have a lot of class in his genes. His sire, Southern Image, won three Grade One Stakes, in a career in which he won six out of eight tries, without ever finishing out of the money. Big Man in Black's damsire is Lord Avie, also a three time Grade One Stakes winner. So the potential for success is there; now let's see if Big Man in Black's new connections can draw it out of him.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
So, with that as background, I report that Big Man in Black (whom I am reasonably certain was not named for me) was claimed by Trainer Carla Gaines out of Race 2 Saturday at Santa Anita. Saturday's race, a Maiden Claiming ($20k) was Big Man in Black's fourth career start. He went to post at Final Odds of 10.6-1, and finished eighth, over twenty lengths behind the winner. In his three prior starts, Big Man in Black had finished eighth, fifth, and sixth.
Now, I have no idea what the new connections see in this horse that others do not; but I sure am curious to find out. One thing I can say for certain is that Big Man in Black does have a lot of class in his genes. His sire, Southern Image, won three Grade One Stakes, in a career in which he won six out of eight tries, without ever finishing out of the money. Big Man in Black's damsire is Lord Avie, also a three time Grade One Stakes winner. So the potential for success is there; now let's see if Big Man in Black's new connections can draw it out of him.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/28/12 SA Race 6 - Horse Watch
Alright; Fairplex is over, and Santa Anita has begun its "All Our Old Stakes Have New Names" Meet; which means it's time for me to get back to work.
Friday was Opening Day at Santa Anita, and the featured race was Race Number 8, the Grade 3 Eddie D Stakes (previously known as the Morvich Stakes, but re-named to honor Hall of Fame Jockey Eddie Delahoussaye). Run at a distance of approximately six and a half furlongs down the El Camino Real turf course, the race was won by Unbridled's Note, who was trying grass for the first time. Time of the race was 1:12.45.
Saturday's finale at Santa Anita, Race Number 11, was the initial running of the Grade 1 Unzip Me Stakes. Run over the same course and at the same distance as the previous day's Eddie D Stakes (except for fillies and mares) the race was won by Post Time Favorite Byrama (GB), who covered the six and a half furlongs in 1:12.53.
Besides those two, there was one other race run down the hill at Santa Anita over the past two days, That was Race Number 6 on Friday, a first-level Allowance (NW1$X). The race was won by Sweet Swap, a three year old colt by Candy Ride (ARG) out of a Storm Cat mare, by a clear length and a quarter. Trained by John Sadler, Sweet Swap covered the six and a half furlong course in 1:12.48; quicker than the Grade 1 ladies, and just three hundredths of a second slower than the Grade 3 males.
Remember, now, turf racing is different from other surfaces, and final times don't always tell the whole story. But I think it's fair to say, in this case at least, the final times tell a big part of the story. However, just to be sure, look at the final times of Sunday's three races scheduled to be run down the hill: Race 2 (MSW (S) F&M 3&Up); Race 5 (AOC 3&Up); and Race 7 (CLM $40k-$35k 3&Up). Knowing those final times should provide enough background so that we're sure of what we're seeing.
And what are we seeing? Well, based on the information above, it appears that Sweet Swap is now ready to make the step forward into Graded Stakes company. After winning his debut in August 2011 at Del Mar, Sweet Swap ran in an overnight stakes on the dirt at Santa Anita, where he finished a disappointing fifth, over a dozen lengths behind the winner. After that race, Sweet Swap didn't compete again until last month at Del Mar, when he finished fifth in his first try on the grass.
Because of his prior failure against stakes competition, it's not hard to imagine Sweet Swap being overlooked when he again tries to move up the class ladder; especially when one considers how much weight handicappers place on class in turf races. Should the numbers hold true, Sweet Swap just might be a nice overlay against stiffer competition his next time out.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday was Opening Day at Santa Anita, and the featured race was Race Number 8, the Grade 3 Eddie D Stakes (previously known as the Morvich Stakes, but re-named to honor Hall of Fame Jockey Eddie Delahoussaye). Run at a distance of approximately six and a half furlongs down the El Camino Real turf course, the race was won by Unbridled's Note, who was trying grass for the first time. Time of the race was 1:12.45.
Saturday's finale at Santa Anita, Race Number 11, was the initial running of the Grade 1 Unzip Me Stakes. Run over the same course and at the same distance as the previous day's Eddie D Stakes (except for fillies and mares) the race was won by Post Time Favorite Byrama (GB), who covered the six and a half furlongs in 1:12.53.
Besides those two, there was one other race run down the hill at Santa Anita over the past two days, That was Race Number 6 on Friday, a first-level Allowance (NW1$X). The race was won by Sweet Swap, a three year old colt by Candy Ride (ARG) out of a Storm Cat mare, by a clear length and a quarter. Trained by John Sadler, Sweet Swap covered the six and a half furlong course in 1:12.48; quicker than the Grade 1 ladies, and just three hundredths of a second slower than the Grade 3 males.
Remember, now, turf racing is different from other surfaces, and final times don't always tell the whole story. But I think it's fair to say, in this case at least, the final times tell a big part of the story. However, just to be sure, look at the final times of Sunday's three races scheduled to be run down the hill: Race 2 (MSW (S) F&M 3&Up); Race 5 (AOC 3&Up); and Race 7 (CLM $40k-$35k 3&Up). Knowing those final times should provide enough background so that we're sure of what we're seeing.
And what are we seeing? Well, based on the information above, it appears that Sweet Swap is now ready to make the step forward into Graded Stakes company. After winning his debut in August 2011 at Del Mar, Sweet Swap ran in an overnight stakes on the dirt at Santa Anita, where he finished a disappointing fifth, over a dozen lengths behind the winner. After that race, Sweet Swap didn't compete again until last month at Del Mar, when he finished fifth in his first try on the grass.
Because of his prior failure against stakes competition, it's not hard to imagine Sweet Swap being overlooked when he again tries to move up the class ladder; especially when one considers how much weight handicappers place on class in turf races. Should the numbers hold true, Sweet Swap just might be a nice overlay against stiffer competition his next time out.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Winning Post Position Abnormalities - Update
Well, not really. I mean, I was going to update this story with the latest numbers; honest. But, well, maybe we should start at the beginning:
Back on June 30, I published a post regarding the winning post positions at Calder Race Course, specifically in the dirt sprints. Here's how the numbers looked in that first post:
Calder Race Course Standings - Through June 29, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........277.........57.......... 20.6
2.........277.........24.............8.7
3.........277.........45...........16.2
4.........277.........35...........12.6
5.........277.........31...........11.2
6.........258.........32...........12.4
7.........207.........21...........10.1
8.........123.........19...........15.4
9..........59...........6............10.2
10.........29..........6............20.7
11..........7...........1............14.3
12..........4...........0..............0.0
I thought it somewhat odd that Post Position Number 2 would be doing so poorly; indeed, as you can see, it had a lower Win Percentage than every other Post Position, with the exception of Post Position 12 (which was winless in four starts).
About a month later, on August 1, I re-visited the issue. Here's how the numbers looked then:
Calder Race Course Standings - Through July 31, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........392.........75.......... 19.1
2.........392.........35.............8.9
3.........392.........60...........15.3
4.........391.........48...........12.3
5.........389.........45...........11.6
6.........364.........48...........13.2
7.........294.........32...........10.9
8.........175.........33...........18.9
9..........83...........7.............8.4
10.........39..........8............20.5
11.........10..........1............10.0
12..........5...........0.............0.0
As you can see, while Post Position 2 had improved its standing, it was still not winning anywhere near its fair share of sprint races at CRC.
Now, before I go further, let me state (as I had in the two prior posts) that there are any number of reasons why Post Position 2 would be doing poorly at Calder in sprint races. It could be that PP2 just wasn't getting its fair share of favorites. It could be that PP2 was getting more than its fair share of bad beats. It could just be one of those statistical flukes that just happen sometimes.
So, the plan was to look at the numbers again at the end of August. This, I felt, would be a perfect endpoint, as August 31 marked the end of the 85-day Calder meet, with the 65-day Tropical meet starting September 1.
So, earlier this month, I went to Equibase.com, which had been the source for all the prior stats that you see above. And what did I find?
Nothing.
The Post Position Stats for Calder had been wiped clean.
I figured it was just some system or site glitch; something that would soon be fixed. I figured I'd just check back in a few days.
Didn't help.
For those of you who don't like to click links, here's what you're missing:
Even stranger, if you go to Equibase's Track Profile page for Calder, you'll see there's no option to check the Post Position Stats for the current Tropical meet.
Again, for those of you who are link-adverse:
By the way, if you click on the images they're supposed to get bigger. If they don't, please let me know.
Now, I repeat that all of this could just be just some system or site glitch that will soon be fixed. It's entirely possible that, by the time many of you click the above links, all the numbers will be where they should be.
By the way, for those of you wondering why I don't just take the Post Position stats from some other site: I couldn't find another site that had them. CRC's official site has a "Meet Leaders" page, that will give you stats for Jockeys, Trainers, Owners, and Horses; but not Post Positions. Drf.com, near as I can tell, doesn't provide Post Position stats; at least, not for free; and even then (as near as I can tell) only for the current meet; not for those past. Besides, if it's not a free site, then I can't link to it from here. I suppose someone could just go through the charts and manually log the winning PPs that way; but that's certainly not a job for which I would volunteer.
So, there you have it. When and if the numbers become available, we'll look again at the issue and see if Post Position 2 at Calder Race Course ever did start winning its fair share of sprints. Until then, onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Back on June 30, I published a post regarding the winning post positions at Calder Race Course, specifically in the dirt sprints. Here's how the numbers looked in that first post:
Calder Race Course Standings - Through June 29, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........277.........57.......... 20.6
2.........277.........24.............8.7
3.........277.........45...........16.2
4.........277.........35...........12.6
5.........277.........31...........11.2
6.........258.........32...........12.4
7.........207.........21...........10.1
8.........123.........19...........15.4
9..........59...........6............10.2
10.........29..........6............20.7
11..........7...........1............14.3
12..........4...........0..............0.0
I thought it somewhat odd that Post Position Number 2 would be doing so poorly; indeed, as you can see, it had a lower Win Percentage than every other Post Position, with the exception of Post Position 12 (which was winless in four starts).
About a month later, on August 1, I re-visited the issue. Here's how the numbers looked then:
Calder Race Course Standings - Through July 31, 2012
Sprint Races
PP......Starts......Wins......Win%
1.........392.........75.......... 19.1
2.........392.........35.............8.9
3.........392.........60...........15.3
4.........391.........48...........12.3
5.........389.........45...........11.6
6.........364.........48...........13.2
7.........294.........32...........10.9
8.........175.........33...........18.9
9..........83...........7.............8.4
10.........39..........8............20.5
11.........10..........1............10.0
12..........5...........0.............0.0
As you can see, while Post Position 2 had improved its standing, it was still not winning anywhere near its fair share of sprint races at CRC.
Now, before I go further, let me state (as I had in the two prior posts) that there are any number of reasons why Post Position 2 would be doing poorly at Calder in sprint races. It could be that PP2 just wasn't getting its fair share of favorites. It could be that PP2 was getting more than its fair share of bad beats. It could just be one of those statistical flukes that just happen sometimes.
So, the plan was to look at the numbers again at the end of August. This, I felt, would be a perfect endpoint, as August 31 marked the end of the 85-day Calder meet, with the 65-day Tropical meet starting September 1.
So, earlier this month, I went to Equibase.com, which had been the source for all the prior stats that you see above. And what did I find?
Nothing.
The Post Position Stats for Calder had been wiped clean.
I figured it was just some system or site glitch; something that would soon be fixed. I figured I'd just check back in a few days.
Didn't help.
For those of you who don't like to click links, here's what you're missing:
Even stranger, if you go to Equibase's Track Profile page for Calder, you'll see there's no option to check the Post Position Stats for the current Tropical meet.
Again, for those of you who are link-adverse:
By the way, if you click on the images they're supposed to get bigger. If they don't, please let me know.
Now, I repeat that all of this could just be just some system or site glitch that will soon be fixed. It's entirely possible that, by the time many of you click the above links, all the numbers will be where they should be.
By the way, for those of you wondering why I don't just take the Post Position stats from some other site: I couldn't find another site that had them. CRC's official site has a "Meet Leaders" page, that will give you stats for Jockeys, Trainers, Owners, and Horses; but not Post Positions. Drf.com, near as I can tell, doesn't provide Post Position stats; at least, not for free; and even then (as near as I can tell) only for the current meet; not for those past. Besides, if it's not a free site, then I can't link to it from here. I suppose someone could just go through the charts and manually log the winning PPs that way; but that's certainly not a job for which I would volunteer.
So, there you have it. When and if the numbers become available, we'll look again at the issue and see if Post Position 2 at Calder Race Course ever did start winning its fair share of sprints. Until then, onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Horse Watch Follow-Up - Applauding
Back in July I wrote that Applauding, a three year old filly by Congrats out of a Forestry mare, was back on the track after an extended vacation. To briefly recap, Applauding had set a new track record for six furlongs at Keeneland in her debut on Oct 14, 2011; a race which she won by nine lengths. Applauding followed that victory up with a six length win her next time out, this time on a fast dirt track at Louisiana's Fair Grounds on Dec 2, 2011. Applauding has not raced since, despite no noticeable injury.
On July 28, Applauding returned to the track at Keeneland, working three furlongs in thirty-eight and one-fifth seconds. She had been working at Keeneland every Saturday morning since; breezing three furlongs again on August 5, and then doing four furlongs on each of the next five Saturdays that followed.
However, this Saturday she didn't work at Keeneland. Why that is I can not say, as my limited skills with Google could not turn up any relevant news by searching under her name, nor under the name of her trainer, Al Stall, Jr (who, incidentally, just finished a very productive meeting at Saratoga, where he picked up seven wins, and seventeen in the money finishes, in just twenty-three starts).
So, while this obviously isn't good news, I have no idea if it's bad news; and if so, how bad. It could be that Applauding simply needed a rest; or, it could be that she has suffered an injury. Hopefully, whatever it is, isn't anything serious, and we'll get to see this filly compete again soon. Until then, I'll pass along whatever news I hear, and I ask, if any of you reading this should hear anything, that you share it here as well.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
On July 28, Applauding returned to the track at Keeneland, working three furlongs in thirty-eight and one-fifth seconds. She had been working at Keeneland every Saturday morning since; breezing three furlongs again on August 5, and then doing four furlongs on each of the next five Saturdays that followed.
However, this Saturday she didn't work at Keeneland. Why that is I can not say, as my limited skills with Google could not turn up any relevant news by searching under her name, nor under the name of her trainer, Al Stall, Jr (who, incidentally, just finished a very productive meeting at Saratoga, where he picked up seven wins, and seventeen in the money finishes, in just twenty-three starts).
So, while this obviously isn't good news, I have no idea if it's bad news; and if so, how bad. It could be that Applauding simply needed a rest; or, it could be that she has suffered an injury. Hopefully, whatever it is, isn't anything serious, and we'll get to see this filly compete again soon. Until then, I'll pass along whatever news I hear, and I ask, if any of you reading this should hear anything, that you share it here as well.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 15, 2012
9/15/12 GG R9 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
A couple of weeks ago I posted about City Chapel, a three year old gelding by Chapel Royal that was claimed by Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo out of Race 5 on August 26 at Golden Gate Fields; a race in which City Chapel had competed at Post Time odds of 29.8-1. Saturday, City Chapel made his first start for the Trujillo barn, moving up from the $4k Claiming (NW2L) level into a $12.5k Claiming (NW2L) event. Saturday's race also represented a change of distance and surface for City Chapel, as he stretched out from six to eight and a half furlongs, and exchanged the synthetic main track for some California grass.
City Chapel left the gate at Post Time odds of 30.3-1, and was seventh after the first half mile. City Chapel was still seventh, six lengths back, at the top of the stretch; and, in the words of the chart caller, "came on too late", finishing fifth, three and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Post Time favorite Janero.
Unfortunately for Victor Trujillo, the fifth place finish Saturday was worth the same $260 in purse money as a last place finish would have been; but at least he doesn't have to pay out the trainer's share to anyone. On the positive side, Trujillo was able to move City Chapel several rungs up the class ladder and still have him finish mid-pack; indeed, this was the highest level of competition City Chapel has faced in his career. So maybe Trujillo was right to see something in this gelding that the public and City Chapel's prior connections did not. Time will tell; and I'll be keeping an eye on this story to see how it plays out.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race is available here; while the DRF version of events may be viewed here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
City Chapel left the gate at Post Time odds of 30.3-1, and was seventh after the first half mile. City Chapel was still seventh, six lengths back, at the top of the stretch; and, in the words of the chart caller, "came on too late", finishing fifth, three and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Post Time favorite Janero.
Unfortunately for Victor Trujillo, the fifth place finish Saturday was worth the same $260 in purse money as a last place finish would have been; but at least he doesn't have to pay out the trainer's share to anyone. On the positive side, Trujillo was able to move City Chapel several rungs up the class ladder and still have him finish mid-pack; indeed, this was the highest level of competition City Chapel has faced in his career. So maybe Trujillo was right to see something in this gelding that the public and City Chapel's prior connections did not. Time will tell; and I'll be keeping an eye on this story to see how it plays out.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race is available here; while the DRF version of events may be viewed here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, September 13, 2012
2012 Del Mar - Winning the Close Ones
"George Woolf ran his horses so precisely that he became famous for winning races in the deciding final strides. His timing was so perfect that he didn’t lose a photo finish in a stakes race for 10 years." - "The American Experience" - PBS
"All muscle and business, Pincay was the strongest finisher in the game, who seldom lost a photo finish." - Ray Kerrison - The New York Post
"It was then I saw something I had never seen a "bug rider" do in the past. As a matter of fact, Angel Cordero was the only rider who could make the move look as easy as Libby did. She whipped left handed, then three or four jumps before the wire, she switched to the right. I could see her move clearly. She perfectly timed the finish line and instead of hitting the mare, she flipped her stick and tapped Crystal Run under the chin, barely making contact. It caused the mare to raise her head and I knew she'd win the photo finish." - Peter D. Tattersall - "Or Else...!"
History; legend; fiction; into exactly which category does a jockey's ability to win a photo finish fall? Are there really certain jockeys that consistently fare better than others when the race is tight and the finish is too close to call? Or is winning a photo finish mostly a matter of chance; where sometimes one jockey wins, other times another jockey wins, and it all evens out in the end?
Well. before I get anyone's hopes up, let me assure you that this post will not answer all those questions; certainly not definitively. But maybe this post can help us start to answer those questions; laying a foundation we can build upon so that, in time, we just might know more about the subject than we did when we first began. Or maybe this post will just give us something else to have some fun with, and argue about the next time we converse. Time will tell.
Anyway, a lot of the answers to the questions about which jockeys do best in a photo finish depends on how you frame the questions. Are we interested in Win photos only? Should winning a tight photo for other positions count too? And how are we to define a "photo finish"? Is it anything less than length? Less than a neck? Less than a head? And how do we decide who's the "best"? Is it just the most photo wins? The fewest photo losses? Perhaps the best photo differential (wins vs losses)?
So, with all that as background, here's the parameters I set up for this study:
I would look at all race charts for the recently completed Del Mar meet;
I would record each time a horse finished ahead of a competitor by a nose for one of the top four positions in the race (i.e., finished in the Superfecta);
I would record the winning and losing jockeys;
I would note the horses involved, and their respective Post Time odds.
Having gathered that data, I would determine which jockeys won the most photo finishes during the 2012 Del Mar meet, and which had the best photo finish differential (more wins than losses).
Before I post the results. does anyone want to phantom a guess as to which jockeys came out on top? Take your time; consider your answers. Here, I'll even let you play a little music while you think it over:
Alright; for the 2012 Del Mar meet, there were ninety-eight times when the placement of a horse in one of the top four positions was decided by a nose. The jockeys that were on the winning end of those finishes three or more times are as follows:
Jockey Finished Ahead By a Nose
Rafael Bejarano...............13
Joseph Talamo................11
Garrett Gomez................10
Victor Espinoza................7
Edwin Maldonado.............7
Eswan Flores...................6
Alonso Quinonez..............6
Martin Garcia...................4
Juan Hernandez...............4
Alex Bisono.....................3
Kevin Krigger...................3
Corey Nakatani................3
Martin Pedroza................3
Jose Valdivia Jr................3
Just as a point of reference, the jockeys with the most first place finishes (by all margins) for the Del Mar meet were, in order: Bejarano; Talamo; Gomez; Maldonado; Garcia; and Espinoza. And in the "Having a Good Day Department", all three of Nakatani's photo finishes above were for the Win, and all occurred on the same day (August 12, in Races 3, 7, and 8).
OK; now for the flip side; the jockeys that were on the wrong end of photo finish three or more times:
Jockey Finished Behind By a Nose
Rafael Bejarano..............12
Victor Espinoza...............9
Joseph Talamo................8
Garrett Gomez................7
Kevin Krigger..................7
Martin Pedroza...............7
Agapito Delgadillo...........6
Edwin Maldonado...........6
Brice Blanc....................4
David Flores...................4
Juan Hernandez..............4
Martin Garcia.................3
Alonso Quinonez............3
Jose Valdivia Jr...............3
Patrick Valenzuela..........3
Quite a bit of similarity with the first list, at least on top; but also several new names that weren't on the first list.
Alright; let's put it all together, and see who won more photos than they lost:
Best Jockey Differential (Ahead By a Nose Minus Behind By a Nose)
Eswan Flores..................+5
Garrett Gomez................+3
Alonso Quinonez.............+3
Joseph Talamo................+3
Alex Bisono....................+2
Omar Figueroa................+2
Aaron Gryder..................+2
Surprised?
As for the flip side:
Worst Jockey Differential (Ahead By a Nose Minus Behind By a Nose)
Agapito Delgadillo............-4
Kevin Krigger...................-4
Martin Pedroza................-4
Brice Blanc.....................-3
Patrick Valenzuela..........-3
Victor Espinoza..............-2
David Flores...................-2
Now, keep in mind that all these numbers are based on just one meet; and a Summer meet, at that; so small sample size caveats apply. But, as I mentioned towards the beginning of this post, I think this is a good starting point; Good Lord willing, as time goes on, we'll be able to add more meets from the Southern California circuit, and watch as the full picture develops.
Oh, for those who are wondering how the "better" horse fared in close finishes: in the ninety-eight instances where the placement of a horse in one of the top four positions was decided by a nose, the photo was won by the horse with the lower Post Time odds exactly one-half the time; with the horse with the higher Post Time odds winning the other half (49-49).
I've uploaded the spreadsheet as a Google doc; so hopefully it will be easily accessible to all. You'll notice there are five tabs, as I've broken down the data based upon Finish Position (Win; Place; Show; and Fourth) while the first tab contains all ninety-eight occurrences. You'll also note that some races appear twice; this is because, in some races, more than one of the top four positions was decided by a nose. For that reason, it's possible for a jockey to have both won and lost a photo in the same race. For example, in Race 5 on August 1, Jose Valdivia Jr. lost the photo for Place to Martin Garcia, but won the photo for Show over Alonso Quinonez.
Anyway, play around with the data, and have some fun with it. Oh, and if you think you spot an error, please let me know, so that I can make the necessary corrections.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
"All muscle and business, Pincay was the strongest finisher in the game, who seldom lost a photo finish." - Ray Kerrison - The New York Post
"It was then I saw something I had never seen a "bug rider" do in the past. As a matter of fact, Angel Cordero was the only rider who could make the move look as easy as Libby did. She whipped left handed, then three or four jumps before the wire, she switched to the right. I could see her move clearly. She perfectly timed the finish line and instead of hitting the mare, she flipped her stick and tapped Crystal Run under the chin, barely making contact. It caused the mare to raise her head and I knew she'd win the photo finish." - Peter D. Tattersall - "Or Else...!"
History; legend; fiction; into exactly which category does a jockey's ability to win a photo finish fall? Are there really certain jockeys that consistently fare better than others when the race is tight and the finish is too close to call? Or is winning a photo finish mostly a matter of chance; where sometimes one jockey wins, other times another jockey wins, and it all evens out in the end?
Well. before I get anyone's hopes up, let me assure you that this post will not answer all those questions; certainly not definitively. But maybe this post can help us start to answer those questions; laying a foundation we can build upon so that, in time, we just might know more about the subject than we did when we first began. Or maybe this post will just give us something else to have some fun with, and argue about the next time we converse. Time will tell.
Anyway, a lot of the answers to the questions about which jockeys do best in a photo finish depends on how you frame the questions. Are we interested in Win photos only? Should winning a tight photo for other positions count too? And how are we to define a "photo finish"? Is it anything less than length? Less than a neck? Less than a head? And how do we decide who's the "best"? Is it just the most photo wins? The fewest photo losses? Perhaps the best photo differential (wins vs losses)?
So, with all that as background, here's the parameters I set up for this study:
I would look at all race charts for the recently completed Del Mar meet;
I would record each time a horse finished ahead of a competitor by a nose for one of the top four positions in the race (i.e., finished in the Superfecta);
I would record the winning and losing jockeys;
I would note the horses involved, and their respective Post Time odds.
Having gathered that data, I would determine which jockeys won the most photo finishes during the 2012 Del Mar meet, and which had the best photo finish differential (more wins than losses).
Before I post the results. does anyone want to phantom a guess as to which jockeys came out on top? Take your time; consider your answers. Here, I'll even let you play a little music while you think it over:
Alright; for the 2012 Del Mar meet, there were ninety-eight times when the placement of a horse in one of the top four positions was decided by a nose. The jockeys that were on the winning end of those finishes three or more times are as follows:
Jockey Finished Ahead By a Nose
Rafael Bejarano...............13
Joseph Talamo................11
Garrett Gomez................10
Victor Espinoza................7
Edwin Maldonado.............7
Eswan Flores...................6
Alonso Quinonez..............6
Martin Garcia...................4
Juan Hernandez...............4
Alex Bisono.....................3
Kevin Krigger...................3
Corey Nakatani................3
Martin Pedroza................3
Jose Valdivia Jr................3
Just as a point of reference, the jockeys with the most first place finishes (by all margins) for the Del Mar meet were, in order: Bejarano; Talamo; Gomez; Maldonado; Garcia; and Espinoza. And in the "Having a Good Day Department", all three of Nakatani's photo finishes above were for the Win, and all occurred on the same day (August 12, in Races 3, 7, and 8).
OK; now for the flip side; the jockeys that were on the wrong end of photo finish three or more times:
Jockey Finished Behind By a Nose
Rafael Bejarano..............12
Victor Espinoza...............9
Joseph Talamo................8
Garrett Gomez................7
Kevin Krigger..................7
Martin Pedroza...............7
Agapito Delgadillo...........6
Edwin Maldonado...........6
Brice Blanc....................4
David Flores...................4
Juan Hernandez..............4
Martin Garcia.................3
Alonso Quinonez............3
Jose Valdivia Jr...............3
Patrick Valenzuela..........3
Quite a bit of similarity with the first list, at least on top; but also several new names that weren't on the first list.
Alright; let's put it all together, and see who won more photos than they lost:
Best Jockey Differential (Ahead By a Nose Minus Behind By a Nose)
Eswan Flores..................+5
Garrett Gomez................+3
Alonso Quinonez.............+3
Joseph Talamo................+3
Alex Bisono....................+2
Omar Figueroa................+2
Aaron Gryder..................+2
Surprised?
As for the flip side:
Worst Jockey Differential (Ahead By a Nose Minus Behind By a Nose)
Agapito Delgadillo............-4
Kevin Krigger...................-4
Martin Pedroza................-4
Brice Blanc.....................-3
Patrick Valenzuela..........-3
Victor Espinoza..............-2
David Flores...................-2
Now, keep in mind that all these numbers are based on just one meet; and a Summer meet, at that; so small sample size caveats apply. But, as I mentioned towards the beginning of this post, I think this is a good starting point; Good Lord willing, as time goes on, we'll be able to add more meets from the Southern California circuit, and watch as the full picture develops.
Oh, for those who are wondering how the "better" horse fared in close finishes: in the ninety-eight instances where the placement of a horse in one of the top four positions was decided by a nose, the photo was won by the horse with the lower Post Time odds exactly one-half the time; with the horse with the higher Post Time odds winning the other half (49-49).
I've uploaded the spreadsheet as a Google doc; so hopefully it will be easily accessible to all. You'll notice there are five tabs, as I've broken down the data based upon Finish Position (Win; Place; Show; and Fourth) while the first tab contains all ninety-eight occurrences. You'll also note that some races appear twice; this is because, in some races, more than one of the top four positions was decided by a nose. For that reason, it's possible for a jockey to have both won and lost a photo in the same race. For example, in Race 5 on August 1, Jose Valdivia Jr. lost the photo for Place to Martin Garcia, but won the photo for Show over Alonso Quinonez.
Anyway, play around with the data, and have some fun with it. Oh, and if you think you spot an error, please let me know, so that I can make the necessary corrections.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, September 10, 2012
2012 Del Mar - Ship and Win
Back in May Del Mar announced that it was bringing back the popular "Ship and Win" promotion for its 2012 meet. Simply stated, the program was designed to entice owners and trainers to bring out-of-state horses to Southern California to compete by offering monetary rewards. Every horse that started at Del Mar this year after having run its previous race out of state would receive a flat $1000 appearance fee. In addition, such horses would also receive a 25% bonus to any purse money earned in non-stakes races.
A total of 137 horses started at Del Mar this year after having run their previous race outside California; an increase of 28% over last year's 107. By my count, a total of twelve non-stakes (repeat: non-stakes) races were won this year at Del Mar by horses who had run their last prior race out of state. For those curious, listed below are the dozen imports who beat the local heroes at Del Mar this Summer:
DATE/RACE #...........HORSE.........................TRAINER....................PREVIOUS RACETRACK
July 19 Race 7............Lindz Winz..................Barry Abrams....................Belmont Park
July 20 Race 3............Blushing Martha...........Doug O'Neill......................Belmont Park
July 20 Race 5............Arabian Storm.............John Sadler........................Turf Paradise
July 21 Race 5............Shadow Runner...........Michael Machowsky...........Calder Race Course
August 3 Race 1.........Gal Has to Like It.........Craig Dollase.....................Calder Race Course
August 8 Race 8.........Wishing Gate...............Thomas Proctor.................Arlington Park
August 11 Race 4.......Bronze Fox..................Vann Belvoir......................SunRay Park
August 19 Race 1.......Tiz Gianni.....................John Shirreffs....................Sunland Park
August 23 Race 7.......Zimmer........................Patrick Byrne....................Churchill Downs
August 25 Race 9.......Appealing Resume.......Ed Moger, Jr......................Emerald Downs
August 30 Race 4.......Allura..........................Dan Hendricks...................Belmont Park
August 30 Race 7.......Royal Encounter..........Mike Mitchell.....................Sam Houston Park
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
A total of 137 horses started at Del Mar this year after having run their previous race outside California; an increase of 28% over last year's 107. By my count, a total of twelve non-stakes (repeat: non-stakes) races were won this year at Del Mar by horses who had run their last prior race out of state. For those curious, listed below are the dozen imports who beat the local heroes at Del Mar this Summer:
DATE/RACE #...........HORSE.........................TRAINER....................PREVIOUS RACETRACK
July 19 Race 7............Lindz Winz..................Barry Abrams....................Belmont Park
July 20 Race 3............Blushing Martha...........Doug O'Neill......................Belmont Park
July 20 Race 5............Arabian Storm.............John Sadler........................Turf Paradise
July 21 Race 5............Shadow Runner...........Michael Machowsky...........Calder Race Course
August 3 Race 1.........Gal Has to Like It.........Craig Dollase.....................Calder Race Course
August 8 Race 8.........Wishing Gate...............Thomas Proctor.................Arlington Park
August 11 Race 4.......Bronze Fox..................Vann Belvoir......................SunRay Park
August 19 Race 1.......Tiz Gianni.....................John Shirreffs....................Sunland Park
August 23 Race 7.......Zimmer........................Patrick Byrne....................Churchill Downs
August 25 Race 9.......Appealing Resume.......Ed Moger, Jr......................Emerald Downs
August 30 Race 4.......Allura..........................Dan Hendricks...................Belmont Park
August 30 Race 7.......Royal Encounter..........Mike Mitchell.....................Sam Houston Park
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 9, 2012
9/7 - 9/8/12 FPX - The Crowd Gets It Wrong
For those who may be unaware, Fairplex Park (a.k.a. the "Let's Take a Vacation Between Del Mar and Santa Anita" Meet) opened this past Friday. First up on the card were the Arabian horses, in a six furlong contest won by the 4-5 Post Time favorite, BURNIN RUBBER. BURNIN RUBBER would be the only Post Time favorite to win at Fairplex on Friday, as nine thoroughbred races came and went without the public consensus correctly landing on the winning horse. The public's futility was perhaps best illustrated in the Pick 6 payouts Friday; not only did nobody correctly pick six, nobody (and I mean NO-BOD-EE) was able to correctly pick five! The best anyone could do Friday was get four of the six winners right; and that was rare enough that all who did received a free W-2G along with their winnings of $705.80 for every two dollars wagered.
The public didn't fare much better Saturday, as only one Post Time favorite, Heart Fever, in Race 5, was able to cross the finish line ahead of the rest of the field (for those scoring at home, the Pick 6 Saturday again went un-hit; though a few tickets did have five correct, giving their holders $3872.40 for every two dollars bet). That means the public consensus went on a thirteen race losing streak, and has (so far, as I write this) correctly picked just one winner in twenty thoroughbred contests at Fairplex Park.
Now, when I wrote about the wagering herd losing its way last month, I was communicating a relatively rare phenomenon, as the public can usually be counted on to pick the winner of a thoroughbred race about a third of the time. But all that goes out the window when the action moves to a meet like Fairplex, where races are run for only a brief period over a track that's contoured in a totally different manner from the other tracks on the circuit (see also Kentucky Downs for a similar experience). Such meets, especially on their first few days, replace the art of handicapping with gambling in its almost purest form, turning horse racing into little more than animated roulette (thank you, Roger Kahn). Don't just take my word for it; read someone else's words on the topic, and draw your own conclusions.
Now, all this doesn't mean that you can't win; it doesn't even mean that you won't win. What it does mean is that, if you simply must play tracks such as Fairplex, accept the fact that standard handicapping is not going to get the job done; and proceed with caution (or, better yet, don't proceed at all) when it comes to diving too deep into any of the pools.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The public didn't fare much better Saturday, as only one Post Time favorite, Heart Fever, in Race 5, was able to cross the finish line ahead of the rest of the field (for those scoring at home, the Pick 6 Saturday again went un-hit; though a few tickets did have five correct, giving their holders $3872.40 for every two dollars bet). That means the public consensus went on a thirteen race losing streak, and has (so far, as I write this) correctly picked just one winner in twenty thoroughbred contests at Fairplex Park.
Now, when I wrote about the wagering herd losing its way last month, I was communicating a relatively rare phenomenon, as the public can usually be counted on to pick the winner of a thoroughbred race about a third of the time. But all that goes out the window when the action moves to a meet like Fairplex, where races are run for only a brief period over a track that's contoured in a totally different manner from the other tracks on the circuit (see also Kentucky Downs for a similar experience). Such meets, especially on their first few days, replace the art of handicapping with gambling in its almost purest form, turning horse racing into little more than animated roulette (thank you, Roger Kahn). Don't just take my word for it; read someone else's words on the topic, and draw your own conclusions.
Now, all this doesn't mean that you can't win; it doesn't even mean that you won't win. What it does mean is that, if you simply must play tracks such as Fairplex, accept the fact that standard handicapping is not going to get the job done; and proceed with caution (or, better yet, don't proceed at all) when it comes to diving too deep into any of the pools.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, September 7, 2012
8/4/12 DMR Race 5 - Key Race
Among the many things that Rolling Fog's victory in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity on Wednesday did, was that it elevated his debut race on August 4 into key race status. Dirty Swag, fifth in the August 4 contest, is the other next out winner from that race, having been first to the wire in Race 7 at Del Mar on September 1.
Others from the August 4 affair who have already come back are: fourth place finisher Anytime (seventh in Race 4 at Del Mar on September 2); sixth place finisher Sexyuknowit (sixth in Race 2 at Del Mar August 24); and seventh place finisher Derekson (ninth in Race 5 at Del Mar on August 17).
Yet to race again are Power Ped and Modern (who formed the bottom two thirds of the key race Trifecta); along with Divo and Regally Soul, the bottom two overall finishers in the August 4 race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Others from the August 4 affair who have already come back are: fourth place finisher Anytime (seventh in Race 4 at Del Mar on September 2); sixth place finisher Sexyuknowit (sixth in Race 2 at Del Mar August 24); and seventh place finisher Derekson (ninth in Race 5 at Del Mar on August 17).
Yet to race again are Power Ped and Modern (who formed the bottom two thirds of the key race Trifecta); along with Divo and Regally Soul, the bottom two overall finishers in the August 4 race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, September 6, 2012
7/26/12 SR Race 6 - Key Race - Update
Key Race 7/26/12 SR Race 6, first noted here August 15, has now come back in full:
Lady's Plan - 4th 8/24/12 GG Race 1
Spiced Latte - WIN 9/2/12 GG Race 8
Tribal Delight - PLACE 8/9/12 SR Race 7
Hill of Tara - WIN 8/9/12 SR Race 7
Sahha - 4th 8/19/12 GG Race 2
Hey Maria - 6th 8/9/12 SR Race 7
Crantini - 7th 9/2/12 GG Race 8
Beezaroo - SHOW 9/2/12 GG Race 8
Que Classico - 5th 8/25/12 GG Race 5
Atticus' Ghost - WIN 8/11/12 SR Race 8
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Lady's Plan - 4th 8/24/12 GG Race 1
Spiced Latte - WIN 9/2/12 GG Race 8
Tribal Delight - PLACE 8/9/12 SR Race 7
Hill of Tara - WIN 8/9/12 SR Race 7
Sahha - 4th 8/19/12 GG Race 2
Hey Maria - 6th 8/9/12 SR Race 7
Crantini - 7th 9/2/12 GG Race 8
Beezaroo - SHOW 9/2/12 GG Race 8
Que Classico - 5th 8/25/12 GG Race 5
Atticus' Ghost - WIN 8/11/12 SR Race 8
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
9/3/12 DMR R10 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
As promised in my post of August 18, we continue to follow the exploits of Paralyzing Eyes (with our bankrolls safely tucked away in our pockets). Paralyzing Eyes made her fourth career start Labor Day, in Race 10 at Del Mar, going six furlongs on the synthetic main track. The mount went to Jockey Martin Pedroza, who had been aboard for Paralyzing Eyes' debut back in June. The result was predictable.
Here's some interesting consistencies in Paralyzing Eyes' career: All four of her starts have been at the same class level (State Bred/Sired Maiden Special Weight); in her three sprints, her Post Time odds have been 56.X-1 (56.1-1 in her debut; 56.7-1 in the August 17 contest; and 56.4-1 on Monday); and in all four career starts, Paralyzing Eyes has finished next-to-last, each and every time. To be honest, I'm not sure which I find more impressive: the fact that she manages to get virtually the exact amount of backing relative to the total pool each time she sprints; or the fact that every time she's run, she's managed to find one (and just one) other horse in the field to beat to the wire.
As I wrote previously, I find this kind of story compelling; perhaps because it's a part of the game that gets so (relatively) little coverage. I'm curious to see just how many more starts at this level Trainer Bruce Jackson will give this filly before either retiring her for breeding purposes, or dropping her in for a tag and taking a chance on losing her on a claim. I'm genuinely interested in seeing how this all plays out.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Here's some interesting consistencies in Paralyzing Eyes' career: All four of her starts have been at the same class level (State Bred/Sired Maiden Special Weight); in her three sprints, her Post Time odds have been 56.X-1 (56.1-1 in her debut; 56.7-1 in the August 17 contest; and 56.4-1 on Monday); and in all four career starts, Paralyzing Eyes has finished next-to-last, each and every time. To be honest, I'm not sure which I find more impressive: the fact that she manages to get virtually the exact amount of backing relative to the total pool each time she sprints; or the fact that every time she's run, she's managed to find one (and just one) other horse in the field to beat to the wire.
As I wrote previously, I find this kind of story compelling; perhaps because it's a part of the game that gets so (relatively) little coverage. I'm curious to see just how many more starts at this level Trainer Bruce Jackson will give this filly before either retiring her for breeding purposes, or dropping her in for a tag and taking a chance on losing her on a claim. I'm genuinely interested in seeing how this all plays out.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, September 3, 2012
9/2/12 DMR Race 6 - Horse Watch
Goldencents, a two year old colt by Into Mischief out of a Banker's Gold mare, made his debut in Sunday's sixth race at Del Mar, an MSW run at a distance of five and a half furlongs over the it's not really dirt main track. Goldencents covered the first half mile in a rather unmemorable 46.15; nearly a full second slower than the 45.25 posted just two races earlier, in another five and a half furlong MSW for two year olds over the main track. But after that uninspiring half, Goldencents turned on the afterburners, running the next furlong in an incredible 10.95 seconds, and the final one hundred ten yards in 5.69; thus making for a final time of 1:02.79, less than a tenth of a second slower than the track record for the distance of 1:02.70 set by Sister Moon in her debut in August 2011.
Goldencents is trained by Doug O'Neill (actually Leandro Mora; but, well, you know) so it's no surprise that he would win at first asking; indeed, he went to Post as the 8-5 favorite. You can also make the case that the Del Mar surface was playing unusually fast Sunday; after all, the previous race on the card saw Potesta, winner of the Grade 2 Hollywood Oaks in June, set a new track record for eight furlongs in the Torrey Pines Stakes. But even with those caveats, I think Goldencents' victory should be viewed as a truly special effort, and he should be marked as a horse worthy of strong consideration as he moves up the class ladder.
I'm also going to recommend that three other first time starters from this field be placed on your respective watch lists:
Place horse Wild Dude, who, while a comfortable seven and a quarter lengths behind Goldencents, bested the rest of the field by over two lengths;
Storm Power and Uno Dos Adios, the Show horse and fifth place finisher, respectively, who were the only two runners in the field to gain ground on Goldencents in that final half furlong.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Goldencents is trained by Doug O'Neill (actually Leandro Mora; but, well, you know) so it's no surprise that he would win at first asking; indeed, he went to Post as the 8-5 favorite. You can also make the case that the Del Mar surface was playing unusually fast Sunday; after all, the previous race on the card saw Potesta, winner of the Grade 2 Hollywood Oaks in June, set a new track record for eight furlongs in the Torrey Pines Stakes. But even with those caveats, I think Goldencents' victory should be viewed as a truly special effort, and he should be marked as a horse worthy of strong consideration as he moves up the class ladder.
I'm also going to recommend that three other first time starters from this field be placed on your respective watch lists:
Place horse Wild Dude, who, while a comfortable seven and a quarter lengths behind Goldencents, bested the rest of the field by over two lengths;
Storm Power and Uno Dos Adios, the Show horse and fifth place finisher, respectively, who were the only two runners in the field to gain ground on Goldencents in that final half furlong.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 2, 2012
9/1/12 DMR R8 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
See, this is what's supposed to happen when you put a horse on your watch list: she goes out and wins at a healthy price. Back on August 12, I wrote that "Self Preservation is worthy of a good, long look her next time out." Well, hopefully you dear readers did more than just look at this filly, as she came on from tenth place at first call to win Saturday's 8th Race at Del Mar by a length and a quarter, paying $10.40 / $6.00 / $4.20. And if you had the good sense to pair up Self Preservation with Executiveprivilege, the 4-5 Post Time Favorite in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante, then you were rewarded with a Daily Double that paid $18.60 for a deuce.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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