9/28/12 SA Race 6 - Horse Watch

Alright; Fairplex is over, and Santa Anita has begun its "All Our Old Stakes Have New Names" Meet; which means it's time for me to get back to work.

Friday was Opening Day at Santa Anita, and the featured race was Race Number 8, the Grade 3 Eddie D Stakes (previously known as the Morvich Stakes, but re-named to honor Hall of Fame Jockey Eddie Delahoussaye).  Run at a distance of approximately six and a half furlongs down the El Camino Real turf course, the race was won by Unbridled's Note, who was trying grass for the first time.  Time of the race was 1:12.45.

Saturday's finale at Santa Anita, Race Number 11, was the initial running of the Grade 1 Unzip Me Stakes.  Run over the same course and at the same distance as the previous day's Eddie D Stakes (except for fillies and mares) the race was won by Post Time Favorite Byrama (GB), who covered the six and a half furlongs in 1:12.53.

Besides those two, there was one other race run down the hill at Santa Anita over the past two days,  That was Race Number 6 on Friday, a first-level Allowance (NW1$X).  The race was won by Sweet Swap, a three year old colt by Candy Ride (ARG) out of a Storm Cat mare, by a clear length and a quarter.  Trained by John Sadler, Sweet Swap covered the six and a half furlong course in 1:12.48; quicker than the Grade 1 ladies, and just three hundredths of a second slower than the Grade 3 males.

Remember, now, turf racing is different from other surfaces, and final times don't always tell the whole story.  But I think it's fair to say, in this case at least, the final times tell a big part of the story.  However, just to be sure, look at the final times of Sunday's three races scheduled to be run down the hill: Race 2 (MSW (S) F&M 3&Up); Race 5 (AOC 3&Up); and Race 7 (CLM $40k-$35k 3&Up).  Knowing those final times should provide enough background so that we're sure of what we're seeing.

And what are we seeing?  Well, based on the information above, it appears that Sweet Swap is now ready to make the step forward into Graded Stakes company.  After winning his debut in August 2011 at Del Mar, Sweet Swap ran in an overnight stakes on the dirt at Santa Anita, where he finished a disappointing fifth, over a dozen lengths behind the winner.  After that race, Sweet Swap didn't compete again until last month at Del Mar, when he finished fifth in his first try on the grass.

Because of his prior failure against stakes competition, it's not hard to imagine Sweet Swap being overlooked when he again tries to move up the class ladder; especially when one considers how much weight handicappers place on class in turf races.  Should the numbers hold true, Sweet Swap just might be a nice overlay against stiffer competition his next time out.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo