Race 6 - # 4 Tell Me More (Final Odds 1.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 11 King Cause (23.60) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The San Simeon - # 4 Belvoir Bay (GB) (2.80) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Eagle Screams (3.10*) - "B" Selection
Long story short: I put the wrong Doug O'Neill runner on the main ticket in the second leg. First time starter and "B" Selection # 5 Aurora d'Oro (2.60) faded early and finished ninth; while King Cause crossed under the wire first, three quarters of a length in front of the "other" Baffert, # 12 Victory Element (15.30). Incidentally, the O'Neill / Baffert Exacta paid $285.70 for a buck; a very nice price for a result with those two trainers on top.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 11 / 4 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $416.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, April 29, 2018
4/29/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
The Grade 3 San Simeon is the featured race on Sunday's card in Arcadia. I'll be looking at that contest below, as well as an open claiming race and a pair of maiden events, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Temple Princess (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 4 Tell Me More (ML 6-5)
# 8 See the World (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Majestic Design (ML 5-1)
Temple Princess drops in for a tag for the first time in her career, as well as returning to her preferred surface. Tell Me More has finished in the Trifecta in all but one of her eight career starts. Tell Me More has also failed as the Post Time Favorite in half of her competitions. So Tell Me More can certainly win at this class level; though 6-5 may be way too short of a price to accept to find out if she will.
See the World can outrun her odds if she can settle early. Majestic Design took the Show at this class level two starts back.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Bobby Axelrod (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Lontani (ML 6-1)
# 2 Upo (ML 8-1)
# 5 Aurora d'Oro (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Pioneerofthestorm (ML 15-1)
# 10 Wicken Fen (ML 15-1)
# 11 King Cause (ML 10-1)
# 12 Victory Element (ML 8-1)
# 13 Bocephus (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 8 Geocas Dream (ML 50-1). Bring in # 13 Bocephus (ML 10-1) off the Also Eligible list to take his place.
Bobby Axelrod and Lontani each took the Place in their respective debuts at this class level in separate contests last time out. Upo took the Show at this class level last time out, and may benefit from having to cover less real estate today. Aurora d'Oro seems to have landed in a tough spot for his debut; but I think the way Aurora d'Oro has been working out justifies his spot on the main ticket.
Pioneerofthestorm, Wicked Fen, and Victory Element are three more first time starters that could upset the apple cart. King Cause and Bocephus each took the Show last time out in separate contests.
RACE 8 - The San Simeon (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Coniah (ML 4-1)
# 4 Belvoir Bay (GB) (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Miss Julia Star (Fr) (ML 15-1)
# 5 Isotherm (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 1 Conquest Tsunami (ML 8-5) and # 6 Double Touch (GB) (ML 12-1)
Belvoir Bay (GB) won the Mizdirection last time out charging down the Santa Anita hill, with Coniah less than a length behind. Miss Julia Star (Fr) could improve off the layoff. Isotherm has enough back class where he could win here, though I suspect this contest is just a tune up for a longer outing, as Isotherm seems to prefer covering more ground.
RACE 9 - Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Roaring Rule (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Gentrified (ML 5-1)
# 2 Shackleford Blues (ML 6-1)
# 3 Eagle Screams (ML 3-1)
# 8 Muchos Besos (ML 6-1)
C's
# 6 Ground Rules (ML 8-1)
# 7 Howdy (ML 15-1)
# 10 Sanavi (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 11 Most Determined (ML 20-1), who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list
Roaring Rule moves up in class after a sharp victory last time out. Gentrified took the Place against more expensive stock two starts back. Shackleford Blues took the Place behind Roaring Rules last time out. Eagle Screams drops in class and could be best here; but the career oh-for-eleven on Fast dirt tracks is more than a bit of a concern.
Muchos Besos won at this level last time out; though getting the early lead today may prove to be a bit more of a challenge. Ground Rules has won in the past going first off the layoff. Howdy could move up with the class drop. Sanavi could improve with the change in barn.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 4 with 3,4 with 9 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,7,8 with 1,2,4,5 with 3,4 with 1,2,3,8,9 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 3,4 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 6,10,11,12,13 with 3,4 with 9 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 2,5 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 3,4 with 6,7,10 $3.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:09 EDT / 2:09 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Temple Princess (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 4 Tell Me More (ML 6-5)
# 8 See the World (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Majestic Design (ML 5-1)
Temple Princess drops in for a tag for the first time in her career, as well as returning to her preferred surface. Tell Me More has finished in the Trifecta in all but one of her eight career starts. Tell Me More has also failed as the Post Time Favorite in half of her competitions. So Tell Me More can certainly win at this class level; though 6-5 may be way too short of a price to accept to find out if she will.
See the World can outrun her odds if she can settle early. Majestic Design took the Show at this class level two starts back.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Bobby Axelrod (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Lontani (ML 6-1)
# 2 Upo (ML 8-1)
# 5 Aurora d'Oro (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Pioneerofthestorm (ML 15-1)
# 10 Wicken Fen (ML 15-1)
# 11 King Cause (ML 10-1)
# 12 Victory Element (ML 8-1)
# 13 Bocephus (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 8 Geocas Dream (ML 50-1). Bring in # 13 Bocephus (ML 10-1) off the Also Eligible list to take his place.
Bobby Axelrod and Lontani each took the Place in their respective debuts at this class level in separate contests last time out. Upo took the Show at this class level last time out, and may benefit from having to cover less real estate today. Aurora d'Oro seems to have landed in a tough spot for his debut; but I think the way Aurora d'Oro has been working out justifies his spot on the main ticket.
Pioneerofthestorm, Wicked Fen, and Victory Element are three more first time starters that could upset the apple cart. King Cause and Bocephus each took the Show last time out in separate contests.
RACE 8 - The San Simeon (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Coniah (ML 4-1)
# 4 Belvoir Bay (GB) (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Miss Julia Star (Fr) (ML 15-1)
# 5 Isotherm (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 1 Conquest Tsunami (ML 8-5) and # 6 Double Touch (GB) (ML 12-1)
Belvoir Bay (GB) won the Mizdirection last time out charging down the Santa Anita hill, with Coniah less than a length behind. Miss Julia Star (Fr) could improve off the layoff. Isotherm has enough back class where he could win here, though I suspect this contest is just a tune up for a longer outing, as Isotherm seems to prefer covering more ground.
RACE 9 - Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Roaring Rule (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Gentrified (ML 5-1)
# 2 Shackleford Blues (ML 6-1)
# 3 Eagle Screams (ML 3-1)
# 8 Muchos Besos (ML 6-1)
C's
# 6 Ground Rules (ML 8-1)
# 7 Howdy (ML 15-1)
# 10 Sanavi (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 11 Most Determined (ML 20-1), who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list
Roaring Rule moves up in class after a sharp victory last time out. Gentrified took the Place against more expensive stock two starts back. Shackleford Blues took the Place behind Roaring Rules last time out. Eagle Screams drops in class and could be best here; but the career oh-for-eleven on Fast dirt tracks is more than a bit of a concern.
Muchos Besos won at this level last time out; though getting the early lead today may prove to be a bit more of a challenge. Ground Rules has won in the past going first off the layoff. Howdy could move up with the class drop. Sanavi could improve with the change in barn.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 4 with 3,4 with 9 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,7,8 with 1,2,4,5 with 3,4 with 1,2,3,8,9 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 3,4 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 6,10,11,12,13 with 3,4 with 9 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 2,5 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 3,4 with 6,7,10 $3.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:09 EDT / 2:09 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 28, 2018
4/28/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - # 4 Passionate Reward (Final Odds 7.00) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Loving Lynda (2.70) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Durango (2.20*) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 9 Skelton Pass (1.20*) - "B" Selection
When I first handicapped Saturday's 8th Race a couple of days ago, I noted Passionate Reward's bullet work on March 31 and decided that I needed to include him on my main ticket in his debut. When I was putting my play together earlier today I made sure that Passionate Reward was on the main ticket. When it came time to make my final cuts because the play was way over budget, I decided that # 8 Rumpus Cat (1.00*) was just too good; and so at the last possible moment Passionate Reward was dropped from the main ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 7 / 6 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $210.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - # 7 Loving Lynda (2.70) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 6 Durango (2.20*) - "B" Selection
Race 11 - # 9 Skelton Pass (1.20*) - "B" Selection
When I first handicapped Saturday's 8th Race a couple of days ago, I noted Passionate Reward's bullet work on March 31 and decided that I needed to include him on my main ticket in his debut. When I was putting my play together earlier today I made sure that Passionate Reward was on the main ticket. When it came time to make my final cuts because the play was way over budget, I decided that # 8 Rumpus Cat (1.00*) was just too good; and so at the last possible moment Passionate Reward was dropped from the main ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 7 / 6 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $210.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/28/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Saturday's card in Arcadia features a pair of Graded Stakes; neither of which found their way onto the final four contests on the program. What we have instead is a quartet containing a non-winners of two, as well as a pair of non-winners of one. But what the sequence lacks in class it certainly makes up for in competitiveness. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Rumpus Cat (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 11 Jimmy Chila (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Capall (ML 6-1)
# 3 Captain Buzzkill (ML 12-1)
# 4 Passionate Reward (ML 8-1)
# 6 Blitzkrieg (ML 8-1)
# 7 Fire Rooster (ML 15-1)
# 9 Englander (ML 6-1)
# 10 Belden Avenue (ML 10-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Forecheck (ML 15-1) and # 14 Upo (ML 6-1)
Rumpus Cat is the only runner in this field with experience charging down the hill, having taken the Place over this course at this class level last time out. Jimmy Chila came closest to graduation in his five prior starts in his one previous try on the grass.
Capall took the Place two starts back against non-Claiming Maidens over the synthetic main track at Golden Gate. Captain Buzzkill could be ready to roll after the extended vacation.
Passionate Reward and Blitzkrieg are a pair of first time starts for Trainer Richard Mandella who have been working well for this. Fire Rooster, a debut runner for Trainer Phil D'Amato, looks well bred for the turf; as does Belden Avenue, who is trained by John Sadler. Englander appears well bred for the turf, and could move up with the surface switch.
RACE 9 - (F) [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Miss Ricochet (ML 2-1)
B's
# 2 Coco Kisses (ML 4-1)
# 7 Loving Lynda (ML 5-2)
C's
RACE 8 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Rumpus Cat (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 11 Jimmy Chila (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Capall (ML 6-1)
# 3 Captain Buzzkill (ML 12-1)
# 4 Passionate Reward (ML 8-1)
# 6 Blitzkrieg (ML 8-1)
# 7 Fire Rooster (ML 15-1)
# 9 Englander (ML 6-1)
# 10 Belden Avenue (ML 10-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Forecheck (ML 15-1) and # 14 Upo (ML 6-1)
Rumpus Cat is the only runner in this field with experience charging down the hill, having taken the Place over this course at this class level last time out. Jimmy Chila came closest to graduation in his five prior starts in his one previous try on the grass.
Capall took the Place two starts back against non-Claiming Maidens over the synthetic main track at Golden Gate. Captain Buzzkill could be ready to roll after the extended vacation.
Passionate Reward and Blitzkrieg are a pair of first time starts for Trainer Richard Mandella who have been working well for this. Fire Rooster, a debut runner for Trainer Phil D'Amato, looks well bred for the turf; as does Belden Avenue, who is trained by John Sadler. Englander appears well bred for the turf, and could move up with the surface switch.
RACE 9 - (F) [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Miss Ricochet (ML 2-1)
B's
# 2 Coco Kisses (ML 4-1)
# 7 Loving Lynda (ML 5-2)
C's
# 6 Fight Lika Girl (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 Got an Obsession (ML 8-1)
Miss Ricochet makes her 2018 debut, having taken the Place in each of her three 2017 starts. The sharp work Miss Ricochet had over this main track earlier this month suggests that she's ready to roll.
Coco Kisses took a step backwards last time out after having taken the Place in her debut two starts back; perhaps Coco Kisses can return to that earlier form. Loving Lynda took the Place in her debut at this class level last time out. Fight Lika Girl is a first time starter out of Perfectly Pretty, who has produced eight winners from eight starters, including multiple Graded Stakes winner Idiot Proof.
RACE 10 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Cow Dog (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 5 Allie's Love (ML 6-1)
# 6 Duranga (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Reckless Charm (ML 7-2)
# 7 Estherfourfourteen (ML 6-1)
Cow Dog took the Place against classier competition last time out. Alli's Love graduated by daylight last time out. Duranga could move up with the class drop.
Reckless Charm has the talent to win here, but seems to settle for too many minor awards. Estherfourfourteen could be the speed of the speed.
RACE 11 - Clm $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Reign On (GB) (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Secreto Primero (ML 5-1)
# 5 Pick One (ML 30-1)
# 9 Skelton Pass (ML 7-2)
# 10 General Ike (ML 6-1)
# 12 Calvert Street (ML 8-1)
C's
# 2 Yes Yes Yes (ML 6-1)
# 4 Banze No Oeste (Brz) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Madelyn's Wild Max (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligible, # 13 Rprettyboyfloyd (ML 20-1)
Reign On was victorious against more expensive stock last time out; with Pick One (who did most of the heavy lifting in that contest) filling out the Superfecta behind him. Secreto Primero took the Place at this class level two starts back.
Skelton Pass took the Show at this class level two starts back. General Ike goes second off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with such. Calvert Street returns after an extended layoff to run for a tag; definitely a red flag, though Calvert Street can certainly win at this class level.
Yes Yes Yes goes first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who is often successful with such. Banze No Oeste (Brz) could be the one running best late. Madelyn's Wild Max fits well at this class level, though he did not fare well in his only prior try on the grass.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 5 with 2 with 3 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 8,11 with 2,5,7 with 2,5,6 with 1,3,5,9,10,12 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,6,7,9,10 with 5 with 2 with 3 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 6 with 2 with 3 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 5 with 1,7 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 5 with 2 with 2,4,11 $1.50
Total: $61.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:44 EDT / 3:44 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, April 22, 2018
4/22/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - The San Juan Capistrano - # 2 Nessy (Final Odds 0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 8 Hoffenheim (13.20) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 I'll Wrap It Up (5.60) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Red Shelby (2.50) - "B" Selection
Hoffenheim, last a winner in 2016, was able to make it to the post only twice in 2017, losing those two contests to two rivals that he faced at Santa Anita on Sunday, # 2 Top of the Game (2.10*) and # 5 Ike Walker (4.20). However, since being claimed by Trainer David Jacobson, Hoffenheim has shown steady improvement in his 2018 outings, culminating in his victory Sunday by three lengths; and it was my failure to predict Hoffenheim's continual improvement that made Sunday a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 8 / 6 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $281.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 8 Hoffenheim (13.20) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 I'll Wrap It Up (5.60) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Red Shelby (2.50) - "B" Selection
Hoffenheim, last a winner in 2016, was able to make it to the post only twice in 2017, losing those two contests to two rivals that he faced at Santa Anita on Sunday, # 2 Top of the Game (2.10*) and # 5 Ike Walker (4.20). However, since being claimed by Trainer David Jacobson, Hoffenheim has shown steady improvement in his 2018 outings, culminating in his victory Sunday by three lengths; and it was my failure to predict Hoffenheim's continual improvement that made Sunday a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 8 / 6 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $281.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/22/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Sunday's featured race in Arcadia is the Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano, an event that begins at the top of the Santa Anita hill and goes on forever, touching every blade of grass on the turf course. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - The San Juan Capistrano (Grade 3) - Fourteen Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Nessy (Morning Line 6-5)
B's
None
C's
RACE 6 - The San Juan Capistrano (Grade 3) - Fourteen Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Nessy (Morning Line 6-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 A Red Tie Day (ML 6-1)
# 3 Evo Campo (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 4 Lazzam (GB) (ML 5-1)
# 5 Principal Bob (ML 20-1)
# 6 Moonman (ML 20-1)
# 7 Rye (ML 3-1)
Nessy looks to be the clear best here on talent, and it certainly looks like he can run all day, which is approximately today's distance. But Nessy has proven to be more than a bit camera shy in the past, getting his picture taken only twice in his twenty race career, and never in a stakes (listed or graded). Which is certainly a bit of a concern, especially with Morning Line odds of just 6-5.
Beyond Nessy, in my opinion there's no clear second choice in this field. So it's either single Nessy or hit the "ALL" button; and there's no way my budget allows me to go "ALL" in any leg of this sequence, which features at least three very competitive fields. So Nessy as a single it is.
The backup "C" Selections are everyone else. There's no reason to get cute here. So if Nessy can't get the job done, at least the play won't suffer a first round knockout.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Top of the Game (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Multiplier (ML 4-1)
# 3 Clear the Mine (ML 9-2)
# 5 Ike Walker (ML 7-2)
C's
# 4 Sorry Erik (ML 8-1)
# 7 Horse Greedy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Hoffenheim (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Law Abidin Citizen (ML 6-1)
Top of the Game gets some much needed class relief, as well as a cutback in real estate, both of which should help his cause considerably. Multiplier lost all chance at the start last time out, and should move up today. Besides, Multiplier has a history of winning on this day, having taken the Illinois Derby on April 22, 2017.
Clear the Mine and Ike Walker were a neck apart at the wire two starts back while filling out the Exacta. The "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - Clm $6.25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Blaze'n Prospector (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 2 Chromium (ML 7-2)
# 3 Private Prospect (ML 5-1)
# 6 I'll Wrap It Up (ML 6-1)
# 10 Four Gaels (ML 12-1)
C's
# 4 Giant Mark (ML 15-1)
Blaze'n Prospector ships in from the east, getting some significant class relief while being priced to sell. Chromium has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two starts, both against more expensive stock.
Private Prospect and Four Gaels filled out the Exacta at this class level last time out. I'll Wrap It Up and Giant Mark are a pair that could wake up with the class drop.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 6 Warm It Up (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Red Shelby (ML 3-1)
# 5 Fluorescent (ML 10-1)
# 7 Sheza Factor (ML 4-1)
# 8 Beauty Divine (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Lucy Buckner (ML 12-1)
# 10 Shanghai Tootsie (ML 12-1)
Note that while this is a Maiden Claiming, all the experienced runners in this field, excepting # 9 My Alchemist (ML 15-1) are exciting races for non-Claiming Maidens. So there's no point in getting too exciting about any one horse dropping in for a tag, as they're nearly all doing it.
Warm It Up ran well the last time that she charged down the hill, and would probably win today with a repeat of that effort. Red Shelby looks to be quickest here. Florescent is making her second career start for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with such.
Sheza Factor could get a nice trip pressing the early leader. Beauty Divine could improve with the return to the hill. Lucy Buckner and Shanghai Tootsie are a pair of debut runners that are well bred for the grass.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 2 with 11 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,3,5 with 2,3,6,10,11 with 2,5,6,7,8 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 2 with 11 with 6 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4,7,8 with 11 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2 with 4 with 6 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2 with 11 with 3,10 $1.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:08 EDT / 2:08 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 21, 2018
4/21/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The American - # 2 What a View (Final Odds 6.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Queen Laila (1.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 5 Desert General (1.90*) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 4 Peach Cove (NZ) (9.50 ) - "B" Selection
So it turned out that Queen Laila was indeed ready to run Saturday in her four year old debut, crossing under the wire nearly a half dozen lengths in front of her nearest rival, # 2 Fair Regis (6.90). But while Queen Laila appears to be heading towards a fine 2018 campaign, it will be for different connections; as Queen Laila gets snatched up for the $40k price tag, and joins the barn of Trainer David Jacobson. As for my play, multiple backup "C" Selection winners is the telltale sign that Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 5 / 5 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $397.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - # 5 Queen Laila (1.10*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 5 Desert General (1.90*) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - # 4 Peach Cove (NZ) (9.50 ) - "B" Selection
So it turned out that Queen Laila was indeed ready to run Saturday in her four year old debut, crossing under the wire nearly a half dozen lengths in front of her nearest rival, # 2 Fair Regis (6.90). But while Queen Laila appears to be heading towards a fine 2018 campaign, it will be for different connections; as Queen Laila gets snatched up for the $40k price tag, and joins the barn of Trainer David Jacobson. As for my play, multiple backup "C" Selection winners is the telltale sign that Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 5 / 5 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $397.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/21/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Saturday's card at Santa Anita features a pair of Graded Stakes; one of which, the Grade 3 American, kicks off the final four sequence. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 8 - The American (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Blackjackcat (Morning Line 5-2)
# 9 Kenjisstorm (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Ritzy A. P. (ML 12-1)
C's
# 2 What a View (ML 6-1)
# 3 Colonist (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Fabozzi (ML 10-1) and # 7 Free Rose (ML 6-1)
Note that while this contest is open to three year olds and upward, no three year olds are entered in this field. All runners are at least four years old. The same holds true for Race 9 below.
Blackjackcat, Show finisher in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile, peaked too soon last time out in the Grade 3 Thunder Road. I think it's fair to say that Blackjackcat needed that race and should improve off the effort.
Kenjisstorm looked strong in victory over this turf course last time out, going first time for the barn of Trainer Phil D'Amato. Ritzy A. P. may need a race off the bench; but Ritzy A. P. has always run well over this turf course.
What a View could be dangerous if he can shake free early. Colonist could improve with the cutback in distance.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Powder (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 2 Fair Regis (ML 6-1)
# 5 Queen Laila (ML 5-2)
C's
RACE 8 - The American (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Blackjackcat (Morning Line 5-2)
# 9 Kenjisstorm (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Ritzy A. P. (ML 12-1)
C's
# 2 What a View (ML 6-1)
# 3 Colonist (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Fabozzi (ML 10-1) and # 7 Free Rose (ML 6-1)
Note that while this contest is open to three year olds and upward, no three year olds are entered in this field. All runners are at least four years old. The same holds true for Race 9 below.
Blackjackcat, Show finisher in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile, peaked too soon last time out in the Grade 3 Thunder Road. I think it's fair to say that Blackjackcat needed that race and should improve off the effort.
Kenjisstorm looked strong in victory over this turf course last time out, going first time for the barn of Trainer Phil D'Amato. Ritzy A. P. may need a race off the bench; but Ritzy A. P. has always run well over this turf course.
What a View could be dangerous if he can shake free early. Colonist could improve with the cutback in distance.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Powder (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 2 Fair Regis (ML 6-1)
# 5 Queen Laila (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Glorious Hour (ML 8-1)
# 3 Princess Ashlyn (ML 6-1)
# 4 Princess Kendra (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 7 Wild At Midnight (ML 8-5)
Powder has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of her last two starts. Fair Regis took the Show behind Powder last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.
Queen Laila makes her four year old debut here; and her work over this track on the 15th suggests that she's ready to roll. An interesting note with Queen Laila is that my copy of the Past Performances gives Blinkers On as an equipment change; but Queen Laila has worn blinkers in each of her last three contests.
The backup "C" Selections are everyone else. While I don't see this as a wide-open contest worthy of going "ALL" on the big ticket, I do think that this race became a lot more competitive with the scratch of the Bob Baffert runner, Wild At Midnight. In addition, the horse that should now be the standout in this field, Queen Laila, has some question marks around her. For example, if Queen Laila is fully recovered from whatever sent her to the sidelines for over half a year, why is she being entered here, where she has to run for a tag of $40k? Perhaps the connections were worried that the second level Optional Claimer dirt sprint scheduled for Thursday the 26th wouldn't fill; perhaps they could find no other place for her to run; but it just strikes me as a poor gamble to chance losing Queen Laila for $40k if you think that she can return to her three year old form.
RACE 10 - [S] ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Infuriated Gary (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Rolls Royce Deal (ML 15-1)
# 3 Duluth (ML 4-1)
C's
# 4 Plain Wrap (ML 5-1)
# 5 Desert General (ML 6-1)
Infuriated Gary returns to state-bred company after defeating open company in each of his last two starts. Rolls Royce Deal could move up with a cleaner trip. Duluth won his debut by open lengths last time out.
Plain Wrap fits well here on class, but Plain Wrap has also had plenty of chances at this class level. Desert General is anther that often finds a way to lose races that he should win; but perhaps talent will win out today.
RACE 11 - (F) Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Resky Business (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 4 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 5-1)
# 8 Salsita (ML 4-1)
# 9 Lookinforadanger (ML 6-1)
C's
# 5 Revenue Virginius (ML 6-1)
# 10 Backintheacademy (ML 12-1)
# 10 Backintheacademy (ML 12-1)
Resky Business fits well at this class level on both dirt and turf, and could be loose on the lead early in this field. Peach Cove (NZ) could improve with the return to the flats. Salsita could improve with the return to turf.
Lookinforadanger is adding blinkers, so she should be close up to Resky Business early. Revenue Virginius has won on the turf before, though dirt may be her preferred surface.
Speaking of preferred, note that in the conditions "Non-Starters for a claiming price of $12,500 or less in their last 2 starts preferred." Well, I guess not enough preferred runners entered, as Backintheacademy is in here despite having run for a tag of less than $10k in each of her last two starts. Still, despite her class disadvantage, I give Backintheacademy an outside shot, because she just might be the one running best late.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,9 with 6 with 6 with 3 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,9 with 2,5,6 with 2,3,6 with 3,4,8,9 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 6 with 6 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 1,3,4 with 6 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 6 with 4,5 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 6 with 6 with 5,10 $2.00
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:52 EDT / 3:52 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, April 15, 2018
4/15/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 3 Vasilika (Final Odds 1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Lucky Lula (10.80) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 11 Swiss Minister (2.80) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Hot American (20.10) - "C" Selection
Hot American's sire was 2010 Melbourne Cup winner Americain, a large part of the reason why I remarked in the preview that he was well bred for the grass. In addition, Hot American was out of an Unbridled's Song mare, suggesting that he should run well at a distance.
But while I figured Hot American's chances at victory Sunday warranted making him part of the play, I did not think his chances sufficient to grant him a spot on the big ticket; partly because runners for Hot American's trainer, Neil Drysdale, tend not to win at first asking; and partly because there were several experienced entrants in Sunday's field who had finished in the Trifecta at this level or higher in either or both of their two most recent contests. But Hot American proved to be up to the challenge, crossing under the wire more than two lengths in front, and thus making Sunday a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the ANNOUNCED $0.50 Will Pays for the runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 1 Street to Indy (6.40) - $190.40 Finish: 5th
# 7 Mo Over (3.10) - $151.85 Finish: 10th
# 8 Amazon Cry (2.20*) - $152.65 Finish: 2nd
# 9 Odyssey Explorer (6.40) - $172.05 Finish: 3rd
I also had # 2 Starting Bloc, a late scratch, on the big ticket. Since I received the Post Time Favorite, Amazon Cry, in Starting Bloc's place, the above payout would have been doubled had Amazon Cry crossed under the wire first.
Starting Bloc's late scratch is also why I emphasized above "announced" Will Pays. Santa Anita calculated the above amounts with the presumption that each runner would be the Post Time Favorite. As Starting Bloc, with a Morning Line of 3-1, had been well used by many in The Late Pick Four, the presumption that each runner would be the Post Time Favorite significantly deflated the Will Pays for all except, of course, the actual Post Time Favorite, # 8 Amazon Cry. For example, the announced Will Pay for Hot American was $219.50.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 7 / 11 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $2,967.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 7 Lucky Lula (10.80) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 11 Swiss Minister (2.80) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Hot American (20.10) - "C" Selection
Hot American's sire was 2010 Melbourne Cup winner Americain, a large part of the reason why I remarked in the preview that he was well bred for the grass. In addition, Hot American was out of an Unbridled's Song mare, suggesting that he should run well at a distance.
But while I figured Hot American's chances at victory Sunday warranted making him part of the play, I did not think his chances sufficient to grant him a spot on the big ticket; partly because runners for Hot American's trainer, Neil Drysdale, tend not to win at first asking; and partly because there were several experienced entrants in Sunday's field who had finished in the Trifecta at this level or higher in either or both of their two most recent contests. But Hot American proved to be up to the challenge, crossing under the wire more than two lengths in front, and thus making Sunday a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the ANNOUNCED $0.50 Will Pays for the runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 1 Street to Indy (6.40) - $190.40 Finish: 5th
# 7 Mo Over (3.10) - $151.85 Finish: 10th
# 8 Amazon Cry (2.20*) - $152.65 Finish: 2nd
# 9 Odyssey Explorer (6.40) - $172.05 Finish: 3rd
I also had # 2 Starting Bloc, a late scratch, on the big ticket. Since I received the Post Time Favorite, Amazon Cry, in Starting Bloc's place, the above payout would have been doubled had Amazon Cry crossed under the wire first.
Starting Bloc's late scratch is also why I emphasized above "announced" Will Pays. Santa Anita calculated the above amounts with the presumption that each runner would be the Post Time Favorite. As Starting Bloc, with a Morning Line of 3-1, had been well used by many in The Late Pick Four, the presumption that each runner would be the Post Time Favorite significantly deflated the Will Pays for all except, of course, the actual Post Time Favorite, # 8 Amazon Cry. For example, the announced Will Pay for Hot American was $219.50.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 7 / 11 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $2,967.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/15/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
As was the case Saturday, the final four contests on Sunday's card at Santa Anita feature two routes on the flat turf and two sprints over the main track. And as was also the case Saturday, that's all I've got by way of introduction. So let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Vasilika (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 4 Achira (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 War Moccasin (ML 6-1)
# 6 Lynne's Legacy (ML 6-1)
# 8 Battleground State (ML 4-1)
Vasilika and Achira filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last month, crossing under the wire just a nose apart, with Lynne's Legacy about a length behind. War Moccasin could move up with the added distance. Battleground State, by Unusual Heat out of a Moscow Ballet broodmare, may not be ready to compete at this class level yet; but she certainly looks to have a tremendous upside, so perhaps Battleground State will take a big leap forward today.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Champagne Honey (ML 5-2)
B's
# 5 Get Yourself Home (ML 3-1)
# 6 So Euro (ML 3-1)
# 7 Lucky Lula (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Awesome Allied (ML 30-1)
# 2 Makenna's Song (ML 4-1)
# 4 Marjorie E (ML 12-1)
# 8 Cali Chatter (ML 15-1)
Very simple: the "A" and "B" Selections are the experienced runners, while the "C" Selections are the first time starters. Each of the four experienced entrants have finished in the Exacta at this class level or higher, though none has shown themselves to be a true standout. Meanwhile, several of the debut contestants have been working well for this, but none have the breeding or connections to mark them as one that will be a virtual certainty to run at first asking. Perhaps I should just take all thought out of this leg and punch the "ALL" button; but I think the way I have it is the proper way to play it.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 16k/N1X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Rocket Fuel (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 1 Hardcore Troubador (ML 5-1)
# 9 Drizzy (ML 8-1)
# 11 Swiss Minister (ML 7-2)
C's
# 5 Easter Morn (ML 4-1)
# 6 Southern Warlord (ML 8-1)
Rocket Fuel could improve with the cutback in distance off the freshening. Hardcore Troubador looks to be speed on the rail. Drizzy has taken the Show against classier competition in each of his last two starts.
Swiss Minister took the Place at this class level last time out. Easter Morn and Southern Warlord are two that could move up as they both try winners for the second time.
RACE 9 - Md $50k - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Starting Bloc (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Street to Indy (ML 10-1)
# 7 Mo Over (ML 4-1)
# 8 Amazon Cry (ML 7-2)
# 9 Odyssey Explorer (ML 12-1)
C's
# 6 Hot American (ML 15-1)
# 10 Roaring Fork (ML 6-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, #12 It's a New Year (ML 6-1) and # 3 Original Intent (ML 12-1)
Starting Bloc drops in for a tag for the first time; not something that you like to see off a layoff; but if Starting Bloc shows any improvement off that prior effort, he could get his picture taken today. Street to Indy could improve going third off the layoff. Mo Over has finished in the Trifecta in each of his career starts.
Amazon Cry should be forwardly placed early, and may be able to hold on late. Odyssey Explorer took the Show at this class level two starts back.
Hot American is a debut starter well bred for the grass. Roaring Fork took the Place against more expensive stock two starts back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 3 with 10 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,5,6,7 with 1,9,10,11 with 1,2,7,8,9 $80.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,6,8 with 3 with 10 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,4,8 with 10 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 5,6 with 2 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 10 with 6,10 $1.00
Total: $86.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:13 EDT / 2:13 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Vasilika (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 4 Achira (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 War Moccasin (ML 6-1)
# 6 Lynne's Legacy (ML 6-1)
# 8 Battleground State (ML 4-1)
Vasilika and Achira filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last month, crossing under the wire just a nose apart, with Lynne's Legacy about a length behind. War Moccasin could move up with the added distance. Battleground State, by Unusual Heat out of a Moscow Ballet broodmare, may not be ready to compete at this class level yet; but she certainly looks to have a tremendous upside, so perhaps Battleground State will take a big leap forward today.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Champagne Honey (ML 5-2)
B's
# 5 Get Yourself Home (ML 3-1)
# 6 So Euro (ML 3-1)
# 7 Lucky Lula (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Awesome Allied (ML 30-1)
# 2 Makenna's Song (ML 4-1)
# 4 Marjorie E (ML 12-1)
# 8 Cali Chatter (ML 15-1)
Very simple: the "A" and "B" Selections are the experienced runners, while the "C" Selections are the first time starters. Each of the four experienced entrants have finished in the Exacta at this class level or higher, though none has shown themselves to be a true standout. Meanwhile, several of the debut contestants have been working well for this, but none have the breeding or connections to mark them as one that will be a virtual certainty to run at first asking. Perhaps I should just take all thought out of this leg and punch the "ALL" button; but I think the way I have it is the proper way to play it.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 16k/N1X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Rocket Fuel (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 1 Hardcore Troubador (ML 5-1)
# 9 Drizzy (ML 8-1)
# 11 Swiss Minister (ML 7-2)
C's
# 5 Easter Morn (ML 4-1)
# 6 Southern Warlord (ML 8-1)
Rocket Fuel could improve with the cutback in distance off the freshening. Hardcore Troubador looks to be speed on the rail. Drizzy has taken the Show against classier competition in each of his last two starts.
Swiss Minister took the Place at this class level last time out. Easter Morn and Southern Warlord are two that could move up as they both try winners for the second time.
RACE 9 - Md $50k - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Starting Bloc (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Street to Indy (ML 10-1)
# 7 Mo Over (ML 4-1)
# 8 Amazon Cry (ML 7-2)
# 9 Odyssey Explorer (ML 12-1)
C's
# 6 Hot American (ML 15-1)
# 10 Roaring Fork (ML 6-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, #12 It's a New Year (ML 6-1) and # 3 Original Intent (ML 12-1)
Starting Bloc drops in for a tag for the first time; not something that you like to see off a layoff; but if Starting Bloc shows any improvement off that prior effort, he could get his picture taken today. Street to Indy could improve going third off the layoff. Mo Over has finished in the Trifecta in each of his career starts.
Amazon Cry should be forwardly placed early, and may be able to hold on late. Odyssey Explorer took the Show at this class level two starts back.
Hot American is a debut starter well bred for the grass. Roaring Fork took the Place against more expensive stock two starts back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 3 with 10 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,5,6,7 with 1,9,10,11 with 1,2,7,8,9 $80.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,6,8 with 3 with 10 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,4,8 with 10 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 5,6 with 2 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3 with 10 with 6,10 $1.00
Total: $86.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:13 EDT / 2:13 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 14, 2018
4/14/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - # 5 Tule Fog (Final Odds 3.50) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Mesa Sky (3.70) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 1 Aquaphobia (2.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 6 Insubordination (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Hindsight being 20-20, Aquaphobia and Insubordination were easy enough winners while running true to form that either or both could have been big ticket singles; but doesn't it always feel that way when a Post Time Favorite / "A" Selection crosses under the wire first? On the other hand, Mesa Sky was one that I had on the bubble between a "B" and a "C" due to the class rise off a close win; needless to say, I'm glad that I found room for him on the big ticket.
For the record, here's the $0.50 Will Pay for the other runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 8 Jerry's Thunder (2.20) - $178.00 Finish: 5th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 8 / 1 / 6 which paid $174.20 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $120.20 on my initial $54.00 investment, or approximate odds of 2.23-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - # 8 Mesa Sky (3.70) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 1 Aquaphobia (2.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 6 Insubordination (1.60*) - "A" Selection
Hindsight being 20-20, Aquaphobia and Insubordination were easy enough winners while running true to form that either or both could have been big ticket singles; but doesn't it always feel that way when a Post Time Favorite / "A" Selection crosses under the wire first? On the other hand, Mesa Sky was one that I had on the bubble between a "B" and a "C" due to the class rise off a close win; needless to say, I'm glad that I found room for him on the big ticket.
For the record, here's the $0.50 Will Pay for the other runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 8 Jerry's Thunder (2.20) - $178.00 Finish: 5th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 8 / 1 / 6 which paid $174.20 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $120.20 on my initial $54.00 investment, or approximate odds of 2.23-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/14/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
The final four contests on Saturday's card at Santa Anita feature two routes on the flat turf and two sprints over the main track. And that's all I've got by way of introduction. So let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 16k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Kings River King (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Tule Fog (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lymebyrd (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 California Journey (ML 6-1)
# 9 Raven Creek (ML 3-1)
Scratch # 4 Hardboot (ML 20-1) as well as all the Also Eligibles: # 10 Waya Ed (ML 10-1); # 11 Six Point Rack (ML 4-1); # 12 Alsatian (ML 8-1); # 13 Bold Papa (ML 6-1); and # 14 Going for the Win (ML 10-1).
Kings River King could move up with a return to the flats. Tule Fog took the Place against classier competition two starts back. Lymebyrd seems better suited to the main track; but Lymebyrd fits well here on class.
California Journey could move up with the return to state bred company. Raven Creek tries the flat turf course for the first time. If he takes to it, then Raven Creek can win today.
RACE 9 - Clm $12.5k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Well Measured (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 6 Classico (ML 4-1)
# 8 Mesa Sky (ML 6-1)
# 9 Junior Gilliam (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Giant Mark (ML 20-1)
# 2 Louden's Gray (ML 4-1)
# 4 Native Treasure (ML 12-1)
Well Measured has finished in the Trifecta at this class level or higher in each of his last two races; though the frequency with which Well Measured tends to fail as the Post Time Favorite is somewhat disconcerting. Classico goes first off the claim for Trainer Mark Glatt, who tends to do well with such.
Mesa Sky was victorious over this main track just six days ago, as Trainer David Jacobson looks to strike while the iron is hot. Junior Gilliam fits well with the contenders here, though there may not be enough pace for Junior Gilliam to chase.
Native Treasure and Giant Mark filled out the Exacta against state bred company two starts back. Louden's Gray has won in the past off just works.
RACE 10 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Aquaphobia (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 3 Well Developed (ML 4-1)
# 6 Air Vice Marshal (ML 5-2)
# 7 Play Hard to Get (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Cafe Flavor (ML 15-1)
# 5 River Echo (GB) (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 9 Horse Greedy (ML 12-1). Bring in # 10 Touched by Autism (ML 30-1) off the Also Eligible List to take his spot.
Aquaphobia could move up with the cutback in distance. Well Developed has yet to run a bad race. Air Vice Marshal has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts, albeit over the main track.
Play Hard to Get and Cafe Flavor are two that could improve with the cutback in distance. River Echo (GB) could improve with the return to turf.
RACE 11 - [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Insubordination (ML 5-2)
B's
# 8 Jerry's Thunder (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Rustic Canyon (ML 6-1)
# 3 Seattle Encounter (ML 4-1)
# 7 Red Obsession (ML 8-1)
Insubordination looks best here, as well as quickest; and his career oh-for-fourteen record looks better if you blot out the eight turf starts. Jerry's Thunder has finished in the Trifecta in each of his career starts over a Fast dirt track, all at this class level.
Rustic Canyon took the Place, albeit a well-beaten Place, at this class level two starts back. Seattle Encounter is out of a Seattle Slew broodmare that has dropped three winners from three starters. Red Obsession showed some early foot in his debut last time out before he ran out of gas.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 3 with 1 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6,7 with 3,6,8,9 with 1,3,6,7 with 6,8 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,9 with 3 with 1 with 6 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,4 with 1 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3 with 4,5 with 6 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3 with 1 with 2,3,7 $1.50
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:52 EDT / 3:52 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - [S] OC 16k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Kings River King (Morning Line 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Tule Fog (ML 4-1)
# 7 Lymebyrd (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 California Journey (ML 6-1)
# 9 Raven Creek (ML 3-1)
Scratch # 4 Hardboot (ML 20-1) as well as all the Also Eligibles: # 10 Waya Ed (ML 10-1); # 11 Six Point Rack (ML 4-1); # 12 Alsatian (ML 8-1); # 13 Bold Papa (ML 6-1); and # 14 Going for the Win (ML 10-1).
Kings River King could move up with a return to the flats. Tule Fog took the Place against classier competition two starts back. Lymebyrd seems better suited to the main track; but Lymebyrd fits well here on class.
California Journey could move up with the return to state bred company. Raven Creek tries the flat turf course for the first time. If he takes to it, then Raven Creek can win today.
RACE 9 - Clm $12.5k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Well Measured (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 6 Classico (ML 4-1)
# 8 Mesa Sky (ML 6-1)
# 9 Junior Gilliam (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Giant Mark (ML 20-1)
# 2 Louden's Gray (ML 4-1)
# 4 Native Treasure (ML 12-1)
Well Measured has finished in the Trifecta at this class level or higher in each of his last two races; though the frequency with which Well Measured tends to fail as the Post Time Favorite is somewhat disconcerting. Classico goes first off the claim for Trainer Mark Glatt, who tends to do well with such.
Mesa Sky was victorious over this main track just six days ago, as Trainer David Jacobson looks to strike while the iron is hot. Junior Gilliam fits well with the contenders here, though there may not be enough pace for Junior Gilliam to chase.
Native Treasure and Giant Mark filled out the Exacta against state bred company two starts back. Louden's Gray has won in the past off just works.
RACE 10 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Aquaphobia (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 3 Well Developed (ML 4-1)
# 6 Air Vice Marshal (ML 5-2)
# 7 Play Hard to Get (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Cafe Flavor (ML 15-1)
# 5 River Echo (GB) (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 9 Horse Greedy (ML 12-1). Bring in # 10 Touched by Autism (ML 30-1) off the Also Eligible List to take his spot.
Aquaphobia could move up with the cutback in distance. Well Developed has yet to run a bad race. Air Vice Marshal has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts, albeit over the main track.
Play Hard to Get and Cafe Flavor are two that could improve with the cutback in distance. River Echo (GB) could improve with the return to turf.
RACE 11 - [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Insubordination (ML 5-2)
B's
# 8 Jerry's Thunder (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Rustic Canyon (ML 6-1)
# 3 Seattle Encounter (ML 4-1)
# 7 Red Obsession (ML 8-1)
Insubordination looks best here, as well as quickest; and his career oh-for-fourteen record looks better if you blot out the eight turf starts. Jerry's Thunder has finished in the Trifecta in each of his career starts over a Fast dirt track, all at this class level.
Rustic Canyon took the Place, albeit a well-beaten Place, at this class level two starts back. Seattle Encounter is out of a Seattle Slew broodmare that has dropped three winners from three starters. Red Obsession showed some early foot in his debut last time out before he ran out of gas.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 3 with 1 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6,7 with 3,6,8,9 with 1,3,6,7 with 6,8 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,9 with 3 with 1 with 6 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,4 with 1 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3 with 4,5 with 6 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3 with 1 with 2,3,7 $1.50
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:52 EDT / 3:52 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, April 8, 2018
4/8/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 6 Ax Man (Final Odds 0.80*) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 My Man Chuckles (4.10) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 8 Mesa Sky (3.20) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Giant Mongolian (22.70) - "C" Selection
When the sequence kicks off with your big ticket single (# 5 Shivermetimbers (5.60)) crossing under the wire nearly ten lengths behind the actual winner, you can be pretty sure that it's not going to be a profitable day. While My Man Chuckles was the only winner on which I completely whiffed, it's obvious from the results that I did not have a handle on Sunday's sequence.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 7 / 8 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $779.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 7 My Man Chuckles (4.10) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 8 Mesa Sky (3.20) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Giant Mongolian (22.70) - "C" Selection
When the sequence kicks off with your big ticket single (# 5 Shivermetimbers (5.60)) crossing under the wire nearly ten lengths behind the actual winner, you can be pretty sure that it's not going to be a profitable day. While My Man Chuckles was the only winner on which I completely whiffed, it's obvious from the results that I did not have a handle on Sunday's sequence.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 7 / 8 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $779.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/8/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Finishing up the weekend where it began, with a Sunday card that has a final four sequence featuring two charges down the Santa Anita hill. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - OC 75k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Shivermetimbers (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
None
C's
RACE 6 - OC 75k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Shivermetimbers (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
None
C's
# 1 Dia de Pago (ML 4-1)
# 3 Aquila (ML 4-1)
# 6 Ax Man (ML 5-2)
# 6 Ax Man (ML 5-2)
# 7 Call West (ML 4-1)
# 8 Calexman (ML 12-1)
# 8 Calexman (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 2 Jungle Warfare (ML 12-1) and # 4 Blame the Rider (ML 20-1)
Shivermetimbers took the Place behind Justify at this class level last time out. The "C" Selections are everyone else. My opinion is that Shivermetimbers has a clear edge over the rest of this field. Not a large edge; but an edge significant enough to justify his status as the big ticket's single. Should my opinion be proven wrong and Shivermetimbers fails to get his picture taken Sunday, then in my opinion this is anyone's race; as the other three year olds in this field all look relatively equal, with the best among them to be determined by which one has matured the most since their last outing.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Chief Hosa (ML 5-1)
# 10 Skelton Pass (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Tina's Exchange (ML 5-1)
# 6 Forest Chatter (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Rigoletto (Swi) (ML 12-1)
# 9 Oiseau de Guerre (ML 5-2)
# 9 Oiseau de Guerre (ML 5-2)
Chief Hose and Skelton Pass filled out the bottom two rungs of the Superfecta at this class level last time out. Tina's Exchange could move up with the return to turf. Forest Chatter may need one off the extended vacation; but if Forest Chatter is ready to roll, then he should outclass the rest of this field.
Rigoletto (Swi) may return to his overseas form off the freshening. Oiseau de Guerre closed well to graduate charging down the hill last time out.
RACE 8 - Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Lambo Luxx (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Heir of Storm (ML 6-1)
# 8 Mesa Sky (ML 4-1)
# 9 Atomic Action (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Lambo Luxx is a consistent winner, and could improve going third off the layoff. Heir of Storm took the Place against more expensive stock last time out. Mesa Sky disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out, but could improve going second off the claim for Trainer David Jacobson. Atomic Action has been working well for this, his first contest since last Independence Day.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Little Bit Lovely (ML 7-2)
# 13 Passionate Emotion (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 5 Ok Doll (ML 6-1)
# 10 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 4-1)
# 12 Girl Downstairs (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Giant Mongolian (ML 20-1)
# 9 Madame Mousse (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 4 Nine Point Nine (ML 8-1) and # 8 Lori's Attitude (ML 5-1). Bring in # 12 Girl Downstairs (ML 5-1) and # 13 Passionate Emotion (ML 5-1) off the Also Eligible list to take their place.
Little Bit Lovely defeated more expensive stock charging down the Santa Anita hill two starts back. Passionate Emotion, shipping in from upstate, is classy enough to defeat these if she can handle the surface switch.
Ok Doll could move up with the class drop. Peach Cove (NZ) could move up off the freshening. Girl Downstairs, a re-claim by Trainer Peter Eurton after just one race away from his barn, could move up with the class drop.
Giant Mongolian is quick enough that she may do well charging down the hill. Madame Mousse should improve returning to the turf.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 2,10 with 5 with 2,13 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,2,6,10 with 2,5,8,9 with 2,5,10,12,13 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,7,8 with 2,10 with 5 with 2,13 $10.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 3,9 with 5 with 2,13 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,10 with 5 with 6,9 $2.00
Total: $58.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:08 EDT / 2:08 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, April 7, 2018
4/7/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 9 - The Santa Anita Derby - # 6 Justify (Final Odds 0.90*) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Royal Heroine - # 3 Beau Recall (Ire) (4.40) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Santa Anita Oaks - # 3 Midnight Bisou (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - # 2 Pantsonfire (Ire) (2.20*) - "A" Selection
Justify justifies the hype; and had I predicted that outcome and made Justify an "A" Selection, I would have cashed Saturday. But I didn't; so Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 3 / 3 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $38.90 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 10 - The Royal Heroine - # 3 Beau Recall (Ire) (4.40) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Santa Anita Oaks - # 3 Midnight Bisou (0.60*) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - # 2 Pantsonfire (Ire) (2.20*) - "A" Selection
Justify justifies the hype; and had I predicted that outcome and made Justify an "A" Selection, I would have cashed Saturday. But I didn't; so Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 3 / 3 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $38.90 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/7/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Santa Anita Derby Day in Arcadia, California, with a half dozen stakes blended into a well drawn card. Three of the Graded Stakes events, including the day's featured race, will be examined below; as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 9 - The Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Bolt d'Oro (ML 6-5)
B's
# 1 Instilled Regard (ML 5-1)
# 6 Justify (ML 4-5)
C's
None
Bolt d'Oro is clearly the most accomplished runner in this field. Instilled Regard may improve with a return to West Coast time. This is the race where Justify either puts up or shuts up. I think Justify will run well here; but if I were playing the Win Pool, I'd be extremely hesitant to back him at less than double his Morning Line.
RACE 10 - (F) The Royal Heroine (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Enola Gray (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Sophie P (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 5 Thundering Sky (ML 5-1)
# 9 Sassy Little Lila (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Madame Stripes (Arg) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Mongolian Shopper (ML 15-1)
Enola Gray won the Grade 3 Wilshire last time out; last time out being last July. If Enola Gray is ready to roll after the nine month vacation then she looks to be best here.
Sophie P was an upset winner in each of her last two starts; perhaps she can keep the string going. Thundering Sky could move forward off the freshening. Sassy Little Lila could improve with the cutback in distance.
Beau Recall (Ire) could improve with the return to the eight furlong distance. Madame Stripes (Arg) may improve off the brief break. Mongolian Shopper could improve with the stretch out.
RACE 11 - (F) The Santa Anita Oaks (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Midnight Bisou (ML 6-5)
B's
# 7 Spectator (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Fool's Paradise (ML 30-1)
# 5 Finess Bere (Fr) (ML 15-1)
# 6 Exuberance (ML 12-1)
Midnight Bisou misses by just two noses of being a perfect four-for-four for her career. Spectator looked sharp in her three year old debut last time out, and could improve off that effort.
Fool's Paradise looked well suited to the distance while graduating last time out. Finess Bere (Fr) may discover that she prefers dirt to turf. Exuberance has shown steady improvement in each of her route races.
RACE 12 - (F) OC 62.5k/N2X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Laseen (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 7 The Tulip (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 10 Queen Blossom (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Dalsaros (ML 8-1)
# 9 Arch of Troy (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 3 Starlite Style (ML 30-1) and # 8 Hachi (Chi) (ML 8-1)
Pantsonfire took the Show at this class level last time out. Laseen (Ire) fits well here on class, and can certainly win today; that is, provided that she feels like running. The Tulip (Ire) ran well enough last time out to suggest that she can handle the class rise.
Queen Blossom (Ire) may improve with the cutback in distance. Dalsaros has breeding that suggests that she'll do well on the grass; certainly better than she did in her debut. Arch of Troy is quick enough that she could get a nice pace pressing trip with the outside draw.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 6 with 3 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6 with 2,5,6,9 with 3,7 with 1,2,7,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3,7,8 with 3 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 6 with 4,5,6 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 6 with 3 with 6,9 $1.00
Total: $53.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 9 - The Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Bolt d'Oro (ML 6-5)
B's
# 1 Instilled Regard (ML 5-1)
# 6 Justify (ML 4-5)
C's
None
Bolt d'Oro is clearly the most accomplished runner in this field. Instilled Regard may improve with a return to West Coast time. This is the race where Justify either puts up or shuts up. I think Justify will run well here; but if I were playing the Win Pool, I'd be extremely hesitant to back him at less than double his Morning Line.
RACE 10 - (F) The Royal Heroine (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Enola Gray (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Sophie P (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 5 Thundering Sky (ML 5-1)
# 9 Sassy Little Lila (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Madame Stripes (Arg) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Mongolian Shopper (ML 15-1)
Enola Gray won the Grade 3 Wilshire last time out; last time out being last July. If Enola Gray is ready to roll after the nine month vacation then she looks to be best here.
Sophie P was an upset winner in each of her last two starts; perhaps she can keep the string going. Thundering Sky could move forward off the freshening. Sassy Little Lila could improve with the cutback in distance.
Beau Recall (Ire) could improve with the return to the eight furlong distance. Madame Stripes (Arg) may improve off the brief break. Mongolian Shopper could improve with the stretch out.
RACE 11 - (F) The Santa Anita Oaks (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Midnight Bisou (ML 6-5)
B's
# 7 Spectator (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Fool's Paradise (ML 30-1)
# 5 Finess Bere (Fr) (ML 15-1)
# 6 Exuberance (ML 12-1)
Midnight Bisou misses by just two noses of being a perfect four-for-four for her career. Spectator looked sharp in her three year old debut last time out, and could improve off that effort.
Fool's Paradise looked well suited to the distance while graduating last time out. Finess Bere (Fr) may discover that she prefers dirt to turf. Exuberance has shown steady improvement in each of her route races.
RACE 12 - (F) OC 62.5k/N2X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Laseen (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 7 The Tulip (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 10 Queen Blossom (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Dalsaros (ML 8-1)
# 9 Arch of Troy (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 3 Starlite Style (ML 30-1) and # 8 Hachi (Chi) (ML 8-1)
Pantsonfire took the Show at this class level last time out. Laseen (Ire) fits well here on class, and can certainly win today; that is, provided that she feels like running. The Tulip (Ire) ran well enough last time out to suggest that she can handle the class rise.
Queen Blossom (Ire) may improve with the cutback in distance. Dalsaros has breeding that suggests that she'll do well on the grass; certainly better than she did in her debut. Arch of Troy is quick enough that she could get a nice pace pressing trip with the outside draw.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 6 with 3 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6 with 2,5,6,9 with 3,7 with 1,2,7,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3,7,8 with 3 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 6 with 4,5,6 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 6 with 3 with 6,9 $1.00
Total: $53.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, April 5, 2018
4/5/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 8 Diva La Mousse (Final Odds 1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 6 Foxy Fresh (1.40*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Speakers (7.80) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Leroy (1.80*) - "A" Selection
I won't call not covering Speakers in a the third leg an unpardonable error; but it certainly was a costly one. In a contest where a pace meltdown was pretty easy to predict, not finding room in my play for a runner who had found her way into the Exacta after breaking last multiple times in the past cannot be easily excused.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 6 / 1 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $119.45 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 6 Foxy Fresh (1.40*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Speakers (7.80) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Leroy (1.80*) - "A" Selection
I won't call not covering Speakers in a the third leg an unpardonable error; but it certainly was a costly one. In a contest where a pace meltdown was pretty easy to predict, not finding room in my play for a runner who had found her way into the Exacta after breaking last multiple times in the past cannot be easily excused.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 6 / 1 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $119.45 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/5/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Looking again over Sunday's results, it seemed like a good idea to get another on in over the track prior to Santa Anita Derby Day. Besides, if the free time is available, why not take advantage of it by having some fun playing the ponies? So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 5 - (F) Md $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Diva La Mousse (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 1 California Breeze (ML 4-1)
# 4 Himmah (Ire) (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Foxtail (ML 6-1)
# 7 Gia Lula (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 9 Sea Glass (ML 15-1). Bring in # 11 Eurasia (ML 20-1) off the Also Eligible list to take her place. Scratch the other Also Eligibles (# 12 Topaz Time (ML 20-1); # 13 On a Toot (ML 50-1); # 14 Trophy Bridle (ML 8-1)) as they do not draw in.
Diva La Mousse took the Place at this class level last time out, and appears to be best in this field. However, the concern with Diva La Mousse is that she appeared to be the best in other contests in the past, only to find a way to miss graduation. So, for that reason, Diva La Mousse will not be a single on the big ticket.
California Breeze took the Show against non-claiming Maidens in each of her last two starts. Himmah (Ire) didn't show much in her North American debut last time out; but that field was of a higher caliber than what Himmah will be facing today.
Foxtail, well back of Diva La Mousse at the wire last time out, may improve making her second career start. Gia Lula, making her three year old debut, ran the best race of her juvenile campaign in her only try on the turf.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Where's the D (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 6 Foxy Fresh (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Tiz Deliteful (ML 6-1)
# 5 Pomp and Party (ML 3-1)
# 8 Jill Madden (ML 5-1)
Where's the D wired the field at this class level last time out, with Jill Madden taking the Show behind her. Foxy Fresh is running for a lower price tag but against un-conditioned company; so this is more a lateral move than a class drop. But Foxy Fresh appears to be in top form, and therefore deserves consideration here.
Tiz Deliteful took the Show at this class level last time out. Pomp and Party has been the Post Time Favorite in six of her seven career starts; and has failed as the Post Time Favorite in four of those tries. So the talent is visibly there for Pomp and Party; but because of her aversion to the Winner's Circle, I'll be using Pomp and Party in a backup role only.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Streak of Luck (ML 10-1)
B's
# 2 My Aunt Tillie (ML 4-1)
# 4 Lostintranzlation (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Mizzen Glory (ML 12-1)
# 5 Dreamy Gal (ML 5-1)
# 7 Batiquitos (ML 8-1)
# 9 X S Gold (ML 5-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 11 Sugaratsundown (ML 50-1); # 12 Princess Dorian (ML 20-1); # 13 Silverspun Pickup (ML 15-1)
Streak of Luck took the Place against classier opposition last time out. My Aunt Tillie and X S Gold filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Lostintranzlation was first under the wire at this class level last time out (while still a Maiden), with Dreamy Gal just a nose behind.
Mizzen Glory won for fun over this turf course last time out, albeit for different connections. Batiquitos has yet to finish out of the Trifecta in her four race career.
RACE 8 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Leroy (ML 7-2)
# 7 Flynn (ML 5-1)
B's
# 3 Going Away Party (ML 20-1)
# 5 Nova (ML 12-1)
# 11 Advantageous (ML 20-1)
C's
# 6 Poco Diablo (ML 6-1)
# 9 Cayate (ML 5-1)
# 10 Powerful Thirst (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Seattle Encounter (ML 12-1)
Nova looks to be the quickest of the experienced runners in this field. All five of the first time starters are being used in this leg, with only Poco Diablo being relegated to backup "C" Selection status.
Cayate took the Place in front of a next out winner last time out; but I'm not convinced that that justifies moving Cayate back up in class. Powerful Thirst has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in the past, albeit for a different barn.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 3 with 6 with 4,7 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,8 with 3,6 with 2,4,6 with 3,4,5,7,11 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 3 with 6 with 4,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2,5,8 with 6 with 4,7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 3,5,7,9 with 4,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 6 with 6,9,10 $1.50
Total: $57.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 5:08 EDT / 2:08 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 5 - (F) Md $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Diva La Mousse (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 1 California Breeze (ML 4-1)
# 4 Himmah (Ire) (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Foxtail (ML 6-1)
# 7 Gia Lula (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 9 Sea Glass (ML 15-1). Bring in # 11 Eurasia (ML 20-1) off the Also Eligible list to take her place. Scratch the other Also Eligibles (# 12 Topaz Time (ML 20-1); # 13 On a Toot (ML 50-1); # 14 Trophy Bridle (ML 8-1)) as they do not draw in.
Diva La Mousse took the Place at this class level last time out, and appears to be best in this field. However, the concern with Diva La Mousse is that she appeared to be the best in other contests in the past, only to find a way to miss graduation. So, for that reason, Diva La Mousse will not be a single on the big ticket.
California Breeze took the Show against non-claiming Maidens in each of her last two starts. Himmah (Ire) didn't show much in her North American debut last time out; but that field was of a higher caliber than what Himmah will be facing today.
Foxtail, well back of Diva La Mousse at the wire last time out, may improve making her second career start. Gia Lula, making her three year old debut, ran the best race of her juvenile campaign in her only try on the turf.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Where's the D (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 6 Foxy Fresh (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Tiz Deliteful (ML 6-1)
# 5 Pomp and Party (ML 3-1)
# 8 Jill Madden (ML 5-1)
Where's the D wired the field at this class level last time out, with Jill Madden taking the Show behind her. Foxy Fresh is running for a lower price tag but against un-conditioned company; so this is more a lateral move than a class drop. But Foxy Fresh appears to be in top form, and therefore deserves consideration here.
Tiz Deliteful took the Show at this class level last time out. Pomp and Party has been the Post Time Favorite in six of her seven career starts; and has failed as the Post Time Favorite in four of those tries. So the talent is visibly there for Pomp and Party; but because of her aversion to the Winner's Circle, I'll be using Pomp and Party in a backup role only.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Streak of Luck (ML 10-1)
B's
# 2 My Aunt Tillie (ML 4-1)
# 4 Lostintranzlation (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Mizzen Glory (ML 12-1)
# 5 Dreamy Gal (ML 5-1)
# 7 Batiquitos (ML 8-1)
# 9 X S Gold (ML 5-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 11 Sugaratsundown (ML 50-1); # 12 Princess Dorian (ML 20-1); # 13 Silverspun Pickup (ML 15-1)
Streak of Luck took the Place against classier opposition last time out. My Aunt Tillie and X S Gold filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Lostintranzlation was first under the wire at this class level last time out (while still a Maiden), with Dreamy Gal just a nose behind.
Mizzen Glory won for fun over this turf course last time out, albeit for different connections. Batiquitos has yet to finish out of the Trifecta in her four race career.
RACE 8 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Leroy (ML 7-2)
# 7 Flynn (ML 5-1)
B's
# 3 Going Away Party (ML 20-1)
# 5 Nova (ML 12-1)
# 11 Advantageous (ML 20-1)
C's
# 6 Poco Diablo (ML 6-1)
# 9 Cayate (ML 5-1)
# 10 Powerful Thirst (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Seattle Encounter (ML 12-1)
Nova looks to be the quickest of the experienced runners in this field. All five of the first time starters are being used in this leg, with only Poco Diablo being relegated to backup "C" Selection status.
Cayate took the Place in front of a next out winner last time out; but I'm not convinced that that justifies moving Cayate back up in class. Powerful Thirst has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in the past, albeit for a different barn.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 3 with 6 with 4,7 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,8 with 3,6 with 2,4,6 with 3,4,5,7,11 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 3 with 6 with 4,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2,5,8 with 6 with 4,7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 3,5,7,9 with 4,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 6 with 6,9,10 $1.50
Total: $57.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 5:08 EDT / 2:08 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, April 1, 2018
4/1/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 1 Shy Carmelita (Final Odds 19.50) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Wandering Patrol (7.80) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 10 Ike Walker (3.50) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Point Guard (10.90) - "B" Selection
On a day when only one of my "A" Selections was able to find his way into the Superfecta (# 7 Donworth (3.10*), who took the Show in Race 8), there's not much I can add here in the form of commentary other than to say:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 2 / 10 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $5,284.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 2 Wandering Patrol (7.80) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 10 Ike Walker (3.50) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Point Guard (10.90) - "B" Selection
On a day when only one of my "A" Selections was able to find his way into the Superfecta (# 7 Donworth (3.10*), who took the Show in Race 8), there's not much I can add here in the form of commentary other than to say:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 2 / 10 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $5,284.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
4/1/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"Easter is very important to me, it's a second chance." - Reba McEntire
Happy Easter all! Hopefully each of you are having a wondrous Sunday, and by day's end, hopefully it will be even more wondrous. I decided to kick off the new month by moving my action back to Santa Anita, which is where I except it to reside for most weekends in April; excepting perhaps a stray day here or there. So with all that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - (F) OC 62.5k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 Spin Me a Kiss (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Angel Allie (ML 6-1)
# 4 Bowie (ML 4-1)
# 9 Zaffinah (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Shy Carmelita (ML 12-1)
Spin Me a Kiss, Angel Allie, Bowie, and Zaffinah (Ire) finished second through fifth (in that order) the last time they charged down the hill together at this class level. They all appear evenly matched; Spin Me a Kiss may be the most talented of the group. Maybe. Bowie seems to be the quickest and she may get away with soft fractions today. Zafffinah may move up as she goes third off the layoff.
Shy Carmelita is the new shooter here, charging down the hill for the first time as she seeks her first turf Win. I'm not exactly sure why you would want to take a runner who is three-for-ten lifetime sprinting on dirt and make her charge down the Santa Anita hill; but Shy Carmelita is talented enough to win at this class level, and Trainer Phil D'Amato has had success with this move in the past; so I'll be using Shy Carmelita as a "just in case" backup.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Coco Kisses (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Whoa Nessie (ML 4-1)
# 5 Zillinda (ML 5-1)
# 7 Warm It Up (ML 12-1)
# 9 Got an Obsession (ML 8-1)
Coco Kisses took the Place at this class level in her debut last time out. Whoa Nessie and Warm It up filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Zillinda looks to have talent, but seems to settle for too many minor awards. Got an Obsession may need a race off the extended vacation; but Got an Obsession certainly fits with the others here on class.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Donworth (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Deal With It Dude (ML 5-1)
# 10 Ike Walker (ML 5-2)
C's
# 5 Bellerin (ML 6-1)
# 11 Starr of Quality (ML 20-1)
Donworth was just a nose in front of Deal With It Dude at the wire at this class level last time out; but of the two I expect Donworth to benefit more from today's drier surface. Bellerin graduated convincingly in his first dirt route last time out.
Ike Walker goes first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who tends to do well with such. Starr of Quality is also going first off the claim, in his case for Trainer Bill Spawr; but while Spawr is too successful with his newbies to leave Starr of Quality completely off all tickets, I suspect that Starr of Quality is not quite classy enough to be competitive at this class level. At least, not yet.
RACE 9 - Md $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Cosa Nostra (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 6 Camps Bay (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Nate's Attack (ML 12-1)
# 5 Goodwillambassador (ML 4-1)
# 7 Holy Ghost (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bartlett Hall (ML 6-1)
# 11 Point Guard (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 12 Papa Joe (ML 5-1) and # 13 Mongolian Groom (ML 15-1)
Cosa Nostra (Ire) took the Show with a higher price tag on his head two starts back. Camps Bay took the Show over this turf course last time out. Nate's Attack and Goodwillambassador are two trying the turf for the first time whose breeding suggests that they will do well.
Holy Ghost is on the big ticket because there's no way I'm losing a Pick Four because I didn't use a runner named Holy Ghost on Easter Sunday. Bartlett Hall could improve with the cutback in distance. Point Guard was about a length behind Camps Bay at the wire last time out, and could improve in his second try on the turf.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 1 with 7 with 3,6 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,5,9 with 1 with 2,7,10 with 3,4,5,6,7,9,11 $42.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1 with 7 with 3,6 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 3,5,7,9 with 7 with 3,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1 with 5,11 with 3,6 $2.00
Total: $51.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:08 EDT / 2:08 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Happy Easter all! Hopefully each of you are having a wondrous Sunday, and by day's end, hopefully it will be even more wondrous. I decided to kick off the new month by moving my action back to Santa Anita, which is where I except it to reside for most weekends in April; excepting perhaps a stray day here or there. So with all that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - (F) OC 62.5k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 Spin Me a Kiss (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Angel Allie (ML 6-1)
# 4 Bowie (ML 4-1)
# 9 Zaffinah (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Shy Carmelita (ML 12-1)
Spin Me a Kiss, Angel Allie, Bowie, and Zaffinah (Ire) finished second through fifth (in that order) the last time they charged down the hill together at this class level. They all appear evenly matched; Spin Me a Kiss may be the most talented of the group. Maybe. Bowie seems to be the quickest and she may get away with soft fractions today. Zafffinah may move up as she goes third off the layoff.
Shy Carmelita is the new shooter here, charging down the hill for the first time as she seeks her first turf Win. I'm not exactly sure why you would want to take a runner who is three-for-ten lifetime sprinting on dirt and make her charge down the Santa Anita hill; but Shy Carmelita is talented enough to win at this class level, and Trainer Phil D'Amato has had success with this move in the past; so I'll be using Shy Carmelita as a "just in case" backup.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Coco Kisses (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Whoa Nessie (ML 4-1)
# 5 Zillinda (ML 5-1)
# 7 Warm It Up (ML 12-1)
# 9 Got an Obsession (ML 8-1)
Coco Kisses took the Place at this class level in her debut last time out. Whoa Nessie and Warm It up filled out the bottom two slots of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Zillinda looks to have talent, but seems to settle for too many minor awards. Got an Obsession may need a race off the extended vacation; but Got an Obsession certainly fits with the others here on class.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Donworth (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 2 Deal With It Dude (ML 5-1)
# 10 Ike Walker (ML 5-2)
C's
# 5 Bellerin (ML 6-1)
# 11 Starr of Quality (ML 20-1)
Donworth was just a nose in front of Deal With It Dude at the wire at this class level last time out; but of the two I expect Donworth to benefit more from today's drier surface. Bellerin graduated convincingly in his first dirt route last time out.
Ike Walker goes first off the claim for Trainer Peter Miller, who tends to do well with such. Starr of Quality is also going first off the claim, in his case for Trainer Bill Spawr; but while Spawr is too successful with his newbies to leave Starr of Quality completely off all tickets, I suspect that Starr of Quality is not quite classy enough to be competitive at this class level. At least, not yet.
RACE 9 - Md $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Cosa Nostra (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 6 Camps Bay (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Nate's Attack (ML 12-1)
# 5 Goodwillambassador (ML 4-1)
# 7 Holy Ghost (ML 5-1)
# 9 Bartlett Hall (ML 6-1)
# 11 Point Guard (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 12 Papa Joe (ML 5-1) and # 13 Mongolian Groom (ML 15-1)
Cosa Nostra (Ire) took the Show with a higher price tag on his head two starts back. Camps Bay took the Show over this turf course last time out. Nate's Attack and Goodwillambassador are two trying the turf for the first time whose breeding suggests that they will do well.
Holy Ghost is on the big ticket because there's no way I'm losing a Pick Four because I didn't use a runner named Holy Ghost on Easter Sunday. Bartlett Hall could improve with the cutback in distance. Point Guard was about a length behind Camps Bay at the wire last time out, and could improve in his second try on the turf.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 1 with 7 with 3,6 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,5,9 with 1 with 2,7,10 with 3,4,5,6,7,9,11 $42.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1 with 7 with 3,6 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 3,5,7,9 with 7 with 3,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1 with 5,11 with 3,6 $2.00
Total: $51.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:08 EDT / 2:08 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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