RACE 8 - The American (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Blackjackcat (Morning Line 5-2)
# 9 Kenjisstorm (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Ritzy A. P. (ML 12-1)
C's
# 2 What a View (ML 6-1)
# 3 Colonist (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Fabozzi (ML 10-1) and # 7 Free Rose (ML 6-1)
Note that while this contest is open to three year olds and upward, no three year olds are entered in this field. All runners are at least four years old. The same holds true for Race 9 below.
Blackjackcat, Show finisher in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile, peaked too soon last time out in the Grade 3 Thunder Road. I think it's fair to say that Blackjackcat needed that race and should improve off the effort.
Kenjisstorm looked strong in victory over this turf course last time out, going first time for the barn of Trainer Phil D'Amato. Ritzy A. P. may need a race off the bench; but Ritzy A. P. has always run well over this turf course.
What a View could be dangerous if he can shake free early. Colonist could improve with the cutback in distance.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Powder (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 2 Fair Regis (ML 6-1)
# 5 Queen Laila (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Glorious Hour (ML 8-1)
# 3 Princess Ashlyn (ML 6-1)
# 4 Princess Kendra (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 7 Wild At Midnight (ML 8-5)
Powder has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of her last two starts. Fair Regis took the Show behind Powder last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.
Queen Laila makes her four year old debut here; and her work over this track on the 15th suggests that she's ready to roll. An interesting note with Queen Laila is that my copy of the Past Performances gives Blinkers On as an equipment change; but Queen Laila has worn blinkers in each of her last three contests.
The backup "C" Selections are everyone else. While I don't see this as a wide-open contest worthy of going "ALL" on the big ticket, I do think that this race became a lot more competitive with the scratch of the Bob Baffert runner, Wild At Midnight. In addition, the horse that should now be the standout in this field, Queen Laila, has some question marks around her. For example, if Queen Laila is fully recovered from whatever sent her to the sidelines for over half a year, why is she being entered here, where she has to run for a tag of $40k? Perhaps the connections were worried that the second level Optional Claimer dirt sprint scheduled for Thursday the 26th wouldn't fill; perhaps they could find no other place for her to run; but it just strikes me as a poor gamble to chance losing Queen Laila for $40k if you think that she can return to her three year old form.
RACE 10 - [S] ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Infuriated Gary (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Rolls Royce Deal (ML 15-1)
# 3 Duluth (ML 4-1)
C's
# 4 Plain Wrap (ML 5-1)
# 5 Desert General (ML 6-1)
Infuriated Gary returns to state-bred company after defeating open company in each of his last two starts. Rolls Royce Deal could move up with a cleaner trip. Duluth won his debut by open lengths last time out.
Plain Wrap fits well here on class, but Plain Wrap has also had plenty of chances at this class level. Desert General is anther that often finds a way to lose races that he should win; but perhaps talent will win out today.
RACE 11 - (F) Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Resky Business (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 4 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 5-1)
# 8 Salsita (ML 4-1)
# 9 Lookinforadanger (ML 6-1)
C's
# 5 Revenue Virginius (ML 6-1)
# 10 Backintheacademy (ML 12-1)
# 10 Backintheacademy (ML 12-1)
Resky Business fits well at this class level on both dirt and turf, and could be loose on the lead early in this field. Peach Cove (NZ) could improve with the return to the flats. Salsita could improve with the return to turf.
Lookinforadanger is adding blinkers, so she should be close up to Resky Business early. Revenue Virginius has won on the turf before, though dirt may be her preferred surface.
Speaking of preferred, note that in the conditions "Non-Starters for a claiming price of $12,500 or less in their last 2 starts preferred." Well, I guess not enough preferred runners entered, as Backintheacademy is in here despite having run for a tag of less than $10k in each of her last two starts. Still, despite her class disadvantage, I give Backintheacademy an outside shot, because she just might be the one running best late.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,9 with 6 with 6 with 3 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,9 with 2,5,6 with 2,3,6 with 3,4,8,9 $54.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 6 with 6 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 1,3,4 with 6 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 6 with 4,5 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 6 with 6 with 5,10 $2.00
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:52 EDT / 3:52 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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