RACE 6 - The San Juan Capistrano (Grade 3) - Fourteen Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Nessy (Morning Line 6-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 A Red Tie Day (ML 6-1)
# 3 Evo Campo (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 4 Lazzam (GB) (ML 5-1)
# 5 Principal Bob (ML 20-1)
# 6 Moonman (ML 20-1)
# 7 Rye (ML 3-1)
Nessy looks to be the clear best here on talent, and it certainly looks like he can run all day, which is approximately today's distance. But Nessy has proven to be more than a bit camera shy in the past, getting his picture taken only twice in his twenty race career, and never in a stakes (listed or graded). Which is certainly a bit of a concern, especially with Morning Line odds of just 6-5.
Beyond Nessy, in my opinion there's no clear second choice in this field. So it's either single Nessy or hit the "ALL" button; and there's no way my budget allows me to go "ALL" in any leg of this sequence, which features at least three very competitive fields. So Nessy as a single it is.
The backup "C" Selections are everyone else. There's no reason to get cute here. So if Nessy can't get the job done, at least the play won't suffer a first round knockout.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Top of the Game (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Multiplier (ML 4-1)
# 3 Clear the Mine (ML 9-2)
# 5 Ike Walker (ML 7-2)
C's
# 4 Sorry Erik (ML 8-1)
# 7 Horse Greedy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Hoffenheim (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Law Abidin Citizen (ML 6-1)
Top of the Game gets some much needed class relief, as well as a cutback in real estate, both of which should help his cause considerably. Multiplier lost all chance at the start last time out, and should move up today. Besides, Multiplier has a history of winning on this day, having taken the Illinois Derby on April 22, 2017.
Clear the Mine and Ike Walker were a neck apart at the wire two starts back while filling out the Exacta. The "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - Clm $6.25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Blaze'n Prospector (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 2 Chromium (ML 7-2)
# 3 Private Prospect (ML 5-1)
# 6 I'll Wrap It Up (ML 6-1)
# 10 Four Gaels (ML 12-1)
C's
# 4 Giant Mark (ML 15-1)
Blaze'n Prospector ships in from the east, getting some significant class relief while being priced to sell. Chromium has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two starts, both against more expensive stock.
Private Prospect and Four Gaels filled out the Exacta at this class level last time out. I'll Wrap It Up and Giant Mark are a pair that could wake up with the class drop.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 6 Warm It Up (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Red Shelby (ML 3-1)
# 5 Fluorescent (ML 10-1)
# 7 Sheza Factor (ML 4-1)
# 8 Beauty Divine (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Lucy Buckner (ML 12-1)
# 10 Shanghai Tootsie (ML 12-1)
Note that while this is a Maiden Claiming, all the experienced runners in this field, excepting # 9 My Alchemist (ML 15-1) are exciting races for non-Claiming Maidens. So there's no point in getting too exciting about any one horse dropping in for a tag, as they're nearly all doing it.
Warm It Up ran well the last time that she charged down the hill, and would probably win today with a repeat of that effort. Red Shelby looks to be quickest here. Florescent is making her second career start for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who tends to do well with such.
Sheza Factor could get a nice trip pressing the early leader. Beauty Divine could improve with the return to the hill. Lucy Buckner and Shanghai Tootsie are a pair of debut runners that are well bred for the grass.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 2 with 11 with 6 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,3,5 with 2,3,6,10,11 with 2,5,6,7,8 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 2 with 11 with 6 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4,7,8 with 11 with 6 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2 with 4 with 6 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2 with 11 with 3,10 $1.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:08 EDT / 2:08 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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