The Grade 3 San Simeon is the featured race on Sunday's card in Arcadia. I'll be looking at that contest below, as well as an open claiming race and a pair of maiden events, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Temple Princess (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 4 Tell Me More (ML 6-5)
# 8 See the World (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Majestic Design (ML 5-1)
Temple Princess drops in for a tag for the first time in her career, as well as returning to her preferred surface. Tell Me More has finished in the Trifecta in all but one of her eight career starts. Tell Me More has also failed as the Post Time Favorite in half of her competitions. So Tell Me More can certainly win at this class level; though 6-5 may be way too short of a price to accept to find out if she will.
See the World can outrun her odds if she can settle early. Majestic Design took the Show at this class level two starts back.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Bobby Axelrod (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Lontani (ML 6-1)
# 2 Upo (ML 8-1)
# 5 Aurora d'Oro (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Pioneerofthestorm (ML 15-1)
# 10 Wicken Fen (ML 15-1)
# 11 King Cause (ML 10-1)
# 12 Victory Element (ML 8-1)
# 13 Bocephus (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 8 Geocas Dream (ML 50-1). Bring in # 13 Bocephus (ML 10-1) off the Also Eligible list to take his place.
Bobby Axelrod and Lontani each took the Place in their respective debuts at this class level in separate contests last time out. Upo took the Show at this class level last time out, and may benefit from having to cover less real estate today. Aurora d'Oro seems to have landed in a tough spot for his debut; but I think the way Aurora d'Oro has been working out justifies his spot on the main ticket.
Pioneerofthestorm, Wicked Fen, and Victory Element are three more first time starters that could upset the apple cart. King Cause and Bocephus each took the Show last time out in separate contests.
RACE 8 - The San Simeon (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Coniah (ML 4-1)
# 4 Belvoir Bay (GB) (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Miss Julia Star (Fr) (ML 15-1)
# 5 Isotherm (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 1 Conquest Tsunami (ML 8-5) and # 6 Double Touch (GB) (ML 12-1)
Belvoir Bay (GB) won the Mizdirection last time out charging down the Santa Anita hill, with Coniah less than a length behind. Miss Julia Star (Fr) could improve off the layoff. Isotherm has enough back class where he could win here, though I suspect this contest is just a tune up for a longer outing, as Isotherm seems to prefer covering more ground.
RACE 9 - Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Roaring Rule (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Gentrified (ML 5-1)
# 2 Shackleford Blues (ML 6-1)
# 3 Eagle Screams (ML 3-1)
# 8 Muchos Besos (ML 6-1)
C's
# 6 Ground Rules (ML 8-1)
# 7 Howdy (ML 15-1)
# 10 Sanavi (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 11 Most Determined (ML 20-1), who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list
Roaring Rule moves up in class after a sharp victory last time out. Gentrified took the Place against more expensive stock two starts back. Shackleford Blues took the Place behind Roaring Rules last time out. Eagle Screams drops in class and could be best here; but the career oh-for-eleven on Fast dirt tracks is more than a bit of a concern.
Muchos Besos won at this level last time out; though getting the early lead today may prove to be a bit more of a challenge. Ground Rules has won in the past going first off the layoff. Howdy could move up with the class drop. Sanavi could improve with the change in barn.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 4 with 3,4 with 9 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,7,8 with 1,2,4,5 with 3,4 with 1,2,3,8,9 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 3,4 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 6,10,11,12,13 with 3,4 with 9 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 2,5 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 4 with 3,4 with 6,7,10 $3.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:09 EDT / 2:09 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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