It's Santa Anita Derby Day in Arcadia, California, with a half dozen stakes blended into a well drawn card. Three of the Graded Stakes events, including the day's featured race, will be examined below; as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 9 - The Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Bolt d'Oro (ML 6-5)
B's
# 1 Instilled Regard (ML 5-1)
# 6 Justify (ML 4-5)
C's
None
Bolt d'Oro is clearly the most accomplished runner in this field. Instilled Regard may improve with a return to West Coast time. This is the race where Justify either puts up or shuts up. I think Justify will run well here; but if I were playing the Win Pool, I'd be extremely hesitant to back him at less than double his Morning Line.
RACE 10 - (F) The Royal Heroine (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Enola Gray (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Sophie P (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 5 Thundering Sky (ML 5-1)
# 9 Sassy Little Lila (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Madame Stripes (Arg) (ML 7-2)
# 8 Mongolian Shopper (ML 15-1)
Enola Gray won the Grade 3 Wilshire last time out; last time out being last July. If Enola Gray is ready to roll after the nine month vacation then she looks to be best here.
Sophie P was an upset winner in each of her last two starts; perhaps she can keep the string going. Thundering Sky could move forward off the freshening. Sassy Little Lila could improve with the cutback in distance.
Beau Recall (Ire) could improve with the return to the eight furlong distance. Madame Stripes (Arg) may improve off the brief break. Mongolian Shopper could improve with the stretch out.
RACE 11 - (F) The Santa Anita Oaks (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Midnight Bisou (ML 6-5)
B's
# 7 Spectator (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Fool's Paradise (ML 30-1)
# 5 Finess Bere (Fr) (ML 15-1)
# 6 Exuberance (ML 12-1)
Midnight Bisou misses by just two noses of being a perfect four-for-four for her career. Spectator looked sharp in her three year old debut last time out, and could improve off that effort.
Fool's Paradise looked well suited to the distance while graduating last time out. Finess Bere (Fr) may discover that she prefers dirt to turf. Exuberance has shown steady improvement in each of her route races.
RACE 12 - (F) OC 62.5k/N2X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Pantsonfire (Ire) (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Laseen (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 7 The Tulip (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 10 Queen Blossom (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Dalsaros (ML 8-1)
# 9 Arch of Troy (ML 12-1)
Scratch # 3 Starlite Style (ML 30-1) and # 8 Hachi (Chi) (ML 8-1)
Pantsonfire took the Show at this class level last time out. Laseen (Ire) fits well here on class, and can certainly win today; that is, provided that she feels like running. The Tulip (Ire) ran well enough last time out to suggest that she can handle the class rise.
Queen Blossom (Ire) may improve with the cutback in distance. Dalsaros has breeding that suggests that she'll do well on the grass; certainly better than she did in her debut. Arch of Troy is quick enough that she could get a nice pace pressing trip with the outside draw.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 6 with 3 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,6 with 2,5,6,9 with 3,7 with 1,2,7,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3,7,8 with 3 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 6 with 4,5,6 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 3 with 6 with 3 with 6,9 $1.00
Total: $53.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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