6/28/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The Senorita - # 2 Sheza Smoke Show (Final Odds 10.60) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Gold Cup at Santa Anita - # 6 Majestic Harbor (14.40) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 A Red Tie Day (6.50) - No Selection
Race 10 - # 1 American Pride (1.60*) - "A" Selection

A most unfortunate play for us, as the two events in which we had no part of the eventual winner were races that saw two of our "A" selections fail to cross the finish line; as # 8 Clenor (Ire) (3.70) was pulled up in Race 7 prior to reaching the first turn; while # 4 Chelios (4.10*) was pulled up leaving the second turn in Race 9.  Fortunately, both horses were able to walk off the track.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  2 / 6 / 3 / 1  were rewarded with a payout of $2,824.60 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/28/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"Any man can win when things go his way; it's the man who overcomes adversity that is the true champion."  - Jock Ewing

It's Hollywood Gold Cup Day @ Santa Anita, and there are four Graded Stakes on the card.  Unfortunately, there won't be an all-Graded Stakes Pick Four, even though the four are being run sequentially; however, all four will be a part of Saturday's Pick Six, for those who play that game.  As for us, we'll focus per the usual on the Late Pick Four.

RACE 7 - (F) The Senorita (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Clenor (Ire) (Morning Line 4-1)

C’s

# 4 Morning Fix (ML 5-1)
# 6 Sushi Empire (ML 6-1)
# 7 Famous Alice (ML 7-2)

Clenor (Ire) appears to be ready to advance beyond the form she showed as a juvenile, when she won back-to-back stakes.  Morning Fix has run well upstate, taking the Show her first time on the turf even though she was running above her conditions.  Sushi Empire began the year winning the Blue Norther Stakes, but that was her last visit to the Winner's Circle; her breeding suggests that she should do better.  Famous Alice has been in the Exacta in all three of her career starts on the Santa Anita turf. 

RACE 8 - The Gold Cup at Santa Anita (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Game On Dude (ML 4-5)
# 2 Fury Kapcori (ML 9-2)
# 3 Clubhouse Ride (ML 9-2)

C’s

# 4 Imperative (ML 4-1)
# 5 Salto Del Indio (Chi) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Majestic Harbor (ML 12-1)
# 7 Lideris (ML 20-1)

Just like in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, Post Position 1 at Santa Anita is not the place to be for ten furlong contests.  In addition, Game On Dude has developed into a need-to-lead type, and he'll have Fury Kapcori right at his side as soon as the gates open.  But Fury Kapcori put in a strong effort in the Grade 2 Californian, and made need more time to recover.  For that matter, Fury Kapcori may simply stumble out of the gate; in that case, Game On Dude could be long gone before the rest of the field gets started.  Likewise if the 'Dude should have trouble out of the gate, Fury Kapcori could be the one leading the field all the way around the track.

But if those two hook up, then the rest of the field has a chance.  Perhaps Clubhouse Ride can repeat his performance in the Californian, dropping in late to go past the front runners.  

But if Game On Dude and Fury Kapcori wear each other down, and Clubhouse Ride regresses off his effort in the Californian (and believe me, that not a very big but; as this scenario is quite possible) then this becomes a chaos race; hence the use of everyone else in the field as C's.

RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Chelios (ML 6-1)
# 6 Back to Bako (ML 5-1)

C’s

# 1 Mr Lexis (ML 12-1)
# 7 My Friend Jimmy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Heat Flash (ML 9-2)

Chelios shares the same dam as Old Time Hockey, so he should do just fine his first time competing on some California grass.  Back to Bako took the Place last time out in his first try against open company.

The connections of Mr Lexis thought enough of him to run him twice at the highest level back in Peru; and note that he just missed by a neck in his second career start at being a Group 1 winner.  Expect My Friend Jimmy and Heat Flash to be charging late, so if this one is won by a deep closer, it should be one of those two.

RACE 10 - OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 American Pride (ML 5-2)
# 3 He's Had Enough (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 6 Parliamentarian (ML 8-1)
# 7 Final Step (ML 4-1)
# 10 Celebrity Status (ML 6-1)

American Pride earned a Beyer Speed Figure last time out well above the career best of anyone else in this field.  Even if the Bob Baffert trained American Pride should regress off that effort he should still be in the mix here.  He's Had Enough drops in class and looms as the best late runner in a field that shows a lot of early speed.

Parliamentarian flashed some early speed in his return earlier this month.  If Parliamentarian runs back to his effort against state bred company in March he'll definitely be in the mix.  Final Step comes back from an extended vacation for a trainer (Peter Miller) who gets approximately 25% winners with such.  Celebrity Status has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last two starts.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 1,2,3 with 4,6 with 1,3 $12.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,6,7 with 1,2,3 with 4,6 with 1,3 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4,5,6,7 with 4,6 with 1,3 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,2,3 with 1,7,8 with 1,3 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,2,3 with 4,6 with 6,7,10 $9.00

Total: $56.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/14/14 GG R7 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

City Chapel, the longshot claim that we've been following, made her twenty-seventh start for Owner/Trainer Victor Trujillo Saturday in Race 7 at Golden Gate Fields, an unrestricted $20k Claiming Race.  Breaking from the five hole, City Chapel (Final Odds 6.60) was last at the half and sixth after three quarters before going three wide in the stretch to pass tiring runners and grab the Show.  For his efforts today City Chapel earned $2,400 in purse money for his connections, bringing his total earnings since joining the Trujillo barn to $72,955.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/14/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 7 Nueva Fortuna (Final Odds 6.80) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Shoemaker Mile - # 1 Obviously (Ire) (1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Vanity - # 1 Iotapa (4.60) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Warrenscrystalized (15.10) - No Selection

Getting home an "A" selection at nearly 7-1 is about as good a beginning as you can ask for a horizontal wager.  Obviously made us look foolish for not singling him in our play, but we were wise to spread in The Vanity, as Post Time Favorite # 4 Let Faith Arise (1.70*) and second choice # 3 Grace Hall (1.80) crossed the wire well back of Iotapa, who won by over ten lengths.

For posterity's sake, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the six horses to which we were alive in the finale:

# 3 Euroclydon $319.80
# 4 Tangelo $414.45
# 5 Shysheisnot $226.65
# 8 Cravin’ the Heat $833.60
# 9 Jenny’s V. $2134.35
# 11 Q’ Viva $366.40

On the one hand, you could say that we came close to cashing, as we were alive to 60% of the field in the last leg.  On the other hand, it's hard to say that we were close to collecting since we not only failed to have the winner, but we also did not have the Place horse, # 7 Discatsonthesquare (25.60) on our tickets.  But close or not close is neither here nor there, as the bottom line is that our bottom line takes another hit.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Congratulations to Jockey Joe Talamo, who had four winners on the day, including a sweep of the last three races on the card.  Congratulations also to all those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 1 / 1 / 1 which returned $695.60 for a fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/14/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"My father taught me that the only way you can make good at anything is to practice, and then practice some more." - Pete Rose

Hopefully all you daddies out there are enjoying this Father's Day weekend, and I hope each of you get that one special gift that nearly all of you seem to want: a nap without being disturbed.  But there's time enough for that later; for now, let's take a look at Saturday's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 6 Red Barris (Morning Line 9-2)

# 7 Nueva Fortuna (ML 3-1)

# 8 Brandon's Princess (ML 6-5)

C's

None

Red Barris drops down to the cheapest price tag of her career.  Note also the alternating up and down speed figure pattern, which suggests that she'll be on the improve today.  Nueva Fortuna could be cycling back up to her career best figure.  Brandon's Princess missed by less than a length at this level last time out, and today goes fist off the claim for a barn that gets approximately 28% winners with such.  Note that Red Barris, Nueva Fortuna, and Brandon's Princess have the three best Tomlinson Ratings for today's distance in the field.

# 1 Citizen Jane (ML 6-1) is certainly one to consider when filling out your vertical wagers; but she seems to have an aversion to crossing the wire first.  # 2 Classic Journey (ML 12-1) is certainly better than her last outing, but is she as good as her race prior to that one?  My guess is that she'll run somewhere between those two efforts.  

# 5 Wicked City Woman broke her maiden last time out competing against quarter horses; perhaps an interesting study could be done as to how such fare when competing at races involving turns.

RACE 7 - The Shoemaker Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Obviously (Ire) (ML 9-5)

C’s

# 2 Jack Milton (ML 3-1)

# 4 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 5-2)

# 5 Summer Front (ML 6-1)

Everytime I see Obviously in the entries I feel like there's an Abbott & Costello routine waiting to be written.  Obviously is the defending champ for this event (when it was run at Hollywood Park), and enters it much as he did last year, coming off a gate-to-wire victory in the American Stakes (also run at Hollywood Park last year, when it was the American Handicap).  He's the speed of the speed here and he's got the rail, so there shouldn't be a lot of brain cells wasted on figuring out what his strategy should be.

Winning Prize is coming off back-to-back career best efforts.  Normally that would be a red flag for a five year old, but I think the three month vacation will allow him to return at peak form.  Jack Milton and Summer Front are the two most likely beneficiaries if Winning Prize and # 6 Pulpit's Express (ML 30-1) can stick close enough to Obviously to get him to expend too much energy early; but if Obviously runs his race, than the efforts of those two are likely to be too little too late.

RACE 8 - (F) The Vanity (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Let Faith Arise (ML 2-1)

C’s

# 1 Iotapa (ML 4-1)

# 3 Grace Hall (ML 5-2)

# 5 Scherzinger (ML 9-2)

The only other time in her career that Let Faith Arise tried nine furlongs, she won the Grade 1 Santa Margarita Stakes over this main track.  Let Faith Arise has yet to finish out of the Exacta when competing on California dirt.

Iotapa was able to defeat Let Faith Arise in the Grade 2 Santa Maria earlier this year.  Grace Hall is making her second start after being on the shelf for over a year; note that Trainer Bill Mott wins with such more than a quarter of the time.  Scherzinger makes her first career start around two turns.  Since Scherzinger has the best Tomlinson Rating is this field for today's distance, I suspect that she'll handle it well.

RACE 9 - (F) [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 3 Euroclydon (ML 5-2)

# 4 Tangelo (ML 6-1)

# 5 Shysheisnot (ML 7-2)

# 8 Cravin' the Heat (ML 8-1)

# 9 Jenny's V. (ML 12-1)

# 11 Q' Viva (ML 9-2)

C’s

None

Euroclydon showed marked improvement last time out, when she was wearing blinkers and charging down the hill for the first time in her career; indeed, she came within a neck of graduating against winners.  Tangelo makes her second career start for Trainer Ben Cecil, who gets approximately 25% winners from such.  Shysheisnot makes her turf debut for Trainer John Sadler.  As Shysheisnot has the best Tomlinson Rating for the turf in today's field, I suspect that she'll do just fine running on some California grass.

Cravin' the Heat has been all over the place in her ten career starts: sprints and routes; turf, dirt, and synthetics.  But if you look at her Beyer Speed Figures for just those races where she's charged down the hill, you'll see 58 (her career debut) / 69 / 68 / 73.  Just a slight step up from those would have her being the one to get her picture taken today.

Jenny's V. takes a step down the class ladder into state restricted company.  Q' Viva has been showing steady improvement, and took the Place last time out (her first time down the hill) at this level behind a next out winner.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6,7,8 with 1 with 4 with 3,4,5,8,9,11 $18.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 6,7,8 with 2,4,5 with 4 with 3,4,5,8,9,11 $27.00

$0.50 P4: 6,7,8 with 1 with 1,3,5 with 3,4,5,8,9,11 $27.00

Total: $72.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/7/14 Belmont Park All Grade 1 Pick Four - Results

Race 8 - The Just a Game - # 5 Coffee Clique (Final Odds 4.80) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap - # 1 Palace Malice (1.35*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Manhattan - # 8 Real Solution (5.50) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Belmont - # 11 Tonalist (9.20) - No Selection

Well, he didn't win it.  California Chrome didn't become horse racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner.  Had he won we would have cashed (for the record, the $0.50 Will Pay was $145.25).  But he didn't win; and we didn't cash.

Oh well; onto the next race.

But while he didn't win The Belmont Stakes, what California Chrome did accomplish was bringing an excitement and energy to the sport that had not been seen in quite some time.  I'll be honest; this year's running of The Belmont was the most excited I've been about any horse race since I can remember.  So while it didn't end the way we hoped, it was still a wonderful ride.  And for that, I thank Trainer Art Sherman and Jockey Victor Espinoza.  Good Lord willing, they'll each get another shot at the big prize before it's time to call it quits.

Meanwhile, congratulations to Tonalist and his connections on winning The Belmont Stakes: Owner Robert Evans (whose father, Thomas Mellon Evans, was the owner of Pleasant Colony, who was one Belmont Stakes win shy of winning the Triple Crown in 1981); Trainer Christophe Clement; and Jockey Joel Rosario.  And, of course, congrats to all those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of  5 / 1 / 8 / 11 which returned $425.25 for a fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/7/14 Belmont Park All Grade 1 Pick Four - Preview

So this is it; the big day.  Will California Chrome break the long dry spell and become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed?  I think so, but; well, more later.  In the meantime, NYRA has put together a Breeders' Cup Day like card at Belmont Park today; so be sure to enjoy a great day of racing that hopefully will include a historic happening.

RACE 8 - (F) The Just A Game (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf

A’s

# 6 Stephanie's Kitten (Morning Line 4-1)
# 9 Discreet Marq (ML 5-2)
# 10 Better Lucky (ML 3-1)

C’s

# 4 Somali Lemonade (ML 8-1)
# 5 Coffee Clique (ML 10-1)

# 3 Dame Marie (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

It could just be that Stephanie's Kitten doesn't like the grass at Keeneland; note that the only two times since her debut that she's finished more than three lengths behind the winner were the ones that she ran over the Keeneland turf course.  If that's the case, then Stephanie's Kitten should be the one crossing the wire first today.

Discreet Marq has been in the Exacta in eight straight races, and only one of her defeats in that span was by more than a length.  Better Lucky is back on grass where she belongs.  Note that the last time that today's rider, Joel Rosario, was on board Better Lucky was this event last year, when she finished just a half length behind Stephanie's Kitten.

Expect Somali Lemonade to be forwardly placed, as she was last time out while wiring the field in the Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap; but also be aware that she can also come off the pace, as she did when winning the Grade 3 Dr James Penny last year.  Coffee Clique gave a career best effort last time out in winning the Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile.  That effort may have drained her, but it's also possible that this four year old will be able to take another step forward today.

RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Palace Malice (ML 8-5)

C’s

# 2 Vyjack (ML 30-1)
# 13 Shakin It Up (ML 6-1)

# 6 Central Banker (ML 8-1) has been scratched.

Palace Malice is the standout in this field; though the back-to-back career best efforts may be a cause for concern.  An even bigger cause for concern could be the rail draw, as Palace Malice may have to gun it right from the opening bell, which really isn't his game.

Vyjack is a much better horse when he doesn't have to go around two turns and could be sitting on a big one.  Besides, you shouldn't easily dismiss a horse that was able to close from the clouds on the Aqueduct winter track to win a Graded Stakes.  Shakin It Up seems to do better first off the layoff than the second time off the bench; but an effort similar to the one he gave in the Churchill Downs could be good enough to win today.

RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf Course

A’s

# 1 Imagining (ML 7-2)
# 6 Seek Again (ML 3-1)

C’s

# 8 Real Solution (ML 5-1)

Imagining has done quite well in his career on the Belmont Park Inner Turf Course, where early speed tends to hold up.  But also note that Imagining can win from off the pace, which he may have to do if # 7 Five Iron (ML 15-1) flies out of the gate.  Seek Again is a Grade 1 winner at today's distance, and was just a head bob away from beating Wise Dan last time out.  Real Solution could pull the upset if things get too hectic up front; but he'll need everything to break just right.

RACE 11 - The Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 California Chrome (ML 3-5)

C’s

# 1 Medal Count (ML 20-1)

# 7 Samraat (ML 20-1)

# 8 Commissioner (ML 20-1)

# 9 Wicked Strong (ML 6-1)

Well, this is it; will he or won't he?  Speaking from my heart, I would love to see California Chrome become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed.  I've been blessed in that I'm old enough to remember the great champions of the 1970's, and I would love to see the younger fans of today experience that same thrill.

If this was any other race besides the third jewel of the Triple Crown, this would be a no-brainer.  California Chrome is the clear class of this field, and on paper projects to have a huge pace advantage over his competitors.  But history must be respected; and many great horses since Affirmed, from Spectacular Bid on through Smarty Jones, have been in this position before and have come up short.

Medal Count, Commissioner, and Wicked Strong seem to be the best bred in this field (at least as designated by their respective Tomlinson Ratings) to cover the twelve furlongs "Test of Champions".  Samraat deserves consideration based upon his fine effort in this year's Kentucky Derby.

OK, that's the analysis.  We'll be playing our tickets via the Crist method, but with a couple of other tickets tossed in as well:

All A Entries

$2.00 P4: 6,9,10 with 1 with 1,6 with 2 $12.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 1 with 1,6 with 2 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6,9,10 with 2,13 with 1,6 with 2 $6.00

$0.50 P4: 6,9,10 with 1 with 8 with 2 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 6,9,10 with 1 with 1,6 with 1,7,8,9 $12.00

A's will ALL in the Belmont

$0.50 P4: 6,9,10 with 1 with 1,6 with ALL $33.00

All A's & C's with California Chrome

$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,9,10 with 1,2,13 with 1,6,8 with 2 $22.50

Total: $89.00

Post Time for Race 8 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/1/14 Santa Anita Pick Five - Results

Race 1 - # 4 American Pride (Final Odds 0.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 2 - # 1 Dr Williams (2.79) - No Selection
Race 3 - # 4 L T Reckless (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 4 - # 1 Wasted At Midnight (3.10) - "A" Selection
Race 5 - The Siren Lure - # 3 Pure Tactics (4.60) - "A" Selection

Certainly not one of our better plays.  We could have saved $16 by having some more faith in the Bob Baffert runner in the opener, and Wasted At Midnight turned out to indeed be a standout in Race 4.  So as strange as it may sound, even though we had the Winner in those two legs, I feel that the errors made there were more egregious than the omission that killed the play, which was leaving Dr Williams completely off our ticket.  Quite frankly, there just wasn't enough to like about Dr Williams, a runner making his second career start on dirt in his seventeenth career race, going for Trainer George Lopez whose runners, prior to today, were oh-for-2014, oh-for-their last 23 in routes, and oh-for-their last 33 on dirt.  But there you have it, so congrats to Trainer George Lopez on the victory, and good luck to Trainer Eric Kruljac, who gets Dr Williams in a four way shake.

So the good news is that we get home four "A" selections.  The bad news is that it happens not when we're playing the Pick 4, but the Pick 5.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five sequence of  4 / 1 / 4 / 1 / 3  were rewarded with a payout of $185.80 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/1/14 Santa Anita Pick Five - Preview

Welcome to June!  Glad we made it.  Changing things up a bit today and playing the front part of the card today; so with that, let's take at look at today's Pick Five @ Santa Anita:

RACE 1 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 American Pride (Morning Line 4-5)

C’s

# 3 Steep N Deep (ML 4-1)
# 6 Rusty Road (ML 4-1)

American Pride and # 1 Wrightwood (ML 8-1) are the only two experienced runners in this field of six, and both are making their first starts of 2014.  However, while Wrightwood's Trainer Mike Harrington is winless in his last sixteen attempts to saddle a winner coming off an extended layoff of greater than six months, American Pride is trained by Bob Baffert, who gets 25% winners from those coming off a long vacation.  Also note that American Pride was competitive at this level before going on the shelf, taking the Place in his last start.  Finally, note that American Pride possesses the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field.

Steep N Deep and Rusty Road are a pair of first time starters that deserve respect for their respective connections' ability to get debuters to graduate.

RACE 2 - Clm $10k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 5 Coo Cachoo (ML 6-5)

C's

# 4 Tuckers Point (ML 2-1)

# 6 Unstopper Topper (ML 8-1)

Coo Cachoo takes a step up the class ladder after winning at the $8k level last time out.  Since the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in that victory was better than par at this level, Coo Cachoo stands a good chance of repeating.  

Tuckers Point has been solid if unspectacular in his recent form, and the 80 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in his last outing represents his best career effort over this Santa Anita main track.  Note that each of the last two times Tuckers Point earned a 79 BSF he regressed in his next outing.

Unstopper Topper makes his third start off a layoff while going from two sprints to a route.  Unstopper Topper has been showing a pattern of steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in his most recent races.  Unstopper Topper has also shown the ability to be quick early; so if he can get off the mark quicker than Coo Cachoo, it's quite possible that Unstopper Topper will be that one to hit the wire first.

RACE 3 - (F) Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 4 L T Reckless  (ML 8-5)

# 6 Time for Angie (ML 5-2)

C's

None

# 5 Sensational Nikki (ML 2-1) has been scratched.

L T Reckless goes first off the claim for new conditioner Robertino Diodoro, who gets approximately 28% winners with such.  L T Reckless is two-for-three lifetime competing over the Santa Anita main track, and has only one loss in her career when competing on a fast dirt surface, that one loss coming in her only try against Stakes company.

Time for Angie should improve with the move back to dirt after the try charging down the hill last time out.  Time for Angie has also shown the ability to win at this level in the past, earning two victories this past winter with today's price tag on her head, one of which came with today's jockey Kent Desormeaux on her back.

RACE 4 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Wasted At Midnight (ML 4-1)

# 4 Southern Sunshine (ML 5-1)

# 5 Point Endurance (ML 20-1)

C’s

# 2 Best Efforts (ML 6-1)

# 3 Little Miss S (ML 9-5)

# 7 Delphia (ML 12-1)

# 6 Spy Girl (ML 4-1) has been scratched.

I'm using everyone in this one; the experienced runners as "A's" and the first time starters as "C's".  Normally a horse like # 1 Wasted At Midnight would be a standout here based on her last effort; but the fact that she's already failed nine times in her attempts to graduate is a red flag.  Also note that the last time that she earned a Beyer Speed Figure as high as she did in her last race she bounced all the way down to a seventh place finish (as the Post Time Favorite, no less).  Finally, Wasted At Midnight draws the rail, which has not been faring well this meet in sprints on the main track.  Therefore, I suspect that this could turn into a chaos race, which is why every runner is being used in some form.

RACE 5 - The Siren Lure $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 3 Pure Tactics (ML 5-2)

# 6 Chips All In (ML 7-5)

C's 

# 2 Rosengold (ML 5-1)

# 5 Zimmer (ML 9-2)

Pure Tactics goes for the Jockey / Trainer combo of Doug O'Neill / Mike Smith, who have won nearly half of all the events in which they've teamed up.  Pure Tactics has also been working well since his try in the Grade 3 San Simeon.  Chips All In is four-for-eight lifetime on the Santa Anita turf, and is a Graded Stakes winner charging down the hill.

Rosengold projects to be the early front runner here, and is a prior stakes winner having taken the field from the top of the hill to the wire last year in The Baffle.  Zimmer has shown the ability to win on the front end and when taken back; that versatility could prove quite useful today.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 4 with 5 with 4,6 with 1,4,5,8 with 3,6 $16.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 3,6 with 5 with 4,6 with 1,4,5,8 with 3,6 $16.00

$0.50 P5: 4 with 4,6 with 4,6 with 1,4,5,8 with 3,6 $16.00

$0.50 P5: 4 with 5 with 4,6 with 2,3,7 with 3,6 $6.00

$0.50 P5: 4 with 5 with 4,6 with 1,4,5,8 with 2,5 $8.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 1 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo