RACE 1 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 American Pride (Morning Line 4-5)
C’s
# 3 Steep N Deep (ML 4-1)
# 6 Rusty Road (ML 4-1)
American Pride and # 1 Wrightwood (ML 8-1) are the only two experienced runners in this field of six, and both are making their first starts of 2014. However, while Wrightwood's Trainer Mike Harrington is winless in his last sixteen attempts to saddle a winner coming off an extended layoff of greater than six months, American Pride is trained by Bob Baffert, who gets 25% winners from those coming off a long vacation. Also note that American Pride was competitive at this level before going on the shelf, taking the Place in his last start. Finally, note that American Pride possesses the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field.
Steep N Deep and Rusty Road are a pair of first time starters that deserve respect for their respective connections' ability to get debuters to graduate.
RACE 2 - Clm $10k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Coo Cachoo (ML 6-5)
C's
# 4 Tuckers Point (ML 2-1)
# 6 Unstopper Topper (ML 8-1)
Coo Cachoo takes a step up the class ladder after winning at the $8k level last time out. Since the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in that victory was better than par at this level, Coo Cachoo stands a good chance of repeating.
Tuckers Point has been solid if unspectacular in his recent form, and the 80 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in his last outing represents his best career effort over this Santa Anita main track. Note that each of the last two times Tuckers Point earned a 79 BSF he regressed in his next outing.
Unstopper Topper makes his third start off a layoff while going from two sprints to a route. Unstopper Topper has been showing a pattern of steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in his most recent races. Unstopper Topper has also shown the ability to be quick early; so if he can get off the mark quicker than Coo Cachoo, it's quite possible that Unstopper Topper will be that one to hit the wire first.
RACE 3 - (F) Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 L T Reckless (ML 8-5)
# 6 Time for Angie (ML 5-2)
C's
None
# 5 Sensational Nikki (ML 2-1) has been scratched.
L T Reckless goes first off the claim for new conditioner Robertino Diodoro, who gets approximately 28% winners with such. L T Reckless is two-for-three lifetime competing over the Santa Anita main track, and has only one loss in her career when competing on a fast dirt surface, that one loss coming in her only try against Stakes company.
Time for Angie should improve with the move back to dirt after the try charging down the hill last time out. Time for Angie has also shown the ability to win at this level in the past, earning two victories this past winter with today's price tag on her head, one of which came with today's jockey Kent Desormeaux on her back.
RACE 4 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Wasted At Midnight (ML 4-1)
# 4 Southern Sunshine (ML 5-1)
# 5 Point Endurance (ML 20-1)
C’s
# 2 Best Efforts (ML 6-1)
# 3 Little Miss S (ML 9-5)
# 7 Delphia (ML 12-1)
# 6 Spy Girl (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
I'm using everyone in this one; the experienced runners as "A's" and the first time starters as "C's". Normally a horse like # 1 Wasted At Midnight would be a standout here based on her last effort; but the fact that she's already failed nine times in her attempts to graduate is a red flag. Also note that the last time that she earned a Beyer Speed Figure as high as she did in her last race she bounced all the way down to a seventh place finish (as the Post Time Favorite, no less). Finally, Wasted At Midnight draws the rail, which has not been faring well this meet in sprints on the main track. Therefore, I suspect that this could turn into a chaos race, which is why every runner is being used in some form.
RACE 5 - The Siren Lure $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Pure Tactics (ML 5-2)
# 6 Chips All In (ML 7-5)
C's
# 2 Rosengold (ML 5-1)
# 5 Zimmer (ML 9-2)
Pure Tactics goes for the Jockey / Trainer combo of Doug O'Neill / Mike Smith, who have won nearly half of all the events in which they've teamed up. Pure Tactics has also been working well since his try in the Grade 3 San Simeon. Chips All In is four-for-eight lifetime on the Santa Anita turf, and is a Graded Stakes winner charging down the hill.
Rosengold projects to be the early front runner here, and is a prior stakes winner having taken the field from the top of the hill to the wire last year in The Baffle. Zimmer has shown the ability to win on the front end and when taken back; that versatility could prove quite useful today.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 4 with 5 with 4,6 with 1,4,5,8 with 3,6 $16.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 3,6 with 5 with 4,6 with 1,4,5,8 with 3,6 $16.00
$0.50 P5: 4 with 4,6 with 4,6 with 1,4,5,8 with 3,6 $16.00
$0.50 P5: 4 with 5 with 4,6 with 2,3,7 with 3,6 $6.00
$0.50 P5: 4 with 5 with 4,6 with 1,4,5,8 with 2,5 $8.00
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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