RACE 8 - (F) The Just A Game (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf
A’s
# 6 Stephanie's Kitten (Morning Line 4-1)
# 9 Discreet Marq (ML 5-2)
# 10 Better Lucky (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 4 Somali Lemonade (ML 8-1)
# 5 Coffee Clique (ML 10-1)
# 3 Dame Marie (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
It could just be that Stephanie's Kitten doesn't like the grass at Keeneland; note that the only two times since her debut that she's finished more than three lengths behind the winner were the ones that she ran over the Keeneland turf course. If that's the case, then Stephanie's Kitten should be the one crossing the wire first today.
Discreet Marq has been in the Exacta in eight straight races, and only one of her defeats in that span was by more than a length. Better Lucky is back on grass where she belongs. Note that the last time that today's rider, Joel Rosario, was on board Better Lucky was this event last year, when she finished just a half length behind Stephanie's Kitten.
Expect Somali Lemonade to be forwardly placed, as she was last time out while wiring the field in the Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap; but also be aware that she can also come off the pace, as she did when winning the Grade 3 Dr James Penny last year. Coffee Clique gave a career best effort last time out in winning the Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile. That effort may have drained her, but it's also possible that this four year old will be able to take another step forward today.
RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Palace Malice (ML 8-5)
C’s
# 2 Vyjack (ML 30-1)
# 13 Shakin It Up (ML 6-1)
Palace Malice is the standout in this field; though the back-to-back career best efforts may be a cause for concern. An even bigger cause for concern could be the rail draw, as Palace Malice may have to gun it right from the opening bell, which really isn't his game.
Vyjack is a much better horse when he doesn't have to go around two turns and could be sitting on a big one. Besides, you shouldn't easily dismiss a horse that was able to close from the clouds on the Aqueduct winter track to win a Graded Stakes. Shakin It Up seems to do better first off the layoff than the second time off the bench; but an effort similar to the one he gave in the Churchill Downs could be good enough to win today.
RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf Course
A’s
# 1 Imagining (ML 7-2)
# 6 Seek Again (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 8 Real Solution (ML 5-1)
Imagining has done quite well in his career on the Belmont Park Inner Turf Course, where early speed tends to hold up. But also note that Imagining can win from off the pace, which he may have to do if # 7 Five Iron (ML 15-1) flies out of the gate. Seek Again is a Grade 1 winner at today's distance, and was just a head bob away from beating Wise Dan last time out. Real Solution could pull the upset if things get too hectic up front; but he'll need everything to break just right.
RACE 11 - The Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 California Chrome (ML 3-5)
C’s
# 1 Medal Count (ML 20-1)
# 7 Samraat (ML 20-1)
# 8 Commissioner (ML 20-1)
# 9 Wicked Strong (ML 6-1)
Well, this is it; will he or won't he? Speaking from my heart, I would love to see California Chrome become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed. I've been blessed in that I'm old enough to remember the great champions of the 1970's, and I would love to see the younger fans of today experience that same thrill.
If this was any other race besides the third jewel of the Triple Crown, this would be a no-brainer. California Chrome is the clear class of this field, and on paper projects to have a huge pace advantage over his competitors. But history must be respected; and many great horses since Affirmed, from Spectacular Bid on through Smarty Jones, have been in this position before and have come up short.
Medal Count, Commissioner, and Wicked Strong seem to be the best bred in this field (at least as designated by their respective Tomlinson Ratings) to cover the twelve furlongs "Test of Champions". Samraat deserves consideration based upon his fine effort in this year's Kentucky Derby.
OK, that's the analysis. We'll be playing our tickets via the Crist method, but with a couple of other tickets tossed in as well:
All A Entries
$2.00 P4: 6,9,10 with 1 with 1,6 with 2 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 1 with 1,6 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6,9,10 with 2,13 with 1,6 with 2 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 6,9,10 with 1 with 8 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 6,9,10 with 1 with 1,6 with 1,7,8,9 $12.00
A's will ALL in the Belmont
$0.50 P4: 6,9,10 with 1 with 1,6 with ALL $33.00
All A's & C's with California Chrome
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,9,10 with 1,2,13 with 1,6,8 with 2 $22.50
Total: $89.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment