Hopefully all you daddies out there are enjoying this Father's Day weekend, and I hope each of you get that one special gift that nearly all of you seem to want: a nap without being disturbed. But there's time enough for that later; for now, let's take a look at Saturday's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Red Barris (Morning Line 9-2)
# 7 Nueva Fortuna (ML 3-1)
# 8 Brandon's Princess (ML 6-5)
C's
None
Red Barris drops down to the cheapest price tag of her career. Note also the alternating up and down speed figure pattern, which suggests that she'll be on the improve today. Nueva Fortuna could be cycling back up to her career best figure. Brandon's Princess missed by less than a length at this level last time out, and today goes fist off the claim for a barn that gets approximately 28% winners with such. Note that Red Barris, Nueva Fortuna, and Brandon's Princess have the three best Tomlinson Ratings for today's distance in the field.
# 1 Citizen Jane (ML 6-1) is certainly one to consider when filling out your vertical wagers; but she seems to have an aversion to crossing the wire first. # 2 Classic Journey (ML 12-1) is certainly better than her last outing, but is she as good as her race prior to that one? My guess is that she'll run somewhere between those two efforts.
# 5 Wicked City Woman broke her maiden last time out competing against quarter horses; perhaps an interesting study could be done as to how such fare when competing at races involving turns.
RACE 7 - The Shoemaker Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Obviously (Ire) (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 2 Jack Milton (ML 3-1)
# 4 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 5-2)
# 5 Summer Front (ML 6-1)
Everytime I see Obviously in the entries I feel like there's an Abbott & Costello routine waiting to be written. Obviously is the defending champ for this event (when it was run at Hollywood Park), and enters it much as he did last year, coming off a gate-to-wire victory in the American Stakes (also run at Hollywood Park last year, when it was the American Handicap). He's the speed of the speed here and he's got the rail, so there shouldn't be a lot of brain cells wasted on figuring out what his strategy should be.
Winning Prize is coming off back-to-back career best efforts. Normally that would be a red flag for a five year old, but I think the three month vacation will allow him to return at peak form. Jack Milton and Summer Front are the two most likely beneficiaries if Winning Prize and # 6 Pulpit's Express (ML 30-1) can stick close enough to Obviously to get him to expend too much energy early; but if Obviously runs his race, than the efforts of those two are likely to be too little too late.
RACE 8 - (F) The Vanity (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Let Faith Arise (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 1 Iotapa (ML 4-1)
# 3 Grace Hall (ML 5-2)
# 5 Scherzinger (ML 9-2)
The only other time in her career that Let Faith Arise tried nine furlongs, she won the Grade 1 Santa Margarita Stakes over this main track. Let Faith Arise has yet to finish out of the Exacta when competing on California dirt.
Iotapa was able to defeat Let Faith Arise in the Grade 2 Santa Maria earlier this year. Grace Hall is making her second start after being on the shelf for over a year; note that Trainer Bill Mott wins with such more than a quarter of the time. Scherzinger makes her first career start around two turns. Since Scherzinger has the best Tomlinson Rating is this field for today's distance, I suspect that she'll handle it well.
RACE 9 - (F) [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Euroclydon (ML 5-2)
# 4 Tangelo (ML 6-1)
# 5 Shysheisnot (ML 7-2)
# 8 Cravin' the Heat (ML 8-1)
# 9 Jenny's V. (ML 12-1)
# 11 Q' Viva (ML 9-2)
C’s
None
Euroclydon showed marked improvement last time out, when she was wearing blinkers and charging down the hill for the first time in her career; indeed, she came within a neck of graduating against winners. Tangelo makes her second career start for Trainer Ben Cecil, who gets approximately 25% winners from such. Shysheisnot makes her turf debut for Trainer John Sadler. As Shysheisnot has the best Tomlinson Rating for the turf in today's field, I suspect that she'll do just fine running on some California grass.
Cravin' the Heat has been all over the place in her ten career starts: sprints and routes; turf, dirt, and synthetics. But if you look at her Beyer Speed Figures for just those races where she's charged down the hill, you'll see 58 (her career debut) / 69 / 68 / 73. Just a slight step up from those would have her being the one to get her picture taken today.
Jenny's V. takes a step down the class ladder into state restricted company. Q' Viva has been showing steady improvement, and took the Place last time out (her first time down the hill) at this level behind a next out winner.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6,7,8 with 1 with 4 with 3,4,5,8,9,11 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,7,8 with 2,4,5 with 4 with 3,4,5,8,9,11 $27.00
$0.50 P4: 6,7,8 with 1 with 1,3,5 with 3,4,5,8,9,11 $27.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:38 EDT / 3:38 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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