We came oh so close to cashing a Late Pick Four Ticket Saturday at Del Mar; but, as you all already know, oh so close just means we cashed for oh oh oh (or, more accurately, oh point oh oh ($0.00)).
Race 7 saw our A selection, # 5 Somethings Unusual (Final Odds 5.70) take the Show in a blanket finish, as five horses were within a length of the Winner, # 6 Bio Pro (19.10) at the finish line. The Place horse, # 2 Tom's Tribute (3.10*) and the fourth place finisher, # 9 My Samurai Warrior (24.90) were both C selections; but, as the card would play out, it would be the failure of our A selection, Somethings Unusual, to be a neck closer to the wire at the end that would doom our play.
Race 8, the San Diego Handicap, was won by one of our three A selections, # 1 Kettle Corn (3.60), who, as expected, came running late from dead last to pass a tiring # 3 Paynter (0.60*). Race 9 witnessed # 8 Corsa Di Cavalli (6.00) winning by a half-length over the other Sadler entry (and the only other horse in the field with a prior Del Mar victory) # 3 Life a Riley (8.80).
Finally, the finale: Race 10, which saw our two A selections, # 6 Winning Rhythm (2.60*) and # 8 Twisted Purpose (16.30) finish one - two, combining for a $2 Quinella that Paid $52.00, and a $1.00 Exacta that was worth $42.80.
So, with all that, our $18.00 Ticket of
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 1, 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 6, 8
was the one that came the closest to being cashed, having three Winners and one Photo Finish loser. But, again, nearly winning is not winning; so the net result from our Late Pick Four play is a loss of $44.50.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those who actually won (rather than almost won) by playing the correct sequence of 6 / 1 / 8 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $1399.10 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Saturday, July 27, 2013
7/27/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - The Play
As I mentioned several times in my comments on the individual races, I think this Late Pick Four is extremely challenging; but, hopefully, I've come up with a play that will give us some action while also granting us a legitimate chance at making a profit.
Play this one for one dollar and fifty cents:
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 1, 3, 6
RACE 9: 9
RACE 10: 6, 8
Cost: $9.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 2, 7, 9
RACE 8: 1, 3, 6
RACE 9: 9
RACE 10: 6, 8
Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 4
RACE 9: 9
RACE 10: 6, 8
Cost: $1.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 1, 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 6, 8
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 1, 3, 6
RACE 9: 9
RACE 10: 2, 4, 7, 9, 10
Cost: $7.50
TOTAL COST: $44.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Play this one for one dollar and fifty cents:
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 1, 3, 6
RACE 9: 9
RACE 10: 6, 8
Cost: $9.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 2, 7, 9
RACE 8: 1, 3, 6
RACE 9: 9
RACE 10: 6, 8
Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 4
RACE 9: 9
RACE 10: 6, 8
Cost: $1.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 1, 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10
RACE 10: 6, 8
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 1, 3, 6
RACE 9: 9
RACE 10: 2, 4, 7, 9, 10
Cost: $7.50
TOTAL COST: $44.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
7/27/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
Saturday's Late Pick Four at Del Mar looks like a tough one to crack, as all four races appear to be extremely competitive. I'll post my thoughts on the fields here; and then later let you all know how (and if) I plan on playing my tickets.
RACE 7 - Alw N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 2 Tom’s Tribute (Morning Line 5-2) has the most impressive Beyer Speed Figures in the field; and, being lightly raced, also fits the profile of a contender in a first level allowance race. But Tom’s Tribute will be trying at least two new things today:
1) This will be his first race around two turns;
2) This will be his first race on some California grass
Factor in that Trainer James Cassidy does not do well with entrants making their first turf start (one win in his last twenty-two tries), and it’s fair to say that Tom’s Tribute to be disproportionately overbet in the Win Pool relative to his actual chances of winning.
# 5 Somethings Unusual (ML 5-1) has a late running style that may give him an edge today, as this field contains a lot of early speed. Somethings Unusual has earned (for the most part) steadily increasing Beyers over his career, competing almost exclusively against State-bred company. So today will be a step up the class ladder for Somethings Unusual; but if he can once again just slightly improve on his prior effort, he just might get his picture taken when this one is over.
# 7 Swift Eagle (ML 7-2) has taken the Place and Show his last two times out, both at this class level. He is also one of just two horses in this field with a win over the Jimmy Durante Turf Course. Swift Eagle’s Beyers show a steady up-and-down pattern over his ten race form, with today scheduled to be an up day. If Swift Eagle can keep from getting burned out on the front end today, he should be in the mix at the wire.
# 9 My Samuri Warrior (ML 12-1) is stretching out after competing in four straight turf sprints. Trainer Victor Garcia does quite well with that move; but Garcia has not been very successful in Allowance Races.
Worth noting: Chantal Sutherland-Kruse, riding # 3 Sumerian (ML 15-1) is listed as having only two starts in 2013. Apparently, those who keep these records officially are unaware that Jockey Chantal Sutherland-Kruse and Jockey Chantal Sutherland are, in fact, the same person.
I’m giving strong consideration to rolling the dice and going with # 5 Somethings Unusual as my lone “A” contender; put, as you see, there are several here that are worthy of consideration.
RACE 8 - The A San Diego Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 3 Paynter (ML 9-5) continues his miraculous comeback from his life-threatening battles last Fall with laminitis and colitis. However, as well regarded as Paynter is, and as much of a feel-good story each of his victories from here on out will be, this one is by no means a walk-over for the four year old colt.
# 1 Kettle Corn (ML 7-2) was scratched out of last night’s running of the Grade 3 Cougar II Handicap in order to compete in this one. His last time out, Kettle Corn took the Place behind Game On Dude in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup. With more pace to chase in this one, and without The Dude in the field, Kettle Corn looms as a very strong contender.
Speaking of Game On Dude, # 6 Clubhouse Ride (ML 4-1) has faced The Dude in four of his last five outings, taking the Place behind The Dude in three of those events. Look for Clubhouse Ride to be alongside Kettle Corn while making a late run for the wire.
# 4 Liaison (ML 3-1) is the always dangerous “other Baffert” in this one; that is, the Bob Baffert horse that is not the heavy favorite. Liaison took the Place behind Clubhouse Ride in the Grade 2 Californian his last time out, and finished more than a length in front of Kettle Corn in the process of winning the Grade 2 Mervyn LeRoy Handicap two races back.
If the pace unfolds as it looks on form, Paynter will be battling # 2 Batti Man (Arg) (ML 15-1) and # 5 Chief Havoc (ML 5-1) on the front end in the early going. Liaison should get first run at those three, with Kettle Corn and Clubhouse Ride charging from the rear. I’m currently leaning towards Clubhouse Ride; but this one looks to be very competitive, and could come down to which horse gets the best trip.
RACE 9 - Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 1 South Floyd (ML 9-2), # 3 Life a Riley (ML 12-1) and # 9 Seven Bridges (ML 7-2) are the three in this field racing for the first time with a price tag on their heads. Seven Bridges possesses the best Beyers in the field over the Del Mar main track, along with the best overall Beyers in the field. South Floyd draws the rail and just may steal this one on the front end. Life a Riley and # 8 Corse Di Cavalli (ML 6-1) are the only two in this group with Wins over the Del Mar main track; not so coincidentally, those two are also both trained by John Sadler.
# 7 Salah Champ (ML 8-1) makes his first start since breaking his maiden last December. Salah Champ’s trainer, Mike Mitchell, has a .24 Winning Percentage with horses coming back from a vacation of more than six months.
# 10 Lovemeister (ML 10-1) finished in the money in each of his last two races, both at this class level; while # 6 Judge Carr (ML 6-1) took the Show and the Place two and three races back against more difficult Starter Allowance company.
Another competitive field. Currently leaning towards Seven Bridges.
RACE 10 (F)MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 6 Winning Rhythm (ML 5-2) has posted Beyers of 76 and 71 her last two outings, both in turf routes against this level of competition, while finishing in the money in each of those events. She was ridden by Mike Smith in each of her prior career starts; but as Smith is busy in New York today, Rafael Bejarano will get the ride.
# 8 Twisted Purpose (ML 20-1) has, like Winning Rhythm, earned steadily improving Beyers in each of her career turf routes.
# 7 Iconic Spirit (ML 7-2) is showing the signs of being a perennial bridesmaid, constantly finishing in the money at this level without ever crossing the wire first.
# 9 Tappingintherain (ML 4-1) has the best last out Beyer in the field in a contest in which she just missed winning by a head. But that event was on a different surface and around just one turn; something to keep in mind, even though her breeding suggests that she should handle both the turf and the distance with little problem.
# 2 Hollywood Heroine (ML 12-1) and # 4 Renegade Ride (ML 12-1) are both first time starters, both trained by Tim Yakteen, who wins at a 17% clip with debut runners. Both Hollywood Heroine and Renegade Ridge have been training well for over two months. It’ll be interesting to see which of the two draws more of the early wagering.
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. I expect to be back at last twenty minutes prior to that with how (and if) I'll be playing this extremely challenging Late Pick Four.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - Alw N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 2 Tom’s Tribute (Morning Line 5-2) has the most impressive Beyer Speed Figures in the field; and, being lightly raced, also fits the profile of a contender in a first level allowance race. But Tom’s Tribute will be trying at least two new things today:
1) This will be his first race around two turns;
2) This will be his first race on some California grass
Factor in that Trainer James Cassidy does not do well with entrants making their first turf start (one win in his last twenty-two tries), and it’s fair to say that Tom’s Tribute to be disproportionately overbet in the Win Pool relative to his actual chances of winning.
# 5 Somethings Unusual (ML 5-1) has a late running style that may give him an edge today, as this field contains a lot of early speed. Somethings Unusual has earned (for the most part) steadily increasing Beyers over his career, competing almost exclusively against State-bred company. So today will be a step up the class ladder for Somethings Unusual; but if he can once again just slightly improve on his prior effort, he just might get his picture taken when this one is over.
# 7 Swift Eagle (ML 7-2) has taken the Place and Show his last two times out, both at this class level. He is also one of just two horses in this field with a win over the Jimmy Durante Turf Course. Swift Eagle’s Beyers show a steady up-and-down pattern over his ten race form, with today scheduled to be an up day. If Swift Eagle can keep from getting burned out on the front end today, he should be in the mix at the wire.
# 9 My Samuri Warrior (ML 12-1) is stretching out after competing in four straight turf sprints. Trainer Victor Garcia does quite well with that move; but Garcia has not been very successful in Allowance Races.
Worth noting: Chantal Sutherland-Kruse, riding # 3 Sumerian (ML 15-1) is listed as having only two starts in 2013. Apparently, those who keep these records officially are unaware that Jockey Chantal Sutherland-Kruse and Jockey Chantal Sutherland are, in fact, the same person.
I’m giving strong consideration to rolling the dice and going with # 5 Somethings Unusual as my lone “A” contender; put, as you see, there are several here that are worthy of consideration.
RACE 8 - The A San Diego Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 3 Paynter (ML 9-5) continues his miraculous comeback from his life-threatening battles last Fall with laminitis and colitis. However, as well regarded as Paynter is, and as much of a feel-good story each of his victories from here on out will be, this one is by no means a walk-over for the four year old colt.
# 1 Kettle Corn (ML 7-2) was scratched out of last night’s running of the Grade 3 Cougar II Handicap in order to compete in this one. His last time out, Kettle Corn took the Place behind Game On Dude in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup. With more pace to chase in this one, and without The Dude in the field, Kettle Corn looms as a very strong contender.
Speaking of Game On Dude, # 6 Clubhouse Ride (ML 4-1) has faced The Dude in four of his last five outings, taking the Place behind The Dude in three of those events. Look for Clubhouse Ride to be alongside Kettle Corn while making a late run for the wire.
# 4 Liaison (ML 3-1) is the always dangerous “other Baffert” in this one; that is, the Bob Baffert horse that is not the heavy favorite. Liaison took the Place behind Clubhouse Ride in the Grade 2 Californian his last time out, and finished more than a length in front of Kettle Corn in the process of winning the Grade 2 Mervyn LeRoy Handicap two races back.
If the pace unfolds as it looks on form, Paynter will be battling # 2 Batti Man (Arg) (ML 15-1) and # 5 Chief Havoc (ML 5-1) on the front end in the early going. Liaison should get first run at those three, with Kettle Corn and Clubhouse Ride charging from the rear. I’m currently leaning towards Clubhouse Ride; but this one looks to be very competitive, and could come down to which horse gets the best trip.
RACE 9 - Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 1 South Floyd (ML 9-2), # 3 Life a Riley (ML 12-1) and # 9 Seven Bridges (ML 7-2) are the three in this field racing for the first time with a price tag on their heads. Seven Bridges possesses the best Beyers in the field over the Del Mar main track, along with the best overall Beyers in the field. South Floyd draws the rail and just may steal this one on the front end. Life a Riley and # 8 Corse Di Cavalli (ML 6-1) are the only two in this group with Wins over the Del Mar main track; not so coincidentally, those two are also both trained by John Sadler.
# 7 Salah Champ (ML 8-1) makes his first start since breaking his maiden last December. Salah Champ’s trainer, Mike Mitchell, has a .24 Winning Percentage with horses coming back from a vacation of more than six months.
# 10 Lovemeister (ML 10-1) finished in the money in each of his last two races, both at this class level; while # 6 Judge Carr (ML 6-1) took the Show and the Place two and three races back against more difficult Starter Allowance company.
Another competitive field. Currently leaning towards Seven Bridges.
RACE 10 (F)MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 6 Winning Rhythm (ML 5-2) has posted Beyers of 76 and 71 her last two outings, both in turf routes against this level of competition, while finishing in the money in each of those events. She was ridden by Mike Smith in each of her prior career starts; but as Smith is busy in New York today, Rafael Bejarano will get the ride.
# 8 Twisted Purpose (ML 20-1) has, like Winning Rhythm, earned steadily improving Beyers in each of her career turf routes.
# 7 Iconic Spirit (ML 7-2) is showing the signs of being a perennial bridesmaid, constantly finishing in the money at this level without ever crossing the wire first.
# 9 Tappingintherain (ML 4-1) has the best last out Beyer in the field in a contest in which she just missed winning by a head. But that event was on a different surface and around just one turn; something to keep in mind, even though her breeding suggests that she should handle both the turf and the distance with little problem.
# 2 Hollywood Heroine (ML 12-1) and # 4 Renegade Ride (ML 12-1) are both first time starters, both trained by Tim Yakteen, who wins at a 17% clip with debut runners. Both Hollywood Heroine and Renegade Ridge have been training well for over two months. It’ll be interesting to see which of the two draws more of the early wagering.
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. I expect to be back at last twenty minutes prior to that with how (and if) I'll be playing this extremely challenging Late Pick Four.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
7/21/13 SAC R3 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, whom we have been following since he was claimed for $4k last August, made his fifteenth start for Trainer Victor Trujillo Sunday in Race 3 at Sacramento. The event, contested at a distance of six furlongs over the main dirt track, was a Starter Allowance; and thus, a step up in class for City Chapel, as this marks the first race that City Chapel has run for the Trujillo barn without a price tag on his head.
City Chapel (Final Odds 6.30) broke last from the gate, and was still last at the half-mile mark; but, in the words of the chart caller, he "finished steadily" and was able to secure the Place, two lengths behind the Winner, Classic Crusader (2.00*). The Place finish was worth $4,050 in purse money (more than City Chapel had originally been claimed for!) and brings City Chapel's total purse winnings for Victor Trujillo to $29,595.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
City Chapel (Final Odds 6.30) broke last from the gate, and was still last at the half-mile mark; but, in the words of the chart caller, he "finished steadily" and was able to secure the Place, two lengths behind the Winner, Classic Crusader (2.00*). The Place finish was worth $4,050 in purse money (more than City Chapel had originally been claimed for!) and brings City Chapel's total purse winnings for Victor Trujillo to $29,595.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, July 20, 2013
7/20/13 SAR R2 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Last month we added Pete and David to our watch list after the three year old gelding was claimed for $20k by Trainer Bruce Levine. Saturday, Pete and David made his first start for the Levine barn, competing in Race 2 at Saratoga. The event was an MSW restricted to state bred horses, run at a distance of five and a half furlongs over a firm turf course.
According to the chart caller's notes, Pete and David (Final Odds 15.90) did not enjoy a very smooth trip. Pete and David was in tight early, and then checked about two furlongs after break. How much of the trouble was of Pete and David's own making is difficult to say; but the bottom line is that Pete and David finished eleventh in the field of twelve, a little over thirteen lengths behind the winner, Asset Inflation (1.85*).
The purse money earned by Pete and David in Saturday's contest was $200, or one percent of the $20k for which he was claimed. It would appear that Trainer Bruce Levine still has quite a bit of work to do in order to get his money's worth from the purchase.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
According to the chart caller's notes, Pete and David (Final Odds 15.90) did not enjoy a very smooth trip. Pete and David was in tight early, and then checked about two furlongs after break. How much of the trouble was of Pete and David's own making is difficult to say; but the bottom line is that Pete and David finished eleventh in the field of twelve, a little over thirteen lengths behind the winner, Asset Inflation (1.85*).
The purse money earned by Pete and David in Saturday's contest was $200, or one percent of the $20k for which he was claimed. It would appear that Trainer Bruce Levine still has quite a bit of work to do in order to get his money's worth from the purchase.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, July 18, 2013
7/17/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
We played our Late Pick Four Tickets looking for value and hoping for action. Well, while we got those things, what we didn't get was a winning play.
But first, a quick look at our "Plus One" - Race 6, the first division of The Oceanside Stakes. We stated a preference of # 2 Gervinho (Final Odds 2.90) over # 6 Freakin Rocket (3.40) over # 5 Undrafted (1.80*); and that's the order in which they finished, taking the Win, Show, and Fourth positions respectively; while the Place went to # 4 Greeley Awesome (14.00).
Turning now to the Late Pick Four, # 4 Diamond of Blue (Final Odds 4.40) crossed the wire first in Race 7, winning the photo finish against our "A" selection, # 6 Royal Meridian (1.40*), and proving us wrong regarding our pessimism about Diamond of Blue's ability to wire the field. As Diamond of Blue was one of our “C” contenders we remained alive in the Late Pick Four; but we needed our "A" contenders to win the next three legs.
We were able to cheer “A” contenders onto victory in Race 8 (# 5 Love de Car - Final Odds 2.80*) and in Race 10 (# 12 Spring Up - Final Odds 5.20). But we completely dropped the ball in Race 9 - the second division of The Oceanside Stakes; as our two “A” contenders, # 7 Joelito (3.60) and # 9 Rosengold (5.60) both finished out of the money; indeed, even our "C" selection, # 4 Den's Legacy (2.20*) failed to hit the board. Worse still, we never gave a serious thought to the eventual winner, # 10 Rising Legend (GB) (7.80). Small consolation in that we were not alone in misjudging the real contenders in this field, as the Trifecta in Race 9 of # 10 Rising Legend / # 2 Gabriel Charles (4.40) / # 8 Olympic Blue (47.10) paid $1,469.50 for a buck.
So, with those results, we were left with a ticket (the $16 one) that had three of four winners; which, as you all know, pays absolutely nothing. So our day ended with a net loss on our Pick Four play of $38.00.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct sequence of 4 / 5 / 10 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $1,000.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
But first, a quick look at our "Plus One" - Race 6, the first division of The Oceanside Stakes. We stated a preference of # 2 Gervinho (Final Odds 2.90) over # 6 Freakin Rocket (3.40) over # 5 Undrafted (1.80*); and that's the order in which they finished, taking the Win, Show, and Fourth positions respectively; while the Place went to # 4 Greeley Awesome (14.00).
Turning now to the Late Pick Four, # 4 Diamond of Blue (Final Odds 4.40) crossed the wire first in Race 7, winning the photo finish against our "A" selection, # 6 Royal Meridian (1.40*), and proving us wrong regarding our pessimism about Diamond of Blue's ability to wire the field. As Diamond of Blue was one of our “C” contenders we remained alive in the Late Pick Four; but we needed our "A" contenders to win the next three legs.
We were able to cheer “A” contenders onto victory in Race 8 (# 5 Love de Car - Final Odds 2.80*) and in Race 10 (# 12 Spring Up - Final Odds 5.20). But we completely dropped the ball in Race 9 - the second division of The Oceanside Stakes; as our two “A” contenders, # 7 Joelito (3.60) and # 9 Rosengold (5.60) both finished out of the money; indeed, even our "C" selection, # 4 Den's Legacy (2.20*) failed to hit the board. Worse still, we never gave a serious thought to the eventual winner, # 10 Rising Legend (GB) (7.80). Small consolation in that we were not alone in misjudging the real contenders in this field, as the Trifecta in Race 9 of # 10 Rising Legend / # 2 Gabriel Charles (4.40) / # 8 Olympic Blue (47.10) paid $1,469.50 for a buck.
So, with those results, we were left with a ticket (the $16 one) that had three of four winners; which, as you all know, pays absolutely nothing. So our day ended with a net loss on our Pick Four play of $38.00.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct sequence of 4 / 5 / 10 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $1,000.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
7/17/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - The Play
I'll be honest; I was very tempted to simply pass the Late Pick Four today. As I wrote in the prior post, I think Race 8 could very well be a chaos race; in addition, I think I've uncovered a few more legitimate contenders in both the first and final leg. But after juggling the numbers I believe that I've come up with a play that, while perhaps not optimal, does offer us a chance to catch some value for our money. So, with that, here are the Late Pick Four tickets that I'll be playing today:
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 5, 7
RACE 9: 7, 9
RACE 10: 12, 13
Cost: $8.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 1, 2, 4, 8
RACE 8: 5, 7
RACE 9: 7, 9
RACE 10: 12, 13
Cost: $16.00
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 6, 8
RACE 9: 7, 9
RACE 10: 12, 13
Cost: $4.00
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 5, 7
RACE 9: 4
RACE 10: 12, 13
Cost: $2.00
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 5, 7
RACE 9: 7, 9
RACE 10: 2, 3, 6, 9
Cost: $8.00
TOTAL COST: $38.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:17 EDT / 5:17 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 5, 7
RACE 9: 7, 9
RACE 10: 12, 13
Cost: $8.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 1, 2, 4, 8
RACE 8: 5, 7
RACE 9: 7, 9
RACE 10: 12, 13
Cost: $16.00
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 6, 8
RACE 9: 7, 9
RACE 10: 12, 13
Cost: $4.00
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 5, 7
RACE 9: 4
RACE 10: 12, 13
Cost: $2.00
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 5, 7
RACE 9: 7, 9
RACE 10: 2, 3, 6, 9
Cost: $8.00
TOTAL COST: $38.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:17 EDT / 5:17 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
7/17/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Opening Day at Del Mar! Sing it, Bing!
Below is a look at today's Late Pick Four plus one; as we'll also comment on Race 6, since it is the co-feature race on the card (being one of the two divisions of The Oceanside Stakes).
RACE 6 - [R]Oceanside 100k - The Oceanside First Division - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 2 Gervinho (Morning Line 4-1) shows the steady improvement you like in see in a young horse’s Beyer Speed Figures, while also sporting a stakes win in open company.
# 5 Undrafted (ML 5-2) is a perfect three-for-three in non-stakes races, while being oh-for-six against stakes competition. In fairness to Undrafted, none of those six losses were on the grass; but that record does advise caution against taking too short a price on a horse that may have class issues.
# 6 Freakin Rocket (ML 7-2) is a perfect two-for-two for his career; both wins coming in sprints on Hollywood’s cushion track. So this will be first time routing and first time turfing for Freakin Rocket; normally a huge red flag, but his breeding suggests that Freakin Rocket is better suited to both those conditions than he is to those he encountered in his two wins.
Again, this race isn’t part of the Late Pick Four; so any play I might make will depend on what the odds look like as they get close to post. But using the Morning Line as a gauge, I would prefer Gervinho over Freakin Rocket over Undrafted.
RACE 7 - Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Sir Allison (ML 4-1) just missed his last time out at this level, the cheapest price tag for which he had ever competed. Sir Allison’s form shows that he was competitive in his career against more expensive, so the problem here may be one of desire more than ability.
# 4 Diamond of Blue (ML 6-1) took the Place at this level two back, in the race in which he was claimed by Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer away from Trainer Ron Ellis. Diamond of Blue demonstrated the ability to rate as a three year old, but seems to have developed into a “need to lead” type this year. Because of that, Diamond of Blue is winless since March 2012; and unless he suddenly relearns how to rate, he’s going to find any attempt to wire this field a tough row to hoe.
# 6 Royal Meridian (ML 3-1) makes his first start against straight claimers since breaking his maiden for $40k last June. Royal Meridian is a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar main track, and the Beyers he has earned in his last three races (87, 87, 88) are all above par for this level.
# 8 Legal Separation (ML 4-1) won two back against more expensive while sprinting on the Santa Anita grass; that was also the race in which he was claimed by Trainer John Sadler. Sadler tried Legal Separation against more expensive last time out ($40k OC) and, after that one race, has decided to cut his losses, offering Legal Separation for sale for twelve grand less than what he paid to acquire him back in April. His Beyers look weak for this bunch; but the class drop and the addition of Rosario in the saddle could be enough for Legal Separation to get his picture taken when this race is over.
EDIT: Forgot to include # 1 Magic Beam (ML 7-2) who just missed at this level last time out and is making his first start off the claim for Trainer Bill Spawr, who wins nearly 30% of the time with such.
RACE 8 - [S]Md Sp Wt $75k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
None of the experienced runners in the field have ever come within nine points of par in their Beyer Speed Figures; so this one could very well be a chaos race.
# 5 Love de Car (ML 5-1) is one of the three first time starters in the field. Love de Car has only been working steady since June; but his sire Decarchy gets 14% winners from his debuting offspring, and Trainer Jeff Mullins clicks at a 20% rate when sending horses to post for the first time. Having Joel Rosario in the saddle certainly adds to the appeal.
# 6 Pulla Train (ML 20-1) and # 8 In Excessiveness (ML 15-1) are the other two first time starters in this field. Both are going for conditioners who have had limited success with debuters; but they have both been working steady leading up to this one, and both come from sires whose offspring win often enough when competing for the first time to warrant some respect.
# 7 Hope ‘n Pray (ML 6-1) just missed against open company his last time out; the class drop in State-bred ranks may be enough to put him over the top.
Again, this one shows all the signs of being a chaos race. The wise move would probably be to hit the “ALL” button for this one; we’ll see.
RACE 9 - [R]Oceanside 100k - The Oceanside Second Division - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 4 Den’s Legacy (ML 7-2) makes his first start on grass since winning the Grade 3 Generous Stakes back in November (note that Den’s Legacy hasn’t won since). The return to turf, the drop in class, the Jockey / Trainer combo of Rosario and Baffert should all combine to guarantee that Den’s Legacy will be heavily over-bet.
# 7 Joelito (ML 5-1) has won two of his last three starts, all on the turf at today’s approximate distance. Joe Talamo, who was on board for both of those victories, will be on Joelito’s back again today.
# 9 Rosengold (ML 9-2) comes into today’s event with a four race winning streak; the last three coming against open stakes company on the grass. Martin Garcia, who rode Rosengold in each of those four victories, gets the mount again today.
RACE 10 Md $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Jimmy the Whip (ML 5-1) grabbed the early lead in his debut his last time out, before fading in the stretch. Trainer Mike Mitchell does quite well with Maidens making their second start (.21 Winning Percentage) as well as with runners coming back after a 31-60 day freshening (.23 Winning Percentage). Joe Talamo, who was on board Jimmy the Whip for the debut, gets the mount again today.
# 6 Big Macher (ML 5-1) makes his debut for Trainer Peter Miller, who clicks 26% of the time with first time starters; a rate that jumps to 29% when considering only debuters in Maiden Claimers. Joel Rosario, should he stick around until the end of the card, is scheduled to get the mount. EDIT - Mixed up my jockeys; Edwin Maldonado gets the ride today on Spring Up.
# 12 Spring Up (ML 5-1) rides in from Arkansas to take on the locals. Spring Up made a big step forward in his last start in April; and conditioner Audrey Cody does quite well with runners returning after a two-to-three month vacation (25% winners) as well as with Maiden Claimers overall (31%).
# 13 Wildcat Candy (ML 7-2) draws in from the Also Eligibles to make his first start for a tag, in addition to his first start as a gelding. Wildcat Candy’s Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance (418) ranks as the best in this field.
Again, the Late Pick Four begins with Race 7; Post Time is 5:17 PDT; 8:17 EDT. I'll try to be back at least a half-hour before that and share with everyone whatever play I'll be making today.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDITED to fix a couple of very silly mistakes.
Below is a look at today's Late Pick Four plus one; as we'll also comment on Race 6, since it is the co-feature race on the card (being one of the two divisions of The Oceanside Stakes).
RACE 6 - [R]Oceanside 100k - The Oceanside First Division - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 2 Gervinho (Morning Line 4-1) shows the steady improvement you like in see in a young horse’s Beyer Speed Figures, while also sporting a stakes win in open company.
# 5 Undrafted (ML 5-2) is a perfect three-for-three in non-stakes races, while being oh-for-six against stakes competition. In fairness to Undrafted, none of those six losses were on the grass; but that record does advise caution against taking too short a price on a horse that may have class issues.
# 6 Freakin Rocket (ML 7-2) is a perfect two-for-two for his career; both wins coming in sprints on Hollywood’s cushion track. So this will be first time routing and first time turfing for Freakin Rocket; normally a huge red flag, but his breeding suggests that Freakin Rocket is better suited to both those conditions than he is to those he encountered in his two wins.
Again, this race isn’t part of the Late Pick Four; so any play I might make will depend on what the odds look like as they get close to post. But using the Morning Line as a gauge, I would prefer Gervinho over Freakin Rocket over Undrafted.
RACE 7 - Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Sir Allison (ML 4-1) just missed his last time out at this level, the cheapest price tag for which he had ever competed. Sir Allison’s form shows that he was competitive in his career against more expensive, so the problem here may be one of desire more than ability.
# 4 Diamond of Blue (ML 6-1) took the Place at this level two back, in the race in which he was claimed by Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer away from Trainer Ron Ellis. Diamond of Blue demonstrated the ability to rate as a three year old, but seems to have developed into a “need to lead” type this year. Because of that, Diamond of Blue is winless since March 2012; and unless he suddenly relearns how to rate, he’s going to find any attempt to wire this field a tough row to hoe.
# 6 Royal Meridian (ML 3-1) makes his first start against straight claimers since breaking his maiden for $40k last June. Royal Meridian is a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar main track, and the Beyers he has earned in his last three races (87, 87, 88) are all above par for this level.
# 8 Legal Separation (ML 4-1) won two back against more expensive while sprinting on the Santa Anita grass; that was also the race in which he was claimed by Trainer John Sadler. Sadler tried Legal Separation against more expensive last time out ($40k OC) and, after that one race, has decided to cut his losses, offering Legal Separation for sale for twelve grand less than what he paid to acquire him back in April. His Beyers look weak for this bunch; but the class drop and the addition of Rosario in the saddle could be enough for Legal Separation to get his picture taken when this race is over.
EDIT: Forgot to include # 1 Magic Beam (ML 7-2) who just missed at this level last time out and is making his first start off the claim for Trainer Bill Spawr, who wins nearly 30% of the time with such.
RACE 8 - [S]Md Sp Wt $75k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
None of the experienced runners in the field have ever come within nine points of par in their Beyer Speed Figures; so this one could very well be a chaos race.
# 5 Love de Car (ML 5-1) is one of the three first time starters in the field. Love de Car has only been working steady since June; but his sire Decarchy gets 14% winners from his debuting offspring, and Trainer Jeff Mullins clicks at a 20% rate when sending horses to post for the first time. Having Joel Rosario in the saddle certainly adds to the appeal.
# 6 Pulla Train (ML 20-1) and # 8 In Excessiveness (ML 15-1) are the other two first time starters in this field. Both are going for conditioners who have had limited success with debuters; but they have both been working steady leading up to this one, and both come from sires whose offspring win often enough when competing for the first time to warrant some respect.
# 7 Hope ‘n Pray (ML 6-1) just missed against open company his last time out; the class drop in State-bred ranks may be enough to put him over the top.
Again, this one shows all the signs of being a chaos race. The wise move would probably be to hit the “ALL” button for this one; we’ll see.
RACE 9 - [R]Oceanside 100k - The Oceanside Second Division - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 4 Den’s Legacy (ML 7-2) makes his first start on grass since winning the Grade 3 Generous Stakes back in November (note that Den’s Legacy hasn’t won since). The return to turf, the drop in class, the Jockey / Trainer combo of Rosario and Baffert should all combine to guarantee that Den’s Legacy will be heavily over-bet.
# 7 Joelito (ML 5-1) has won two of his last three starts, all on the turf at today’s approximate distance. Joe Talamo, who was on board for both of those victories, will be on Joelito’s back again today.
# 9 Rosengold (ML 9-2) comes into today’s event with a four race winning streak; the last three coming against open stakes company on the grass. Martin Garcia, who rode Rosengold in each of those four victories, gets the mount again today.
RACE 10 Md $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Jimmy the Whip (ML 5-1) grabbed the early lead in his debut his last time out, before fading in the stretch. Trainer Mike Mitchell does quite well with Maidens making their second start (.21 Winning Percentage) as well as with runners coming back after a 31-60 day freshening (.23 Winning Percentage). Joe Talamo, who was on board Jimmy the Whip for the debut, gets the mount again today.
# 6 Big Macher (ML 5-1) makes his debut for Trainer Peter Miller, who clicks 26% of the time with first time starters; a rate that jumps to 29% when considering only debuters in Maiden Claimers. Joel Rosario, should he stick around until the end of the card, is scheduled to get the mount. EDIT - Mixed up my jockeys; Edwin Maldonado gets the ride today on Spring Up.
# 12 Spring Up (ML 5-1) rides in from Arkansas to take on the locals. Spring Up made a big step forward in his last start in April; and conditioner Audrey Cody does quite well with runners returning after a two-to-three month vacation (25% winners) as well as with Maiden Claimers overall (31%).
# 13 Wildcat Candy (ML 7-2) draws in from the Also Eligibles to make his first start for a tag, in addition to his first start as a gelding. Wildcat Candy’s Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance (418) ranks as the best in this field.
Again, the Late Pick Four begins with Race 7; Post Time is 5:17 PDT; 8:17 EDT. I'll try to be back at least a half-hour before that and share with everyone whatever play I'll be making today.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDITED to fix a couple of very silly mistakes.
Sunday, July 14, 2013
7/13/12 BHP Race 2 - Key Race - Update
Key race 7/13/12 BHP Race 2, first noted here August 9, 2012, came back in full exactly one year to the day of its running:
Hyena - WIN - 8/8/12 DMR Race 1
Glad's Gals - 4th - 7/13/13 BHP Race 5
Snackable - WIN - 8/5/12 DMR Race 3
Pursuitofparadise - SHOW - 8/16/12 DMR Race 2
Miss Luna - 8th - 9/12/12 FPX Race 5
Tangled Rock - 7th - 8/5/12 DMR Race 3
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Hyena - WIN - 8/8/12 DMR Race 1
Glad's Gals - 4th - 7/13/13 BHP Race 5
Snackable - WIN - 8/5/12 DMR Race 3
Pursuitofparadise - SHOW - 8/16/12 DMR Race 2
Miss Luna - 8th - 9/12/12 FPX Race 5
Tangled Rock - 7th - 8/5/12 DMR Race 3
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
7/13/13 BHP R3 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Back in June of 2012 I suggested adding Gypsy Friday to the watch list, based upon her performance in this race in which she was twice steadied, but still managed to improve her position in the stretch. Well, Saturday, in Race 3 at BHP, Gypsy Friday made her first start since that one over twelve months ago.
Breaking from Post 7, Gypsy Friday (Final Odds 12.50) moved into the second spot at the top of the stretch and took the Place behind Flatter Thecowgirl (10.70). Gypsy Friday paid $10.00 for Place and $5.80 for Show, while the Flatter Thecowgirl / Gypsy Friday Quinella returned $112.60 for a $2.00 bet.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Breaking from Post 7, Gypsy Friday (Final Odds 12.50) moved into the second spot at the top of the stretch and took the Place behind Flatter Thecowgirl (10.70). Gypsy Friday paid $10.00 for Place and $5.80 for Show, while the Flatter Thecowgirl / Gypsy Friday Quinella returned $112.60 for a $2.00 bet.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
7/13/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Results
It was the final Saturday in the final Spring / Summer Meet at Hollywood Park; and we did our best to make it a memorable one.
Race 7 kicked off the Late Pick Four, and we started our play on the right foot by bringing home one of our A contenders, # 3 Myfundsarelo (Final Odds 3.10), the first time starter for Trainer Craig Dollase. Race 8, the A Gleam Handicap, saw our A selection, # 5 Teddy's Promise (1.30*) take the Place behind our C contender, # 7 Book Review (3.10). So we were still alive, but we had to be perfect in the next race; our one A selection in that one had to Win.
And, thank the Good Lord, she did; as # 3 Emollient (1.20*) took to the grass like we hoped she would, winning Race 9, the American Oaks, by half a length over Place horse # 4 Emotional Kitten (8.00) (I told you those cats were tough on the grass). Finally, the finale; Race 10, which saw the Morning Line 30-1 shot # 8 Citizen Jane (11.60) win for fun, finishing nearly four lengths in front of Place horse # 4 Calameera (2.90*).
Thus we have a Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 7 / 3 / 8 with a payout of $637.75 for a fifty cent wager. Since our investment was $42, we netted a profit of $595.75. May the Good Lord bless us as we spend it.
I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 kicked off the Late Pick Four, and we started our play on the right foot by bringing home one of our A contenders, # 3 Myfundsarelo (Final Odds 3.10), the first time starter for Trainer Craig Dollase. Race 8, the A Gleam Handicap, saw our A selection, # 5 Teddy's Promise (1.30*) take the Place behind our C contender, # 7 Book Review (3.10). So we were still alive, but we had to be perfect in the next race; our one A selection in that one had to Win.
And, thank the Good Lord, she did; as # 3 Emollient (1.20*) took to the grass like we hoped she would, winning Race 9, the American Oaks, by half a length over Place horse # 4 Emotional Kitten (8.00) (I told you those cats were tough on the grass). Finally, the finale; Race 10, which saw the Morning Line 30-1 shot # 8 Citizen Jane (11.60) win for fun, finishing nearly four lengths in front of Place horse # 4 Calameera (2.90*).
Thus we have a Late Pick Four sequence of 3 / 7 / 3 / 8 with a payout of $637.75 for a fifty cent wager. Since our investment was $42, we netted a profit of $595.75. May the Good Lord bless us as we spend it.
I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, July 13, 2013
7/13/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - The Play
All the analysis is in the prior post. Here's how I decided to put it all together:
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 7: 2, 3, 8
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 3
RACE 10: 4, 8, 10, 12
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 1, 6, 9
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 3
RACE 10: 4, 8, 10, 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 7: 2, 3, 8
RACE 8: 7
RACE 9: 3
RACE 10: 4, 8, 10, 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 7: 2, 3, 8
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 1, 4, 5
RACE 10: 4, 8, 10, 12
Cost: $18.00
TOTAL COST: $42.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 7: 2, 3, 8
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 3
RACE 10: 4, 8, 10, 12
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 1, 6, 9
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 3
RACE 10: 4, 8, 10, 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 7: 2, 3, 8
RACE 8: 7
RACE 9: 3
RACE 10: 4, 8, 10, 12
Cost: $6.00
RACE 7: 2, 3, 8
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 1, 4, 5
RACE 10: 4, 8, 10, 12
Cost: $18.00
TOTAL COST: $42.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
7/13/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Preview
Today marks the final Saturday of the final Summer Meet for Hollywood Park. They're offering a pretty good card today, with several stakes on the menu. As per our usual, we'll be taking a look at today's Late Pick Four.
RACE 7 - [S]Md $50k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
I’ve got to say, this is a pretty weak field. Four of the nine entrants are first time starters; generally speaking, you don’t find top notch horses making their debuts in claiming races, as no one wants to chance losing a good horse to another barn without seeing it compete at least once. Of the five in this field that have raced before, only one has ever finished better than fifth. So this is a contest where strong consideration should be given to just hitting the “ALL” button in any Pick Four or Pick Six wagers.
# 2 Starry Shark (Morning Line 5-1) makes his second career start after hopping at the break in his debut. Starry Shark gets an upgrade in rider from an apprentice to Martin Garcia.
# 8 Public Interest (ML 3-1) is, like Starry Shark, a second time starter. Also like Starry Shark, Public Interest experienced some problem with the gate in his debut; specifically, he didn’t want to leave it. Hopefully, Public Interest’s connections have worked out that flaw in his game. Public Interest’s primary appeal is that he possesses the best Distance Tomlinson Rating in this field.
# 3 Myfundsarelo (ML 5-2) makes his debut for Trainer Craig Dollase, whose Winning Percentages in the key angles (.37 for first start; .56 for first start in a Md Clm; .30 overall in Md Clm) would make this horse a must play in the multi-race wagers even if it turned out to actually be an alligator.
# 1 Italian Mirage (ML 12-1) has been working steady and working well for this debut since April.
# 6 Rare Punch (ML 8-1) likewise shows a good workout pattern since April; having Talamo in the saddle adds to the appeal.
# 9 Apache Ambush (ML 3-1) fired a bullet in his workout on the Fourth of July; and his Jockey/Trainer combo of Pedroza and Kruljac work well together (.15 Winning Percentage with an ROI of $3.07)
Again, this race seems to be screaming out for the “ALL” button; but a good case could also be made for a single play on Starry Shark, presuming the improvement normally seen in a horse making their second career start. A decision will have to be made later.
RACE 8 - The A Gleam Handicap (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
# 7 Book Review (ML 4-1) has shown steady improvement (as recorded by her Beyer Speed Figures) in her three previous races since switching coasts and competing for the Baffert barn. Book Review is coming off a five month vacation, but I don’t see that as a cause for concern, as Baffert usually has his horses ready to go after a good long rest (note the .29 Winning Percentage Baffert has when bringing a horse back from a three-to-six month freshening).
# 1 Reneesgotzip (ML 7-2) should be quick early, and that could be key, as this contest doesn’t show a lot of early speed. Reneesgotzip is a perfect three-for-three over the Hollywood main track, along with being a perfect four-for-four over synthetic surfaces. This will be Reneesgotzip’s first start of 2013; but the fact that she won her career debut, and also won last September after a four month layoff, shows that she can fire right off the bench.
# 5 Teddy’s Promise (ML 5-2) experienced a pretty bad trip her last time out in the Desert Stormer Handicap. Even with that trouble she still just missed, meaning that she’s just a little more than a length away from being a perfect five-for-her-last-five heading into this one. Expert Teddy’s Promise to be stalking the pace early, and getting first run at the front runners.
I won’t be using # 2 Byrama (ML 3-1) in the top spot in any of my plays. While I feel Byrama is a very talented filly, I think that her win last time out in the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap at nine furlongs underscores this girl’s desire for more distance; and I don’t believe that Byrama’s connections have done right by her by having her turn back to sprints. I may be proven wrong at the end of the day, but I firmly believe that Byrama is better suited to two turn contests.
Right now it looks like I’ll be using Teddy’s Promise and Book Review as my A contenders, with Reneesgotzip as a C. As far as intra-race exotics, I would bring in Byrama, but not in the top spot. For example, an Exacta play could be:
Exacta Box: 5 / 7
Exacta Box: 1 / 5 / 7
Exacta Part Wheel: 5, 7 / 1, 2, 5, 7
Which, if played for a dollar, would have a total cost of fourteen bucks.
EDIT: Reneesgotzip has been scratched from The A Gleam Handicap (Race 8). Her Trainer, Peter Miller, had hinted Thursday that she might not run today.
So that certainly changes the pace picture of the event. Book Review prefers to come from behind; but now it looks as if there might not be enough pace for her to chase. Teddy’s Promise just might find herself loose on the lead in this one. This will be a decision for later, but I may make Teddy’s Promise my lone A here, and slot Book Review into a C contender slot. We’ll see.
RACE 9 - The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
The final running of The American Oaks at Hollywood Park.
If # 3 Emollient (ML 5-2) brings her A game from the East, this race is no contest. While this is Emollient’s first time trying grass, having Empire Maker as her sire suggests that should be no problem. Note that Emollient is a perfect two-for-two in races not run over a fast dirt track. Also note that, while this is her first start outside the Eastern Time Zone, this will be the third race in a row in which she’ll have Mike Smith on her back.
If Emollient doesn’t bring her A game, then this becomes a wide open race in which anyone can win. # 4 Emotional Kitten (ML 3-1) also invades from the East, having won three of her last four starts. Emotional Kitten is a Kitten’s Joy offspring, and those cats are always tough on the grass. Joel Rosario, who rode Emotional Kitten in her last two victories, opts not to make the trip to California today, which somewhat lessens the appeal.
# 1 Sarach (ML 9-2) and # 5 Scarlet Strike (ML 2-1) ran one-two their last time out in the Grade 2 Hollywood Handicap, with Sarach wiring the field and holding off the late charging Scarlet Strike by a length. The additional distance today would seem to give Scarlet Strike the edge. However, the fact that Scarlet Strike has disappointed as the odds-on favorite in each of her last two races, coupled with the fact that she has taken the Place and Show a total of ten times (with only two career wins) leads one to believe that this filly would rather hang than lead.
I expect to have Emollient as my lone A contender in this one. I’ll probably just use the other three horses mentioned above as C’s, but that’s subject to change; because, again, if Emollient doesn’t bring out her best, any horse in this field is capable of winning.
RACE 10 (F)Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 4 Calameera (Morning Line 5-1) makes her second career start and first as a three year old. Presuming normal growth and maturity, Calameera should improve enough on that 43 Beyer Speed figure she earned last November to post a number close to par today. # 10 Harlan’s Trick (ML 7-2) had the lead in the stretch last time out, only to fade before hitting the wire. As she’ll have a half-panel shorter distance to cover today, perhaps this time she’ll last. # 8 Citizen Jane (ML 30-1) has the best last out Beyer in this field, earned against more expensive stock. If her Post Time odds are even just a third of her Morning Line, it’ll be worth the value to put a couple of bucks on her nose. # 12 Luna’s Light (ML 3-1) draws the far outside post, an ideal position for a filly making her debut. Luna’s Light’s works have been steady, and Trainer Bill Spawr’s Winning Percentages in the key categories are too impressive to ignore.
Right now, I’m looking at Calameera and Harlan’s Trick as “A” contenders in my multi-race plays, with Citizen Jane and Luna’s Light as C’s.
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT. I expect to have my Late Pick Four plays worked out and posted here at least thirty minutes prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - [S]Md $50k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
I’ve got to say, this is a pretty weak field. Four of the nine entrants are first time starters; generally speaking, you don’t find top notch horses making their debuts in claiming races, as no one wants to chance losing a good horse to another barn without seeing it compete at least once. Of the five in this field that have raced before, only one has ever finished better than fifth. So this is a contest where strong consideration should be given to just hitting the “ALL” button in any Pick Four or Pick Six wagers.
# 2 Starry Shark (Morning Line 5-1) makes his second career start after hopping at the break in his debut. Starry Shark gets an upgrade in rider from an apprentice to Martin Garcia.
# 8 Public Interest (ML 3-1) is, like Starry Shark, a second time starter. Also like Starry Shark, Public Interest experienced some problem with the gate in his debut; specifically, he didn’t want to leave it. Hopefully, Public Interest’s connections have worked out that flaw in his game. Public Interest’s primary appeal is that he possesses the best Distance Tomlinson Rating in this field.
# 3 Myfundsarelo (ML 5-2) makes his debut for Trainer Craig Dollase, whose Winning Percentages in the key angles (.37 for first start; .56 for first start in a Md Clm; .30 overall in Md Clm) would make this horse a must play in the multi-race wagers even if it turned out to actually be an alligator.
# 1 Italian Mirage (ML 12-1) has been working steady and working well for this debut since April.
# 6 Rare Punch (ML 8-1) likewise shows a good workout pattern since April; having Talamo in the saddle adds to the appeal.
# 9 Apache Ambush (ML 3-1) fired a bullet in his workout on the Fourth of July; and his Jockey/Trainer combo of Pedroza and Kruljac work well together (.15 Winning Percentage with an ROI of $3.07)
Again, this race seems to be screaming out for the “ALL” button; but a good case could also be made for a single play on Starry Shark, presuming the improvement normally seen in a horse making their second career start. A decision will have to be made later.
RACE 8 - The A Gleam Handicap (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
# 7 Book Review (ML 4-1) has shown steady improvement (as recorded by her Beyer Speed Figures) in her three previous races since switching coasts and competing for the Baffert barn. Book Review is coming off a five month vacation, but I don’t see that as a cause for concern, as Baffert usually has his horses ready to go after a good long rest (note the .29 Winning Percentage Baffert has when bringing a horse back from a three-to-six month freshening).
# 1 Reneesgotzip (ML 7-2) should be quick early, and that could be key, as this contest doesn’t show a lot of early speed. Reneesgotzip is a perfect three-for-three over the Hollywood main track, along with being a perfect four-for-four over synthetic surfaces. This will be Reneesgotzip’s first start of 2013; but the fact that she won her career debut, and also won last September after a four month layoff, shows that she can fire right off the bench.
# 5 Teddy’s Promise (ML 5-2) experienced a pretty bad trip her last time out in the Desert Stormer Handicap. Even with that trouble she still just missed, meaning that she’s just a little more than a length away from being a perfect five-for-her-last-five heading into this one. Expert Teddy’s Promise to be stalking the pace early, and getting first run at the front runners.
I won’t be using # 2 Byrama (ML 3-1) in the top spot in any of my plays. While I feel Byrama is a very talented filly, I think that her win last time out in the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap at nine furlongs underscores this girl’s desire for more distance; and I don’t believe that Byrama’s connections have done right by her by having her turn back to sprints. I may be proven wrong at the end of the day, but I firmly believe that Byrama is better suited to two turn contests.
Right now it looks like I’ll be using Teddy’s Promise and Book Review as my A contenders, with Reneesgotzip as a C. As far as intra-race exotics, I would bring in Byrama, but not in the top spot. For example, an Exacta play could be:
Exacta Box: 5 / 7
Exacta Box: 1 / 5 / 7
Exacta Part Wheel: 5, 7 / 1, 2, 5, 7
Which, if played for a dollar, would have a total cost of fourteen bucks.
EDIT: Reneesgotzip has been scratched from The A Gleam Handicap (Race 8). Her Trainer, Peter Miller, had hinted Thursday that she might not run today.
So that certainly changes the pace picture of the event. Book Review prefers to come from behind; but now it looks as if there might not be enough pace for her to chase. Teddy’s Promise just might find herself loose on the lead in this one. This will be a decision for later, but I may make Teddy’s Promise my lone A here, and slot Book Review into a C contender slot. We’ll see.
RACE 9 - The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
The final running of The American Oaks at Hollywood Park.
If # 3 Emollient (ML 5-2) brings her A game from the East, this race is no contest. While this is Emollient’s first time trying grass, having Empire Maker as her sire suggests that should be no problem. Note that Emollient is a perfect two-for-two in races not run over a fast dirt track. Also note that, while this is her first start outside the Eastern Time Zone, this will be the third race in a row in which she’ll have Mike Smith on her back.
If Emollient doesn’t bring her A game, then this becomes a wide open race in which anyone can win. # 4 Emotional Kitten (ML 3-1) also invades from the East, having won three of her last four starts. Emotional Kitten is a Kitten’s Joy offspring, and those cats are always tough on the grass. Joel Rosario, who rode Emotional Kitten in her last two victories, opts not to make the trip to California today, which somewhat lessens the appeal.
# 1 Sarach (ML 9-2) and # 5 Scarlet Strike (ML 2-1) ran one-two their last time out in the Grade 2 Hollywood Handicap, with Sarach wiring the field and holding off the late charging Scarlet Strike by a length. The additional distance today would seem to give Scarlet Strike the edge. However, the fact that Scarlet Strike has disappointed as the odds-on favorite in each of her last two races, coupled with the fact that she has taken the Place and Show a total of ten times (with only two career wins) leads one to believe that this filly would rather hang than lead.
I expect to have Emollient as my lone A contender in this one. I’ll probably just use the other three horses mentioned above as C’s, but that’s subject to change; because, again, if Emollient doesn’t bring out her best, any horse in this field is capable of winning.
RACE 10 (F)Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 4 Calameera (Morning Line 5-1) makes her second career start and first as a three year old. Presuming normal growth and maturity, Calameera should improve enough on that 43 Beyer Speed figure she earned last November to post a number close to par today. # 10 Harlan’s Trick (ML 7-2) had the lead in the stretch last time out, only to fade before hitting the wire. As she’ll have a half-panel shorter distance to cover today, perhaps this time she’ll last. # 8 Citizen Jane (ML 30-1) has the best last out Beyer in this field, earned against more expensive stock. If her Post Time odds are even just a third of her Morning Line, it’ll be worth the value to put a couple of bucks on her nose. # 12 Luna’s Light (ML 3-1) draws the far outside post, an ideal position for a filly making her debut. Luna’s Light’s works have been steady, and Trainer Bill Spawr’s Winning Percentages in the key categories are too impressive to ignore.
Right now, I’m looking at Calameera and Harlan’s Trick as “A” contenders in my multi-race plays, with Citizen Jane and Luna’s Light as C’s.
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT. I expect to have my Late Pick Four plays worked out and posted here at least thirty minutes prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, July 7, 2013
7/6/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Results
We didn't win big; indeed, we didn't even win even money. But we won; and believe me, winning is much, much better than losing.
Race 7 saw the horse we really liked, # 2 Knucklebuster (Final Odds 3.20) get caught up in an early speed duel, weaken, and finish 9th. But we had covered the eventual winner, # 4 Freedom Forever (9.50), who came from dead last, ten lengths back, to win by a neck; so we were still alive.
# 4 Super Ability (1.20*) held on to win Race 8 by a length; while, to the surprise of virtually no one, # 2 Game On Dude (0.30*) wired the field in Race 9 - The Hollywood Gold Cup. Finally, Race 10 saw # 5 Cosmic Heat (4.30) draw clear in the stretch to win by almost five lengths in the finale.
So we connected on all legs with A selections; and the winning Pick Four sequence of 2 / 4 / 2 / 5 was worth $88.30 for a fifty cent wager. We had invested $47.00, so we didn't quite win even money; but we won more than if we had just put the entire $47.00 on Game On Dude. Besides, as my close personal friend Sully likes to say, no one ever went broke cashing tickets; and, I can assure you, you will never see me turn up my nose at profit at the track. So I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 saw the horse we really liked, # 2 Knucklebuster (Final Odds 3.20) get caught up in an early speed duel, weaken, and finish 9th. But we had covered the eventual winner, # 4 Freedom Forever (9.50), who came from dead last, ten lengths back, to win by a neck; so we were still alive.
# 4 Super Ability (1.20*) held on to win Race 8 by a length; while, to the surprise of virtually no one, # 2 Game On Dude (0.30*) wired the field in Race 9 - The Hollywood Gold Cup. Finally, Race 10 saw # 5 Cosmic Heat (4.30) draw clear in the stretch to win by almost five lengths in the finale.
So we connected on all legs with A selections; and the winning Pick Four sequence of 2 / 4 / 2 / 5 was worth $88.30 for a fifty cent wager. We had invested $47.00, so we didn't quite win even money; but we won more than if we had just put the entire $47.00 on Game On Dude. Besides, as my close personal friend Sully likes to say, no one ever went broke cashing tickets; and, I can assure you, you will never see me turn up my nose at profit at the track. So I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, July 6, 2013
7/6/13 Hollywood Park Late Pick Four - Preview
Moving my attention back to SoCal from New York City, as I decided that the move convenient Post Times and the virtually always the same weather that Southern California offers trumps the more bettor-friendly NYRA tracks. Hopefully, someday soon, the SoCal tracks will lower their breakage, along with their minimum wagers for Doubles and WPS; lest I find myself changing my mind yet again. But anyway, today we're looking at the final four races at Hollywood Park.
RACE 7 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Knucklebuster (Morning Line 7-2) seems to have perked up for new trainer Marty Jones, breaking his maiden in his initial try last time out for the new barn.
# 4 Forever Freedom (ML 5-1) comes back against easier competition after a twelve month vacation for connections that click 18% of the time (with a positive ROI) with entrants returning from a long rest.
# 9 Prime Number (ML 5-1) has been knocking at the door at this level in each of his three starts this year; expect him to be in the mix at the wire.
RACE 8 - Alw $50k N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Swift Eagle (ML 5-2) lost the photo in two of his last three races, with Beyers that should get the job done today.
# 4 Super Ability (ML 2-1) was victorious two back against state bred stakes company, giving him two Wins and two Places in his four races so far in 2013. Super Ability's five career starts have been two sprints; followed by a win going eight furlongs on grass; followed by two sprints; a pattern with which trainer Carla Gaines seems to do rather well.
# 8 American Tanker (ML 6-1) makes his first start of the year today, having broken his maiden his last time out in his first turf route. American Tanker has a late running style that may do well today against this field filled with rabbits.
RACE 9 - The Hollywood Gold Cup (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Synthetic
Can’t see any way to play against # 2 Game On Dude (ML 4-5) in the 74th and final running of the Hollywood Gold Cup. # 1 Clubhouse Ride (ML 2-1) is Game On Dude’s closest competitor in this field, having finished just a half length behind The Dude in The Charles Town Classic before winning The Californian Stakes last time out. But Clubhouse Ride prefers to come from behind, so he’ll need some pace to run at; and I don’t see anyone in this field who can challenge The Dude in the early going on the front end.
Grade 1 races are won by Grade 1 horses; and there’s no denying Game On Dude’s credentials as a Grade 1 champion.
RACE 10 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Dramatic Allan (ML 4-1) took the Place at this level last time out. He may prove to be the speed of the speed in this one.
# 5 Cosmic Heat (ML 9-2) drops in class while making his first start for conditioner Jeff Mullins, who wins 23% of the time his first time with a runner.
# 14 Super Dice (ML 7-2) goes for a cheaper tag but switches from state-bred to open company; may be a drop, may be a wash; but, either way, his Beyers say that he belongs.
# 16 Eddie Better (ML 15-1) deserves a mulligan for his last start, his first try back after being away for a year. Eddie Better will get some class relief today, and his Dst Tomlinson Rating shows that today's six furlongs is right in his wheelhouse. The presence of Eddie Maldonado in the saddle adds to the appeal.
I've spread a little wider than I generally prefer in my play today; but I feel justified in doing so as I reacquaint myself with the SoCal thoroughbred scene. So with that, here are the late Pick Four tickets that I'll be putting in today:
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 1, 4
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 2
Cost: $2.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 2, 4, 9
RACE 8: 1, 4
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 2, 5, 14, 16
Cost: $12.00
RACE 7: 1, 3, 12
RACE 8: 1, 4
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 2, 5, 14, 16
Cost: $12.00
RACE 7: 2, 4, 9
RACE 8: 2, 8
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 2, 5, 14, 16
Cost: $12.00
RACE 7: 2, 4, 9
RACE 8: 1, 4
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 4, 10, 11
Cost: $9.00
TOTAL COST: $47.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:06 EDT / 4:06 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Knucklebuster (Morning Line 7-2) seems to have perked up for new trainer Marty Jones, breaking his maiden in his initial try last time out for the new barn.
# 4 Forever Freedom (ML 5-1) comes back against easier competition after a twelve month vacation for connections that click 18% of the time (with a positive ROI) with entrants returning from a long rest.
# 9 Prime Number (ML 5-1) has been knocking at the door at this level in each of his three starts this year; expect him to be in the mix at the wire.
RACE 8 - Alw $50k N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Swift Eagle (ML 5-2) lost the photo in two of his last three races, with Beyers that should get the job done today.
# 4 Super Ability (ML 2-1) was victorious two back against state bred stakes company, giving him two Wins and two Places in his four races so far in 2013. Super Ability's five career starts have been two sprints; followed by a win going eight furlongs on grass; followed by two sprints; a pattern with which trainer Carla Gaines seems to do rather well.
# 8 American Tanker (ML 6-1) makes his first start of the year today, having broken his maiden his last time out in his first turf route. American Tanker has a late running style that may do well today against this field filled with rabbits.
RACE 9 - The Hollywood Gold Cup (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Synthetic
Can’t see any way to play against # 2 Game On Dude (ML 4-5) in the 74th and final running of the Hollywood Gold Cup. # 1 Clubhouse Ride (ML 2-1) is Game On Dude’s closest competitor in this field, having finished just a half length behind The Dude in The Charles Town Classic before winning The Californian Stakes last time out. But Clubhouse Ride prefers to come from behind, so he’ll need some pace to run at; and I don’t see anyone in this field who can challenge The Dude in the early going on the front end.
Grade 1 races are won by Grade 1 horses; and there’s no denying Game On Dude’s credentials as a Grade 1 champion.
RACE 10 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Dramatic Allan (ML 4-1) took the Place at this level last time out. He may prove to be the speed of the speed in this one.
# 5 Cosmic Heat (ML 9-2) drops in class while making his first start for conditioner Jeff Mullins, who wins 23% of the time his first time with a runner.
# 14 Super Dice (ML 7-2) goes for a cheaper tag but switches from state-bred to open company; may be a drop, may be a wash; but, either way, his Beyers say that he belongs.
# 16 Eddie Better (ML 15-1) deserves a mulligan for his last start, his first try back after being away for a year. Eddie Better will get some class relief today, and his Dst Tomlinson Rating shows that today's six furlongs is right in his wheelhouse. The presence of Eddie Maldonado in the saddle adds to the appeal.
I've spread a little wider than I generally prefer in my play today; but I feel justified in doing so as I reacquaint myself with the SoCal thoroughbred scene. So with that, here are the late Pick Four tickets that I'll be putting in today:
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 7: 2
RACE 8: 1, 4
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 2
Cost: $2.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 2, 4, 9
RACE 8: 1, 4
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 2, 5, 14, 16
Cost: $12.00
RACE 7: 1, 3, 12
RACE 8: 1, 4
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 2, 5, 14, 16
Cost: $12.00
RACE 7: 2, 4, 9
RACE 8: 2, 8
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 2, 5, 14, 16
Cost: $12.00
RACE 7: 2, 4, 9
RACE 8: 1, 4
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 4, 10, 11
Cost: $9.00
TOTAL COST: $47.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:06 EDT / 4:06 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, July 4, 2013
7/4/13 BHP R2 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Paralyzing Eyes, the Bruce Jackson filly that we've been following, made her ninth career start Thursday, in Race 2 at Hollywood Park. The event was for $20k Maiden Claimers, marking the fifth race in which Paralyzing Eyes has competed for that price tag. The distance was eight and a half furlongs, run over the main plastic track.
Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 33.20) broke well, and was in second, just a length behind the leader, at the six furlong mark. But she soon ran out of gas, finishing last, over a dozen lengths behind the winner, Bas (2.30).
So we'll see if Jackson continues to hold Paralyzing Eyes at the $20k level, or if he drops her down in class the next time she enters the starting gate.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 33.20) broke well, and was in second, just a length behind the leader, at the six furlong mark. But she soon ran out of gas, finishing last, over a dozen lengths behind the winner, Bas (2.30).
So we'll see if Jackson continues to hold Paralyzing Eyes at the $20k level, or if he drops her down in class the next time she enters the starting gate.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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