Saturday's Late Pick Four at Del Mar looks like a tough one to crack, as all four races appear to be extremely competitive. I'll post my thoughts on the fields here; and then later let you all know how (and if) I plan on playing my tickets.
RACE 7 - Alw N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 2 Tom’s Tribute (Morning Line 5-2) has the most impressive Beyer Speed Figures in the field; and, being lightly raced, also fits the profile of a contender in a first level allowance race. But Tom’s Tribute will be trying at least two new things today:
1) This will be his first race around two turns;
2) This will be his first race on some California grass
Factor in that Trainer James Cassidy does not do well with entrants making their first turf start (one win in his last twenty-two tries), and it’s fair to say that Tom’s Tribute to be disproportionately overbet in the Win Pool relative to his actual chances of winning.
# 5 Somethings Unusual (ML 5-1) has a late running style that may give him an edge today, as this field contains a lot of early speed. Somethings Unusual has earned (for the most part) steadily increasing Beyers over his career, competing almost exclusively against State-bred company. So today will be a step up the class ladder for Somethings Unusual; but if he can once again just slightly improve on his prior effort, he just might get his picture taken when this one is over.
# 7 Swift Eagle (ML 7-2) has taken the Place and Show his last two times out, both at this class level. He is also one of just two horses in this field with a win over the Jimmy Durante Turf Course. Swift Eagle’s Beyers show a steady up-and-down pattern over his ten race form, with today scheduled to be an up day. If Swift Eagle can keep from getting burned out on the front end today, he should be in the mix at the wire.
# 9 My Samuri Warrior (ML 12-1) is stretching out after competing in four straight turf sprints. Trainer Victor Garcia does quite well with that move; but Garcia has not been very successful in Allowance Races.
Worth noting: Chantal Sutherland-Kruse, riding # 3 Sumerian (ML 15-1) is listed as having only two starts in 2013. Apparently, those who keep these records officially are unaware that Jockey Chantal Sutherland-Kruse and Jockey Chantal Sutherland are, in fact, the same person.
I’m giving strong consideration to rolling the dice and going with # 5 Somethings Unusual as my lone “A” contender; put, as you see, there are several here that are worthy of consideration.
RACE 8 - The A San Diego Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 3 Paynter (ML 9-5) continues his miraculous comeback from his life-threatening battles last Fall with laminitis and colitis. However, as well regarded as Paynter is, and as much of a feel-good story each of his victories from here on out will be, this one is by no means a walk-over for the four year old colt.
# 1 Kettle Corn (ML 7-2) was scratched out of last night’s running of the Grade 3 Cougar II Handicap in order to compete in this one. His last time out, Kettle Corn took the Place behind Game On Dude in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup. With more pace to chase in this one, and without The Dude in the field, Kettle Corn looms as a very strong contender.
Speaking of Game On Dude, # 6 Clubhouse Ride (ML 4-1) has faced The Dude in four of his last five outings, taking the Place behind The Dude in three of those events. Look for Clubhouse Ride to be alongside Kettle Corn while making a late run for the wire.
# 4 Liaison (ML 3-1) is the always dangerous “other Baffert” in this one; that is, the Bob Baffert horse that is not the heavy favorite. Liaison took the Place behind Clubhouse Ride in the Grade 2 Californian his last time out, and finished more than a length in front of Kettle Corn in the process of winning the Grade 2 Mervyn LeRoy Handicap two races back.
If the pace unfolds as it looks on form, Paynter will be battling # 2 Batti Man (Arg) (ML 15-1) and # 5 Chief Havoc (ML 5-1) on the front end in the early going. Liaison should get first run at those three, with Kettle Corn and Clubhouse Ride charging from the rear. I’m currently leaning towards Clubhouse Ride; but this one looks to be very competitive, and could come down to which horse gets the best trip.
RACE 9 - Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 1 South Floyd (ML 9-2), # 3 Life a Riley (ML 12-1) and # 9 Seven Bridges (ML 7-2) are the three in this field racing for the first time with a price tag on their heads. Seven Bridges possesses the best Beyers in the field over the Del Mar main track, along with the best overall Beyers in the field. South Floyd draws the rail and just may steal this one on the front end. Life a Riley and # 8 Corse Di Cavalli (ML 6-1) are the only two in this group with Wins over the Del Mar main track; not so coincidentally, those two are also both trained by John Sadler.
# 7 Salah Champ (ML 8-1) makes his first start since breaking his maiden last December. Salah Champ’s trainer, Mike Mitchell, has a .24 Winning Percentage with horses coming back from a vacation of more than six months.
# 10 Lovemeister (ML 10-1) finished in the money in each of his last two races, both at this class level; while # 6 Judge Carr (ML 6-1) took the Show and the Place two and three races back against more difficult Starter Allowance company.
Another competitive field. Currently leaning towards Seven Bridges.
RACE 10 (F)MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 6 Winning Rhythm (ML 5-2) has posted Beyers of 76 and 71 her last two outings, both in turf routes against this level of competition, while finishing in the money in each of those events. She was ridden by Mike Smith in each of her prior career starts; but as Smith is busy in New York today, Rafael Bejarano will get the ride.
# 8 Twisted Purpose (ML 20-1) has, like Winning Rhythm, earned steadily improving Beyers in each of her career turf routes.
# 7 Iconic Spirit (ML 7-2) is showing the signs of being a perennial bridesmaid, constantly finishing in the money at this level without ever crossing the wire first.
# 9 Tappingintherain (ML 4-1) has the best last out Beyer in the field in a contest in which she just missed winning by a head. But that event was on a different surface and around just one turn; something to keep in mind, even though her breeding suggests that she should handle both the turf and the distance with little problem.
# 2 Hollywood Heroine (ML 12-1) and # 4 Renegade Ride (ML 12-1) are both first time starters, both trained by Tim Yakteen, who wins at a 17% clip with debut runners. Both Hollywood Heroine and Renegade Ridge have been training well for over two months. It’ll be interesting to see which of the two draws more of the early wagering.
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. I expect to be back at last twenty minutes prior to that with how (and if) I'll be playing this extremely challenging Late Pick Four.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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