Today marks the final Saturday of the final Summer Meet for Hollywood Park. They're offering a pretty good card today, with several stakes on the menu. As per our usual, we'll be taking a look at today's Late Pick Four.
RACE 7 - [S]Md $50k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
I’ve got to say, this is a pretty weak field. Four of the nine entrants are first time starters; generally speaking, you don’t find top notch horses making their debuts in claiming races, as no one wants to chance losing a good horse to another barn without seeing it compete at least once. Of the five in this field that have raced before, only one has ever finished better than fifth. So this is a contest where strong consideration should be given to just hitting the “ALL” button in any Pick Four or Pick Six wagers.
# 2 Starry Shark (Morning Line 5-1) makes his second career start after hopping at the break in his debut. Starry Shark gets an upgrade in rider from an apprentice to Martin Garcia.
# 8 Public Interest (ML 3-1) is, like Starry Shark, a second time starter. Also like Starry Shark, Public Interest experienced some problem with the gate in his debut; specifically, he didn’t want to leave it. Hopefully, Public Interest’s connections have worked out that flaw in his game. Public Interest’s primary appeal is that he possesses the best Distance Tomlinson Rating in this field.
# 3 Myfundsarelo (ML 5-2) makes his debut for Trainer Craig Dollase, whose Winning Percentages in the key angles (.37 for first start; .56 for first start in a Md Clm; .30 overall in Md Clm) would make this horse a must play in the multi-race wagers even if it turned out to actually be an alligator.
# 1 Italian Mirage (ML 12-1) has been working steady and working well for this debut since April.
# 6 Rare Punch (ML 8-1) likewise shows a good workout pattern since April; having Talamo in the saddle adds to the appeal.
# 9 Apache Ambush (ML 3-1) fired a bullet in his workout on the Fourth of July; and his Jockey/Trainer combo of Pedroza and Kruljac work well together (.15 Winning Percentage with an ROI of $3.07)
Again, this race seems to be screaming out for the “ALL” button; but a good case could also be made for a single play on Starry Shark, presuming the improvement normally seen in a horse making their second career start. A decision will have to be made later.
RACE 8 - The A Gleam Handicap (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
# 7 Book Review (ML 4-1) has shown steady improvement (as recorded by her Beyer Speed Figures) in her three previous races since switching coasts and competing for the Baffert barn. Book Review is coming off a five month vacation, but I don’t see that as a cause for concern, as Baffert usually has his horses ready to go after a good long rest (note the .29 Winning Percentage Baffert has when bringing a horse back from a three-to-six month freshening).
# 1 Reneesgotzip (ML 7-2) should be quick early, and that could be key, as this contest doesn’t show a lot of early speed. Reneesgotzip is a perfect three-for-three over the Hollywood main track, along with being a perfect four-for-four over synthetic surfaces. This will be Reneesgotzip’s first start of 2013; but the fact that she won her career debut, and also won last September after a four month layoff, shows that she can fire right off the bench.
# 5 Teddy’s Promise (ML 5-2) experienced a pretty bad trip her last time out in the Desert Stormer Handicap. Even with that trouble she still just missed, meaning that she’s just a little more than a length away from being a perfect five-for-her-last-five heading into this one. Expert Teddy’s Promise to be stalking the pace early, and getting first run at the front runners.
I won’t be using # 2 Byrama (ML 3-1) in the top spot in any of my plays. While I feel Byrama is a very talented filly, I think that her win last time out in the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap at nine furlongs underscores this girl’s desire for more distance; and I don’t believe that Byrama’s connections have done right by her by having her turn back to sprints. I may be proven wrong at the end of the day, but I firmly believe that Byrama is better suited to two turn contests.
Right now it looks like I’ll be using Teddy’s Promise and Book Review as my A contenders, with Reneesgotzip as a C. As far as intra-race exotics, I would bring in Byrama, but not in the top spot. For example, an Exacta play could be:
Exacta Box: 5 / 7
Exacta Box: 1 / 5 / 7
Exacta Part Wheel: 5, 7 / 1, 2, 5, 7
Which, if played for a dollar, would have a total cost of fourteen bucks.
EDIT: Reneesgotzip has been scratched from The A Gleam Handicap (Race 8). Her Trainer, Peter Miller, had hinted Thursday that she might not run today.
So that certainly changes the pace picture of the event. Book Review prefers to come from behind; but now it looks as if there might not be enough pace for her to chase. Teddy’s Promise just might find herself loose on the lead in this one. This will be a decision for later, but I may make Teddy’s Promise my lone A here, and slot Book Review into a C contender slot. We’ll see.
RACE 9 - The American Oaks (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
The final running of The American Oaks at Hollywood Park.
If # 3 Emollient (ML 5-2) brings her A game from the East, this race is no contest. While this is Emollient’s first time trying grass, having Empire Maker as her sire suggests that should be no problem. Note that Emollient is a perfect two-for-two in races not run over a fast dirt track. Also note that, while this is her first start outside the Eastern Time Zone, this will be the third race in a row in which she’ll have Mike Smith on her back.
If Emollient doesn’t bring her A game, then this becomes a wide open race in which anyone can win. # 4 Emotional Kitten (ML 3-1) also invades from the East, having won three of her last four starts. Emotional Kitten is a Kitten’s Joy offspring, and those cats are always tough on the grass. Joel Rosario, who rode Emotional Kitten in her last two victories, opts not to make the trip to California today, which somewhat lessens the appeal.
# 1 Sarach (ML 9-2) and # 5 Scarlet Strike (ML 2-1) ran one-two their last time out in the Grade 2 Hollywood Handicap, with Sarach wiring the field and holding off the late charging Scarlet Strike by a length. The additional distance today would seem to give Scarlet Strike the edge. However, the fact that Scarlet Strike has disappointed as the odds-on favorite in each of her last two races, coupled with the fact that she has taken the Place and Show a total of ten times (with only two career wins) leads one to believe that this filly would rather hang than lead.
I expect to have Emollient as my lone A contender in this one. I’ll probably just use the other three horses mentioned above as C’s, but that’s subject to change; because, again, if Emollient doesn’t bring out her best, any horse in this field is capable of winning.
RACE 10 (F)Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 4 Calameera (Morning Line 5-1) makes her second career start and first as a three year old. Presuming normal growth and maturity, Calameera should improve enough on that 43 Beyer Speed figure she earned last November to post a number close to par today. # 10 Harlan’s Trick (ML 7-2) had the lead in the stretch last time out, only to fade before hitting the wire. As she’ll have a half-panel shorter distance to cover today, perhaps this time she’ll last. # 8 Citizen Jane (ML 30-1) has the best last out Beyer in this field, earned against more expensive stock. If her Post Time odds are even just a third of her Morning Line, it’ll be worth the value to put a couple of bucks on her nose. # 12 Luna’s Light (ML 3-1) draws the far outside post, an ideal position for a filly making her debut. Luna’s Light’s works have been steady, and Trainer Bill Spawr’s Winning Percentages in the key categories are too impressive to ignore.
Right now, I’m looking at Calameera and Harlan’s Trick as “A” contenders in my multi-race plays, with Citizen Jane and Luna’s Light as C’s.
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT. I expect to have my Late Pick Four plays worked out and posted here at least thirty minutes prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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