Below is a look at today's Late Pick Four plus one; as we'll also comment on Race 6, since it is the co-feature race on the card (being one of the two divisions of The Oceanside Stakes).
RACE 6 - [R]Oceanside 100k - The Oceanside First Division - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 2 Gervinho (Morning Line 4-1) shows the steady improvement you like in see in a young horse’s Beyer Speed Figures, while also sporting a stakes win in open company.
# 5 Undrafted (ML 5-2) is a perfect three-for-three in non-stakes races, while being oh-for-six against stakes competition. In fairness to Undrafted, none of those six losses were on the grass; but that record does advise caution against taking too short a price on a horse that may have class issues.
# 6 Freakin Rocket (ML 7-2) is a perfect two-for-two for his career; both wins coming in sprints on Hollywood’s cushion track. So this will be first time routing and first time turfing for Freakin Rocket; normally a huge red flag, but his breeding suggests that Freakin Rocket is better suited to both those conditions than he is to those he encountered in his two wins.
Again, this race isn’t part of the Late Pick Four; so any play I might make will depend on what the odds look like as they get close to post. But using the Morning Line as a gauge, I would prefer Gervinho over Freakin Rocket over Undrafted.
RACE 7 - Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Sir Allison (ML 4-1) just missed his last time out at this level, the cheapest price tag for which he had ever competed. Sir Allison’s form shows that he was competitive in his career against more expensive, so the problem here may be one of desire more than ability.
# 4 Diamond of Blue (ML 6-1) took the Place at this level two back, in the race in which he was claimed by Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer away from Trainer Ron Ellis. Diamond of Blue demonstrated the ability to rate as a three year old, but seems to have developed into a “need to lead” type this year. Because of that, Diamond of Blue is winless since March 2012; and unless he suddenly relearns how to rate, he’s going to find any attempt to wire this field a tough row to hoe.
# 6 Royal Meridian (ML 3-1) makes his first start against straight claimers since breaking his maiden for $40k last June. Royal Meridian is a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar main track, and the Beyers he has earned in his last three races (87, 87, 88) are all above par for this level.
# 8 Legal Separation (ML 4-1) won two back against more expensive while sprinting on the Santa Anita grass; that was also the race in which he was claimed by Trainer John Sadler. Sadler tried Legal Separation against more expensive last time out ($40k OC) and, after that one race, has decided to cut his losses, offering Legal Separation for sale for twelve grand less than what he paid to acquire him back in April. His Beyers look weak for this bunch; but the class drop and the addition of Rosario in the saddle could be enough for Legal Separation to get his picture taken when this race is over.
EDIT: Forgot to include # 1 Magic Beam (ML 7-2) who just missed at this level last time out and is making his first start off the claim for Trainer Bill Spawr, who wins nearly 30% of the time with such.
RACE 8 - [S]Md Sp Wt $75k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
None of the experienced runners in the field have ever come within nine points of par in their Beyer Speed Figures; so this one could very well be a chaos race.
# 5 Love de Car (ML 5-1) is one of the three first time starters in the field. Love de Car has only been working steady since June; but his sire Decarchy gets 14% winners from his debuting offspring, and Trainer Jeff Mullins clicks at a 20% rate when sending horses to post for the first time. Having Joel Rosario in the saddle certainly adds to the appeal.
# 6 Pulla Train (ML 20-1) and # 8 In Excessiveness (ML 15-1) are the other two first time starters in this field. Both are going for conditioners who have had limited success with debuters; but they have both been working steady leading up to this one, and both come from sires whose offspring win often enough when competing for the first time to warrant some respect.
# 7 Hope ‘n Pray (ML 6-1) just missed against open company his last time out; the class drop in State-bred ranks may be enough to put him over the top.
Again, this one shows all the signs of being a chaos race. The wise move would probably be to hit the “ALL” button for this one; we’ll see.
RACE 9 - [R]Oceanside 100k - The Oceanside Second Division - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 4 Den’s Legacy (ML 7-2) makes his first start on grass since winning the Grade 3 Generous Stakes back in November (note that Den’s Legacy hasn’t won since). The return to turf, the drop in class, the Jockey / Trainer combo of Rosario and Baffert should all combine to guarantee that Den’s Legacy will be heavily over-bet.
# 7 Joelito (ML 5-1) has won two of his last three starts, all on the turf at today’s approximate distance. Joe Talamo, who was on board for both of those victories, will be on Joelito’s back again today.
# 9 Rosengold (ML 9-2) comes into today’s event with a four race winning streak; the last three coming against open stakes company on the grass. Martin Garcia, who rode Rosengold in each of those four victories, gets the mount again today.
RACE 10 Md $20k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Jimmy the Whip (ML 5-1) grabbed the early lead in his debut his last time out, before fading in the stretch. Trainer Mike Mitchell does quite well with Maidens making their second start (.21 Winning Percentage) as well as with runners coming back after a 31-60 day freshening (.23 Winning Percentage). Joe Talamo, who was on board Jimmy the Whip for the debut, gets the mount again today.
# 6 Big Macher (ML 5-1) makes his debut for Trainer Peter Miller, who clicks 26% of the time with first time starters; a rate that jumps to 29% when considering only debuters in Maiden Claimers. Joel Rosario, should he stick around until the end of the card, is scheduled to get the mount. EDIT - Mixed up my jockeys; Edwin Maldonado gets the ride today on Spring Up.
# 12 Spring Up (ML 5-1) rides in from Arkansas to take on the locals. Spring Up made a big step forward in his last start in April; and conditioner Audrey Cody does quite well with runners returning after a two-to-three month vacation (25% winners) as well as with Maiden Claimers overall (31%).
# 13 Wildcat Candy (ML 7-2) draws in from the Also Eligibles to make his first start for a tag, in addition to his first start as a gelding. Wildcat Candy’s Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance (418) ranks as the best in this field.
Again, the Late Pick Four begins with Race 7; Post Time is 5:17 PDT; 8:17 EDT. I'll try to be back at least a half-hour before that and share with everyone whatever play I'll be making today.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDITED to fix a couple of very silly mistakes.
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