Yesterday's card at Gulfstream Park proved to be quite a hit with the betting public. Quoting from The Handicapper's Edge at Brisnet.com:
Gulfstream Park's 12-race program Saturday afternoon, featuring the $400,000 Fountain of Youth (G2), $200,000 Davona Dale (G2) and $150,000 Canadian Turf (G3), handled a total of $20.7 million. It was the first time Gulfstream had handled more than $20 million in its state-of-the-art building on a non-Florida Derby Day. The last time Gulfstream handled more than $20 million on a non-Florida Derby card was in 2003 in the old building.
"We're ecstatic with the public's reception to today's Fountain of Youth program," Gulfstream President Tim Ritvo said. "The horsemen and jockeys once again supported us by putting on an incredible show, and our guests came out and watched a tremendous day of racing. Obviously, we can't do it without the horsemen and our fans. A day like this is what our chairman, Frank Stronach, has always envisioned. It has been his goal to promote Thoroughbred racing, Florida Thoroughbred racing, and the excitement of this sport and the many entertainment options at Gulfstream Park."
For comparison’s sake, the previous Saturday card at Gulfstream Park (2/15/14), which featured the Grade 2 Mac Diarmida Stakes and the Grade 3 The Very One Stakes, had a handle of $16,192,707; while last year's (2013) Fountain of Youth card at Gulfstream had a total handle of $16,637.417.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, February 23, 2014
Saturday, February 22, 2014
2/22/14 Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six - Results
"It is better to offer no excuse than a bad one." - George Washington
Race 7 - # 11 Kaigun (Final Odds 3.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 12 Smooth Daddy (16.90) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Davona Dale - # 3 Onlyforyou (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Canadian Turf - # 5 Reload (4.80) - No Selection
Race 11 - The Fountain of Youth - # 4 Wildcat Red (4.50) - No Selection
Race 12 - # 13 Strategic Keeper (39.20) - No Selection
Needless to say, not one of our better plays. In the four races where we did not have the Winner, we also did not have the Place horse. And while Reload and Wildcat Red certainly figured, the only way I would have had Smooth Daddy or Strategic Keeper (or, for that matter, the DQ'd Winner of the finale, # 12 Collinito (15.60)) would have been if I punched the "ALL" button for those legs.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow 6 sequence of 11 / 12 / 3 / 5 / 4 / 13 were rewarded with a $36,659.22 payout for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings. As there were multiple winners, there will be a carryover of $1,353,210 going into tomorrow's Rainbow 6 pool at Gulfstream Park.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 11 Kaigun (Final Odds 3.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 12 Smooth Daddy (16.90) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Davona Dale - # 3 Onlyforyou (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The Canadian Turf - # 5 Reload (4.80) - No Selection
Race 11 - The Fountain of Youth - # 4 Wildcat Red (4.50) - No Selection
Race 12 - # 13 Strategic Keeper (39.20) - No Selection
Needless to say, not one of our better plays. In the four races where we did not have the Winner, we also did not have the Place horse. And while Reload and Wildcat Red certainly figured, the only way I would have had Smooth Daddy or Strategic Keeper (or, for that matter, the DQ'd Winner of the finale, # 12 Collinito (15.60)) would have been if I punched the "ALL" button for those legs.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow 6 sequence of 11 / 12 / 3 / 5 / 4 / 13 were rewarded with a $36,659.22 payout for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings. As there were multiple winners, there will be a carryover of $1,353,210 going into tomorrow's Rainbow 6 pool at Gulfstream Park.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/22/14 Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six - Preview
"We should not look back unless it is to derive useful lessons from past errors, and for the purpose of profiting by dearly bought experience." - George Washington
Hope you're having a happy (what used to be) George Washington's Birthday. The Rainbow Six Pool at Gulfstream Park is over $1.2 million; and, with a Saturday sequence that features three Graded Stakes, I would expect to see another half million bet into that today. Therefore we turn our sights to the East and make a run at today's Rainbow Six at Gulfstream Park.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Calm Pacific (Morning Line 3-1)
# 11 Kaigun (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Calm Pacific took the Place at this level at this distance over this turf course last time out. Calm Pacific has finished in the Trifecta in all four of his career starts, all of which have been on grass. Calm Pacific is trained by Chad Brown and will be ridden by Javier Castellano; note that the Castellano/Brown duo have won approximately 30% of their joint ventures over the past couple of years, in a sample size of well over two hundred races.
Kaigun's efforts two and three starts back, if repeated today, may be enough to get him into the Winner's Circle. Kaigun has finished in the Trifecta in each of his three career turf starts. I'm not sure why Kaigun's connections opted to run him on dirt the last time out; note that race was carded for dirt, so it wasn't one that was moved off the grass.
RACE 8 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Sportscaster (ML 8-1)
# 7 Dylan Ward (ML 3-1)
# 9 Loves Last Chance (ML 4-1)
# 10 Stroll to Victory (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
Dylan Ward, Loves Last Chance, and Sportscaster were all within a length of each other their last time out. finishing Second, Third, and Fourth (respectively) at this level over this turf course at today's distance. Stroll to Victory makes his three year old debut after taking the Place in his two prior career starts, both at Saratoga. Note that Stroll to Victory will be getting Lasix for the first time. This will be also be Stroll to Victory's first race without having to compete against Bobby's Kitten.
RACE 9 - (F) The Davona Dale (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Onlyforyou (ML 2-1)
# 8 Stopchargingmaria (ML 9-5)
C’s
None
Onlyforyou and Stopchargingmaria form the uncoupled entry for Trainer Todd Pletcher. They are the only two runners in today's field with Graded Stakes wins on their resumes; as Onlyforyou (who is three-for-three lifetime) crossed the wire first in the Grade 2 Forward Gal Stakes, while Stopchargingmaria got her picture taken after both the Grade 3 Tempted Stakes and the Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes. However, there are question marks here, as this will be the first time Onlyforyou will be going around two turns; while Stopchargingmaria, in addition to the wide post, will be trying the Gulfstream Park main track for the first time (note that her works have been over at Palm Meadows). Yet despite the concerns, these two seem to be clearly above the rest of the field. We'll see if that's still the case later this afternoon.
RACE 10 - The Canadian Turf (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Unbridled Ocean (ML 10-1)
# 9 Bad Debt (ML 6-1)
# 11 Guys Reward (ML 12-1)
C’s
None
There looks to be a lot of front running types in this one, including most who are short odds on the Morning Line. So my focus here will be on those that I figure to be coming late (but hopefully not too late).
Unbridled Ocean, trained by Bill Mott and ridden by John Velazquez, has won both career tries over this turf course, both races which were run at today's distance. Bad Debt has done little wrong of late, and with a little more luck would be four of his last five. Joel Rosario will be on board today. Guys Reward won the Grade 3 Tampa Bay his last time out (at odds of nearly 15-1) showing the type of late kick that could get the job done today.
RACE 11 - The Fountain of Youth (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Commissioner (ML 3-1)
# 12 Top Billing (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
Commissioner, trained by Todd Pletcher, has won both of his starts since his debut, albeit be a combined margin of less than a length. Johnny V will be in the saddle today.
Top Billing, trained by Shug McGaughey, certainly has pedigree on his side, being sired by Curlin out of an A. P. Indy mare. Top Billing just misses by a neck of being a perfect three for three for his career. Joel Rosario, who was on board for Top Billing's last two events, gets the mount again today.
RACE 12 - Md $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Ringold (ML 4-1)
# 8 Dolan's Joy (ML 10-1)
# 9 Ghost to Ghost (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
Ringold took the Place at this level over this course at today's distance last time out. Dolan's Joy, sired by Kitten's Joy out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare, should show improvement over his debut, especially with the added distance. Ghost to Ghost has been in the Exacta in his two tries at this level.
OK; that's the analysis. We're playing it caveman style today, going with just "A's" and putting everyone on a single ticket; which looks like this:
All A Entries
$0.20 P6: 5,11 with 3,7,9,10 with 3,8 with 2,9,11 with 1,12 with 2,8,9 $57.60
Total: $57.60
Post Time for Race 7 is 3:31 EST / 12:31 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Hope you're having a happy (what used to be) George Washington's Birthday. The Rainbow Six Pool at Gulfstream Park is over $1.2 million; and, with a Saturday sequence that features three Graded Stakes, I would expect to see another half million bet into that today. Therefore we turn our sights to the East and make a run at today's Rainbow Six at Gulfstream Park.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Calm Pacific (Morning Line 3-1)
# 11 Kaigun (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Calm Pacific took the Place at this level at this distance over this turf course last time out. Calm Pacific has finished in the Trifecta in all four of his career starts, all of which have been on grass. Calm Pacific is trained by Chad Brown and will be ridden by Javier Castellano; note that the Castellano/Brown duo have won approximately 30% of their joint ventures over the past couple of years, in a sample size of well over two hundred races.
Kaigun's efforts two and three starts back, if repeated today, may be enough to get him into the Winner's Circle. Kaigun has finished in the Trifecta in each of his three career turf starts. I'm not sure why Kaigun's connections opted to run him on dirt the last time out; note that race was carded for dirt, so it wasn't one that was moved off the grass.
RACE 8 - MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Sportscaster (ML 8-1)
# 7 Dylan Ward (ML 3-1)
# 9 Loves Last Chance (ML 4-1)
# 10 Stroll to Victory (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
Dylan Ward, Loves Last Chance, and Sportscaster were all within a length of each other their last time out. finishing Second, Third, and Fourth (respectively) at this level over this turf course at today's distance. Stroll to Victory makes his three year old debut after taking the Place in his two prior career starts, both at Saratoga. Note that Stroll to Victory will be getting Lasix for the first time. This will be also be Stroll to Victory's first race without having to compete against Bobby's Kitten.
RACE 9 - (F) The Davona Dale (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Onlyforyou (ML 2-1)
# 8 Stopchargingmaria (ML 9-5)
C’s
None
Onlyforyou and Stopchargingmaria form the uncoupled entry for Trainer Todd Pletcher. They are the only two runners in today's field with Graded Stakes wins on their resumes; as Onlyforyou (who is three-for-three lifetime) crossed the wire first in the Grade 2 Forward Gal Stakes, while Stopchargingmaria got her picture taken after both the Grade 3 Tempted Stakes and the Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes. However, there are question marks here, as this will be the first time Onlyforyou will be going around two turns; while Stopchargingmaria, in addition to the wide post, will be trying the Gulfstream Park main track for the first time (note that her works have been over at Palm Meadows). Yet despite the concerns, these two seem to be clearly above the rest of the field. We'll see if that's still the case later this afternoon.
RACE 10 - The Canadian Turf (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Unbridled Ocean (ML 10-1)
# 9 Bad Debt (ML 6-1)
# 11 Guys Reward (ML 12-1)
C’s
None
There looks to be a lot of front running types in this one, including most who are short odds on the Morning Line. So my focus here will be on those that I figure to be coming late (but hopefully not too late).
Unbridled Ocean, trained by Bill Mott and ridden by John Velazquez, has won both career tries over this turf course, both races which were run at today's distance. Bad Debt has done little wrong of late, and with a little more luck would be four of his last five. Joel Rosario will be on board today. Guys Reward won the Grade 3 Tampa Bay his last time out (at odds of nearly 15-1) showing the type of late kick that could get the job done today.
RACE 11 - The Fountain of Youth (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Commissioner (ML 3-1)
# 12 Top Billing (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
Commissioner, trained by Todd Pletcher, has won both of his starts since his debut, albeit be a combined margin of less than a length. Johnny V will be in the saddle today.
Top Billing, trained by Shug McGaughey, certainly has pedigree on his side, being sired by Curlin out of an A. P. Indy mare. Top Billing just misses by a neck of being a perfect three for three for his career. Joel Rosario, who was on board for Top Billing's last two events, gets the mount again today.
RACE 12 - Md $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Ringold (ML 4-1)
# 8 Dolan's Joy (ML 10-1)
# 9 Ghost to Ghost (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
Ringold took the Place at this level over this course at today's distance last time out. Dolan's Joy, sired by Kitten's Joy out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare, should show improvement over his debut, especially with the added distance. Ghost to Ghost has been in the Exacta in his two tries at this level.
OK; that's the analysis. We're playing it caveman style today, going with just "A's" and putting everyone on a single ticket; which looks like this:
All A Entries
$0.20 P6: 5,11 with 3,7,9,10 with 3,8 with 2,9,11 with 1,12 with 2,8,9 $57.60
Post Time for Race 7 is 3:31 EST / 12:31 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, February 15, 2014
2/15/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
"Accomplishment will prove to be a journey, not a destination." – Dwight D. Eisenhower
Race 6 - # 4 The Admiral (Final Odds 4.40) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Sweet Life - # 2 On the Backstreets (1.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Santa Maria - # 1 Iotapa (2.20) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Teacher Teacher (1.50*) - "A" Selection
The Admiral and Iotapa both won clear leading gate to wire, while On the Backstreets took the lead in the stretch and was also a clear winner; so there was little drama in the the first three legs. We were alive in the final leg to two horses: Teacher Teacher and # 9 Kid Rollins (2.30). Had Kid Rollins won the Pick Four would have paid $129.00 for fifty cents. But Teacher Teacher sped to the early lead and was never headed; for when it looked like she might be running out of gas late, Teacher Teacher managed to find more; and with tail switching she crossed the Finish Line three-quarters of a length in front of # 5 Itsabeautifulday (4.00) to give us our first Pick Four victory of 2013.
So when all was said and done, the correct Late Pick Four sequence at Santa Anita Saturday was 4 / 2 / 1 / 7 which paid $94.85 for a fifty cent wager. As we had it twice (once on our usual Crist-style tickets and once again on the ticket we played with On the Backstreets and Teacher Teacher singled) our play results in a Net Profit of $122.70. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 4 The Admiral (Final Odds 4.40) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Sweet Life - # 2 On the Backstreets (1.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Santa Maria - # 1 Iotapa (2.20) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Teacher Teacher (1.50*) - "A" Selection
The Admiral and Iotapa both won clear leading gate to wire, while On the Backstreets took the lead in the stretch and was also a clear winner; so there was little drama in the the first three legs. We were alive in the final leg to two horses: Teacher Teacher and # 9 Kid Rollins (2.30). Had Kid Rollins won the Pick Four would have paid $129.00 for fifty cents. But Teacher Teacher sped to the early lead and was never headed; for when it looked like she might be running out of gas late, Teacher Teacher managed to find more; and with tail switching she crossed the Finish Line three-quarters of a length in front of # 5 Itsabeautifulday (4.00) to give us our first Pick Four victory of 2013.
So when all was said and done, the correct Late Pick Four sequence at Santa Anita Saturday was 4 / 2 / 1 / 7 which paid $94.85 for a fifty cent wager. As we had it twice (once on our usual Crist-style tickets and once again on the ticket we played with On the Backstreets and Teacher Teacher singled) our play results in a Net Profit of $122.70. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/15/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
“No man who ever held the office of president would congratulate a friend on obtaining it.”
― John Adams
Hope your three day weekend has gotten off to a good start. Let's take a look at Saturday's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.
RACE 6 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Footstepsinbronze (Ire) (Morning Line 4-1)
# 4 The Admiral (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 3 Superlooper (ML 6-1)
# 10 Vegas Strip (ML 6-1)
# 12 Lord Lochinvar (ML 15-1)
Footstepsinbronze looked impressive in his debut, missing the Win by just a half length while earning the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this field. But that was charging down the hill, and there's no guarantee that form will transfer onto the main track.
Superlooper, one of three going for Trainer Bob Baffert in this contest had a troubled trip in his debut last month. The Admiral, another Baffert entry, earned his best career Beyer sprinting in his debut over the cushion track at Hollywood Park. After two tries around two turns The Admiral goes back to sprinting today. Note also that The Admiral will also be putting the blinkers back on, after a one-race experiment that saw him turn in his worst performance to date.
Vegas Strip, the third of the Baffert entries, is a first time starter by a sire (Harlan's Holiday) whose progeny win approximately 14% of their debuts. Lord Lochinvar is also a first time starter, being sent out by Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins approximately 31% of the time when sending out a runner for his career debut.
RACE 7 - (F) The Sweet Life $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 On the Backstreets (ML 3-1)
# 3 Susans Express (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
On the Backstreets won charging down the hill in her turf debut last time out, earning the best career Beyer in this field in the process. Susans Express also won her turf debut charging down the hill last time out in The California Cup Oaks. Kent Desormeaux, who was on board for that Win, gets the mount again today.
RACE 8 - The Santa Maria (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Ondine (ML 3-1)
# 5 Let Faith Arise (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Iotapa (ML 7-2)
# 4 Yahilwa (ML 30-1)
# 6 Golden Production (ML 6-1)
# 7 Stanwyck (ML 4-1)
Needless to say, the complexion of this race changed significantly with the scratch of Morning Line Favorite # 2 Fiftyshadesofhay (ML 5-2).
Let Faith Arise and Ondine took the Place and Show (respectively) behind Spellbound in the Grade 2 La Canada last time out, run over this main track at today's distance. As the Trifecta in that one crossed the wire within a half length of each other (with Fiftyshadesofhay in fourth, just a length behind the winner) I don't see any reasonable way of choosing one over the other.
Stanwyck took the Place in the Paseana, a head behind Golden Productions. It's possible that Stanwyck needed that effort off the layoff, and can be expected to improve today. Meanwhile that Win stretched Golden Productions streak to four, starting with the contest from which she was claimed for $40k; money well spent indeed. And while this will be Golden Productions first tray in Graded Stakes competition, her current winning streak has seen her cross the wire first in front of the likes of Halo Dolly and Winding Way.
Iotapa has yet to finish out of the money against Graded Stakes competition. Yahilwa is on the ticket because I'm using everyone else in this field.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Teacher Teacher (ML 2-1)
# 9 Kid Rollins (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Cassie's Harbor (ML 12-1)
# 5 Itsabeautifulday (ML 5-2)
Teacher Teacher's form looks much better if you focus on just her two prior tries on a fast dirt track: a Place and a Show finish against much tougher company, earning a Beyer in each that would get the job done today.
Normally first time starters running for a tag is a red flag (after all, if they were any good, why would their connections put them up for sale without seeing them race at least once?). But Cassie's Harbor was just a $1k purchase at auction, and her sire (Rockport Harbor) gets approximately 11% winners from debuting progeny; so this horse could be very well meant.
Itsabeautifulday gets some class relief while competing for the first time on a fast dirt track. Kid Rollins took the Show at this level last time out, and trades the ten pound apprentice jock for Tyler Baze.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,4 with 2,3 with 3,5 with 7,9 $16.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,10,12 with 2,3 with 3,5 with 7,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 2,3 with 1,4,6,7 with 7,9 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 2,3 with 3,5 with 1,5 $8.00
But I'm also going to toss in the following ticket as well, featuring two singles:
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,10,12 with 2 with 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 7 $15.00
Total: $67.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:16 EST / 3:16 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
― John Adams
Hope your three day weekend has gotten off to a good start. Let's take a look at Saturday's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.
RACE 6 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Footstepsinbronze (Ire) (Morning Line 4-1)
# 4 The Admiral (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 3 Superlooper (ML 6-1)
# 10 Vegas Strip (ML 6-1)
# 12 Lord Lochinvar (ML 15-1)
Footstepsinbronze looked impressive in his debut, missing the Win by just a half length while earning the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this field. But that was charging down the hill, and there's no guarantee that form will transfer onto the main track.
Superlooper, one of three going for Trainer Bob Baffert in this contest had a troubled trip in his debut last month. The Admiral, another Baffert entry, earned his best career Beyer sprinting in his debut over the cushion track at Hollywood Park. After two tries around two turns The Admiral goes back to sprinting today. Note also that The Admiral will also be putting the blinkers back on, after a one-race experiment that saw him turn in his worst performance to date.
Vegas Strip, the third of the Baffert entries, is a first time starter by a sire (Harlan's Holiday) whose progeny win approximately 14% of their debuts. Lord Lochinvar is also a first time starter, being sent out by Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins approximately 31% of the time when sending out a runner for his career debut.
RACE 7 - (F) The Sweet Life $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 On the Backstreets (ML 3-1)
# 3 Susans Express (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
On the Backstreets won charging down the hill in her turf debut last time out, earning the best career Beyer in this field in the process. Susans Express also won her turf debut charging down the hill last time out in The California Cup Oaks. Kent Desormeaux, who was on board for that Win, gets the mount again today.
RACE 8 - The Santa Maria (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Ondine (ML 3-1)
# 5 Let Faith Arise (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Iotapa (ML 7-2)
# 4 Yahilwa (ML 30-1)
# 6 Golden Production (ML 6-1)
# 7 Stanwyck (ML 4-1)
Needless to say, the complexion of this race changed significantly with the scratch of Morning Line Favorite # 2 Fiftyshadesofhay (ML 5-2).
Let Faith Arise and Ondine took the Place and Show (respectively) behind Spellbound in the Grade 2 La Canada last time out, run over this main track at today's distance. As the Trifecta in that one crossed the wire within a half length of each other (with Fiftyshadesofhay in fourth, just a length behind the winner) I don't see any reasonable way of choosing one over the other.
Stanwyck took the Place in the Paseana, a head behind Golden Productions. It's possible that Stanwyck needed that effort off the layoff, and can be expected to improve today. Meanwhile that Win stretched Golden Productions streak to four, starting with the contest from which she was claimed for $40k; money well spent indeed. And while this will be Golden Productions first tray in Graded Stakes competition, her current winning streak has seen her cross the wire first in front of the likes of Halo Dolly and Winding Way.
Iotapa has yet to finish out of the money against Graded Stakes competition. Yahilwa is on the ticket because I'm using everyone else in this field.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Teacher Teacher (ML 2-1)
# 9 Kid Rollins (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Cassie's Harbor (ML 12-1)
# 5 Itsabeautifulday (ML 5-2)
Teacher Teacher's form looks much better if you focus on just her two prior tries on a fast dirt track: a Place and a Show finish against much tougher company, earning a Beyer in each that would get the job done today.
Normally first time starters running for a tag is a red flag (after all, if they were any good, why would their connections put them up for sale without seeing them race at least once?). But Cassie's Harbor was just a $1k purchase at auction, and her sire (Rockport Harbor) gets approximately 11% winners from debuting progeny; so this horse could be very well meant.
Itsabeautifulday gets some class relief while competing for the first time on a fast dirt track. Kid Rollins took the Show at this level last time out, and trades the ten pound apprentice jock for Tyler Baze.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,4 with 2,3 with 3,5 with 7,9 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 3,10,12 with 2,3 with 3,5 with 7,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 2,3 with 1,4,6,7 with 7,9 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 2,3 with 3,5 with 1,5 $8.00
But I'm also going to toss in the following ticket as well, featuring two singles:
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,10,12 with 2 with 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 7 $15.00
Total: $67.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:16 EST / 3:16 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
2/12/14 Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six - Results
"I do the very best I know how - the very best I can; and I mean to keep doing so until the end." - Abraham Lincoln
Race 5 - # 5 Big Sam (Final Odds 4.60) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 8 Feelingbettertoday (3.30) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Henry's Song (3.70) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Great Cross (1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 City in Sky (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 10 Hit Squad (2.30) - "A" Selection
Henry's Song crossed the wire a neck in front of "A" Selection # 3 The Careless Cat (5.80) in Race 7; and that neck was the difference between us cashing and us tearing up our tickets. For those who prefer visuals, here's the Official Win Photo for Race 7 showing just how close we came to hitting today's Rainbow 6. Instead we end the day with five out of six; which pays absolutely nothing in the Rainbow 6.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow 6 sequence of 5 / 8 / 2 / 4 / 2 / 10 were rewarded with a $339.14 payout for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings. As there were multiple winners, there will be a carryover of $660,237 going into tomorrow's Rainbow 6 pool at Gulfstream Park.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 5 - # 5 Big Sam (Final Odds 4.60) - "A" Selection
Race 6 - # 8 Feelingbettertoday (3.30) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Henry's Song (3.70) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Great Cross (1.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 City in Sky (0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 10 Hit Squad (2.30) - "A" Selection
Henry's Song crossed the wire a neck in front of "A" Selection # 3 The Careless Cat (5.80) in Race 7; and that neck was the difference between us cashing and us tearing up our tickets. For those who prefer visuals, here's the Official Win Photo for Race 7 showing just how close we came to hitting today's Rainbow 6. Instead we end the day with five out of six; which pays absolutely nothing in the Rainbow 6.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow 6 sequence of 5 / 8 / 2 / 4 / 2 / 10 were rewarded with a $339.14 payout for their twenty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings. As there were multiple winners, there will be a carryover of $660,237 going into tomorrow's Rainbow 6 pool at Gulfstream Park.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/12/14 Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six - Preview
"The probability that we may fail in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just." - Abraham Lincoln
“Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any one thing.” - Abraham Lincoln
We've got a day away from the office, so why not have a little mid-week fun? Gulfstream Park's Rainbow 6 has a carryover pool of almost $600k; so let's turn our attention today to South Florida and take a swing at the big prize.
RACE 5 - Clm $20k N2L - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Big Sam (Morning Line 4-1)
# 6 Steel Guitar (ML 12-1)
# 8 Able Baker Charlie (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Trusted Choice disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out against more expensive and was eased before the finish line. Does the drop mean that he was injured? Well, keep in mind before you write off Trusted Choice that four starts back he was pulled up and had to be vanned off the track, only to come back less than three weeks later to take the Place with a career best Beyer Speed Figure of 82 (a number well above par for this class level).
Big Sam took the Show against more expensive his last time out. Big Sam is also one of just two in this field to have his solo Win come over this turf course.
Steel Guitar drops in for the lowest price tag of his career. Dylan Davis, who was on board for Steel Guitar's graduation, will be in the saddle again today.
Start Up has been in the Exacta both times that he's tried today's distance on the Turf. I expect Start Up to be the pace setter in this contest.
Able Baker Charlie is another in today's field dropping for the lowest sales price of his career. Able Baker Charlie's two prior turf outings were both five and a half furlongs in length; his breeding (as expressed by his Tomlinson Distance Rating) suggests that he'll appreciate going around two turns rather than just one.
Ginger Goose (GB) threw a change of pace his last time on the track, running on the lead for the first time in his career and leading by a length and half in the stretch before being caught late and losing by a length. It'll be interesting to see where Jockey Paco Lopez, who will be riding Ginger Goose for the first time, places this four year old gelding.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Kiss the Stars (ML 5-1)
# 8 Feelingbettertoday (ML 3-1)
C's
None
The last time Dance With Gio competed in an event where all the entrants were up for sale she got her picture taken. Kiss the Stars won at this level two back by wiring the field; she may get an ideal trip like that again today. Feelingbettertoday had a six race stretch last year where she won half and took the Place in the other half; a return to that form should get the job done today.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 The Careless Cat (ML 4-1)
# 7 Zindaya (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Henry's Song missed by less than a length in her debut last time out, albeit when in for a tag; Trainer Christophe Clement gets approximately 18% Winners when sending his charges out for their second start.
The Careless Cat returns to the track after after being on the bench for over half a year. The workouts have been well spaced. Presuming a normal growth pattern, The Careless Cat can be expected to significantly improve on the Beyer Speed Figure she earned last July.
Wickedness is a first time starter sired by War Front, whose progeny win approximately 13% of their turf debuts. Joel Rosario gets the mount.
Zindaya has taken the Place in each of her two prior career races, both at this level. She'll be running on Lasix for the first time today; Trainer Christophe Clement gets winners more than a fourth of the time when sending his runners out for their first time on Lasix.
RACE 8 - (F) Md $25k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Great Cross (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Big N Toasty has had no problem getting the early lead; her problem has been lasting until the wire. Perhaps losing the blinkers will get her to relax today.
Great Cross has taken the Show the last three times out against more expensive. She was sired by Kitten's Joy, so the breeding is there; and the quick turnaround suggests that she's ready to roll.
Showtime Samurai makes her second start off the layoff for Trainer Mark Casse, who wins over a fifth of the time with such. Showtime Samurai should appreciate both the added furlong and the step down the class ladder.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 City in Sky (ML 5-2)
# 3 Tough to Stop (ML 3-1)
# 4 Sensational Value (ML 8-1)
# 5 Over the Cliff (ML 8-1)
# 7 Who Is This Lady (ML 12-1)
# 8 La Chuchi (ML 6-1)
C's
None
City in Sky began her career two-for-two; but both victories were earned on off tracks. Likewise in her last outing, where she earned a career best Beyer over a track that was drying out. Overall for her career City in Sky is two-for-four when the track is wet, and oh-for-three when the track is fast. The weather forecast calls for a 20% chance of thunderstorms, so we have to be prepared if the rains should come.
Tough to Stop tries winners for the first time after graduating in the slop her last time out. Tough to Stop has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field, and today's conditions aren't as daunting as they may at first appear; for while this race is carded for open claimers, only one horse in this field (City in Sky) has more than one career Win.
Sensational Value was right on the lead her last three times out versus more expensive. Unless the skies open up, Over the Cliff will be making her first career start on a fast dirt track.
Who Is This Lady and La Chuchi have both shown the ability to come off the pace to win over this main track; as there is a great deal of early speed here, that ability may give them the pace edge that they need. Note that La Chuchi has finished in the Exacta four of the five times that she has competed on a fast dirt track.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $25k- Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Acquisition (ML 6-1)
# 3 Devious Maddy (ML 5-1)
# 10 Hit Squad (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Had she not been scratched, # 7 Bet On Kitten (ML 3-1) would have been an "A" selection.
Acquisition has been competitive against more expensive, and should appreciate the drop down the class ladder. Alonda Sky could be quickest of the bunch. Alonda Sky also possesses the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
Devious Maddy just missed by a neck of graduating her last time out. Note that was also her first try over a firm turf course.
Transformer makes her debut for Trainer Giuseppe Iadisernia, who has a .20 Winning Percentage (albeit in a small sample size) with such. A concern is the number of breaks in Transformer's public workout pattern; but her pedigree (sired by Rock Hard Ten out of a Dixie Union mare) deserves respect.
Hit Squad moves another rung down the class ladder, hoping to prove that the twelfth time's the charm. Hit Squad has been competitive against more expensive; the question is can she seal the deal?
OK, that's the analysis. Normally I comment only upon those horse that I'll be using; but since this is an East Coast track I had to begin writing this preview before finalizing my selections, whereas with the West Coast tracks I normally know my selections and then put the analysis down in writing. So we have one single, # 4 Great Cross in Race 8. We bought Race 9, hitting the very convenient "ALL" button; and we're not using any "C" selections. So putting it all together, we get one ticket as follows:
All A Entries
$0.20 pick P6: 5,6,8 with 2,8 with 3,7 with 4 with 2,3,4,5,7,8 with 1,3,10 $43.20
Total: $43.20
Post Time for Race 5 is 2:36 EST / 11:36 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
“Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any one thing.” - Abraham Lincoln
We've got a day away from the office, so why not have a little mid-week fun? Gulfstream Park's Rainbow 6 has a carryover pool of almost $600k; so let's turn our attention today to South Florida and take a swing at the big prize.
RACE 5 - Clm $20k N2L - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Big Sam (Morning Line 4-1)
# 6 Steel Guitar (ML 12-1)
# 8 Able Baker Charlie (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Trusted Choice disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out against more expensive and was eased before the finish line. Does the drop mean that he was injured? Well, keep in mind before you write off Trusted Choice that four starts back he was pulled up and had to be vanned off the track, only to come back less than three weeks later to take the Place with a career best Beyer Speed Figure of 82 (a number well above par for this class level).
Big Sam took the Show against more expensive his last time out. Big Sam is also one of just two in this field to have his solo Win come over this turf course.
Steel Guitar drops in for the lowest price tag of his career. Dylan Davis, who was on board for Steel Guitar's graduation, will be in the saddle again today.
Start Up has been in the Exacta both times that he's tried today's distance on the Turf. I expect Start Up to be the pace setter in this contest.
Able Baker Charlie is another in today's field dropping for the lowest sales price of his career. Able Baker Charlie's two prior turf outings were both five and a half furlongs in length; his breeding (as expressed by his Tomlinson Distance Rating) suggests that he'll appreciate going around two turns rather than just one.
Ginger Goose (GB) threw a change of pace his last time on the track, running on the lead for the first time in his career and leading by a length and half in the stretch before being caught late and losing by a length. It'll be interesting to see where Jockey Paco Lopez, who will be riding Ginger Goose for the first time, places this four year old gelding.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Kiss the Stars (ML 5-1)
# 8 Feelingbettertoday (ML 3-1)
C's
None
The last time Dance With Gio competed in an event where all the entrants were up for sale she got her picture taken. Kiss the Stars won at this level two back by wiring the field; she may get an ideal trip like that again today. Feelingbettertoday had a six race stretch last year where she won half and took the Place in the other half; a return to that form should get the job done today.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 The Careless Cat (ML 4-1)
# 7 Zindaya (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Henry's Song missed by less than a length in her debut last time out, albeit when in for a tag; Trainer Christophe Clement gets approximately 18% Winners when sending his charges out for their second start.
The Careless Cat returns to the track after after being on the bench for over half a year. The workouts have been well spaced. Presuming a normal growth pattern, The Careless Cat can be expected to significantly improve on the Beyer Speed Figure she earned last July.
Wickedness is a first time starter sired by War Front, whose progeny win approximately 13% of their turf debuts. Joel Rosario gets the mount.
Zindaya has taken the Place in each of her two prior career races, both at this level. She'll be running on Lasix for the first time today; Trainer Christophe Clement gets winners more than a fourth of the time when sending his runners out for their first time on Lasix.
RACE 8 - (F) Md $25k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Great Cross (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Big N Toasty has had no problem getting the early lead; her problem has been lasting until the wire. Perhaps losing the blinkers will get her to relax today.
Great Cross has taken the Show the last three times out against more expensive. She was sired by Kitten's Joy, so the breeding is there; and the quick turnaround suggests that she's ready to roll.
Showtime Samurai makes her second start off the layoff for Trainer Mark Casse, who wins over a fifth of the time with such. Showtime Samurai should appreciate both the added furlong and the step down the class ladder.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 City in Sky (ML 5-2)
# 3 Tough to Stop (ML 3-1)
# 4 Sensational Value (ML 8-1)
# 5 Over the Cliff (ML 8-1)
# 7 Who Is This Lady (ML 12-1)
# 8 La Chuchi (ML 6-1)
C's
None
City in Sky began her career two-for-two; but both victories were earned on off tracks. Likewise in her last outing, where she earned a career best Beyer over a track that was drying out. Overall for her career City in Sky is two-for-four when the track is wet, and oh-for-three when the track is fast. The weather forecast calls for a 20% chance of thunderstorms, so we have to be prepared if the rains should come.
Tough to Stop tries winners for the first time after graduating in the slop her last time out. Tough to Stop has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field, and today's conditions aren't as daunting as they may at first appear; for while this race is carded for open claimers, only one horse in this field (City in Sky) has more than one career Win.
Sensational Value was right on the lead her last three times out versus more expensive. Unless the skies open up, Over the Cliff will be making her first career start on a fast dirt track.
Who Is This Lady and La Chuchi have both shown the ability to come off the pace to win over this main track; as there is a great deal of early speed here, that ability may give them the pace edge that they need. Note that La Chuchi has finished in the Exacta four of the five times that she has competed on a fast dirt track.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $25k- Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Acquisition (ML 6-1)
# 3 Devious Maddy (ML 5-1)
# 10 Hit Squad (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Had she not been scratched, # 7 Bet On Kitten (ML 3-1) would have been an "A" selection.
Acquisition has been competitive against more expensive, and should appreciate the drop down the class ladder. Alonda Sky could be quickest of the bunch. Alonda Sky also possesses the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
Devious Maddy just missed by a neck of graduating her last time out. Note that was also her first try over a firm turf course.
Transformer makes her debut for Trainer Giuseppe Iadisernia, who has a .20 Winning Percentage (albeit in a small sample size) with such. A concern is the number of breaks in Transformer's public workout pattern; but her pedigree (sired by Rock Hard Ten out of a Dixie Union mare) deserves respect.
Hit Squad moves another rung down the class ladder, hoping to prove that the twelfth time's the charm. Hit Squad has been competitive against more expensive; the question is can she seal the deal?
OK, that's the analysis. Normally I comment only upon those horse that I'll be using; but since this is an East Coast track I had to begin writing this preview before finalizing my selections, whereas with the West Coast tracks I normally know my selections and then put the analysis down in writing. So we have one single, # 4 Great Cross in Race 8. We bought Race 9, hitting the very convenient "ALL" button; and we're not using any "C" selections. So putting it all together, we get one ticket as follows:
All A Entries
$0.20 pick P6: 5,6,8 with 2,8 with 3,7 with 4 with 2,3,4,5,7,8 with 1,3,10 $43.20
Total: $43.20
Post Time for Race 5 is 2:36 EST / 11:36 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, February 8, 2014
2/8/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 7 Beautiful Spirit (Final Odds 0.80*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The San Marcos - # 2 Vagabond Shoes (Ire) (2.70*) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Robert B Lewis - # 1 Candy Boy (2.30) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Trelawny (1.40*) - "A" Selection
When you go with four "A's" in one race, as we did in Race 6, having the 4-5 Favorite win is not the desired result. We were right about ten furlongs being a distance too far for # 6 Jeranimo (3.60) in Race 7; but we were wrong about Vagabond Shoes (Ire) ability to win off the bench; and it cost us. Likewise with our decision to religate Candy Boy to "C" contender status in the Robert B Lewis, who proved that being bred for synthetics does not mean that he can't win on dirt.
So we had 'em all; but we didn't have 'em all together. Had we made either Vagabond Shoes or Candy Boy an "A" selection rather than a "C" we would have cashed; but we didn't, so we're left with a pair of tickets each having three out of four winners; and, as you all know, those tickets pay just as much as those tickets that have no winners at all.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 2 / 1 / 9 were rewarded with a $57.95 payout for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/8/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Yeah, I'm pretty sure that I've run out of interesting things to say in these opening paragraphs (I understand that many of you came to that conclusion months ago). So let's just remark that we're taking a look at Saturday's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita, and get right to it.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Secret Memo (Morning Line 7-2)
# 5 Citizen Jane (ML 6-1)
# 6 Lil Cheyenne (ML 6-1)
# 7 Beautiful Spirit (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Secret Memo turns back to sprinting for Trainer Peter Miller, who has a .23 Winning Percentage when taking his runners from routes to sprints. Secret Memo broke her maiden at Santa Anita two starts back, making her one of just two starters in this field to have her solo win come over this main track. Agapito Delgadillo, who was aboard for that win, gets the mount again today.
Citizen Jane took the Show at this level two starts back, and was earning Beyers in the bullring at the LA County Fair that would get the job done today. Citizen Jane's ability to come off the pace should serve her well today.
Lil Cheyenne gets some class relief, having competed against open claimers in her last two events. I think it's fair to drop the effort three back as she was clearly off form. In fact, if you toss that October 3, 2013 race, along with the April 27, 2013 try versus state bred stakes company, you'll see that Lil Cheyenne's Beyer Speed Figures are remarkably consistent.
Beautiful Spirit has finished in the money in four of her six career starts. The Beyers Beautiful Spirit earned in her last two starts before her layoff are well within par for this level, and Trainer Jeff Bonde plays the claiming game well, winning a fourth of the time that his runners compete for a tag. But a concern here is that Beautiful Spirit's form reads as a need to lead type, and there are several front runners in this field.
RACE 7 - The San Marcos (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Slim Shady (ML 6-1)
# 7 Lucayan (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Vagabond Shoes (ML 9-2)
# 6 Jeranimo (ML 7-2)
# 13 Temeraine (ML 6-1)
# 14 Dubai You X Y Z (ML 6-1)
Slim Shadey (GB) won this event last year and two years back, and paid double-digits to Win both times. Lucayan (Fr) won the twelve furlong Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup last time out, and took the show behind Vagabond Shoes' Place in the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Classic at today's distance.
Vagabond Shoes (Ire) and Jeranimo are two that have proven that they can win at this level; but the layoff is a concern for Vagabond Shoes, while the concern for Jeranimo is the distance.
Tereraine won the Grade 3 Kentucky Turf Cup last Fall, and was just a half length behind Lucayan at the wire in the Hollywood Turf Cup. Tereraine is ridden by Gary Stevens and trained by Tom Proctor; the Stevens / Proctor combo has been winning well more than their fair share this meet.
Dubai You X Y Z has had a fine career, loves the Santa Anita grass (two Wins and a Place in three tries) and has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in today's field. But this is a huge step up the class ladder for Dubai You X Y Z, so it may be wiser to limit his usage to your vertical wagers.
RACE 8 - The Robert B Lewis (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Midnight Hawk (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 1 Candy Boy (ML 2-1)
# 7 Chitu (ML 7-2)
Midnight Hawk is a perfect two-for-two in his career, having taken the Grade 3 Sham his last time out. Midnight Hawk is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Mike Smith. The Morning Line of 9-5 seems unlikely; I expect the Final Odds to be closer to 4-5.
Candy Boy looked impressive taking the Place behind Shared Belief in the Garde 1 Cash Cal Futurity; but having Candy Ride (Arg) as his sire and an In Excess (Ire) mare as his dam suggests that Candy Boy can be expected to do better on synthetic surfaces than on real dirt.
Chitu is the "other Baffert" in this one; and, like his stablemate Midnight Hawk, is a perfect two-for-two lifetime. Chitu will have the advantage today of the outside post. Martin Garcia gets the mount.
RACE 9 - Clm $32k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Trelawny (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 1 Sharp Richard (ML 15-1)
# 7 Dreamcatcher (ML 5-1)
Had he not been scratched, # 10 Square Dancer (ML 7-2) would have been an "A" selection.
Trelawny won at this class level at today's distance over this turf course last time out. That win was Trelawny's second career win on the Santa Anita grass in four tries. The bullet work on Jan 27 suggests that he exited that race just fine, so there's no reason why Trelawny can't do it again today.
Sharp Richard is two-for-four lifetime at this distance (with one Show). Expect Sharp Richard to be positioned right behind the front runners entering the stretch. Trainer Matthew Chew does quite well in all the relevant stat categories.
Dreamcatcher drops in for a tag for the first time in his career, and has a late running style that should serve him well in a field with several front runners.
The scratch of Square Dancer in the finale coupled with our decision to make Midnight Hawk our single "A" in The Robert B Lewis (rather than using both Midnight Hawk and Candy Boy as "A" selections) means that today's investment is a lot less than what we're used to. Playing the selections Crist style (i.e., all the "A's" on one ticket, and then tickets with "A's" in three legs and "C's" in the other) should give you tickets that look like this:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,5,6,7 with 1,7 with 3 with 9 $8.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7 with 2,6,13,14 with 3 with 9 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7 with 1,7 with 1,7 with 9 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7 with 1,7 with 3 with 1,7 $8.00
Total: $32.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Secret Memo (Morning Line 7-2)
# 5 Citizen Jane (ML 6-1)
# 6 Lil Cheyenne (ML 6-1)
# 7 Beautiful Spirit (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Secret Memo turns back to sprinting for Trainer Peter Miller, who has a .23 Winning Percentage when taking his runners from routes to sprints. Secret Memo broke her maiden at Santa Anita two starts back, making her one of just two starters in this field to have her solo win come over this main track. Agapito Delgadillo, who was aboard for that win, gets the mount again today.
Citizen Jane took the Show at this level two starts back, and was earning Beyers in the bullring at the LA County Fair that would get the job done today. Citizen Jane's ability to come off the pace should serve her well today.
Lil Cheyenne gets some class relief, having competed against open claimers in her last two events. I think it's fair to drop the effort three back as she was clearly off form. In fact, if you toss that October 3, 2013 race, along with the April 27, 2013 try versus state bred stakes company, you'll see that Lil Cheyenne's Beyer Speed Figures are remarkably consistent.
Beautiful Spirit has finished in the money in four of her six career starts. The Beyers Beautiful Spirit earned in her last two starts before her layoff are well within par for this level, and Trainer Jeff Bonde plays the claiming game well, winning a fourth of the time that his runners compete for a tag. But a concern here is that Beautiful Spirit's form reads as a need to lead type, and there are several front runners in this field.
RACE 7 - The San Marcos (Grade 2) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Slim Shady (ML 6-1)
# 7 Lucayan (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Vagabond Shoes (ML 9-2)
# 6 Jeranimo (ML 7-2)
# 13 Temeraine (ML 6-1)
# 14 Dubai You X Y Z (ML 6-1)
Slim Shadey (GB) won this event last year and two years back, and paid double-digits to Win both times. Lucayan (Fr) won the twelve furlong Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup last time out, and took the show behind Vagabond Shoes' Place in the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Classic at today's distance.
Vagabond Shoes (Ire) and Jeranimo are two that have proven that they can win at this level; but the layoff is a concern for Vagabond Shoes, while the concern for Jeranimo is the distance.
Tereraine won the Grade 3 Kentucky Turf Cup last Fall, and was just a half length behind Lucayan at the wire in the Hollywood Turf Cup. Tereraine is ridden by Gary Stevens and trained by Tom Proctor; the Stevens / Proctor combo has been winning well more than their fair share this meet.
Dubai You X Y Z has had a fine career, loves the Santa Anita grass (two Wins and a Place in three tries) and has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in today's field. But this is a huge step up the class ladder for Dubai You X Y Z, so it may be wiser to limit his usage to your vertical wagers.
RACE 8 - The Robert B Lewis (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Midnight Hawk (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 1 Candy Boy (ML 2-1)
# 7 Chitu (ML 7-2)
Midnight Hawk is a perfect two-for-two in his career, having taken the Grade 3 Sham his last time out. Midnight Hawk is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Mike Smith. The Morning Line of 9-5 seems unlikely; I expect the Final Odds to be closer to 4-5.
Candy Boy looked impressive taking the Place behind Shared Belief in the Garde 1 Cash Cal Futurity; but having Candy Ride (Arg) as his sire and an In Excess (Ire) mare as his dam suggests that Candy Boy can be expected to do better on synthetic surfaces than on real dirt.
Chitu is the "other Baffert" in this one; and, like his stablemate Midnight Hawk, is a perfect two-for-two lifetime. Chitu will have the advantage today of the outside post. Martin Garcia gets the mount.
RACE 9 - Clm $32k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Trelawny (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 1 Sharp Richard (ML 15-1)
# 7 Dreamcatcher (ML 5-1)
Had he not been scratched, # 10 Square Dancer (ML 7-2) would have been an "A" selection.
Trelawny won at this class level at today's distance over this turf course last time out. That win was Trelawny's second career win on the Santa Anita grass in four tries. The bullet work on Jan 27 suggests that he exited that race just fine, so there's no reason why Trelawny can't do it again today.
Sharp Richard is two-for-four lifetime at this distance (with one Show). Expect Sharp Richard to be positioned right behind the front runners entering the stretch. Trainer Matthew Chew does quite well in all the relevant stat categories.
Dreamcatcher drops in for a tag for the first time in his career, and has a late running style that should serve him well in a field with several front runners.
The scratch of Square Dancer in the finale coupled with our decision to make Midnight Hawk our single "A" in The Robert B Lewis (rather than using both Midnight Hawk and Candy Boy as "A" selections) means that today's investment is a lot less than what we're used to. Playing the selections Crist style (i.e., all the "A's" on one ticket, and then tickets with "A's" in three legs and "C's" in the other) should give you tickets that look like this:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,5,6,7 with 1,7 with 3 with 9 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7 with 2,6,13,14 with 3 with 9 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7 with 1,7 with 1,7 with 9 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7 with 1,7 with 3 with 1,7 $8.00
Total: $32.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, February 1, 2014
2/1/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 2 Power Ped (Final Odds 5.70) - No Selection
Race 7 - The Las Virgenes - # 2 Fashion Plate (4.70) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Arcadia - # 9 Winning Prize (Arg) (2.70) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 14 Warren's Cliff S. (9.90) - "C" Selection
Sadly, our play ended early Saturday, as we had no part of Power Ped, who outmaneuvered our "A" selection, # 6 Brother Pete (1.10*) in the final turn and held on in the stretch for a clear two and a quarter length victory. Congrats to Jockey Flavien Plat, who did a fine job of riding to get the Win. Congrats are also due to Matt Carothers of TVG, who gave out Power Ped on air during the "Inside the Mind of a Horseplayer" segment Saturday morning. I had seen the segment, but I disagreed with Matt's opinion; as I believed that Power Ped's inability to finish in the money in his two previous tries against winners (both races having been run at today's distance of nine furlongs) coupled with the fact that Power Ped had finished behind Brother Pete the last time they faced off two starts back meant that my play would be better served by leaving Power Ped off my tickets. Well, as it turned out Matt was right and I was wrong; so hats off to him.
As long as I'm handing out congrats, congrats are also due to Jockey Gary Stevens for a fine riding job to get the win aboard Fashion Plate in The Las Virgenes. It was vintage Stevens, as the Hall-of-Famer grabbed the early lead and was never headed, crossing the wire a half length in front of "A" selection # 8 Streaming (1.00*).
Jockey Mike Smith did his best to take our "A" selection in The Arcadia, # 5 Regally Ready (5.20) gate-to-wire; but the seven year old gelding just didn't have enough in the tank at the end, and had to settle for Show. Finally, if you were astute enough in the finale to box our three "A" selections along with our one "C" selection in the Superfecta, you were rewarded with a $71.08 return on your $2.40 investment.
So not a good showing for the home team, as we couldn't get any of our "A" selections home, and we watched our play blow up right in the very first leg.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 2 / 9 / 14 were rewarded with a payout of $1,525.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/1/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
On the fiftieth anniversary of "I Want To Hold Your Hand" becoming the Number One single in the U.S., Santa Anita offers us a Late Pick Four where half the races are Graded Stakes. Why, yes, I am running out of things to say in these lead paragraphs; why do you ask?
RACE 6 - ALW N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Brother Pete (Morning Line 9-5)
C's
# 1 Tama County (ML 8-1)
# 3 Cervaro (ML 7-2)
# 5 Scorcher (ML 6-1)
Brother Pete has taken the Place his last three times out, all at this approximate level. None of the other entrants in this field has earned a Beyer Speed Figures in any of their last three outings equal to any of the Beyers that Brother Pete has earned in each of his last three races.
Tama County is a one-run closer that should have a nice setup, as there are several here that are expected to vie for the early lead. Tama County is also a reclaim, having been picked up by Trainer Edward Freeman last time out after having been claimed from Freeman two starts back. Cervaro, like Brother Pete, is trained by John Sadler, and should be charging late. Scorcher returns to SoCal after shipping out to Turf Paradise to pick up his second consecutive win.
RACE 7 - (F) The Las Virgenes (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Taste Like Candy (ML 5-2)
# 8 Streaming (ML 2-1)
C's
# 3 Arethusa (ML 8-1)
# 4 Artemis (ML 4-1)
Taste Like Candy (trained by Jerry Hollendorfer) and Streaming (trained by Bob Baffert) dueled all the way around the track in the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet back in December before Streaming pulled away to win by a length and a half; there's no compelling reason why that order couldn't be reversed today. Arethusa had a tough trip in the Grade 1 Starlet; if the top two grind each other down, Arethusa will be the one running late. Artemis, Hollendorfer's other entry in this event, showed improvement last time out when going from synthetic to dirt and from sprint to route.
RACE 8 - The Arcadia (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Regally Ready (ML 6-1)
# 8 Suggestive Boy (Arg) (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Procurement (ML 12-1)
# 3 Unbridled's Note (ML 8-1)
# 7 Tom's Tribute (ML 6-1)
# 9 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 7-2)
# 10 No Jet Lag (ML 4-1)
Suggestive Boy won this event last year, followed by a win in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile; but he hasn't raced since, so the eleven month layoff is a cause for concern. Regally Ready has the back class to compete at this level, and seems to have developed an affinity for this distance in his later years. The C's are everyone else, in what I expect could be a wide open affair.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Profire (ML 7-2)
# 8 Rob's Pal (ML 4-1)
# 13 Dehere is Gone (ML 5-1)
C's
# 14 Warren's Cliff S. (ML 6-1)
Profire makes the big drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks after just missing at the much higher level two starts back. Rob's Pal's form looks a lot better when you consider that his last time out, when he took the Place at this level, was also his first try on a fast dirt track. Rob's Pal should also be helped by the turnback in distance. Dehere is Gone could be the quickest of this group; in which case he could be getting his picture taken before the rest get rolling. Maybe the fourteenth time's the charm for # 14 Warren's Cliff S. Note that his best efforts have come with Alonso Quinonez, today's rider, on his back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 7,8 with 5,8 with 7,8,13 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,5 with 7,8 with 5,8 with 7,8,13 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,4 with 5,8 with 7,8,13 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7,8 with 1,3,7,9,10 with 7,8,13 $15.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7,8 with 5,8 with 14 $2.00
Total: $53.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - ALW N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Brother Pete (Morning Line 9-5)
C's
# 1 Tama County (ML 8-1)
# 3 Cervaro (ML 7-2)
# 5 Scorcher (ML 6-1)
Brother Pete has taken the Place his last three times out, all at this approximate level. None of the other entrants in this field has earned a Beyer Speed Figures in any of their last three outings equal to any of the Beyers that Brother Pete has earned in each of his last three races.
Tama County is a one-run closer that should have a nice setup, as there are several here that are expected to vie for the early lead. Tama County is also a reclaim, having been picked up by Trainer Edward Freeman last time out after having been claimed from Freeman two starts back. Cervaro, like Brother Pete, is trained by John Sadler, and should be charging late. Scorcher returns to SoCal after shipping out to Turf Paradise to pick up his second consecutive win.
RACE 7 - (F) The Las Virgenes (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Taste Like Candy (ML 5-2)
# 8 Streaming (ML 2-1)
C's
# 3 Arethusa (ML 8-1)
# 4 Artemis (ML 4-1)
Taste Like Candy (trained by Jerry Hollendorfer) and Streaming (trained by Bob Baffert) dueled all the way around the track in the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet back in December before Streaming pulled away to win by a length and a half; there's no compelling reason why that order couldn't be reversed today. Arethusa had a tough trip in the Grade 1 Starlet; if the top two grind each other down, Arethusa will be the one running late. Artemis, Hollendorfer's other entry in this event, showed improvement last time out when going from synthetic to dirt and from sprint to route.
RACE 8 - The Arcadia (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Regally Ready (ML 6-1)
# 8 Suggestive Boy (Arg) (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Procurement (ML 12-1)
# 3 Unbridled's Note (ML 8-1)
# 7 Tom's Tribute (ML 6-1)
# 9 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 7-2)
# 10 No Jet Lag (ML 4-1)
Suggestive Boy won this event last year, followed by a win in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile; but he hasn't raced since, so the eleven month layoff is a cause for concern. Regally Ready has the back class to compete at this level, and seems to have developed an affinity for this distance in his later years. The C's are everyone else, in what I expect could be a wide open affair.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Profire (ML 7-2)
# 8 Rob's Pal (ML 4-1)
# 13 Dehere is Gone (ML 5-1)
C's
# 14 Warren's Cliff S. (ML 6-1)
Profire makes the big drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks after just missing at the much higher level two starts back. Rob's Pal's form looks a lot better when you consider that his last time out, when he took the Place at this level, was also his first try on a fast dirt track. Rob's Pal should also be helped by the turnback in distance. Dehere is Gone could be the quickest of this group; in which case he could be getting his picture taken before the rest get rolling. Maybe the fourteenth time's the charm for # 14 Warren's Cliff S. Note that his best efforts have come with Alonso Quinonez, today's rider, on his back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 7,8 with 5,8 with 7,8,13 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,5 with 7,8 with 5,8 with 7,8,13 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,4 with 5,8 with 7,8,13 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7,8 with 1,3,7,9,10 with 7,8,13 $15.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 7,8 with 5,8 with 14 $2.00
Total: $53.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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