"The probability that we may fail in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just." - Abraham Lincoln
“Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any one thing.” - Abraham Lincoln
We've got a day away from the office, so why not have a little mid-week fun? Gulfstream Park's Rainbow 6 has a carryover pool of almost $600k; so let's turn our attention today to South Florida and take a swing at the big prize.
RACE 5 - Clm $20k N2L - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Big Sam (Morning Line 4-1)
# 6 Steel Guitar (ML 12-1)
# 8 Able Baker Charlie (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Trusted Choice disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out against more expensive and was eased before the finish line. Does the drop mean that he was injured? Well, keep in mind before you write off Trusted Choice that four starts back he was pulled up and had to be vanned off the track, only to come back less than three weeks later to take the Place with a career best Beyer Speed Figure of 82 (a number well above par for this class level).
Big Sam took the Show against more expensive his last time out. Big Sam is also one of just two in this field to have his solo Win come over this turf course.
Steel Guitar drops in for the lowest price tag of his career. Dylan Davis, who was on board for Steel Guitar's graduation, will be in the saddle again today.
Start Up has been in the Exacta both times that he's tried today's distance on the Turf. I expect Start Up to be the pace setter in this contest.
Able Baker Charlie is another in today's field dropping for the lowest sales price of his career. Able Baker Charlie's two prior turf outings were both five and a half furlongs in length; his breeding (as expressed by his Tomlinson Distance Rating) suggests that he'll appreciate going around two turns rather than just one.
Ginger Goose (GB) threw a change of pace his last time on the track, running on the lead for the first time in his career and leading by a length and half in the stretch before being caught late and losing by a length. It'll be interesting to see where Jockey Paco Lopez, who will be riding Ginger Goose for the first time, places this four year old gelding.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $16k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Kiss the Stars (ML 5-1)
# 8 Feelingbettertoday (ML 3-1)
C's
None
The last time Dance With Gio competed in an event where all the entrants were up for sale she got her picture taken. Kiss the Stars won at this level two back by wiring the field; she may get an ideal trip like that again today. Feelingbettertoday had a six race stretch last year where she won half and took the Place in the other half; a return to that form should get the job done today.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 The Careless Cat (ML 4-1)
# 7 Zindaya (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Henry's Song missed by less than a length in her debut last time out, albeit when in for a tag; Trainer Christophe Clement gets approximately 18% Winners when sending his charges out for their second start.
The Careless Cat returns to the track after after being on the bench for over half a year. The workouts have been well spaced. Presuming a normal growth pattern, The Careless Cat can be expected to significantly improve on the Beyer Speed Figure she earned last July.
Wickedness is a first time starter sired by War Front, whose progeny win approximately 13% of their turf debuts. Joel Rosario gets the mount.
Zindaya has taken the Place in each of her two prior career races, both at this level. She'll be running on Lasix for the first time today; Trainer Christophe Clement gets winners more than a fourth of the time when sending his runners out for their first time on Lasix.
RACE 8 - (F) Md $25k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Great Cross (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Big N Toasty has had no problem getting the early lead; her problem has been lasting until the wire. Perhaps losing the blinkers will get her to relax today.
Great Cross has taken the Show the last three times out against more expensive. She was sired by Kitten's Joy, so the breeding is there; and the quick turnaround suggests that she's ready to roll.
Showtime Samurai makes her second start off the layoff for Trainer Mark Casse, who wins over a fifth of the time with such. Showtime Samurai should appreciate both the added furlong and the step down the class ladder.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 City in Sky (ML 5-2)
# 3 Tough to Stop (ML 3-1)
# 4 Sensational Value (ML 8-1)
# 5 Over the Cliff (ML 8-1)
# 7 Who Is This Lady (ML 12-1)
# 8 La Chuchi (ML 6-1)
C's
None
City in Sky began her career two-for-two; but both victories were earned on off tracks. Likewise in her last outing, where she earned a career best Beyer over a track that was drying out. Overall for her career City in Sky is two-for-four when the track is wet, and oh-for-three when the track is fast. The weather forecast calls for a 20% chance of thunderstorms, so we have to be prepared if the rains should come.
Tough to Stop tries winners for the first time after graduating in the slop her last time out. Tough to Stop has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field, and today's conditions aren't as daunting as they may at first appear; for while this race is carded for open claimers, only one horse in this field (City in Sky) has more than one career Win.
Sensational Value was right on the lead her last three times out versus more expensive. Unless the skies open up, Over the Cliff will be making her first career start on a fast dirt track.
Who Is This Lady and La Chuchi have both shown the ability to come off the pace to win over this main track; as there is a great deal of early speed here, that ability may give them the pace edge that they need. Note that La Chuchi has finished in the Exacta four of the five times that she has competed on a fast dirt track.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $25k- Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Acquisition (ML 6-1)
# 3 Devious Maddy (ML 5-1)
# 10 Hit Squad (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Had she not been scratched, # 7 Bet On Kitten (ML 3-1) would have been an "A" selection.
Acquisition has been competitive against more expensive, and should appreciate the drop down the class ladder. Alonda Sky could be quickest of the bunch. Alonda Sky also possesses the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
Devious Maddy just missed by a neck of graduating her last time out. Note that was also her first try over a firm turf course.
Transformer makes her debut for Trainer Giuseppe Iadisernia, who has a .20 Winning Percentage (albeit in a small sample size) with such. A concern is the number of breaks in Transformer's public workout pattern; but her pedigree (sired by Rock Hard Ten out of a Dixie Union mare) deserves respect.
Hit Squad moves another rung down the class ladder, hoping to prove that the twelfth time's the charm. Hit Squad has been competitive against more expensive; the question is can she seal the deal?
OK, that's the analysis. Normally I comment only upon those horse that I'll be using; but since this is an East Coast track I had to begin writing this preview before finalizing my selections, whereas with the West Coast tracks I normally know my selections and then put the analysis down in writing. So we have one single, # 4 Great Cross in Race 8. We bought Race 9, hitting the very convenient "ALL" button; and we're not using any "C" selections. So putting it all together, we get one ticket as follows:
All A Entries
$0.20 pick P6: 5,6,8 with 2,8 with 3,7 with 4 with 2,3,4,5,7,8 with 1,3,10 $43.20
Total: $43.20
Post Time for Race 5 is 2:36 EST / 11:36 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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