2/15/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

“No man who ever held the office of president would congratulate a friend on obtaining it.” 

― John Adams

Hope your three day weekend has gotten off to a good start.  Let's take a look at Saturday's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.

RACE 6 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Footstepsinbronze (Ire) (Morning Line 4-1)
# 4 The Admiral (ML 9-2)

C’s

# 3 Superlooper (ML 6-1)
# 10 Vegas Strip (ML 6-1)
# 12 Lord Lochinvar (ML 15-1)

Footstepsinbronze looked impressive in his debut, missing the Win by just a half length while earning the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  But that was charging down the hill, and there's no guarantee that form will transfer onto the main track.

Superlooper, one of three going for Trainer Bob Baffert in this contest had a troubled trip in his debut last month.  The Admiral, another Baffert entry, earned his best career Beyer sprinting in his debut over the cushion track at Hollywood Park.  After two tries around two turns The Admiral goes back to sprinting today.  Note also that The Admiral will also be putting the blinkers back on, after a one-race experiment that saw him turn in his worst performance to date.

Vegas Strip, the third of the Baffert entries, is a first time starter by a sire (Harlan's Holiday) whose progeny win approximately 14% of their debuts.  Lord Lochinvar is also a first time starter, being sent out by Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins approximately 31% of the time when sending out a runner for his career debut.

RACE 7 - (F) The Sweet Life $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 2 On the Backstreets (ML 3-1)
# 3 Susans Express (ML 6-1)

C’s

None

On the Backstreets won charging down the hill in her turf debut last time out, earning the best career Beyer in this field in the process.  Susans Express also won her turf debut charging down the hill last time out in The California Cup Oaks.  Kent Desormeaux, who was on board for that Win, gets the mount again today.

RACE 8 - The Santa Maria (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Ondine (ML 3-1)
# 5 Let Faith Arise (ML 7-2)

C’s

# 1 Iotapa (ML 7-2)
# 4 Yahilwa (ML 30-1)
# 6 Golden Production (ML 6-1)
# 7 Stanwyck (ML 4-1)

Needless to say, the complexion of this race changed significantly with the scratch of Morning Line Favorite # 2 Fiftyshadesofhay (ML 5-2).

Let Faith Arise and Ondine took the Place and Show (respectively) behind Spellbound in the Grade 2 La Canada last time out, run over this main  track at today's distance.  As the Trifecta in that one crossed the wire within a half length of each other (with Fiftyshadesofhay in fourth, just a length behind the winner) I don't see any reasonable way of choosing one over the other.

Stanwyck took the Place in the Paseana, a head behind Golden Productions.  It's possible that Stanwyck needed that effort off the layoff, and can be expected to improve today.  Meanwhile that Win stretched Golden Productions streak to four, starting with the contest from which she was claimed for $40k; money well spent indeed.  And while this will be Golden Productions first tray in Graded Stakes competition, her current winning streak has seen her cross the wire first in front of the likes of Halo Dolly and Winding Way.

Iotapa has yet to finish out of the money against Graded Stakes competition.  Yahilwa is on the ticket because I'm using everyone else in this field.

RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 7 Teacher Teacher (ML 2-1)
# 9 Kid Rollins (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Cassie's Harbor (ML 12-1)
# 5 Itsabeautifulday (ML 5-2)

Teacher Teacher's form looks much better if you focus on just her two prior tries on a fast dirt track: a Place and a Show finish against much tougher company, earning a Beyer in each that would get the job done today.

Normally first time starters running for a tag is a red flag (after all, if they were any good, why would their connections put them up for sale without seeing them race at least once?).  But Cassie's Harbor was just a $1k purchase at auction, and her sire (Rockport Harbor) gets approximately 11% winners from debuting progeny; so this horse could be very well meant.

Itsabeautifulday gets some class relief while competing for the first time on a fast dirt track.  Kid Rollins took the Show at this level last time out, and trades the ten pound apprentice jock for Tyler Baze.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,4 with 2,3 with 3,5 with 7,9 $16.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,10,12 with 2,3 with 3,5 with 7,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 2,3 with 1,4,6,7 with 7,9 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 2,3 with 3,5 with 1,5 $8.00

But I'm also going to toss in the following ticket as well, featuring two singles:

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,10,12 with 2 with 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 7 $15.00

Total: $67.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:16 EST / 3:16 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo