Russell Baze Rides in 50,000th Thoroughbred Race

Friday, at Golden Gate Fields, Jockey Russell Baze rode Finish Rich in Nyc to a third place finish in Race 6.  The race marked mount number 50,000 for the 54 year old rider.  It's a milestone that no other North American jockey has reached.  It's over a thousand mounts more than the second place jockey on the all-time list, Laffit Pincay, Jr., who had 48,486 lifetime starts.

Some perspective on Russell Baze's career:

Russell Baze has more career thoroughbred wins than any other North American jockey.  Baze has over two thousand more wins than the second place jockey, Laffit Pincay, Jr.  Baze has approximately three thousand more wins than the third place jockey on the list, Willie Shoemaker.  Baze has over five thousand more wins than jockey Johnny Longden, the man who held the all-time record for career wins by a jockey until passed by Shoemaker.  Baze has more career wins than Jerry Bailey and Gary Stevens combined.

As reported in this Sports Illustrated article from September of 1996, Russell Baze got his first victory Sept. 16,1974, aboard Oregon Warrior at Yakima Meadows.  At the time of Baze's first win, Gerald Ford was President of the United States, Richard Nixon having resigned about five weeks earlier.  William O. Douglas, Potter Stewart, and Lewis Powell were all Supreme Court Justices.  Carl Albert was Speaker of the House of Representatives.  Current Speaker of the House John Boehner was twenty-four. Current Chief Justice John Roberts was nineteen.  Current US President Barack Obama was thirteen.  Vice-Presidential candidate Paul Ryan was four.  

When Russell Baze got his first victory, Hank Aaron was still playing for the Atlanta Braves, George Blanda was still playing for the Oakland Raiders, and Terry Bradshaw had not yet won his first Super Bowl.  Walter Alston and Al Dark would manage against each other in that year's World Series.  The Designated Hitter had yet to be used in a World Series game.  Major League Baseball had six fewer teams, as did the NFL.  The NBA and ABA had not yet merged; nor had the NHL and the WHA.  Wayne Gretzky was thirteen.  Barry Bonds was ten.  Alex Rodriguez had not yet been born.

When Russell Baze got his first victory, the Number One song on the Billboard Chart was "I Shot the Sheriff", performed by Eric Clapton.  Number Two was "(You're) Having My Baby", by Paul Anka; Number Three was "Rock Me Gently", by Andy Kim.  The Academy Award for Best Picture of 1974 went to The Godfather Part II.  Art Carney won the Academy Award for Best Actor.  Gunsmoke, Adam 12, Ironside, and Streets of San Francisco were airing first-run episodes in Prime Time.  The first Star Wars movie had not yet been released.  Tom Cruise was twelve.  Adam Sandler was eight.  Cameron Diaz was two.  HBO would not be two for another couple of months.  Leonardo DiCaprio had not yet been born.

When Russell Baze got his first victory, according to this site, a box of Kellogs Corn Flakes (18 ounces) cost forty-three cents.  Six twelve-ounce cans of Pepsi cost eighty-eight cents.  A Hershey chocolate bar (1.4 ounces) cost fifteen cents.  According to this other site, the average cost of a new house in the U.S. was $34,900.  The average cost of a new car was $3,750.  The price of a gallon of gasoline was fifty-five cents.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/25/13 GG R5 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

We continue to follow the saga of City Chapel, as we have since he was claimed by Owner and Trainer Victor Trujillo back in August for $4,000 out of a race in which City Chapel went to post at Final Odds of 29.8-1.  City Chapel made his seventh start for the Trujillo barn Friday at Golden Gate Fields, competing in a Claiming Race ($6,250 NW2L) run at a distance of eight and a half furlongs on the plastic main track.  According to  the chart of the race, City Chapel (Final Odds 3.6-1) "saved ground early, settled to the half, raced three wide to the stretch but went evenly through the final furlong" and finished fourth, three lengths behind the winner, Cheezy Breezy (3.9-1).

City Chapel's fourth place finish was worth $675 in purse money, bringing his total purse winnings for Trujillo to $8,925; not too shabby for a four grand purchase.  It should, however, be noted that City Chapel has yet to record a victory for the Trujillo barn. While the lack of victories does have the benefit of allowing City Chapel to continue to compete in the Non-Winners of Two Lifetime class, I think it's fair to say that Trujillo would much prefer seeing this gelding get its picture taken at the end of a race.  That would explain the recent class drops for City Chapel, even though the horse has shown the ability to finish in the money at higher levels.  But it appears that City Chapel's inability to lead the pack home is more a matter of psychology rather than physiology, as the horse seems to nearly always be close to the leader, while not being the leader, when it's time to pass under the wire.

And so we'll continue to follow City Chapel as he runs under the guidance of Trainer Trujillo, and watch how this story unfolds.  Will Trujillo continue to drop City Chapel in class in an effort the get this gelding into the Winners Circle? Or will Trujillo move him back up in class, content to simply collect the purse offerings from City Chapel's tantalizingly close to the winner finishes?

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/20/13 SA - Race 7 - The La Canada - Results

Willa B Awesome (Final Odds 11-1) went to the front of the pack, set the pace along the rail, lost the lead into the second turn, shifted to the outside in the stretch, couldn't regain the lead, but held on for third, four lengths behind the winner More Chocolate (5.3-1), with Book Review (1.4-1) taking the Place.  Full details can be found in the Equibase chart of the race; or, if you prefer, in the DRF version of events.  

Congrats to More Chocolate and her connections on winning The La Canada in her dirt debut, along with earning her first ever graded stakes victory.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/20/13 SA - Race 7 - The La Canada - Preview

Sunday's Race 7 at Santa Anita will be the 39th running of the Grade 2 La Canada Stakes.  The race is for four year old fillies and will be contested at a distance of eight and a half furlongs over God-made dirt.  Free Brisnet Past Performances are available here, while free DRF Past Performances (along with video analysis by a couple of guys who actually know what they're talking about) can be found here.

# 3 Book Review (Morning Line 7-5) three starts back won a state-restricted listed stakes at Belmont Park at today's distance by a comfortable four and a half lengths.  While the competition in that event wasn't much, the speed figure Book Review earned (whether you're using Brisnet's calculations or the Beyers provided by DRF) tops anything any of the other fillies in today's race have ever posted for a mile and a sixteenth.  In Book Review's last race (her first start over the Santa Anita surface and her first start for Trainer Bob Baffert) she won the Grade 1 La Brea Stakes; but since The La Brea was only seven furlongs in length, Book Review will get the full five pound allowance today, and will carry only 118 pounds.  

# 2 Lady of Fifty (ML 6-5) was the winner of the Grade 2 Bayakoa Handicap at Hollywood Park in her last start.  Two starts back she won the Palm Springs Handicap over this Santa Anita main track.  Lady of Fifty will carry top weight in today's field of 123 pounds.  She is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who trained Fleet Lady to victory in this event in 1998 (TRIVIA QUESTION: Which trainers have won the La Canada the most times?  Answer below.)  Like Book Review, Lady of Fifty is undefeated at today's distance.

# 5 Ubelongtomemissy (ML 15-1) will be making her first start today for Trainer John Sadler.  It took Ubelongtomemissy six starts to garner her first career victory, and that only after dropping into the Maiden Claiming ranks.  While Sadler does exceptionally well with horses his first time with (approximately 25% winners, with a positive ROI), it's fair to say that Ubelongtomemissy is outclassed in this field.

# 6 More Chocolate (ML 9-2) is Sadler's other entry in today's contest.  More Chocolate will be making her first start today while not on some California grass; but her works over the Santa Anita main track (especially the bullet at six furlongs on January 14) would indicate that surface change should not be a problem.  Jockey Garrett Gomez gets the mount today; note that Sadler and Gomez teamed up to win this event back in 2008 with Dawn After Dawn.

# 1 Open Water (ML 10-1) was sired by Include, who also sired the winner of last year's running of The La Canada, Include Me Out.  While Open Water is winless in stakes company, she has finished in the money four times in Grade 1 and Grade 2 events, including taking the Place behind Lady of Fifty in the Bayakoa.

# 4 Willa B Awesome (ML 8-1) has been out of the Exacta just once in her four career starts at Santa Anita, and just once in her five career starts on a fast dirt track.  The last time Willa B Awesome raced eight and a half furlongs on the main track at Santa Anita, she won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks at 13.6-1.  The last time prior to that Willa B Awesome raced eight and a half furlongs on the main track at Santa Anita, she won the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel Stakes at 11.1-1.  

Lady of Fifty and Book Review should both attract a significant amount of the wagering dollars in today's race; and rightly so, as they are the top contenders in this field.  But my selection here is Willa B Awesome.  She likes this track; she likes this surface; she has back class; and she has shown the ability to win graded stakes at long odds.  That's a lot of positives for a horse whose Morning Line odds are greater than the field size.

Post time for the La Canada is 3:35 PST; 6:35 EST.  Good luck to all.

ANSWER TO TRIVIA QUESTION: The trainers who have won the La Canada the most times are D Wayne Lukas (Lady's Secret in 1986; Family Style in 1987; Spain in 2001) and John Shirreffs (Manistique in 1999; Tarlow in 2005; Life Is Sweet in 2009) with three wins apiece.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

6/28/12 BHP Race 8 - Key Race - Update

Jockey Gary Stevens picked up his first victory since un-retiring, crossing the wire first aboard Branding in Race 1 at Santa Anita Saturday.  And with that, Key Race 6/28/2012 BHP Race 8, first noted here July 24, 2012, has now come back in full:

Executiveprivilege - WIN 7/14/12 BHP Race 4
Renee's Queen - 4th 7/14/12 BHP Race 4
Travesura - 5th 7/29/12 DMR Race 3
Beholder - WIN 7/22/12 DMR Race 6
Irish Presence - 6th 10/7/12 SA Race 7
Awesome Annie - WIN 7/28/12 DMR Race 3
It's Aine - SHOW 7/28/12 DMR Race 3
Branding - WIN 1/12/13 SA Race 1
Purple Prose - 4th 7/8/12 BHP Race 9

Quite a lot of talent in that field.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Road to the Kentucky Oaks - Update

Just a heads-up that the Oaks Prep Schedule at KentuckyDerby.com lists the Santa Ynez Stakes as a Grade 3 to be run Sunday, January 13, at Santa Anita.  The Santa Ynez is actually a Grade 2 this year, and will be run Monday, January 21.  Update your spreadsheets accordingly.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/11/13 SA R8 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

A new year; a new track; a new surface; a new jockey; a new class level; what will be the net result?

Paralyzing Eyes, the Bruce Jackson-trained filly that we've been following since her debut in June, made her first start of 2013 Friday.  It was her first career start at Santa Anita, and her first ever start on a fast dirt track.  Paralyzing Eyes also got a new rider for the occasion, as Jockey Orlando Mojica was on her back for the first time.  There was even a change in the tote board, as Paralyzing Eyes' odds dropped below 50-1 for the first time in her career, with her going to post at Final Odds of 14.5-1.

But the big story is that Paralyzing Eyes made what many call the biggest class drop in racing, going from Maiden Special Weights (well, state bred Maiden Special Weights) to Maiden Claiming.  For the first time in her career, Paralyzing Eyes ran with a price tag on her head, specifically $20,000.  And, whether it was the class drop, the new track, the new surface, the new jockey, or some combination thereof, Paralyzing Eyes did show improvement Friday over her previous performances.

But not much.

For the first time in her career, Paralyzing Eyes was able to beat more than one competitor to the finish line.  But that's pretty much it as far as the positives go, as Paralyzing Eyes crossed the wire eighth in the field of eleven, fifteen and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Warren's Gussie (8.0-1).  The full chart of the race, Equibase style, is available here.

So now we know that Paralyzing Eyes' connections are willing to put her in for a tag, and thus take a chance on losing her at the claim box.  Will they drop her further down the class ladder her next time out, in order to increase their chances of finally getting her that first win (while also increasing their chances of losing her to another owner)?  And just how many more starts will they give Paralyzing Eyes before retiring her to broodmare status?  I'll continue to follow Paralyzing Eyes in this blog, because (as I've written before) I find this type of story quite fascinating; hopefully, at least a few of you do as well.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Good Advice

April Boag was on board Walker Rd. in Race 5 at Golden Gate on Dec 30.  According to the chart caller, Walker Rd. (Final Odds 4.5-1) “was fanned seven wide on the first turn, tracked the pace while widest down the backstretch, remained five wide to the stretch but closed willingly through the final furlong” and finished fourth.

The next day the Golden Gate stewards reviewed the video of the race with Jockey April Boag.  Quoting from The Stewards Minutes to The California Horse Racing Board (bottom of page 5):

“Ms. Boag was advised to keep a straight course in the stretch and more important pick her head up so she can see where she is going.”

"Pick your head up so you can see where you're going" sounds like good advice that we all can learn from, even those of us not riding a thoroughbred around two turns in a race at Golden Gate.  

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/6/13 GG R5 - Horse Watch Follow-Up

City Chapel, the longshot claim by Trainer Victor Trujillo that we've been following for the past few months, made his sixth start for Trujillo Sunday in Race 5 at Golden Gate.  The race, originally scheduled to be run on some California grass, but instead moved to the synthetic main track, marked a couple of firsts for City Chapel while under Trujillo's care.  This was the first race that Trujillo would give the mount for City Chapel to Jockey Russell Baze.  Not so coincidentally, it was also the first race during this run that City Chapel would be the Post Time favorite.

Racing under the same conditions as his previous start (Clm $12.5k-$10.5k NW2L) City Chapel, according to the chart caller, "settled early two wide, eased three wide on the second turn, but did not respond."  City Chapel would cross the wire sixth in the field of eight, five lengths behind the winner, Besame Suances (2.3-1).  

This ends City Chapel's streak of four straight in the money finishes for Trujillo.  The sixth place finish was worth $100 in purse money, thus bringing the total amount of purse winnings by City Chapel since being claimed by Trujillo for $4,000 to $8,250.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/5/13 SA Late Pick Four - Results

Now that's the way to kick off the New Year!  There was drama, there was intrigue, there was Providence; and in the end, there was a winning ticket.

RACE 6

Our play almost died right in the first act, as # 6 Make Us Proud (Final Odds 12.5-1), a horse not on any of our tickets, grabbed the early lead and stubbornly held on, finally losing by only a half length to # 4 Lamm (1.5-1).  Since # 2 Porfido (CHI) (3.0-1) finished third, our one dollar ticket was dead; so winning would mean cashing just for fifty cents.  For the record, # 9 Quindici Man (5.2-1) finished fourth.

RACE 7

# 6 Coil (1.8-1), our only single, and competing in the final race of his career before heading off to stud duty, runs perhaps the most courageous race of his career, tracking # 4 Ultimate Eagle (2.1-1) all the way around the track before finally gaining the lead just before the wire to win by a head.  Incidentally, if you had played Coil in a $2 Double with our three horses from Race 6, your six dollar investment returned $12.60.

RACE 8

# 11 Power Foot chased throughout and was rallying at the end, but could only gain the Show, a little over three lengths behind the winner, # 5 Klisz, who won by a mere half length over # 9 Circle the Moon (16.9-1).  As for # 6 Reach a Decision; well, Reach a Decision never made it to the gate, being scratched by the track veterinarian just a few minutes before Post Time.  Under California racing rules, that means we get the Post Time favorite in his place; but who was the Post Time favorite?  The tote board after the race showed both # 11 Power Foot and # 5 Klisz at 5-2; but by a matter of forty cents on the dollar (2.9-1 vs 2.5-1) it turns out that we were on the winner.  Still alive with just one more race to go!  Incidentally, if you had played our two horses in this race with Coil in the Double, your four dollar investment netted you a forty cent profit, thanks to the Consolation Double of 6-6; while playing our horses in the first three legs in a one dollar Pick Three resulted in a net loss, as the Consolation Pick Three of 4 / 6 / 6 was only worth $4.60.

RACE 9

So here we go, the final race of the late Pick Four, and we're alive to three horses.  # 4 Pumpkin Pie (3.7-1) would return $82.85 for our fifty cent Pick Four play if she won; but Pumpkin Pie just didn't have it Saturday, and finished ninth.  The leader from the gate was # 9 Scary Ride (2.0-1); if Scary Ride was to hold on in the stretch, our fifty cent Pick Four would be worth $43.30; not bad for a Pick Four comprised of four Post Time favorites.  But Scary Ride couldn't hold on in the stretch, and was caught at the wire by # 13 Secret Genius (21.6-1), filling out a Pick Four that paid $559.55 for half a buck.  Incidentally, if you played our horses in the last three legs in a one dollar Pick Three, you collected a consolation 6 / 6 / 13 payout of $56.60.

Hall of Fame pitcher Lefty Gomez is often credited with the quote, "I'd rather be lucky than good."  We'll never know if Reach a Decision would have won Race 8 had he not been a late scratch; however, we do know that we would not have had the eventual winner, Klisz, had Reach a Decision gone to post.  It should be mentioned that we also would not have been on Klisz had just a few more dollars been bet on our other selection, Power Foot.  Note also that all four victories in Races 6 through 9 were by a half length or less; it doesn't get much closer than that.  But in the end, I think it's fair to say that the Good Lord was with us Saturday, as our ten dollar investment netted a profit of $549.55.  I hope you all had it with me.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

1/5/13 SA Late Pick Four - Preview

I hope you all enjoyed your holidays, and are (at least so far) having a Happy New Year.  As we head back to work, here's hoping that this year is our most profitable one yet.  To get the ball rolling, here are a few thoughts on Saturday's late Pick Four (Races 6 - 9) at Santa Anita:

RACE 6

# 2 Porfido (CHI) (Morning Line 4-1) won at this level ($25k open Claiming) two starts back, and won against tougher (Clm $32k) two before that.  Trainer Eoin Harty wins more than a quarter of his tries at the Claiming level.  As a curiosity note, Porfido is the only entrant in the field with a Tomlinson Rating above 300 for both Turf and TurfDist.

# 9 Quindici Man (ML 9-2) gets some much needed class relief, running with a price tag on his head for the first time since April 26, 2009.  There should also be enough early speed in this field to complement this seven year old's late running style. 

# 4 Lamm (ML 5-2) makes his first start off the claim for new trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who clicks at close to twenty percent on that angle.  Lamm just missed at this level his last time out, and lost by only a nose two back at a higher level.  Which, by the way, is Lamm's downfall: his tendency to hang and just miss.  In his nine career starts on the Santa Anita grass, Lamm has finished in the money eight times, with zero wins.  

RACE 7

# 6 Coil (ML 2-1), trained by Bob Baffert, rates the best of this Grade 2 field, provided he brings his best.  If Coil doesn't bring his best, this becomes a very competitive race.  

Consider the following chart of each entrant's most recent Beyer Speed Figure in a race on a fast dirt track, where the distance was either a mile, a mile and a sixteenth (today's distance), or a mile and an eighth.  To make it more interesting, we'll use # 5 John Scott's (ML 3-1) two most recent races fitting that criteria; and we'll use Coil's three most recent under those conditions.  

# 6 Coil (ML 2-1).....................8F.......11/24/12.............105
# 6 Coil (ML 2-1).....................9F.......10/1/11................99
# 1 Jaycito (ML 5-1)................8F.......10/21/12...............99
# 3 Tres Borrachos (ML 6-1)....8F.......10/21/12...............99
# 4 Ultimate Eagle (ML 5-2).....9F.......2/4/12..................98
# 6 Coil (ML 2-1).....................9F........7/31/11...............96
# 5 John Scott (ML 3-1)...........8F........11/3/12...............96
# 5 John Scott (ML 3-1)..........8.5F......10/13/12..............96
# 7 Bank the Eight (ML 8-1).....9F........5/1/10.................83

While Bank the Eight (also trained by Bob Baffert) looks out of his element based on the above chart, keep in mind that Bank the Eight is the only entrant in this field to have finished in the money more than twice on a fast dirt track, having done so five times in six career tries.

Again: at his best, Coil beats these.  If Coil's not at his best, then this becomes a chaos race that anyone can win.

RACE 8

# 6 Reach a Decision (ML 15-1) is a perfect two-for-two lifetime at today's eight furlong distance on the turf, along with being a perfect two-for-two on the Santa Anita grass.  Reach a Decision also figures to be quickest of this bunch out of the gate, meaning that he and Jockey Martin Garcia could turn this race into a game of "Catch Us If You Can".  As you would expect, there are a few red flags with this 15-1 shot: Reach a Decision hasn't run since being injured back in May; and in his six career starts outside the Claiming level since breaking his maiden, he's finished in the money just once.  

# 11 Power Foot (ML 4-1) drops into Allowance company after four straight stakes.  The last time Power Foot competed in a non-stakes race, he took the Show, less than two lengths behind My Best Brother, winner of the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby.

RACE 9

# 13 Secret Genius (ML 20-1) has a terrible case of seconditis: oh-for six with five Place finishes on a fast dirt tack; oh-for-six with five Place finishes at Santa Anita; oh-for-five with three Place finishes at today's distance of six-and-a-half furlongs; one-for-fourteen with seven Place finishes in 2012.  Common Wisdom will tell you to keep such horses out of the top spot in your horizontal wagers, while using in the back spot in your Exacta plays; but who can resist twenty-to-one on a horse that twice missed by less than a length at this class level over this track?

# 4 Pumpkin Pie (ML 6-1) has finished in the money twice in her last three starts, all at a class level a notch higher than today's affair.  Jockey Garrett Gomez, who was on board for Pumpkin Pie's only career win, gets the mount today.

# 9 Scary Ride (ML 5-2), trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is making just her third career start, despite being five years old.  Scary Ride won her debut in November by a comfortable nine lengths.  She has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field, and there's no questioning her bloodlines, being sired by Candy Ride (ARG) out of a Deputy Minister mare.  This will be Scary Ride's first career start on a fast dirt track.

So looking at the above, if we play the following $0.50 Pick Four Ticket:

RACE 6: 2, 4, 9

RACE 7: 6

RACE 8: 6, 11

RACE 9: 4, 9, 13

along with the following $0.50 Pick Four Ticket:

RACE 6: 2

RACE 7: 6

RACE 8: 11

RACE 9: 4, 9

The whole thing will cost us ten bucks.

Post time for Race 6 at Santa Anita is scheduled for 3:04 PST, 6:04 EST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo