I hope you all enjoyed your holidays, and are (at least so far) having a Happy New Year. As we head back to work, here's hoping that this year is our most profitable one yet. To get the ball rolling, here are a few thoughts on Saturday's late Pick Four (Races 6 - 9) at Santa Anita:
RACE 6
# 2 Porfido (CHI) (Morning Line 4-1) won at this level ($25k open Claiming) two starts back, and won against tougher (Clm $32k) two before that. Trainer Eoin Harty wins more than a quarter of his tries at the Claiming level. As a curiosity note, Porfido is the only entrant in the field with a Tomlinson Rating above 300 for both Turf and TurfDist.
# 9 Quindici Man (ML 9-2) gets some much needed class relief, running with a price tag on his head for the first time since April 26, 2009. There should also be enough early speed in this field to complement this seven year old's late running style.
# 4 Lamm (ML 5-2) makes his first start off the claim for new trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who clicks at close to twenty percent on that angle. Lamm just missed at this level his last time out, and lost by only a nose two back at a higher level. Which, by the way, is Lamm's downfall: his tendency to hang and just miss. In his nine career starts on the Santa Anita grass, Lamm has finished in the money eight times, with zero wins.
RACE 7
# 6 Coil (ML 2-1), trained by Bob Baffert, rates the best of this Grade 2 field, provided he brings his best. If Coil doesn't bring his best, this becomes a very competitive race.
Consider the following chart of each entrant's most recent Beyer Speed Figure in a race on a fast dirt track, where the distance was either a mile, a mile and a sixteenth (today's distance), or a mile and an eighth. To make it more interesting, we'll use # 5 John Scott's (ML 3-1) two most recent races fitting that criteria; and we'll use Coil's three most recent under those conditions.
# 6 Coil (ML 2-1).....................8F.......11/24/12.............105
# 6 Coil (ML 2-1).....................9F.......10/1/11................99
# 1 Jaycito (ML 5-1)................8F.......10/21/12...............99
# 3 Tres Borrachos (ML 6-1)....8F.......10/21/12...............99
# 4 Ultimate Eagle (ML 5-2).....9F.......2/4/12..................98
# 6 Coil (ML 2-1).....................9F........7/31/11...............96
# 5 John Scott (ML 3-1)...........8F........11/3/12...............96
# 5 John Scott (ML 3-1)..........8.5F......10/13/12..............96
# 7 Bank the Eight (ML 8-1).....9F........5/1/10.................83
While Bank the Eight (also trained by Bob Baffert) looks out of his element based on the above chart, keep in mind that Bank the Eight is the only entrant in this field to have finished in the money more than twice on a fast dirt track, having done so five times in six career tries.
Again: at his best, Coil beats these. If Coil's not at his best, then this becomes a chaos race that anyone can win.
RACE 8
# 6 Reach a Decision (ML 15-1) is a perfect two-for-two lifetime at today's eight furlong distance on the turf, along with being a perfect two-for-two on the Santa Anita grass. Reach a Decision also figures to be quickest of this bunch out of the gate, meaning that he and Jockey Martin Garcia could turn this race into a game of "Catch Us If You Can". As you would expect, there are a few red flags with this 15-1 shot: Reach a Decision hasn't run since being injured back in May; and in his six career starts outside the Claiming level since breaking his maiden, he's finished in the money just once.
# 11 Power Foot (ML 4-1) drops into Allowance company after four straight stakes. The last time Power Foot competed in a non-stakes race, he took the Show, less than two lengths behind My Best Brother, winner of the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby.
RACE 9
# 13 Secret Genius (ML 20-1) has a terrible case of seconditis: oh-for six with five Place finishes on a fast dirt tack; oh-for-six with five Place finishes at Santa Anita; oh-for-five with three Place finishes at today's distance of six-and-a-half furlongs; one-for-fourteen with seven Place finishes in 2012. Common Wisdom will tell you to keep such horses out of the top spot in your horizontal wagers, while using in the back spot in your Exacta plays; but who can resist twenty-to-one on a horse that twice missed by less than a length at this class level over this track?
# 4 Pumpkin Pie (ML 6-1) has finished in the money twice in her last three starts, all at a class level a notch higher than today's affair. Jockey Garrett Gomez, who was on board for Pumpkin Pie's only career win, gets the mount today.
# 9 Scary Ride (ML 5-2), trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is making just her third career start, despite being five years old. Scary Ride won her debut in November by a comfortable nine lengths. She has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field, and there's no questioning her bloodlines, being sired by Candy Ride (ARG) out of a Deputy Minister mare. This will be Scary Ride's first career start on a fast dirt track.
So looking at the above, if we play the following $0.50 Pick Four Ticket:
RACE 6: 2, 4, 9
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 6, 11
RACE 9: 4, 9, 13
along with the following $0.50 Pick Four Ticket:
RACE 6: 2
RACE 7: 6
RACE 8: 11
RACE 9: 4, 9
The whole thing will cost us ten bucks.
Post time for Race 6 at Santa Anita is scheduled for 3:04 PST, 6:04 EST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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