6/28/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"Any man can win when things go his way; it's the man who overcomes adversity that is the true champion."  - Jock Ewing

It's Hollywood Gold Cup Day @ Santa Anita, and there are four Graded Stakes on the card.  Unfortunately, there won't be an all-Graded Stakes Pick Four, even though the four are being run sequentially; however, all four will be a part of Saturday's Pick Six, for those who play that game.  As for us, we'll focus per the usual on the Late Pick Four.

RACE 7 - (F) The Senorita (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Clenor (Ire) (Morning Line 4-1)

C’s

# 4 Morning Fix (ML 5-1)
# 6 Sushi Empire (ML 6-1)
# 7 Famous Alice (ML 7-2)

Clenor (Ire) appears to be ready to advance beyond the form she showed as a juvenile, when she won back-to-back stakes.  Morning Fix has run well upstate, taking the Show her first time on the turf even though she was running above her conditions.  Sushi Empire began the year winning the Blue Norther Stakes, but that was her last visit to the Winner's Circle; her breeding suggests that she should do better.  Famous Alice has been in the Exacta in all three of her career starts on the Santa Anita turf. 

RACE 8 - The Gold Cup at Santa Anita (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Game On Dude (ML 4-5)
# 2 Fury Kapcori (ML 9-2)
# 3 Clubhouse Ride (ML 9-2)

C’s

# 4 Imperative (ML 4-1)
# 5 Salto Del Indio (Chi) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Majestic Harbor (ML 12-1)
# 7 Lideris (ML 20-1)

Just like in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, Post Position 1 at Santa Anita is not the place to be for ten furlong contests.  In addition, Game On Dude has developed into a need-to-lead type, and he'll have Fury Kapcori right at his side as soon as the gates open.  But Fury Kapcori put in a strong effort in the Grade 2 Californian, and made need more time to recover.  For that matter, Fury Kapcori may simply stumble out of the gate; in that case, Game On Dude could be long gone before the rest of the field gets started.  Likewise if the 'Dude should have trouble out of the gate, Fury Kapcori could be the one leading the field all the way around the track.

But if those two hook up, then the rest of the field has a chance.  Perhaps Clubhouse Ride can repeat his performance in the Californian, dropping in late to go past the front runners.  

But if Game On Dude and Fury Kapcori wear each other down, and Clubhouse Ride regresses off his effort in the Californian (and believe me, that not a very big but; as this scenario is quite possible) then this becomes a chaos race; hence the use of everyone else in the field as C's.

RACE 9 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Chelios (ML 6-1)
# 6 Back to Bako (ML 5-1)

C’s

# 1 Mr Lexis (ML 12-1)
# 7 My Friend Jimmy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Heat Flash (ML 9-2)

Chelios shares the same dam as Old Time Hockey, so he should do just fine his first time competing on some California grass.  Back to Bako took the Place last time out in his first try against open company.

The connections of Mr Lexis thought enough of him to run him twice at the highest level back in Peru; and note that he just missed by a neck in his second career start at being a Group 1 winner.  Expect My Friend Jimmy and Heat Flash to be charging late, so if this one is won by a deep closer, it should be one of those two.

RACE 10 - OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 American Pride (ML 5-2)
# 3 He's Had Enough (ML 6-1)

C’s

# 6 Parliamentarian (ML 8-1)
# 7 Final Step (ML 4-1)
# 10 Celebrity Status (ML 6-1)

American Pride earned a Beyer Speed Figure last time out well above the career best of anyone else in this field.  Even if the Bob Baffert trained American Pride should regress off that effort he should still be in the mix here.  He's Had Enough drops in class and looms as the best late runner in a field that shows a lot of early speed.

Parliamentarian flashed some early speed in his return earlier this month.  If Parliamentarian runs back to his effort against state bred company in March he'll definitely be in the mix.  Final Step comes back from an extended vacation for a trainer (Peter Miller) who gets approximately 25% winners with such.  Celebrity Status has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last two starts.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 1,2,3 with 4,6 with 1,3 $12.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,6,7 with 1,2,3 with 4,6 with 1,3 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4,5,6,7 with 4,6 with 1,3 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,2,3 with 1,7,8 with 1,3 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 1,2,3 with 4,6 with 6,7,10 $9.00

Total: $56.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo