10/14/12 WO - Race 10 - The Canadian International - Preview

With the Breeders' Cup less than three weeks away, I thought it would be a good idea for me to analyze a race that closely resembles the BC Turf races that I'll soon be handicapping; the idea being to get accustomed to looking at Past Performances which include several European invaders, and where all the combatants are of Grade 1 caliber.  Basically, I wanted a race where I could prep as a handicapper for the Breeders' Cup; one that I could examine, but not make a significant investment.  

For that reason, I decided to take a look at Sunday's 75th running of the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes (Race 10 at Woodbine).  The race is scheduled to be run at a distance of twelve furlongs over the (just outside) Toronto Turf.  Eleven horses were entered, but (as I write this) there has been one scratch: # 9 Al Khali (Morning Line 10-1).  

Since this is a DRF.com "Race of the Day", free Daily Racing Form Past Performances are available at the DRF.com home page, along with video analysis by Dan Illman and Mike Beer.  You can also review some insightful analysis into the race here.

Before I go further, this seems as good a place as any to direct your attention to this site: Save Canadian Racing.  If you're any fan at all of horse racing in Canada, you owe it to yourself to check it out.

Getting back to the race: 

#10 Imperial Monarch (IRE) (ML 3-1) has only one loss in his four career tries; that came in the French Derby, and the unanimous consensus seems to be that Imperial Monarch received a nightmare trip.  

# 6 Wigmore Hall (IRE) (ML 6-1) has two wins in two tries at this distance over this turf course; those victories coming last year and this year in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer (note that in both years, Wigmore Hall ran out of the money in the Arlington Million in his race immediately preceding the Northern Dancer; that could be a commentary on the different surfaces, or it could suggest that Wigmore Hall is better suited to races where the purse has fewer than seven digits to the left of the decimal point).

# 7 Reliable Man (GB) (ML 4-1) is winless in thirteen months and disappointed as the favorite in the Group 3 La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte his last time out.  Reliable Man is making his North American debut today, as are # 1 Lay Time (GB) (ML 20-1); # 2 Dandino (GB) (ML 8-1); and the above mentioned Imperial Monarch.

# 11 Air Support (ML 10-1) has competed only once in his career at the Grade 1 level, that being at this Summer's United Nations Stakes at Monmouth Park, where he took the Place.  This will be Air Support's first try at a mile and a half; and while his Tomlinson rating for Turf/Distance suggests that he should handle it, color me skeptical.

I'm currently leaning towards # 8 Joshua Tree (IRE) (ML 5-1).  I'm a sucker for prior winners of a race attempting to repeat, and Joshua Tree finished first (at 4.6-1) in the 2010 running of this event (he took the Place last year, at 11.45-1).  The commentary lines in the Past Performances show that Joshua Tree was either on the lead or close up early in each of his prior two starts, which suggests that he enters this contest in top form.

As with the upcoming Breeders' Cup races, no matter which entrant you land on in this field, you'll be betting on a quality horse; which makes going for price an excellent strategy.  Post time is scheduled for 5:44 EDT / 2:44 PDT; I'll try to have my play up before then, which I'll post in the Comments section.  As always, I look forward to hearing what you have to say; preferably here, though you may feel free to email me instead, if you're more comfortable with that method of communication.

Finally, a little history: Secretariat's last race was in the 1973 running of the Canadian International (then run at a distance of thirteen furlongs).  Below, courtesy of YouTube, is a documentary about that event.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo